Article: What to do: Eduardo Escobar

[tobi0040]

Great... take the chance of trading a "David Ortiz" twice in the same century?

 

I would not trade Vargas, but I don't really get the Ortiz/Vargas comp.  I think folks compare body types and then think production should also be the same.  Heck, many fans at Target field have the same body type as Vargas.

 

Both came up at 23 years old.    Ortiz had a .309/.381/.532 line in the minors.  In his last two full seasons he hit 31 and 30 HR a year.  Vargas produced this line in the minors .288/.367/.486.  He never hit more than 19 HR a year.   Ortiz had the better OPS in their rookie years as well, .817 to .772.

 

I guess this a pet peeve of mine. You watch the MLB draft and every time a tall, lankly left hander that goes in the first round you hear "reminds me of Clayton Kershaw"

Edited November 6, 2014 by tobi0040

[TheLeviathan]

I can appreciate the "Plan B for Santana" approach with Escobar.  But I'd still shop him hard before I settled on that.

[tobi0040]

I can appreciate the "Plan B for Santana" approach with Escobar.  But I'd still shop him hard before I settled on that.

 

I think you definitely field calls.  The FA market at SS is very weak....when you back out guys on this list that aren't SS anymore it is even weaker.

 

http://www.cleveland.com/tribe/index.ssf/2014/10/mlb_free_agent_class_2015_shor.html

[ashbury]

It's hard to keep a thread about Escobar on topic, without also talking about Santana.

Agreed.  2014 was supposed to be a year of figuring some things out.  For some reason, time was invested in figuring out whether Santana could be a good CF.  So now in 2015 we have Escobar versus Santana questions.

 

I continue to see Escobar as a utility player (with a ceiling of "very good") on a contending team, and a starter only on a cellar-dweller.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I would not trade Vargas, but I don't really get the Ortiz/Vargas comp.  I think folks compare body types and then think production should also be the same.  Heck, many fans at Target field have the same body type as Vargas.

 

Both came up at 23 years old.    Ortiz had a .309/.381/.532 line in the minors.  In his last two full seasons he hit 31 and 30 HR a year.  Vargas produced this line in the minors .288/.367/.486.  He never hit more than 19 HR a year.   Ortiz had the better OPS in their rookie years as well, .817 to .772.

 

I guess this a pet peeve of mine. You watch the MLB draft and every time a tall, lankly left hander that goes in the first round you hear "reminds me of Clayton Kershaw"

Not to nit-pick on this side discussion, but Ortiz debuted at age 21 (2.5 months shy of 22), Vargas at exactly age 24.  By Ortiz's 24th birthday, he had over 1000 PA at AAA/MLB.

 

Although performance-wise, so far Vargas has a higher MLB OPS+ and wRC+ than Ortiz through the same age, although Vargas benefits from a smaller sample.  (Admittedly, Ortiz was better in the minors, even accounting for context, except for another Vargas small sample in low-A.)

[Willihammer]

Escobar is a tough dilemma. He's sort of the poster child for needing everyday at-bats to get into a groove.

 

From a purely asset-maximization perspective maybe the right thing is to exercise an option on Santana next season and start Esobar at SS. Give him a month to sink or swim. On the other hand, how can you option the best batter on your team?

 

IMO trying to trade Escobar now, at age 25 with his mixed track record, would be like trying to trade Plouffe at age 25. Nobody is going to bite on an arb-eligible, no option guy unless / until he proves to be a starting talent.

 

For that reason, maybe Plouffe is the release valve. He's had his late bloom. He's shown he's worth the arb-raises and can be a starter on a good team. He will have trade value.

 

It comes down to making an accurate eval of Escobar's true talent IMO. Is he poised to take the next step or would he sink back into a .650 batter if the Twins rolled with him as the 3B option next year. They need to get this one right.

Edited November 6, 2014 by Willihammer

[tobi0040]

Not to nit-pick on this side discussion, but Ortiz debuted at age 21 (2.5 months shy of 22), Vargas at exactly age 24.  By Ortiz's 24th birthday, he had over 1000 PA at AAA/MLB.

 

Although performance-wise, so far Vargas has a higher MLB OPS+ and wRC+ than Ortiz through the same age, although Vargas benefits from a smaller sample.  (Admittedly, Ortiz was better in the minors, even accounting for context, except for another Vargas small sample in low-A.)

 

I started from Ortiz's minor league numbers.  Didn't notice the 15 games as a 21 year old that were missing and I wrongly assumed he was hurt and that is why he only had 80 games in the minors as a 22 year old.   His first full season was as a 23 year old.

[dxpavelka]

Easy answer is a question:  Will the Twins be better with Escobar SS and Santana CF or Santana SS and Hicks CF?  Easy answer based on history is the first. 

Looking backward is going backward.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I started from Ortiz's minor league numbers.  Didn't notice the 15 games as a 21 year old that were missing and I wrongly assumed he was hurt and that is why he only had 80 games in the minors as a 22 year old.   His first full season was as a 23 year old.

Actually at 23 he was sentenced to a year in Salt Lake.    Age 22 he was pretty much our full-time 1B, with a two-month intermission only for wrist surgery and rehab.  Got a full year of MLB service time, I am pretty sure.  It's what made his absence at age 23 all the more notable.

[DJL44]

Keep both Santana and Escobar. Both guys carry enough risk that you need a backup plan. The Twins will be looking to trade Plouffe at some point when Sano forces the issue and he'll need a defensive caddy for late innings.

 

I like seeing Santana at SS most of the time to see if he can handle it or they need to move him somewhere less challenging like Plouffe and Dozier. He could continue to play the OF occasionally as long as he keeps hitting well enough to justify it.

 

Teams that have trouble finding playing time for all of their talented players are usually contenders. Depth is good over 162 games.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I think it is a luxury to have Escobar as the utility guy - it would be nice if he could play with passable defense in the Outfield. If that were the case, he'd be a great Cesar Tovar clone. If the Twins can find room for Escobar, Dozier, Santana and Plouffe to all get at bats that would be awesome.

 

Nuñez is pretty much out the door unless Escobar is traded. I think Santana and Escobar both deserve to be on the Twins' opening day roster.

 

Re: Vargas  - in 2014, he had 26 Homers across two levels, and his work so far projects to a shade under 30 homers over 162 games (which means he's probably closer to 20-25 per year at this point over a full MLB season). That might not be David Ortiz power, but it sure beats the guys that have been around at DH since Thome left. He's got room to grow, as does Arcia, and that Sano kid isn't far behind. I would like the Twins to keep the middle of the order as meaty as possible in the near term. If Dozier and Mauer and Santana can get on base, the big guys should be able to bring them home a lot in 2015,

[Riverbrian]

No brainer... Keep Escobar and the good problem to have that comes with him.

 

Please... Please... Please... Dear Powers that be.

 

Do not settle on starters and lock in. Embrace the flexibility that Santana, Escobar and maybe even Plouffe can bring and utilize that flexibility. While prepping for the arrival of Buxton and Sano.

 

Have honest to god competition for each position... Insurance at all positions. Play Santana in CF and SS... It will sort itself out if you manage your lineuos creatively.

 

Nobody on the 2015 roster should have to sit for extended periods of time. The entire roster should be able to produce and help win games.

 

Bring in a LF who can also play CF and you are good to go with the Offense and Defense.

 

Then you can focus on Pitching.

[Monkeypaws]

I am a proponent of depth. Escobar is a perfect guy to keep around because he is versatile, can fill in as a spot starter, pinch hitter, late inning defensive replacement, or even long-term injury replacement, and he can do this at numerous positions as well, including some important ones like SS. 

 

He can help prevent the middle-left side of the Twins infield from looking like their outfield last season.

[James Richter]

Let's not forget how much damage has been inflicted on recent Twins teams by allocating large amounts of playing time to replacement-level or worse guys when something went wrong with Plan A. Personally, I'm expecting an OPS drop on the order of .100 points for Santana next year, and we never really got to see whether his mistake-prone SS defense was going to be evened out by better maintained MLB fields. And Escobar isn't just the backup for Santana, but probably Dozier and Plouffe, too. If all 3 of those guys stay healthy and perform over 150 games apiece, maybe in retrospect we'll wish the Twins had traded Escobar for a piece they used more. But if anyone does break down in the IF, we're going to be very glad we have a real big-leaguer ready to step in.

[jokin]

1. They didn't trade Ortiz, and no one claimed him for months.

2. Yup, every trade involves the risk you trade the wrong guy for the wrong guy.

 

Nitpicking details... even Terry Ryan has acknowledged what a huge mistake was made in the case of the real Ortiz.

[Mike Sixel]

It was a mistake....but every trade carries that risk. Being afraid to trade a possible future star is going to mean you almost never trade anything of value at all.

[jokin]

I would not trade Vargas, but I don't really get the Ortiz/Vargas comp.  I think folks compare body types and then think production should also be the same.  Heck, many fans at Target field have the same body type as Vargas.

 

Both came up at 23 years old.    Ortiz had a .309/.381/.532 line in the minors.  In his last two full seasons he hit 31 and 30 HR a year.  Vargas produced this line in the minors .288/.367/.486.  He never hit more than 19 HR a year.   Ortiz had the better OPS in their rookie years as well, .817 to .772.

 

I guess this a pet peeve of mine. You watch the MLB draft and every time a tall, lankly left hander that goes in the first round you hear "reminds me of Clayton Kershaw"

 

Spycake dished out some of the pertinent stats to counter your conclusion.  The bottom line is that Ortiz's career began with multiple fits and starts.  And that every player develops on a different learning curve.  And that Vargas' first 4 years in the minors were extremely abbreviated-  he hadn't come anywhere near getting the requisite reps to refine his approach at the plate, especially considering that he is a switch-hitter.  (Through age 23, Ortiz had over 1000 more MiL PAs....  ~2200 MiL PAs vs. 1187 for Vargas)  

 

I think one should be very wary in going on record in diminishing Vargas' power potential going forward.

Edited November 7, 2014 by jokin

[Willihammer]

Let's not forget how much damage has been inflicted on recent Twins teams by allocating large amounts of playing time to replacement-level or worse guys when something went wrong with Plan A. Personally, I'm expecting an OPS drop on the order of .100 points for Santana next year, and we never really got to see whether his mistake-prone SS defense was going to be evened out by better maintained MLB fields. And Escobar isn't just the backup for Santana, but probably Dozier and Plouffe, too. If all 3 of those guys stay healthy and perform over 150 games apiece, maybe in retrospect we'll wish the Twins had traded Escobar for a piece they used more. But if anyone does break down in the IF, we're going to be very glad we have a real big-leaguer ready to step in.

I appreciate that angle. I would counter with the majority of the Gardy years when middle infielders were health but getting production from them was a chronic problem. Part of that undoubtedly was that the talent just wasn't very good. Another part I think was in Gardy regularly rotating in the Alexi Casilla's, Brian Buschers, Matt Tolberts, and Brendan "Just Looking" Harris's in order to keep them "fresh." 

 

That's why they need to make a firm judgment about what kind of talent Escobar really is, IMO. If he's good enough to start, then he should start, and they can let a Doug Bernier or Ed Nunez backup the left side of the infield *only* if there's an injury. Those guys aren't hard to find. Likewise if he's a backup talent, then he should sit on the bench and shouldn't be rotated in ahead of better players just to keep him "fresh."

Edited November 6, 2014 by Willihammer

[jokin]

It was a mistake....but every trade carries that risk. Being afraid to trade a possible future star is going to mean you almost never trade anything of value at all.

 

That's just it, a trade shouldn't be made with trepidation, but with conviction that the trade-offs of a trade will end up as a net positive... trading one future HOFer doesn't look good on your resume, especially with the now-documented history in how that star's abilities were mishandled or unrecognized.  It would be a shame to go down that road, yet again.

[Mike Sixel]

If Arcia is a HoF, I'll buy you dinner after the induction (assuming I'm still alive in 20 years).....

[ashbury]

If Arcia is a HoF, I'll buy you dinner after the induction (assuming I'm still alive in 20 years).....

Buy him a dinner now just to be safe.  If you're still alive in 20 years, he can pay you back.

[jokin]

 

Tobi0040 said this:

Ortiz had the better OPS in their rookie years as well, .817 to .772.

 

 

 

Not to nit-pick on this side discussion, but Ortiz debuted at age 21 (2.5 months shy of 22), Vargas at exactly age 24.  By Ortiz's 24th birthday, he had over 1000 PA at AAA/MLB.

 

Although performance-wise, so far Vargas has a higher MLB OPS+ and wRC+ than Ortiz through the same age, although Vargas benefits from a smaller sample.  (Admittedly, Ortiz was better in the minors, even accounting for context, except for another Vargas small sample in low-A.)

 

Let's be totally accurate here, the differences aren't that stark at all, and look pretty encouraging given that Ortiz had more than 1000 more PAs at all levels by the same age:

 

Through age 24, here are the MLB numbers:

 

Ortiz:  397 PAs 10 HR Slash .271/.360/.426/.786  OPS+ 109 ISO 155 wRC+ 102

 

 

Vargas:  234 PAs 9 HR Slash .274/.316/.452/.772  OPS+ 115 ISO 181 wRC+ 114

 

 

Ortiz had a slightly higher BABIP and a slightly lower K%.

Edited November 7, 2014 by jokin

[jokin]

If Arcia is a HoF, I'll buy you dinner after the induction (assuming I'm still alive in 20 years).....

 

Heh.  And this HoF discussion, I thought was rather obvious, has never, and could never, involve Arcia.

[GoGonzoJournal]

I don't think the Twins are as committed to Santana at short as they or you make it out. That decision should be made after Spring Training, and all this talk about Santana at short may be Terry Ryan's attempt to shop Escobar. I like Escobar at short, Santana in center, and a platoon of Hicks and Schafer in left to start next season. If Sano or Buxton tear up the minors prior to the trade deadline, then you field offers for Escobar, but until then...

[Platoon]

I would not trade Eddy, nor would he be my starting SS out of spring training.  Good teams have players like EE on the bench, versatile and able to play extended innings if needed.  This decision, like many others should be made with 2016 in mind.  I would like to see aggressive intelligent decisions based on the future.   I don't want the Twins to try and "improve" to 80-82 and call the season  success by settling for a replacement level  player who will win a game or two this year, but will impede the progress of someone with a better future.  Yes, I know that sooner or later the future has to get here, but last years injuries, suspensions, and questionable roster decisions sadly moved the future back a year. There is truth to the rumor that reality bites!!

[jokin]

I would not trade Eddy, nor would he be my starting SS out of spring training.  Good teams have players like EE on the bench, versatile and able to play extended innings if needed.  This decision, like many others should be made with 2016 in mind.  I would like to see aggressive intelligent decisions based on the future.   I don't want the Twins to try and "improve" to 80-82 and call the season  success by settling for a replacement level  player who will win a game or two this year, but will impede the progress of someone with a better future.  Yes, I know that sooner or later the future has to get here, but last years injuries, suspensions, and questionable roster decisions sadly moved the future back a year. There is truth to the rumor that reality bites!!

 

Great post.  Esco is exactly the type of guy you want on a team looking to turn the corner.  By all accounts, he's been one of the most popular players on this team, as well as in Chicago, and his outstanding play this season will thrust him into more of a role as a leader.  He's still very young, the Twins have four more years of cost control, and he still won't have hit the age of 30.  I looked it up the numbers this year and was pleasantly surprised how well Esco did with respect to his peers, in comps combining offense and defense, Esco's numbers actually compared favorably to Starlin Castro (@$8M AAV) and Jose Reyes ($16M).  Until things shake out more definitively with the prospects, Esco is the perfect guy in the UTIL role.

[Thrylos]

They got to go with D there and Escobar's is better than Santana's.  I suspect that when pitchers adjust, Escobar's bat will be better than Santana's as well.   The issue with Escobar as utility is that he cannot play third all that well (despite Gardenhire playing him there.)  Given that either Nunez and/or Plouffe (depending on where Sano is starting the season) will be one or two utility guys, I'd say: think outside the box, sell high and trade Santana.

 

And not only because of Escobar.   If "the arrival of Buxton is imminent", Polanco, who is the same age as Buxton, and has performed better than Buxton at the same (and higher) levels should be there before Buxton, at least as soon as 2016, if not at 2015, and he will be the Twins' starting SS.

Edited November 7, 2014 by Thrylos

[trgray]

The Giants are not likely to retain Pablo Sandoval and they have no real in-house candidates to replace him.

 

Twins should trade Plouffe to the Giants for pitching or outfield help, give the third base job to Sano and keep EE as a utility player and insurance in case Sano falters.

[tobi0040]

Spycake dished out some of the pertinent stats to counter your conclusion.  The bottom line is that Ortiz's career began with multiple fits and starts.  And that every player develops on a different learning curve.  And that Vargas' first 4 years in the minors were extremely abbreviated-  he hadn't come anywhere near getting the requisite reps to refine his approach at the plate, especially considering that he is a switch-hitter.  (Through age 23, Ortiz had over 1000 more MiL PAs....  ~2200 MiL PAs vs. 1187 for Vargas)  

 

I think one should be vary wary in going on record in diminishing Vargas' power potential going forward.

 

I am not diminishing Vargas's power potential, I am just saying Ortiz had better numbers in the minors. No doubt my timeline was off.  But Vargas had a high of 19 HR a year, Ortiz had 30 or more twice.  I am simply suggesting that Vargas "little papi" or whatever it is, is more body type related than that he is a future HOF player.  The media gets carried away with these comps, especially based on appearance.

Edited November 7, 2014 by tobi0040

[stringer bell]

Agreed.  2014 was supposed to be a year of figuring some things out.  For some reason, time was invested in figuring out whether Santana could be a good CF.  So now in 2015 we have Escobar versus Santana questions.

 

I continue to see Escobar as a utility player (with a ceiling of "very good") on a contending team, and a starter only on a cellar-dweller.

Disagree with your assessment Ash. I think Escobar is good enough to be a regular shortstop on a playoff team. However, it would be as the 8/9 hitter and someone that would be replaceable i.e. not a building block. The good news is that Escobar is reliable and versatile defensively and he took a giant step ahead offensively last year. The downside is that he's never been a selective hitter, he doesn't have much power and only average speed, which limits his defensive ability and eliminates the stolen base as a weapon in his arsenal. I think this limits his overall upside to above-average at best.

 

Santana could be what Escobar is not. He has great speed and looks like a possibility as a top of the order hitter. He might have the ability to make the spectacular play. He could be a star. that potential opens doors that Escobar can't open. However, I'm not sure if he can be a good defender at the crucial position of shortstop. I think he needs to show he can handle the position defensively. Rather than move Escobar around, I think Santana could develop into an infielder/outfielder who could cover any of four or five positions short term including both shortstop and center field.