Article: The Best Defensive Outfielders in Free Agency

[Linus]

I think Rasmus is the only choice because they have to sign somebody that can play CF, potentially anyway.  It boggles my mind that there are people comfortable going into next season counting on Hicks in any way, shape or form.  He has given no indication that he has figured anything out at the plate.  He has to start next season in Rochester until he proves he can hit at AAA which means we need a CF.  If Hicks finally gets it (which I hope he does) than either he or Rasmus can move to LF.

 

At this point, if I had to bet $50, I would say that Rosario has a better chance of making the club next year than Hicks.

[tobi0040]

I think Rasmus is the only choice because they have to sign somebody that can play CF, potentially anyway.  It boggles my mind that there are people comfortable going into next season counting on Hicks in any way, shape or form.  He has given no indication that he has figured anything out at the plate.  He has to start next season in Rochester until he proves he can hit at AAA which means we need a CF.  If Hicks finally gets it (which I hope he does) than either he or Rasmus can move to LF.

 

At this point, if I had to bet $50, I would say that Rosario has a better chance of making the club next year than Hicks.

 

This is just my speculation, but I think the Twins may hand Hicks CF or LF from April to the end of June.  One last look to see if he takes a step forward.  If not they cut the cord or hopefully make him a 4th OF/platoon in a corner. (.750 OPS against lefties).

 

I say that because he is former first round pick they have invested a ton in and really looked promising at one point.

[Riverbrian]

Rios is my choice.

 

If you can disinfect all the White Sox germs off of him.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I can probably be convinced that Rosario/Hicks/Schafer/Arcia will be a much better OF in 2015 than the guys the Twins had out there in 2014 (even though 75% of the "new" names were on the roster last year).

 

Even with that confidence that they can't possibly get worse, I still want to see the Twins be at least a little bit aggressive and acquire a player with good-to-great defense in LF that can hit better than Hicks/Schafer. I'm not asking for much, honest!

[Otto von Ballpark]

Interestingly, the thing that may prevent us from landing a high-upside FA pitcher -- lack of capable outfielders -- may be the thing that helps us land Rasmus.  Minnesota has to look like the closest thing to a guaranteed CF job in 2015, which might be important to him after losing such a job in Toronto.

 

Might it even be enough to land him on a reasonable 3 year deal, like Hughes last offseason?  Honestly, looking at our outfielders, there's probably a starting job for the taking over the next 3 years.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Interestingly, the thing that may prevent us from landing a high-upside FA pitcher -- lack of capable outfielders -- may be the thing that helps us land Rasmus.  Minnesota has to look like the closest thing to a guaranteed CF job in 2015, which might be important to him after losing such a job in Toronto.

 

Might it even be enough to land him on a reasonable 3 year deal, like Hughes last offseason?  Honestly, looking at our outfielders, there's probably a starting job for the taking over the next 3 years.

I agree with this - even if he's not in CF for all three years, there's room for Rasmus even if he hits like he did in 2014 - it would be an improvement over what the Twins have had (not including Willingham when he was healthy) in CF/LF for a long time.

[Lakeside]

IMO until we wait for Buxton, what is wrong with Hicks/Schafer in CF?  Hicks hit lefthanders at .279 with a .410 OBP and Schafer hit righthanders at .326 with an OBP of .390.  Somebody other than Gardenhire might notice this and figure out that is not too bad for a #9 hitter with speed and some defense.

 

Why spend $7-10 M on a stop gap for Buxton when you have those two at about $1.75 combined? 

 

I'm more concerned about Buxton being who we think he is than a Hicks/Schafer platoon.

[TheLeviathan]

IMO until we wait for Buxton, what is wrong with Hicks/Schafer in CF?  Hicks hit lefthanders at .279 with a .410 OBP and Schafer hit righthanders at .326 with an OBP of .390.  Somebody other than Gardenhire might notice this and figure out that is not too bad for a #9 hitter with speed and some defense.

 

Why spend $7-10 M on a stop gap for Buxton when you have those two at about $1.75 combined? 

 

I'm more concerned about Buxton being who we think he is than a Hicks/Schafer platoon.

 

Because:

 

1) Money isn't an issue

 

and

 

2) Schafer's production last year doesn't exactly jive with everything else he's ever done at the big league level.

 

Counting on those two as a platoon might as well come with a wish for another Sam Fuld to get cut around the middle of April.

[Lakeside]

Because:

 

1) Money isn't an issue

 

and

 

2) Schafer's production last year doesn't exactly jive with everything else he's ever done at the big league level.

 

Counting on those two as a platoon might as well come with a wish for another Sam Fuld to get cut around the middle of April.

And. . . how do you know that money is not an issue?

[TheLeviathan]

And. . . how do you know that money is not an issue?

 

Based on their revenues, expiring or traded contracts, likely arby raises.  It's a pretty reasonable assumption that this team has some significant budget room to work with.

[USAFChief]

Based on their revenues, expiring or traded contracts, likely arby raises.  It's a pretty reasonable assumption that this team has some significant budget room to work with.

Not to mention the owner said so.

[Lakeside]

I have a feeling money will be an issue, however, even if we say it isn't, Rasmus has only what I would consider 2 above average years since 2010. . that's about a 40% chance he will rebound.

 

Consider this, you cannot score if you don't get on base. . . Rasmus scored only 45 runs last season for a good offensive team because his OBP was only .287. . .when I learned the business anything under .300 was abysmal and to be avoided.  He strikes out in 33% of his plate appearances (not at bats. . plate appearances).  He stole only 4 bases all season. . . He doesn't exactly create problems on the bases like Hicks/Schafer can do. 

 

Rasmus only asset over the platoon mentioned is his ability to hit with some "pop", however his HRs have been steadily declining the last three years.

 

Someone will overpay for him because he is a "name" player.  But I am still of the opinion that Hicks/Schafer would score more runs in the line-up and play as good of defense at a fraction of the cost.

 

Money can then be used somewhere else.  My guess is that Terry Ryan will not go overboard on spending.  It is not in his genes.

[TheLeviathan]

I have a feeling money will be an issue, however, even if we say it isn't, Rasmus has only what I would consider 2 above average years since 2010. . that's about a 40% chance he will rebound.

 

Knocking Rasmus on past performance seems like a very strange take to have for someone campaigning for a Hicks/Schafer platoon.  Just sayin'.

Edited November 12, 2014 by TheLeviathan

[tobi0040]

I see a ton of similarities between Rasmus now and Hughes last season.

Both were first round picks. Both were top prospects (Hughes got up to 4 I believe. Rasmus was 10 in 2007). Both came up young. Hughes at 20 and Rasmus at 22.

Both showed flashes of being really good.

Hughes had a 3.03 and 4.19 era at 23 and 24 with good k rates

Rasmus had an ops of 859 as a 23 year old. He has had an ops plus over 100 in four seasons. His ISO was better than Miguel Carreras last year. His 162 game average is 24 hr and 29 2b

Both accumulated mlb average type numbers by the time they hit FA, despite being young (4.50 era for Hughes and 751 ops for Rasmus). Yet both were dismissed by their teams as busts and let test free agency

I would pursue the same type of deal that we gave Hughes but he would likely cost more money than $8M a year.  So 3-30 or 3-33 or so. If he would rather do the make good one year thing, I would give him that. Maybe you extend him mid season if he plays well or at minimum get a pick if he gets the huge deal he may be looking for next off-season. In the meantime I think he produces more than any others on this list, stabilizes our OF defense, and gives you a ton of upside like Hughes did.

Edited November 13, 2014 by tobi0040

[Lakeside]

Knocking Rasmus on past performance seems like a very strange take to have for someone campaigning for a Hicks/Schafer platoon.  Just sayin'.

I'm not campaigning for Hicks/Schafer as the end all to CF forever.  I do, however, believe that many people feel that Rosario in LF and Arcia in RF is not a bad option for this year and is part of the Twins future.

 

If that is the case, and Buxton is the future in CF, I just don't think there is value paying up to $10M for a stop-gap such as Rasmus.  I also believe that the Hicks/Schafer OBP and base-running will produce as many runs as Rasmus power.

 

I like speed on the basepaths ala the Royals this Fall.  Hicks/Schafer give you that and put pressure on the defense/pitcher when they are on the bases.  Paul Molitor played that way and I'm guessing that his team will be built around his philosophy and not like Earl Weaver's 3 Run HR philosophy.

 

Finally, I've always believed that it takes about 800-1000 at bats to truly judge a MLB hitter.  Schafer just hit that number and I don't think Hicks has 600 yet.  Go back and look at the early careers of Hunter, Cuddyer, and Gomez.  None of them really established themselves until they got to about 700-1000 at bats.  I always believed we gave up way too early on Gomez. 

 

Just my thoughts. . . I think our internal offensive production can be fine. . .I think any money we have to spend should be on pitching.

 

What makes the Hot Stove League great is that we all have different opinions on this stuff. . . .,maybe Rosario will never see a Twins big league uniform and be used for trade-bait. . who knows???.

[TheLeviathan]

Schafer is fine as a plan for fourth outfielder and Rosario should certainly have a shot, but signing no one ensures we have to rely on a bunch of sketchy bets rather than taking a chance on Rasmus like we did Hughes. Wasn't 2014 enough of this same lesson about going into the season without plan Bs? Our CF situation was a disaster for this same line of thinking.

 

I don't want that again, frankly it's unacceptable to go in that unprepared again.

[stringer bell]

Schafer/Hicks no. Schafer/RH hitting major league center fielder--okay. Aaron Hicks is still a prospect and he shouldn't be riding the bench for 110-120 games. He is not a good backup plan in the event that Schafer would revert to the less than replacement player he was in the NL. Hicks needs to go to Triple A and master it before he gets a last chance with the Twins.

The Twins need to acquire a plus-plus defensive center fielder to platoon with Schafer who could step in full-time if Schafer reverts to what he has been. If Hicks earns a promotion on merit, that is a bonus.

As for Rosario, I think his strong performance in the AFL has put him in the conversation. He would have a chance to compete for an outfield spot in spring training.

Edited November 13, 2014 by stringer bell

[Otto von Ballpark]

IMO until we wait for Buxton, what is wrong with Hicks/Schafer in CF?  Hicks hit lefthanders at .279 with a .410 OBP and Schafer hit righthanders at .326 with an OBP of .390

Never mind Hicks - if Schafer was actually capable of hitting righthanders to the tune of .326 AVG, .390 OBP over any significant sample, we wouldn't have an outfield problem.  (He also wouldn't have been on waivers in August, of course.)

[Otto von Ballpark]

Finally, I've always believed that it takes about 800-1000 at bats to truly judge a MLB hitter.  Schafer just hit that number and I don't think Hicks has 600 yet.  Go back and look at the early careers of Hunter, Cuddyer, and Gomez.  None of them really established themselves until they got to about 700-1000 at bats.  I always believed we gave up way too early on Gomez.

Some batters can improve after that number of PAs, yes.  But if a team gives every guy that many MLB PAs, no matter how bad they look (even in AAA in the case of Hicks) before they make a final judgement on them... well, you wind up looking a lot like the 2011-2014 Twins.

 

Also, Jordan Schafer is 28 years old.  Hunter, Gomez, and Cuddyer were largely finished products as hitters by age 25-26 (Cuddy was actually a league-average hitter from the get-go at age 23).  And I don't think any of them ever looked as thoroughly lost (from an AVG/SLG perspective) as Hicks has looked the past two seasons.

[Lakeside]

Lots of opinions, lots of options.

 

My point, I guess, on Hicks/Schafer, is that I would rather go with them and wait for Buxton if we all assume that he will be the CF of the future rather than be unprepared this season at the Starting Pitcher situation.

 

I don't have the stats in front of me, however, I believe that I heard the Twins were either first or second in the AL in runs scored the second half of the season.  Must be some production in that line-up and with a Molitor philosophy of being more agressive on the basepaths, I think we will score runs.

 

Taking Hughes out of the equation, the other starters - Gibson, Nolasco, Correia, Pino, Deduno, Swarzak, May, Darnell, Pelfrey, Milone, and Johnson - had a combined ERA of 5.22.  A starting staff ERA of 5.22 will not keep you in many games.

 

I also believe money will be an issue.  Will Ryan go up to $30 million "annually" in new free agent spending?  I'm of the opinion that that will be the high side if he does.  So the question is, "Where do we put that money -- outfield or starting pitching?"

 

Reliable starting pitching - if they will come to Minnesota - will cost $10-12 million per starter.  If we get two then there is not the money left for the price of a Rasmus type CF.

 

I'm all for having a plan but I would like to find solid starting pitching instead of relying on May, Meyer, and Millone (and Nolasco).  If they falter, what happens to the season?  In my opinion we can suffer a little in CF more than we can at SP.

 

Just my opinion.

[tobi0040]

Lots of opinions, lots of options.

 

My point, I guess, on Hicks/Schafer, is that I would rather go with them and wait for Buxton if we all assume that he will be the CF of the future rather than be unprepared this season at the Starting Pitcher situation.

 

I don't have the stats in front of me, however, I believe that I heard the Twins were either first or second in the AL in runs scored the second half of the season.  Must be some production in that line-up and with a Molitor philosophy of being more agressive on the basepaths, I think we will score runs.

 

Taking Hughes out of the equation, the other starters - Gibson, Nolasco, Correia, Pino, Deduno, Swarzak, May, Darnell, Pelfrey, Milone, and Johnson - had a combined ERA of 5.22.  A starting staff ERA of 5.22 will not keep you in many games.

 

I also believe money will be an issue.  Will Ryan go up to $30 million "annually" in new free agent spending?  I'm of the opinion that that will be the high side if he does.  So the question is, "Where do we put that money -- outfield or starting pitching?"

 

Reliable starting pitching - if they will come to Minnesota - will cost $10-12 million per starter.  If we get two then there is not the money left for the price of a Rasmus type CF.

 

I'm all for having a plan but I would like to find solid starting pitching instead of relying on May, Meyer, and Millone (and Nolasco).  If they falter, what happens to the season?  In my opinion we can suffer a little in CF more than we can at SP.

 

Just my opinion.

 

I guess the issue with standing pat is you start the year with an OF of Hicks, Arcia, Schafer, and probably Danny Ortiz.   Rosario and Buxton probably start the year in AA and both need a ton of reps given last year.

 

What happens if Arcia blows his knee out?  Yikes. 

 

I would love Rasmus or someone via trade.  But I think Terry signs a guy in his 30's on a one year deal like Morgan.

Edited November 13, 2014 by tobi0040

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I would love Rasmus or someone via trade.  But I think Terry signs a guy in his 30's on a one year deal like Morgan.

 

I'd even take that at this point considering he didn't even do that much last year or the year before to address the lack of depth in CF.

[tobi0040]

I'd even take that at this point considering he didn't even do that much last year or the year before to address the lack of depth in CF.

 

I would take that over nothing, just for depth.   But it would be a let down if we don't pursue Rasmus and/or options in the trade market.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Agreed - and really, the 30+ 1 year contract guy is only acceptable if he was paired with another acquisition of a starting pitcher that is better than a bargain bin pickup.

[TheLeviathan]

Lots of opinions, lots of options.

 

My point, I guess, on Hicks/Schafer, is that I would rather go with them and wait for Buxton if we all assume that he will be the CF of the future rather than be unprepared this season at the Starting Pitcher situation.

 

We can afford to not be unprepared at both.  This doesn't have to be an either/or.  

 

Your plan means we have 4 completely unproven guys for 2 spots that are vital offensively and defensively for us.  I saw what that looks like last year and I cannot fathom endorsing that again.

[davidc3915]

Morgan is a headcase.  With so many young players projecting to be on the Twins roster, I'd stay away from exposing someone like him to that clubhouse.  Rasmus has a ton of potential, but haven't we been hearing that for years now?  I like Aoki, and he would be a fine addition to the Twins, but I would guess at his age he seeks a team with a more immediate chance to compete. 

 

To answer the question at hand, I guess I'd say roll with the OF on the roster and concentrate on the rotation

[nicksaviking]

Who's got the most trade value in July?  That's who I want on a 1-2 year deal.

 

And I don't want to sign anyone to platoon with Schaffer.  If you can't find someone who can push Schaffer to the 4th OF spot completely, you might as well stay out of free agency all together.

[Otto von Ballpark]

As for Rosario, I think his strong performance in the AFL has put him in the conversation. He would have a chance to compete for an outfield spot in spring training.

I hadn't been following the AFL, so I just looked up the stats.  Rosario leads the AFL in AVG and SB, but his OPS ranks only 24th out of 64 batters, thanks to very few walks and XBH.  Without regards to park factors, that's about a 107 OPS+.  His OBP ranks 29th, his SLG 24th, and even his K% only ranks 26th.  And while the AFL features some top prospects, remember a lot of these guys are much more modest prospects like Kepler or Jason Adam.  Heck, even some of the top prospects in this league are pretty raw, like Raul Mondesi Jr (defensive-minded 19 year old SS prospect who just OPS'd .610 in high-A ball).

 

Rosario's walk rate appears to be second to last in the league, ahead of only the aforementioned Mondesi.  His isolated power ranks 47th, actually behind Mondesi.

 

Solid AFL performances can be encouraging, but an AFL performance would have to be pretty extraordinary to affect a team's offseason decision-making.  If Rosario wants to force his way onto the roster next spring, great, but Rosario shouldn't be a factor in our pursuit of a FA outfielder.  (Not to pick on you, I think you agree, just a general statement. )

Edited November 13, 2014 by spycake

[James Richter]

How they fill this position is the most crucial personnel decision of this offseason. If they get it right, they have the potential to upgrade half the roster with one move: LF + 12 pitchers.

 

Of the 13 guys who threw 30+ IP for the Twins last year, 11 had ERAs higher than their FIPs. That's a pretty strong indication that there's a systemic weakness in the defense that isn't doing the pitchers any favors. Almost all of the Twins' poor defensive ratings can be attributed to the OF. Until they correct that, I'm skeptical that any pitcher they bring in could be as successful as we'd hope.

 

Arcia's going to be out there again, and is probably going to be at least a -10 defender. Hicks and Schafer have thus far graded out as a bit below average in CF, but I'm sure either would be no worse than average in LF. The guy they bring in needs to be an obvious defensive upgrade over those guys. To me, that means a plus defender in CF. The best guy available is Peter Bourjos, who has a 19.9 career UZR/150 as a CF. That's more than enough to make up for Arcia, and with average at worst contributions from Hicks/Schafer in LF would give the Twins a slightly above average OF defense.

 

It seems that the Cards view Bourjos as a somewhat pricey 4th OF, even with their tragic loss of Taveras. I don't imagine the trade would cost the Twins too much, and the payoff for the pitching staff would be tremendous, whether or not Bourjos, Hicks & Schafer hit.

[tobi0040]

How they fill this position is the most crucial personnel decision of this offseason. If they get it right, they have the potential to upgrade half the roster with one move: LF + 12 pitchers.

 

The good news is we reached out to Torii Hunter on the first day.  So our priorities are in order. 

 

SARCASM