Article: Who's The Next Phil Hughes?

[Otto von Ballpark]

A risky assumption. Not everyone turns in a bifurcated outcome where they stink so badly that they can be cut quickly at minimal cost to the W-L record ("Minimal," if you ignore the ~6m price tag on FA wins), or, they bounceback totally a la Kazmir. A third possiblity, maybe the likeliest, is that they just kind of sputter along at mediocre-to-slightly below replacement level value for an extended time. Eg. Dan Haren, Time Linceum, and some of the other bounceback guys that were discussed last offseason.

It's not that risky.  Look at my examples again -- the Twins have repeatedly traded "sputterers" at the end of July or beginning of August in their last contract year.  In the case of Liriano 2012, we didn't even have a ready replacement, but we dealt him anyway.

[tobi0040]

It's not that risky.  Look at my examples again -- the Twins have repeatedly traded "sputterers" at the end of July or beginning of August in their last contract year.  In the case of Liriano 2012, we didn't even have a ready replacement, but we dealt him anyway.

 

In fairness, you are leaving out another one year deal.  He put up a 5.19 ERA and pitched 152 innings, then netted himself a 2 year extension. 

Edited November 11, 2014 by tobi0040

[Otto von Ballpark]

Right now you have three locks in the rotation (Hughes, Nolasco, and Gibson) and three other guys that need innings (Meyer, May, and Milone).  I am for giving these guys innings now over the 1 year thing.

Your three "locks" include two guys who need to improve fairly significantly from 2014 (Gibson and Nolasco), not to mention the other "lock" who is a year removed from a 77 ERA+, 5.0 IP/GS season.  There's a decent chance that one of those three will not be deserving of a rotation spot at some point during the 2015 season.

 

And the three other guys that "need innings", two of them posted ERAs over 7 in their Twins auditions in late 2014, and two of them saw their 2014 seasons end prematurely due to "inflammation".  And one of them has yet to pitch in MLB and just posted a pro season high of 130 IP.

 

If Hughes, Gibson, Nolasco, Milone, and the FA acquisition are all healthy at the end of spring training, pushing May/Meyer to the pen or perhaps AAA, that's a good problem to have.  If they are all still healthy and performing well after a couple months, that's an even better problem to have.  If Meyer and May are also healthy and performing well at that point, that almost guarantees a good bullpen if we want to break them in that way, and gives us rotation reinforcements down the stretch in case of injury or trade opportunities.  And it almost guarantees that no 2015 starts will go to Swarzak, Johnson, Pino, Darnell, Deduno types, which might feel like a bigger advancement over the 2012-2014 rotation quagmire than even last offseason's FA signings.

[Willihammer]

It's not that risky.  Look at my examples again -- the Twins have repeatedly traded "sputterers" at the end of July or beginning of August in their last contract year.  In the case of Liriano 2012, we didn't even have a ready replacement, but we dealt him anyway.

Sidney Ponson's 7 ERA or Jason Marquis' 8.5 ERA aren't sputtering. These are clear cases that fit the bifucated outcome theory. My point was that not every case is so clear cut. Correia and Liriano are two who fall into that third outcome and in both cases were traded after the team had played itself out of contention. That's the risk nobody seems to be considering. If Justin Masterson's mechanics are out of whack because his knee is bothering him, and he's throwing 90 mph instead of 93, and getting knocked around kinda sorta to a 4.7 ERA or something, those are the kind of performances that amount to a slow bleed over the course of a season. Edited November 11, 2014 by Willihammer

[Otto von Ballpark]

In fairness, you are leaving out another one year deal.  He put up a 5.19 ERA and pitched 152 innings, then netted himself a 2 year extension. 

I'm not going to defend the Pelfrey re-sign, but in the summer of 2013 there was zero need to dump him just to claim his spot.  We already had such luminaries as Pedro Hernandez, Andrew Albers, Deduno, Hendricks, etc. in the rotation around that time.

[tobi0040]

Your three "locks" include two guys who need to improve fairly significantly from 2014 (Gibson and Nolasco), not to mention the other "lock" who is a year removed from a 77 ERA+, 5.0 IP/GS season.  There's a decent chance that one of those three will not be deserving of a rotation spot at some point during the 2015 season.

 

And the three other guys that "need innings", two of them posted ERAs over 7 in their Twins auditions in late 2014, and two of them saw their 2014 seasons end prematurely due to "inflammation".  And one of them has yet to pitch in MLB and just posted a pro season high of 130 IP.

 

If Hughes, Gibson, Nolasco, Milone, and the FA acquisition are all healthy at the end of spring training, pushing May/Meyer to the pen or perhaps AAA, that's a good problem to have.  If they are all still healthy and performing well after a couple months, that's an even better problem to have.  If Meyer and May are also healthy and performing well at that point, that almost guarantees a good bullpen if we want to break them in that way, and gives us rotation reinforcements down the stretch in case of injury or trade opportunities.  And it almost guarantees that no 2015 starts will go to Swarzak, Johnson, Pino, Darnell, Deduno types, which might feel like a bigger advancement over the 2012-2014 rotation quagmire than even last offseason's FA signings.

 

It is hard for me to see a scenario where Hughes or Nolasco are pulled from the rotaiton next year.  Gibson maybe but I am guessing he has a very long leash. I also think he turned the corner.  I am not saying they all come up and have a sub 4.00 ERA, but I think they will get a significant amount of innings even if they don't have an ERA near that.

 

May was shelled in about 2-3 starts, but his numbers at AAA were on different planets than his 10 starts or whatever it was up here.  Milone does have a career ERA under 4.00 and I think Terry will want him to get innings for a look.  Meyer is frankly more talented than all the others except maybe Hughes.  He is also 25-26 years old. We may disagree on this one, but Terry may start the season with Pelfrey in hopes of salvaging that terrible contract.  I can't rule it out.

 

I am all for adding a very good starter via trade or signing if he is healthy, consistent, and has #2 starter potential.  I don't see any on that list.

Edited November 11, 2014 by tobi0040

[Otto von Ballpark]

Sidney Ponson's 7 ERA or Jason Marquis' 8.5 ERA aren't sputtering. These are clear cases that fit the bifucated outcome theory. My point was that not every case is so clear cut. Correia and Liriano are two who fall into that third outcome and in both cases were traded after the team had played itself out of contention. That's the risk nobody seems to be considering. If Justin Masterson's mechanics are out of whack because his knee is bothering him, and he's throwing 90 mph instead of 93, and getting knocked around kinda sorta to a 4.7 ERA or something, those are the kind of performances that amount to a slow bleed over the course of a season.

I didn't mean everybody in my list was a "sputterer" but there are a couple in there, which you picked up on.

 

Correia and Liriano got dealt in July or early August.  Liriano even got bounced from the rotation in May of that same year.  Why would those not be options for a sputtering Masterson?

 

And even then, sputtering Masterson would only be blocking someone if we had FIVE or more healthy starters better than him at that point.  You really want THAT scenario to be dictating our offseason strategy?

 

(Not to mention, if we have 5 healthy starters better than that, and our offense hasn't collapsed, we are almost certainly somewhere in the playoff hunt and likely one or more of those starting options could be fortifying our bullpen.)

[Otto von Ballpark]

It is hard for me to see a scenario where Hughes or Nolasco are pulled from the rotaiton next year.

Not hard at all: injury.  Heck, Nolasco was injured for much of 2014, to the tune of over a month on the DL and a ~67 ERA+ at midseason.

 

I am all for adding a very good starter via trade or signing if he is healthy, consistent, and has #2 starter potential.  I don't see any on that list.

Phil Hughes last winter wouldn't have met those qualifications.

 

The Twins last winter also tried to add another veteran starter for $30-40 mil guaranteed late in the offseason.  When you consider everything that's happened since then, improvements and injuries, and see our league-worst rotation IP and ERA ranks in 2014, I don't think the overall rotation picture has improved that much in the past 9 months.

 

Considering the Twins failed to land such a starter at $30-40 mil late last offseason (even willing to surrender a pick for Ervin Santana), your preference would seem to be another Nolasco-type guarantee ($50 mil or more) or standing pat.  I really don't see the harm in the third choice of taking another shot at a Hughes type performance for a modest one-year FA outlay (as reflected in the title and subject of this article )

[tobi0040]

Not hard at all: injury.  Heck, Nolasco was injured for much of 2014, to the tune of over a month on the DL and a ~67 ERA+ at midseason.

 

Phil Hughes last winter wouldn't have met those qualifications.

 

The Twins last winter also tried to add another veteran starter for $30-40 mil guaranteed late in the offseason.  When you consider everything that's happened since then, improvements and injuries, and see our league-worst rotation IP and ERA ranks in 2014, I don't think the overall rotation picture has improved that much in the past 9 months.

 

Considering the Twins failed to land such a starter at $30-40 mil late last offseason (even willing to surrender a pick for Ervin Santana), your preference would seem to be another Nolasco-type guarantee ($50 mil or more) or standing pat.  I really don't see the harm in the third choice of taking another shot at a Hughes type performance for a modest one-year FA outlay (as reflected in the title and subject of this article )

 

I disagree that Hughes would not meet the description.  outside of yankee stadium he was pretty consistent, an ERA just over 4.00.  Much better than Nolasco's 4.37.  He was healthy, he was young, he had good stuff, he was a former top prospect.  The Yankee stadium part was being removed from the equation.

 

I think we should talk through what we are disagreeing about.  I am not adamently against adding a pitcher.  Just not one from that list.  If we want to sign one of the top four free agents or explore a trade that is great.  I just would rather see Meyer and May start in the rotation over a guy like Brett Anderson, or Villaneuva.  The overwhelming likelihood of most of those guys is that they will continue to stink or be hurt here, while taking innings from someone.  I don't view any as a candidate for extension even if they pitched well given their track record.

 

Edited November 11, 2014 by tobi0040

[Willihammer]

Correia and Liriano got dealt in July or early August.  Liriano even got bounced from the rotation in May of that same year.  Why would those not be options for a sputtering Masterson?

How about the DL?

 

Players don't like to pipe up when they're injured, we know this. We see it every year across the league. Heck Masterson didn't hit the DL til July - 19 starts in. This notion that if a guy is going to drop cleanly off the depth chart before the team falls out of contention seems ungrounded in how these things actually play out.

 

You seem to think the Twins are an exception but we know of at least three players - Colabello, Nolasco, and Peflrey who logged a bunch of playing time while they were hurt just last year. These guys are competitive, they want to play. Certainly a guy on a one year make good contract is going to want to play too.

[Dantes929]

If I were a pitcher, especially one that wanted to have  a great rebound year I would not come to the Twins and it would not be because of their record but because of their outfield defense.   Hughes overcame it for one year and I hope and expect them to get much better in 2 or three years with Buxton and maybe Rosario to add a lot of speed so a one year deal would not appeal to me here

[diehardtwinsfan]

If they want the reclamation project, I'd say Masterson or Anderson. I don't see those guys being too thrilled about that, as they are competing with Millone and Pelfrey for that spot. I don't have a problem calling those two 'sunk costs', but that is not a reasonable thing to ask either.

 

That said, with Meyer, Berrios, Darnell, and Martin knocking on the door, I think the Twins keep that spot open. Gibson and May should improve on their own, and I fully expect a bounceback for Nolasco, especially if his defense improves.

 

Believe it or not, I think this team is a lot closer to competing than people think.

[bird]

I keep reading that Hughes, Gibson, and Nolasco are locks for the rotation. Then I painfully recall when Liriano, Baker, and Pavano were locks for the rotation.

 

Yes, we now have some depth, unlike back then, but what's so risky about taking a shot with Anderson, for example? As I recall, in the Liriano, Baker, Pavano season, all five starters went down with injuries for extended periods.

 

Stockpile the guys and sort through the congestion.

[tobi0040]

I keep reading that Hughes, Gibson, and Nolasco are locks for the oration. Then I painfully recall when Liriano, Baker, and Pavano were locks for the rotation.

 

Yes, we now have some depth, unlike back then, but what's so risky about taking a shot with Anderson, for example? As I recall, in the Liriano, Baker, Pavano season, all five starters went down with injuries for extended periods.

 

Stockpile the guys and sort through the congestion.

 

It would be nicer to have a congestion of good pitchers. That is my issue with this list.

[Trevor0333]

I don't think it'd be the worst idea to start Meyer in a relief role. That shoulder is worrisome. Anderson is the guy I'd go hard after & try to get on a 3 year from 25-30.

 

LA wont just take Nolasco alone with Friedman at the helm without tossing a bone in with him like Escobar.

 

I'd love to see a Hughes/Anderson/Gibson/May/Meyer with Berrios pushing for next in line.

[tobi0040]

Anderson is the guy I'd go hard after & try to get on a 3 year from 25-30.

3 years and 25-30m for Brett Anderson?

 

IP by Year

 

2009  175 IP

2010  112 IP

2011    83 IP

2012    35 IP

2013    44 IP

2014    43 IP

Edited November 13, 2014 by tobi0040