Article: Postseason Review: Bullpen

[stringer bell]

The last two years, the Twins' bullpen has been incredibly stable. They've also been regarded as quite effective, especially when compared to the starting rotation. During the last leg of the season, the bullpen was neither effective nor efficient. I'm going to discuss the players who were on the club for most of the season.Six pitchers spent all season with the Twins and threw almost all of their innings in the bullpen: Swarzak, Burton, Fien, Duensing, Thielbar and Perkins. They all threw between 47 and 68 innings, with Swarzak again logging the most frames and Thielbar the least. With so many measures to view overall effectiveness, it is really hard to summarize the group, other than to point out that five of these six relievers gave up more hits than innings pitched. Only Glen Perkins struck out more than one batter per inning and all of their ERAs were over three.

 

As a relief staff, the Twins didn't strike out many, but also didn't walk many. This wasn't a bullpen that overpowered hitters. As a group they were effective when they hit their spots and the balls hit into play found the gloves of the Twins fielders. Here's a brief thumbnail of each along with a projection for 2015:

 

Thielbar: After having a fine rookie campaign, Caleb Thielbar pitched a pretty anonymous 47.1 innings. He was close to equally effective against left or right. Like most Twins relievers, he weakened at the end of the season. Thielbar is not eligible for arbitration, which increases his value. I expect that Caleb will be a member of the coming year's bullpen.

 

Duensing: The WHIP is up, K's are down. Duensing was the only all-season reliever to have his ERA outpace his FIP by a substantial amount. I have liked Duensing because of his versatility and durability, but since he will be arb-eligible, he is a strong candidate to be non-tendered. I, for one, hope that the Twins find a way to keep the veteran lefty, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if he is traded or non-tendered.

 

Perkins: Publicly, the Twins are saying that Perkins is an All-Star closer and that his pitching arm is fine. While I am glad that there isn't something seriously wrong with his arm, I'm not convinced that his performance going forward won't become an issue. Perkins got his swings and misses and his strikeouts in 2014, but even before his dismal September, his velocity was down and he allowed a lot of hard-hit balls, not all of which should have been caught. He allowed 32 hits in 32 innings from June-August before his (injury-fueled) drop-off in September. Just about every stat went the wrong way in 2014. At the very least, Perk will have to make some adjustments.

 

Swarzak: He won points with his manager and pitching coach by taking the ball when asked. In 2015 however he wil have a different coach and manager. Swarzak's role is long relief and they just aren't very valuable unless they can evolve into a late-inning role or a spot in the rotation. It looks to me like long relief is Swarzak's only role. Swarzak garnered four starts, with mostly unimpressive results and wasn't much better in higher leverage situations. The numbers say he regressed to the mean after a very good 2013. His WHIP was up, walks up and strikeouts down. Since he's arbitration-eligible and out of options, I expect Swarzak will be pitching for someone else next year.

 

Burton: Burton was a solid performer in 2012, less solid in 2013, and started out horribly in 2014. He pitched better as the season wore on, and by the end of the season he was the Twins most reliable reliever IMHO. The warning signs started in 2013. His velocity was down, and it lessened the effectiveness of his out pitch, the change-up. The numbers point the wrong way--WHIP, hits per IP and BBs up, K's down. Burton was victimized by base stealers, unable or unwilling to keep runners close. The Twins pretty much closed the door on his return by buying out his 2015 option. The 33 year old Burton will be a free agent and I doubt the Twins will seriously try to re-sign him.

 

Fien: Like Burton and Thielbar, Fien was picked off the scrap heap. His performance when called up in 2012 was excellent and surprising. He started strong in 2013, but faded. That script was followed in 2014. Fien was the principal eighth inning guy and did well holding leads. In his few attempts to close games, he couldn't get it done. Fien's two-pitch mix requires excellent command. If he's a little off, the ball can travel a long, long way. He allowed slightly more hits than innings pitched, struck out far fewer batters than previously and yielded some big innings. At 31, it is doubtful that he can improve much. Much like Swarzak, Duensing and Burton, it seems likely that we've seen the best these men have to offer. It makes sense to move several of the bullpen guys and replace them with younger guys with power arms.

 

This concludes my "Postseason Reviews". To summarize, there are a lot of pretty good players already in the majors. The talent needs to be augmented by an improved pitching staff and maybe some premium talent that is getting close to arriving.

 

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[jorgenswest]

The Royals threw 2287 97+ fastballs in 2014. The Twins threw 1.

 

They need some fire in the pen. Burton is gone. Swarzak and Duensing should go. Thielbar and Fien have an option left. That flexibility should save their spot on the 40 but not the 25.

[Mike Sixel]

Gotta go with young guys with options....on a team with so many questions at SP, imo, you need to be able to move relievers up and down.....I wouldn't care all that much if none of them came back.

[SwainZag]

The Royals threw 2287 97+ fastballs in 2014. The Twins threw 1.

 

They need some fire in the pen. Burton is gone. Swarzak and Duensing should go. Thielbar and Fien have an option left. That flexibility should save their spot on the 40 but not the 25.

 

I like this.  Burton, Duensing and Swarzak all move on while keeping around Thielbar, Fien and Perkins.  

 

It leaves guys like Tonkin, Pressly, Oliveros and Pelfrey if they decide to go that route among the younger power arms to fill out a pen.  I could see a veteran being brought in too.  I think asking Perkins and 5-6 rookies probably isn't going to happen.

[HitInAPinch]

Trade Perkins while you still can. 

[HitInAPinch]

I like this.  Burton, Duensing and Swarzak all move on while keeping around Thielbar, Fien and Perkins.  

 

It leaves guys like Tonkin, Pressly, Oliveros and Pelfrey if they decide to go that route among the younger power arms to fill out a pen.  I could see a veteran being brought in too.  I think asking Perkins and 5-6 rookies probably isn't going to happen.

 

I could see Duensing as that guy.  He has been successful, perhaps wearing out after all the innings he's been asked to pitch.  A relative soft-tosser amongst power arms?  No brainer....

[Thegrin]

Swarzak is a proven long man. Unless we have 5 solid starters, we need someone who can suppress runs and give us a chance to score.

 

What lefthander do you want to use against lefthanded batters ?

 

Tonkin, Pressly, & Oliveros showed nothing special in 2014.

 

No matter what the Twins do, I doubt our bullpen will perform much differently than in 2014 unless the starters pitch better and limit the relievers innings.

[Mike Sixel]

Pelfrey should be the long man, imo. Maybe Milone. 

[jorgenswest]

Pelfrey should be the long man, imo. Maybe Milone.

 

Is that because you have no hope they will release him? In your opinion, does Pelfrey have the arm health to bounce back on short rest as well as come in and put out a fire with runners on base?

 

I hope they make him win that job and release him if he doesn't show that ability in the spring.

[RealTwinsFan357]

Is that because you have no hope they will release him? In your opinion, does Pelfrey have the arm health to bounce back on short rest as well as come in and put out a fire with runners on base?

 

I hope they make him win that job and release him if he doesn't show that ability in the spring.

I agree there is no way to determine how Pelfrey will pitch with shorter rest, but Swarzak was definitely not the type of guy to put out the fire when runners were on base. He inherited 35 runners this year and allowed 16 of them to score (46%). As a percentage I'm not sure how that stacks up, but he was 51st in number of inherited runners and 6th in number of inherited runners scored, so he probably didn't rank very high in the percentage category. (data from sportingcharts.com)

[Mike Sixel]

My theory is that a HUGE percentage of the time when you need a long man, you are very likely to lose that game anyway......so I'd rather not spend MORE money on that. I don't see them cutting Pelfrey, no.

[James Richter]

The bullpen really hurt the team, especially in the 2nd half. Bringing in a FA stud to set up Perkins and send Fien back to the 7th inning would really help.

 

MLB median for relievers is about 8.5 K/9. Absolutely no reason to keep Swarzak and Duensing around when they have no chance of achieving that rate.

[Thrylos]

The bullpen really hurt the team, especially in the 2nd half. Bringing in a FA stud to set up Perkins and send Fien back to the 7th inning would really help.

 

Pat Neshek is a free agent and GardyNAndy are gone, so... 

 

The bullpen was a week point for the Twins.   I am not convinced that Perkins could and should be the closer.  He looks a lot like Yesterday Eddie, who would had been a set up guy (at best) in a championship team.  Fien and Thielbar are AAAA guys.  Would not mind if the Twins take a chance with Pelfrey as a late inning reliever if healthy.  But this pen does need lots of work... (and 85 mph Milone 'fast'balls won't cut it.)

[highlander]

The other positional breakdowns included minor leaguers. Would really like to see what orginizational depth we have.