Buxton scouting report from BP

[gunnarthor]

Some good news here.  His ceiling and scouting reports still look very good

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25001

 

"The 2014 season wasn't Byron Buxton's year. He spent time on the disabled list with multiple wrist injuries and a concussion sustained in an outfield collision in his first game at Double-A. He went to the AFL looking to make up for lost time. While his AFL season was also cut short after he dislocated the middle finger on his left hand, he first proved that his elite tools were intact. More importantly, his potential impact to the Twins remains practically unchanged, other than a year delay in his timeline. The Twins enter the offseason with a murky outfield picture, but Buxton’s lost developmental year inhibits his ability to take advantage of the opportunity—though a premium athlete like Buxton could hold his own while taking his lumps and learning hard lessons at the major-league level. He was already expected to open 2015 in the minors, at least for financial reasons, but his loss of development time may necessitate spending the entire 2015 season there. The tools he showcased in the AFL were as advertised: plus-plus bat speed with a loose swing with a quick-twitch trigger; an 80 runner in center with a plus arm and plus accuracy. One of the highlights of the AFL was his stolen base off of Rays C Justin O'Connor, who popped a 1.84 attempting but couldn’t throw Buxton out. The takeaway from his brief AFL stint is that in spite of the injuries the tools remain intact—it's just a question of how well they'll play at the highest level of competition."

[bird]

Our tendency is to overrate our own prospects. I'm wondering if we haven't trended toward underrating Buxton, and also Sano, in large part because we haven't had the luxury of salivating over their box scores.

[MileHighTwinsFan]

Something tells me we will see Buxton next year for no other reason than to utilize his speed both defensively and offensively.   The bat may need time to adjust - but he could make an impact in the field and on the basepaths very soon.

 

While Molitor won't necessarily clamor for him to be promoted, my guess is that he is the centerpiece of his team philosophy. Short of a major set back - I really think we will see him next year.

[gunnarthor]

Something tells me we will see Buxton next year for no other reason than to utilize his speed both defensively and offensively.   The bat may need time to adjust - but he could make an impact in the field and on the basepaths very soon.

 

While Molitor won't necessarily clamor for him to be promoted, my guess is that he is the centerpiece of his team philosophy. Short of a major set back - I really think we will see him next year.

Yeah, I tend to agree. I think he starts the season in AA.  He might struggle out of the gate but by June I think it'll all be clicking for him (so long as he isn't hurt).  After that, he could be called up at anytime.

[TheLeviathan]

Good stuff but I couldn't help but have my biggest takeaway from the Russell write-up.  

 

So much prospect scouting from national pundits is based on a ridiculously small sample size and sometimes not even from game situations.  (Russell's defense)  I really think most fans don't realize how minimal the information is on most of these guys.

 

I'm sure, in-house, we have much more, but I'm just strictly talking national scouts.

[nicksaviking]

Molitor was always considered one of, if not the premeir instructor in the organizatoin.  Now that he's in Minneapolis full time, I wonder if the club will be more inclined to promote young guys earlier if for no other reason than for their best instructor to develop them.  There's no longer the option of sending him to Ft. Myers for a week to work with specific players.

 

Santana and Poloanco got unexpected promotions last year.  The club was in a bind when they called them up, but I wonder if the chance to work with Molitor weighed on those decisions at all.

[Steven Buhr]

Molitor was always considered one of, if not the premeir instructor in the organizatoin.  Now that he's in Minneapolis full time, I wonder if the club will be more inclined to promote young guys earlier if for no other reason than for their best instructor to develop them.  There's no longer the option of sending him to Ft. Myers for a week to work with specific players.

 

Santana and Poloanco got unexpected promotions last year.  The club was in a bind when they called them up, but I wonder if the chance to work with Molitor weighed on those decisions at all.

At the very least, it might get Buxton an extra week or two in big league camp this spring, before he gets shipped across the parking lot.

 

Not shocking, I realize, but I know Molitor really liked Buxton when we talked about him in 2013 (who didn't, though?). I just suspect Molitor will be much more willng/anxious to see the young uber-prospects promoted than Gardenhire seemingly was, and much less intrigued with bringing back aging former stars. Molitor loves teachng. Never got the sense Garenhire enjoyed that aspect so much.

[jokin]

Our tendency is to overrate our own prospects. I'm wondering if we haven't trended toward underrating Buxton, and also Sano, in large part because we haven't had the luxury of salivating over their box scores.

 

I don't think so... they're rated very high for multiple good reasons beyond box scores.

[Mike Sixel]

Given the number of people saying Sano and Buxton will be ELITE STARS in MN, maybe starting next year, and that they should not be traded for anyone under any circumstances.....i don't think this board is filled with people underestimating them. I'd guess they are overdoing it.

[jokin]

Given the number of people saying Sano and Buxton will be ELITE STARS in MN, maybe starting next year, and that they should not be traded for anyone under any circumstances.....i don't think this board is filled with people underestimating them. I'd guess they are overdoing it.

 

I think most realistic fans acknowledge that both players are beyond a usual top prospect, more like SPECIAL TALENTS who could become ELITE STARS.   In my mind that translates to guys you only consider trading for premier major league talent. 

[Steven Buhr]

Keep in mind, it's not just Twins fans hyping Buxton and Sano as prospects. Virtually every national source for prospect information has had them at or near the top of their lists for a couple of years now. Others in the organization, yeah, they may fall in the "overestimated by the home fan" category, but by pretty much any measurement, Sano and Buxton are elite prospects. They still have to deliver on that potential, of course.

[Seth Stohs]

Santana and Poloanco got unexpected promotions last year.  The club was in a bind when they called them up, but I wonder if the chance to work with Molitor weighed on those decisions at all.

I would say no, not at all.

[bird]

I don't think so... they're rated very high for multiple good reasons beyond box scores.

I'm making a distinction here and talking strictly about fans like us, whose exposure is limited almost exclusively to stats and who lack a trained eye. Buxton in particular still gets great scouting reports because the scouts are seeing his incredible physical talent, but it feels like there has been a little less overall enthusiasm here on TD, at least to me.

 

I think this is to be expected, and I think we do it a lot. For example, I believe Danny Santana was under-estimated by fans here. We saw so-so stats, but weren't as aware of the fact that his athleticism is off the charts and his makeup is conducive from all indications to being coached up. Pinto, on the other hand, may have been and might still be overrated for the same reasons: good numbers but physical skills that don't quite match it.

[bird]

Given the number of people saying Sano and Buxton will be ELITE STARS in MN, maybe starting next year, and that they should not be traded for anyone under any circumstances.....i don't think this board is filled with people underestimating them. I'd guess they are overdoing it.

It's probably in the eyes of the beholder. But I'll contend that the consensus, good and bad, on a given player is more volatile with us fans than with the scouts, understandably, because we can only base our appraisals on the numbers. Gibson and Parmelee are examples that stick out in my memory. Gibson lit it up out of the blocks, and we got plenty of comments in threads about him being a #1-2 starter. An injury and pedestrian numbers changed the consensus to back-end starter for awhile there. And Parmelee's stock has been a roller coaster here on TD based on his most recent numbers.

 

The consensus opinion from the scouts on Buxton is, I'll contend, more glowing than that of the majority of us on TD. I'm basing that on many of the comments, and particularly on comments about his trade value.

[jokin]

I'm making a distinction here and talking strictly about fans like us, whose exposure is limited almost exclusively to stats and who lack a trained eye. Buxton in particular still gets great scouting reports because the scouts are seeing his incredible physical talent, but it feels like there has been a little less overall enthusiasm here on TD, at least to me.

 

I think this is to be expected, and I think we do it a lot. For example, I believe Danny Santana was under-estimated by fans here. We saw so-so stats, but weren't as aware of the fact that his athleticism is off the charts and his makeup is conducive from all indications to being coached up. Pinto, on the other hand, may have been and might still be overrated for the same reasons: good numbers but physical skills that don't quite match it.

 

 

The consensus opinion from the scouts on Buxton is, I'll contend, more glowing than that of the majority of us on TD. I'm basing that on many of the comments, and particularly on comments about his trade value.

 

 

 

 

Regarding Santana, that may have been true of the more casual fan who relied primarily on the stat sheet- but even then, his stats in 2012 and 2013 were pretty darn good for the position and the league he played in, the only real question, which still remains in the air, is whether or not he's sure-handed and consistent enough at the position.  And Seth and others who had seen him in person, plus those in the Twins organization who made their opinions known, rated him highly, at the very least as a strong heir-apparent-at-SS candidate.  Most of the prospect lists, including Seth's and MLB.com, had him around #12 or #13 on the Twins already-strong prospect lists in the offseason between 2012 and 2013.  I was one of those who advocated in giving him a shot to debut in April this year when it became obvious to everyone on the planet except Gardy, that Florimon wasn't going to be physically up to handling the job coming out of ST.  

 

That Molitor has already installed Santana at SS going into 2015 is pretty telling that Molitor has done the requisite homework on Danny about "being coached up" over the last few seasons.

 

Regarding Buck, the enthusiasm and potential trade value has been dampened because he appears to be prone to injury. His first priority from this point forward is to remove all doubts about whether or not he can stay consistently healthy and definitively prove that 2014 was an incredible string of bad luck.  

 

I think most fans are well-aware that he likely would have been playing in CF for the Twins no later than August 1 if he had not been hurt, even if he had only put up numbers well short of 2013.  And though expectations are now tempered a bit, some people forget to take notice that in July Buck showed he was back with a vengeance, OPSing  for the month of July in the .900s, before having yet another physical setback towards the end of July (reaching base 7 times in 9 plate appearances in an extra-inning game after being hit by a pitch on his "good" wrist), and then again in August in his first game at AA.  I think the dampened expectations will remain true going into 2015, but if he gets off to a start anywhere near to his 2013 stats, or reminiscent of his hot 2014 July, and he stays on the field, health-wise, he will be in CF for the Twins no later than July of 2015.

[Mike Sixel]

Buxton is like Robert Smith....except I think he'll play longer. He's only injury prone until he's not.

 

Or, maybe he plays hard like Bryce Harper, and he will be hurt a lot. that would be a bummer.

[jokin]

Buxton is like Robert Smith....except I think he'll play longer. He's only injury prone until he's not.

 

 

 

OK, now you've gone and really done it with the comps, Mike... that's just great.  "I'll buy you dinner" if Buxton retires at 29, instead of 28 like Robert Smith, to pursue a career in medicine.    /

[Mike Sixel]

I don't think I needed any kind of indication that was humor......

[nicksaviking]

OK, now you've gone and really done it with the comps, Mike... that's just great.  "I'll buy you dinner" if Buxton retires at 29, instead of 28 like Robert Smith, to pursue a career in medicine.    /

 

 

And the greatest tragedy of all would be if that career in medicine ended up becoming a commentator on the embarassing ESPN.

[jokin]

I don't think I needed any kind of indication that was humor......

 

At this point, I'm not taking any chances....

[Gene Larkin Fan Club]

I've never watched him in person, so take it with a grain of salt, but I can't get the Reds Eric Davis out of my mind. Buxton seems to have a similar skill set.  He also seems to play the game with no regard for his own well-being, much like E.D. did.  If his production reaches that level, I'll be very happy.  Hopefully, he finds a way to stay healthy.

[bird]

Danny Santana was not ranked higher than #14 at the beginning of 2014 by anyone other than BA from what I can find. No one ranked Vargas better than #16. They were ranked behind Pinto, Harrison, Kepler, Rosario, and Walker primarily because of numbers, not on the basis of in-depth observation. 

 

This is not a criticism. My point is that our opinions about these prospects are going to be volatile because we rely so much on statistics, that's all.

[ashbury]

I've never watched him in person, so take it with a grain of salt, but I can't get the Reds Eric Davis out of my mind. Buxton seems to have a similar skill set.  He also seems to play the game with no regard for his own well-being, much like E.D. did.  If his production reaches that level, I'll be very happy.  Hopefully, he finds a way to stay healthy.

Interesting and intriguing comp.  At age 19, Buxton was arguably ahead of the pace Davis was on; the lost season at 20 makes it an incomplete comparison.  One thing that jumps out for me is that Davis is listed at 6'2" and 165 lbs.  Even assuming this to be an age-18 thing, not updated when he filled out, he is 25 lbs lower than Buxton.  You could imagine the beanpole frame being more susceptible to injury when going all-out.

[jokin]

Danny Santana was not ranked higher than #14 at the beginning of 2014 by anyone other than BA from what I can find. No one ranked Vargas better than #16. They were ranked behind Pinto, Harrison, Kepler, Rosario, and Walker primarily because of numbers, not on the basis of in-depth observation. 

 

This is not a criticism. My point is that our opinions about these prospects are going to be volatile because we rely so much on statistics, that's all.

 

Mayo had Santana at #12

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'd like to see Buxton put in a few months of above average hitting in AA before we even consider a callup.  His season this year was a disaster.  He started to heat up in Fort Meyers only to get hurt.  He needs to come to camp healthy and needs to get off to a good start in games this spring.

[DocBauer]

You can call me an eternal optimist if you like...and you wouldn't be wrong...but I'm reading the BA top 10 last night and reflecting on a few things. Do you realize that in 2015, whether it be opening day, mid season or September call up, we could/should/probably will see Buxton, Rosario, Sano, Polanco, May, Meyer, Berrios, Burdi, Reed and Jones. Eight of those are in the top 10.

 

Of course, we've already seen May and I believe he's up to stay.

 

We also might see a pair of lesser prospects that I nonetheless find intriguing in OF Ortiz and Beresford for a utility spot.

 

Darnell might stick in a bullpen spot as well.

 

Wow. Exciting.

[bird]

Mayo had Santana at #12

In a later ranking, and still validates the point being made. And Mayo I don't believe had him in his top 25 prior to that. That doesn't reflect poorly on Mayo to me. It just means that there's a lot of good talent at the top of the system, for one, and that the minor league stats aren't always that reliable as an indicator, which is why I so appreciate the work of Seth and others, and especially the mainstream guys like Sickles, who rely on scouting reports to at least some extent.

 

I remember Seth saying that he'd heard that the Twins "really like" Santana, and this was at a time when his stats weren't exactly sterling.

[Mike Sixel]

8 guys? that's a lot of people gone from opening day to the end of August (unless they are mostly Sept).