Article: What to do: Eduardo Escobar

[Seth Stohs]

This week, the Twins named their 13^th manager and we have been analyzing that decision quite thoroughly. However, it’s also important to know that free agency has started now and the business of baseball continues. So today, I want to start a series on various Twins players and what the offseason could mean for them. Today, I will start with infielder Eduardo Escobar.Background

 

Eduardo Escobar came to the Minnesota Twins on July 28, 2012, along with Pedro Hernandez in exchange for lefty Francisco Liriano. He had been the White Sox main utility infielder that season. That is the role he played for the Twins in the first half of the 2013 season before spending part of the second half in Rochester.

 

Escobar will turn 26 years old in early January. He comes from Venezuela and is again playing this winter for the Tigres de Aragua.

 

2014 Season

 

Out of options, Escobar earned a spot on the 2014 25-man roster. However, about a month into the season, the incumbent shortstop Pedro Florimon was optioned to Rochester. Escobar took over as the regular shortstop, and he was able to keep it thanks to a breakout season.

 

He played in 133 games which is eight games more than he had played over his three previous seasons in the big leagues. He hit .275/.315/.406 (.721) which equates to an OPS+ of 102. So, he was two percent better offensively than an average MLB player, which is very good. And, when you put it into perspective relative to other shortstops, he posted a 2.3 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) according to fangraphs.com. Put into another perspective, fangraphs.com also says that he was worth $12.7 million.

 

Business of Baseball

 

As a player who had not yet reached arbitration, Escobar made just a little big over the league minimum, approximately $510,000. After 2014, he was nearly a Super-2 guy, but he fell just short. In other words, in 2015, he will get a raise, but it will most likely be well less than $600,000.

 

Role in 2015

 

At Tuesday’s press conference, it came out that the plan is still for Danny Santana to make the move in to shortstop from centerfield. In addition, Trevor Plouffe will man the hot corner, and Brian Dozier will be at second base. Combined, this would mean a return to the utility role for Eduardo Escobar in 2015.

 

Is that the right choice? That is certainly debatable and at the heart of this article.

 

Danny Santana came up through the minor leagues as a shortstop. There was some hope that he could potentially be a guy whose name is put in the lineup most every day for several years in a row. When he came up to the Twins early in the season, it was to play shortstop, but Escobar earned the job. With Aaron Hicks struggling again with the bat, Santana was given an opportunity to play centerfield. He didn’t give up that job. Santana hit better than anyone could have expected, well beyond the offensive numbers he racked up throughout his minor league career. Although he was not a natural outfielder and struggled with some of the fine points of the position, he played an adequate centerfield. Of course, his defensive reputation at shortstop in the minor leagues was not sterling either.

 

One of the reasons there was a desire to move Santana from centerfield was the imminent arrival of Byron Buxton. With Buxton’s frustrating 2014 season, the likelihood of him showing up at Target Field before August or September is probably very low.

 

Meanwhile, the 25-year-old Escobar did the job at shortstop. He not only hit, but he played a very solid defensive shortstop. However, the decision to move Santana back to shortstop indicates that the Twins brass sees Escobar’s 2014 as a fluke and believe that he is more valuable to the team as a utility infielder.

 

Was Escobar’s 2014 season a fluke? Was Santana’s 2014 season a fluke? Of course, an other factor might be who will be available this offseason in a trade or via free agency.

 

Maybe the following question must be asked. Would the Twins be better in 2015 with Eduardo Escobar at shortstop, Danny Santana in center and a question mark in left field, or would they be better with Santana at shortstop, Escobar on the bench and question marks at two outfield positions? Equally important, what is best for the overall future of the Minnesota Twins?

 

These are decisions to be made by Terry Ryan and his staff, including Paul Molitor, but they are interesting to consider.

 

To Extend or not to Extend

 

Along with considering what Escobar's role may be for 2015, there are other discussions that need to be had in the front office (and frankly, may have already been had at the organizational meetings).

 

Should the Twins consider offering Eduardo Escobar a contract extension? Every offseason, a fun topic is whether or not there are players who should be signed to a long-term contract.

 

Escobar won’t hit arbitration for another season. He also won’t be a free agent until after the 2018 season. So, of course there is no rush to extend him. The difficulty in this decision is that his role over those years will greatly affect his ability to make money. If he is a utility player, the top guys will make between $3-4 million per year. However, if the Twins went year-to-year, he would likely make something like $3 million over the next three years, or $4.5 million over the next four years before becoming a free agent. What dollar value would the Twins need to offer for it to make it worth their while?

 

At the same time, if Escobar is a starter, he could make as much as $3 million in 2016 and up from there. So at this point, there is no reason for Escobar to accept an offer that would make any sense for the Twins.

 

Assuming the Twins will move him back to a utility role, it makes much more sense to go year-to-year.

 

To Trade or Not to Trade

 

As we’ve noted, Escobar had a very solid season as a 25-year-old shortstop. It may have been enough for some team or teams to view him as capable of being a regular MLB shortstop. And yet, it’s clear that the Twins brass (based on them pushing him back to a utility role in 2015) believe that he is a utility infielder. There’s no shame in that. His performance in 2014 tells me that he can be one of the better utility infielders in the game.

 

However, if the team truly believes that he may have peaked in 2014, would this not be an opportune time to reach out to teams about acquiring pitching, or another area of need, in exchange for him? What if a team offered a Double-A pitcher who is their fifth-ranked prospect and another piece?

 

I think it might be wise for the Twins to at least explore the market for Escobar, selling him as an everyday shortstop even if they seemingly don’t believe it themselves.

 

SUMMARY

 

So there you have it, over 1,250 words on Eduardo Escobar. He performed very well in 2014 when given an opportunity to be an everyday shortstop. However, the team is committing to Danny Santana at that position in 2015. The first question is whether or not Escobar should be given an opportunity to be the Twins shortstop in 2015. Beyond that, should the Twins consider signing him to an extension, or should they try to deal him for pitching?

 

Now it’s your turn. Let’s discuss Eduardo Escobar and what this offseason means for him.

 

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[stringer bell]

The three best hitters on the team appear to block EE, or maybe it is the three best players. He played a quality major league SS and hit very, very well and his reward is utility duty? Further, because the three guys manning second, short, and third were the three best players last year, his chances of getting a lot of starts aren't that good unless there is an injury. Finally, Escobar hit well from the right side. That would present a great chance if he was an outfielder or first baseman, but Plouffe, Dozier, and Santana all hit left handers very well. I think we've seen his ceiling, which is pretty good. If someone offered a good pitcher, maybe the time to trade him is now. Personally, though, I think EE will get his time on the field, just not right out of the box.

[Rosterman]

Spring Training will shake things out. Do the Twins find a left fielder. Is Aaron Hicks sound. Does Escobar AND Santana light up the grapefruit league and you find a place for both. Is Nunez still on the 40-man. Escobar is a bargain as a backup, and no need to extend him, just go year-to-year.He is better than nothing, so far, but is truly replaceable as more prospects come forth...Polanco for example. Again, depends on what the Twins do about a bat for left field, but I would be happy if Hicks shines, Santana is at short, and Escobar is around to play middle infield or 3B if someone goes down and we have to bring up a Beresford or someone as a replacement utility guy, although if Santana would go down, I see Polanco getting more at bats. And, who knows, Sano may slug out Plouffe and take over third, pushing Plouffe into a battle with Arcia and Vargas for at bats.

[HitInAPinch]

Easy answer is a question:  Will the Twins be better with Escobar SS and Santana CF or Santana SS and Hicks CF?  Easy answer based on history is the first. 

[ThejacKmp]

Outside the box solution:

Trevor Plouffe will likely be pushed from third base by Sano.  Why not be proactive and spend spring training getting him acclimated to left field (he's played 30 major league games and 7 minor league games in the outfield so its not totally new but he can't be just thrown into the fire).  This gives you time to evaluate the following:

 

1) Is Trevor Plouffe a solution (short term or longer) to LF? (If not is Rosario the answer? Does Hicks move over?)

 

2) Is Santana going to continue to hit and handle SS? (If not, Escobar can move back from 3B and Sano or Plouffe can take back 3B)

 

3) Is Escobar more of a utility guy or an every day guy?

 

4) Is Hicks able to hit enough to be a replacement level CF until Buxton gets up?  Does he figure some things out and profile as a corner outfielder?

 

I know it seems like the Twins need to go get a stud LF but with Sano and Buxton coming up midseason, it seems like the Twins would be better to get all of these guys some playing time and see whose year last year was a fluke and who profiles long term.  Its not crazy to think of a Twins future where Plouffe is holding down an outfield position - seems more likely than him being the 3Bman (knock on wood for Sano_.

[Poli_Crandall]

I think the best option is to sell while his stock is high. The Twins obviously do not see him as a primary contributor in their future plans and EE is blocked by better options in both MI positions and 3rd.  If he becomes a super utility (ie a Ben Zobrist type) where he can play the OF corners respectably as well i think it would be beneficial for the twins to keep him.  If not I think it is best to try to package him to a team for pitching.  The team that jumps out to me is the Mets.  It has been discussed that they will be extremely active in the trade market for a solid SS and OFer in exchange for their plethora of SP talent .  I wonder if the Mets would bite on a package that included EE and Arcia. Keith Law did a piece on the Starting Pitching market for this offseason and mentioned Zach Wheeler as a potential trade chip for the Mets.  I don't know if a package of EE and Arcia would be enough but its certainly worth looking into.  

[ThejacKmp]

On a similar vein (and maybe this isn't the article for this discussion), can we solve the logjam at 1B/DH by the radical move of putting Joey out in left?  He's reasonably athletic with an arm that can make up for any lack of range, his bat profiles better out in left than at first and while there is an increased risk of injury, at some point you need to take that risk and this seems reasonable.  I don't think he'd be out there in five years but it would buy you some time and solve several acute weaknesses.

 

In addition to filling the Twins greatest positional hole with a unique talent, this would allow you to make Vargas your DH and Pinto your primary first baseman (though he's never played in the majors and only 14 games in the minors, I'm confident he'd be better than Vargas after spring training) and backup/third string catcher.  We'd get to see what Pinto and Vargas can do it defined roles with everyday playing time.

 

Thoughts?

[Platoon]

Before you decide roster moves, an agreement between management and the bench needs to be in place. Win games early in the year? Or build a foundation? That question resolved, it seems someone in the organization thinks DS can play shortstop better than EE, if not now eventually. They are certainly not thinking of putting him at SS because some arm chair GM's think they should. My guess is that they think they know what they have in EE at short, and what you saw is what you will get. They might also surmise that DS could be much better, and continue to fill the lead off spot. They can always switch back to EE, but if they think DS can play short, the time to find out is now. Due to injuries, suspensions, and managerial decisions this issue did not get resolved in as timely a manner as it could have been. How it is now handled will have a snowball effect, ie Hicks, Shafer, and Rosario. If one knew the answer to the question posed at the beginning of this comment, it would go a long way towards speculating on the future roster/lineup.

[Thegrin]

EE = Cesar Tovar ?

 

Joe in LF ?  If Yogi Berra could play LF, Joe certainly can 

[tobi0040]

Before you decide roster moves, an agreement between management and the bench needs to be in place. Win games early in the year? Or build a foundation? That question resolved, it seems someone in the organization thinks DS can play shortstop better than EE, if not now eventually. They are certainly not thinking of putting him at SS because some arm chair GM's think they should. My guess is that they think they know what they have in EE at short, and what you saw is what you will get. They might also surmise that DS could be much better, and continue to fill the lead off spot. They can always switch back to EE, but if they think DS can play short, the time to find out is now.

Yes, Yes, Yes.

 

The Twins need to decide what direction to go in.  The best move in my opinion is for Hicks to get OF reps and Santana to get SS reps.  This is the best move for the 2016 Twins and I would argue the best move for the August 2015 Twins. 

 

We don't need Pinto at DH, Santana in CF, and Hicks as our 4th OF.  It may help us in April but does anyone think this team is making a run this year?

[Mike Sixel]

Huh. I don't know.....but here is what I would do:

 

1. Santana at SS

2. Sano in AA, but as soon as he looks good, to MLB roster

3. Plouffe gets time in LF in spring training to see if he can handle it

4. If Plouffe can't play LF, start with Plouffe at 3B, Santana at SS, Esco as the utility person, play him 2 or so times a week, giving guys time.

5. If Plouffe can play LF, move him there, and put Esco at 3B until Sano.

 

but, I don't know if any of that is a good idea or not.......but I could see Plouffe as Alex Gordon like.

[hybridbear]

I see a couple potential options:

• Escobar 3B, Santana SS, Dozier 2B, Mauer 1B, Plouffe LF, revolving door in CF until Buxton is ready, Arcia RF, Vargas/Pinto DH, Suzuki C - this allows Escobar to potentially increase his stock higher so that the Twins can sell high when Sano is ready to take over 3B or if Escobar struggles then the Twins can sign him to a long-term cheap extension to keep him at their Utility guy
• Escobar SS, Plouffe 3B, Dozier 2B, Vargas 1B, Mauer LF, Santana CF, Arcia RF, Pinto DH, Suzuki C - then when Buxton or Sano make it to the big leagues you can shift players around and/or trade Plouffe and/or Escobar, I think this provides the Twins with the best offensive lineup to start the season but is questionable defensively, but if Molitor implements shifts and other changes on defense based on statistics that could mask some of the issues

The other question is: where is Eddie Rosario?? Last off season there was constant talk about him being part of the big league club in 2014. Then he got suspended and disappeared from the discussion. Did he forget how to play baseball during his suspension? Have the Twins given up on him since he's had off-field issues?

[tobi0040]

Huh. I don't know.....but here is what I would do:

 

1. Santana at SS

2. Sano in AA, but as soon as he looks good, to MLB roster

3. Plouffe gets time in LF in spring training to see if he can handle it

4. If Plouffe can't play LF, start with Plouffe at 3B, Santana at SS, Esco as the utility person, play him 2 or so times a week, giving guys time.

5. If Plouffe can play LF, move him there, and put Esco at 3B until Sano.

 

but, I don't know if any of that is a good idea or not.......but I could see Plouffe as Alex Gordon like.

 

I agree with 1-3. A few ST innings in LF is fine with me, but I leave Plouffe at 3B until Sano proves he can handle it.  I think if Plouffe has another 3-4 good months at 3B his trade value is higher than if he goes out to LF and struggles, which he would likely do right away.  Exploring a trade for Plouffe has to be one option IF Sano can stick at 3B.

Edited November 6, 2014 by tobi0040

[Mike Sixel]

Well, certainly, moving Sano to RF and trading Arcia is also an option, but I don't see that one happening.

 

either way, I'd keep Escobar, as the utility guy.

[jokin]

The other question is: where is Eddie Rosario?? Last off season there was constant talk about him being part of the big league club in 2014. Then he got suspended and disappeared from the discussion. Did he forget how to play baseball during his suspension? Have the Twins given up on him since he's had off-field issues?

 

I don't think they've forgotten Rosario, or he wouldn't be playing in the AFL  (and leading the League in BA).  I do think he has to wipe away the doubt about his maturity, besides the off-field misadventures, he's also been disciplined in the clubhouse numerous times over the past few years, that the Twins have stuck with him throughout his travails tells me they still see him in their long-term plans.  Assuming he starts strong in AA, I think he will be the first position player called up for a need in the OF.

[diehardtwinsfan]

If the Twins think he's peaked, then they should be trading him.  Another year of solid production like this season would make him immensely valuable in the trade market, but if the Twins think he's peaked, I'd get what I could get b/c even now he'd probably fetch a pretty decent prospect, particularly if the Twins were targeting a LF prospect, which tend to be more plentiful. 

 

That said, from what I understand, Santana's defense still needs quite a bit of work, and while he hit quite well, I think the guy more likely to have had a fluke season at this point is Santana, not Escobar.  To be clear I think Santana has the higher ceiling and is the long term answer, but as of right now, I'm somewhat convinced that the best course of action might be to put Santana in AAA to start the year.  Let him work on his defense, and if he continues to play well, they can trade Escobar after 2015 or at the deadline. 

[tobi0040]

I think the guy more likely to have had a fluke season at this point is Santana, not Escobar. 

 

Your suspicion has some support in their BABIP numbers from last year.  Santana was at .406 and Escobar .336.

[Mike Sixel]

Good point....if they are wrong about Santana as a SS, it would be great to have a backup plan that they have some confidence in. I see no reason to move Esco right now, none. They won't be blown away with a great offer, and he has good/high value to them.

 

It is time to stop only playing for the future....and play some for now. 

[jokin]

Your suspicion has some support in their BABIP numbers from last year.  Santana was at .406 and Escobar .336.

 

Yep- very true, but how could the Twins move the guy back to AAA that led them in fWAR over the 2nd half of the season?  I think Santana should get the chance to start the season at SS and prove that he's either ready or not ready to handle the position, you always have Escobar to jump back into the position if Santana needs remedial reps in Rochester.

[DK]

Imagine if you had Vargas, Pinto and maybe even Sano as your 1B/DH combination.  Maybe they should be looking at Mauer in the outfield. 

[iTwins]

I like Escobar as the Twins utility player. I've said it many times on these forums already - but I think Eduardo Escobar is the utility player on the next Twins championship team. He's adds value with his bat and defensive flexability - I'd use him all over the infield (SS,2B,3B) to give days off to Santana, Dozier and Plouffe.

 

I think you listen to trade offers, but you don't shop him. You don't HAVE to move him. He's cheap, provides value to the team and is well liked in the clubhouse. If a team comes by and blows you away (trade wise) you move on - otherwise? He's a perfect utilty player.

[strumdatjaguar]

Why not competition between Santana and Escobar for the SS position??  And the season long competition shouldn't end there.   In Left, the battle should ultimately be between "Last Chance" Hicks and Rosario (.382 and .820 OPS in Arizona Fall League), and in RF, Plouffe and Arcia can ultimately compete for the starting job.   Plouffe should start the year at third,  but could move to right field if Arcia doesn't cut it or when Sano comes up..  Ultimately, we'll see Buxton in CF - IF HE CAN STAY HEALTHY.    If all play well, then we'll have a great bench.   I suspect some of these players won't play well or will be injured, another reason to keep Escobar and all of the above (no trades unless the other team comes to us with an decent offer, nobody is untouchable - including Buxton for the right price).    

[Dantes929]

As long as Arcia is in right I hate the idea of Mauer in left.   Lack of range cannot be made up for with a strong arm.    My memory was that Escobar did not earn the shortstop spot over Santana but that Santana was simply needed elsewhere.   Schaefer presents the same kind of dilemma as Escobar.   They both played well and probably deserve more opportunity and if you knew they could do as well or better then the issue is settled but neither one have that kind of vibe.    I would much rather have Santana and HIcks in the outfield for speed and defense and once Buxton and Rosario are ready move Santana back to shortstop and accept any rust or deficiencies there.   If HIcks steps up I would love an outfield of Hicks, Buxton and Rosario as I think that would be elite defensively.   Then move either Arcia or Vargas.   Escobar and Plouffe would both be assets on the bench.

[Seth Stohs]

Good point....if they are wrong about Santana as a SS, it would be great to have a backup plan that they have some confidence in. I see no reason to move Esco right now, none. They won't be blown away with a great offer, and he has good/high value to them.

 

It is time to stop only playing for the future....and play some for now. 

 

FWIW - I agree  with this as well. The parts of the article regarding looking to trade him or sign him to an extension were really just for discussion, and it's probably something that should be discussed for all players, even if likelihood of actually doing it is small.

 

I really like the point about keeping Escobar around since there are so many questions about Santana's glove yet.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

It's hard to keep a thread about Escobar on topic, without also talking about Santana.

 

(Minor factual point: Escobar actually got a shot playing CF before Santana did.)

 

I want Escobar to get another shot at SS in spring training. If the Twins commit to Santana at short, that's fine with me too. Some say that Polanco and Gordon can be future shortstops, so if Santana is needed in CF then we already know Escobar can play SS for an extended period. I like Escobar a lot. He has positive value for this team either as full time or utility.

[birddog]

Escobar had a nice season and at 26 has not reached his prime yet, so let him develop. We expected nothing of him last year and he rewarded us with a more-than-adequate bat and glove. Even if he starts out as the UI, injuries will undoubtedly provide him the opportunity to get plenty of at bats. If he is traded, it should not be for a prospect but for a pitcher who will help us this year. The future has to become the present at some point. I really like the idea of Mauer in left. He's athletic enough and I like opening up 1B for the Vargas/Pinto/Sano types who may not have enough glove to play anywhere else. I look forward to seeing what Molitor will bring out in Mauer.

[jokin]

Then move either Arcia or Vargas.   

 

Great... take the chance of trading a "David Ortiz" twice in the same century?

[Brandon]

Several of the Teams who have starting pitchers available to trade need SS.  Even with a 102 adjusted OPS Escobar was one of the better hitting SS last year in the AL. The Mets are willing to trade Niese or Gee.  I think a package built around Escobar for one of them can be accomplished.  With that said I am not a big fan of trading him.  I think he should be the starting SS going into next season and Santana should stay in CF.  While Escobar is probably a more average SS he definitely has earned the right to start and if we aren't going to start him we should deal him plain and simple.  We have Nunez to be the back up with several others waiting at AAA and Polanco just a call away. 

[brvama]

I agree that Escobar is a valuable piece now and in the future.  If it were my choice, I'd start Escobar at short and Santana in CF for half the games.  The other times I'd move Santana to short to give him experience there with Escobar giving Plouffe and Dozier rest.  For CF I'd use either Hicks or Schafer when Santana is at short, assuming both are on the team out of spring. After Buxton arrives I think Escobar would make an excellent utility man.

[Mike Sixel]

Great... take the chance of trading a "David Ortiz" twice in the same century?

 

1. They didn't trade Ortiz, and no one claimed him for months.

2. Yup, every trade involves the risk you trade the wrong guy for the wrong guy.