Article: Prospects Parked

[bird]

Detroit went all in. They lost their bet. At least they made their bet. I'd rather that happen than wait 29 years to make the playoffs. Or even 6 or 8 years. Sometimes bad things happen even if you do good things.

Glad you revised your statement to admit to last year's efforts which resulted in Hughes and Nolasco. I will just assume your view is that efforts in previous years were so unsatisfactory as to not count. For example, signing Willingham and Correia and Pelfrey and others doesn't count because it was not adequate in your view (shared by many of course).

 

As for Cubans, they didn't sign any, unlike half the clubs, but they scouted them. So, unless you contend they didn't do so in earnest, you are wrong in saying they ignored that option, and could perhaps understand how one could take a charitable view that they simply weren't willing to pay those bidded-up prices, rightly or wrongly.

 

Detroit's fans stand a chance at being frustrated for a long time. Because their strategy results in a depleted farm system and an intractable set of financial obligations extending for long after any success, it's an unsustainable strategy, which you say you prefer? No thanks, mike. It's a stupid strategy. Once their remaining aging vets spit the bit, they could easily go 6-8 years between division titles, because their prospect pipeline is the very worst in all of baseball.

 

At least the Twins are making a smart bet.  The fans will return. Granted, they have to execute, and they have been executing the strategy well lately. And no good strategy takes 29 years, even a poorly executed one, so I don't get your constant reference to that 29 years thing. You DO know that KC didn't follow their strategy for 29 years, right?

[USAFChief]

Of course it doesn't, mike. Which is why they HAVE signed good players and will continue to sign them, but just not in a way that will probably ever satisfy you. They'll never spend enough. For example, spending for Hughes and Nolasco last year wasn't good enough, right? The players will never be good enough. For example, Nolasco isn't good enough, right? 

 

If the Twins did it YOUR way, mike, they'd be in deep doo-doo already, because, in spite of fan protestations, and like almost EVERY club, they'll eventually be financially constrained. Read the Cleveland blogs. The fans are up in arms about their $75 payroll budget. Read Detroit's. They're discussing how the Tigers can possibly extract themselves from a massive mess. You see, they have commitments of over $140M WITHOUT Scherzer and Hunter and Martinez. They can't really afford an outside solution without continuing to pee away cash. Their farm system options? Robbie Ray and Buck Farmer. Look 'em up. The Twins have SEVERAL pitching prospects at AAA alone better than those guys! KC is losing Shields, and they have budget constraints that aggravate their fans too. Fortunately for them, unlike Detroit, they have a decent prospect pipeline.

 

It's a balancing act for EVERY club. The ones going about it with an emphasis on home-grown talent are in better shape moving forward. Because it's the only sustainable and affordable strategy now.

 

My gripe with you, mike, is your posts like this, where you suggest they might consider "signing good players now" as if this is a completely foreign concept to them.

And by doing it their way, the Twins have been in deep doodoo for the last four years, and have in their past been in the same condition for decades at a time.

 

I think we all understand there are limits, and ideally your minor league system provides a good chunk of what is needed. Some of us just have different ideas about how and when to augment that pipeline, and perhaps about what ownerships responsibilities should be.

[Mike Sixel]

Letting Cuddy and others go, and replacing them with cheaper alternatives, while significantly lowering the budget? No, that doesn't really count to me. YMMV. That's not any kind of fact, just my feeling on the matter.

[diehardtwinsfan]

And by doing it their way, the Twins have been in deep doodoo for the last four years, and have in their past been in the same condition for decades at a time.

 

I think we all understand there are limits, and ideally your minor league system provides a good chunk of what is needed. Some of us just have different ideas about how and when to augment that pipeline, and perhaps about what ownerships responsibilities should be.

I think we are getting closer to the how and when though. The minor leagues are brimming with talent that's starting to transition to the show. There's an obvious need for an LF, which could be had for next to nothing other than taking on a bad contract. I'm not sure I'd go get a starter (unless the Twins went all in on Scherzer), but I don't see help in the LF pipeline at all, and given the atrocious nature of our defense last season, this could be easily remedied.

[tobi0040]

I think we are getting closer to the how and when though. The minor leagues are brimming with talent that's starting to transition to the show. There's an obvious need for an LF, which could be had for next to nothing other than taking on a bad contract. I'm not sure I'd go get a starter (unless the Twins went all in on Scherzer), but I don't see help in the LF pipeline at all, and given the atrocious nature of our defense last season, this could be easily remedied.

 

Here is a ranking of free agents.  LF is very weak. 

 

They say Tomas has questionable defense and will get $100M.  No thanks. 

 

Melky will get 3/40 and is a liability in LF.   

 

Rasmus 3/36 seems like the only real shot at upgrading both defensively and offensively, IMO.

 

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/mlb/49665/2/the-top-150-free-agents?pg=2

Edited October 31, 2014 by tobi0040

[Steven Buhr]

Acknowledging that I tend to get overly optimistic when I watch some of the Twins' prospects, I'll just say I'm coming around to the idea of giving Eddie Rosario a legit shot to win the LF job (maybe even CF) out of Spring Training. Good range, strong arm and making really good contact down here in AFL.

[tobi0040]

Acknowledging that I tend to get overly optimistic when I watch some of the Twins' prospects, I'll just say I'm coming around to the idea of giving Eddie Rosario a legit shot to win the LF job (maybe even CF) out of Spring Training. Good range, strong arm and making really good contact down here in AFL.

 

I am okay with that.  A former center fielder HAS to be a plus defender in LF.  And the guy has hit everywhere he has been. 

[ashbury]

It seems Rosario is impressing everyone who sees him in person in Arizona this fall.

[Zachary]

Yeah I worry most about the "unlucky" being turned into "injury prone."

[TheLeviathan]

Yeah I worry most about the "unlucky" being turned into "injury prone."

Some guys are gifted with the ability to keep finding "unlucky" injuries. I sure hope that isn't this kid.

[Willihammer]

Not too worried about the finger. A break is a break. Its not hard to see the wrist and brain things recurring though.

[Thrylos]

The injuries are out of the GM's control.

 

Are we sure that the predictabiliity of injuries is out of the GM's control?  Is this an area where the Twins are using all available data and analysis?

 

Much as I disdain how Houston handled the last draft, they do sem to be using more anaylsis.

(And yes, I know that the data is limited on dratees but that wouldn't be true for international if they were willing to pony up for it.)

 

 

Injuries are not out of the GM's or the manager's or the Minor League director's control.  Certain people are injury-prone.  Buxton is one of them.  Let see them starting to fine him $500 for any head first slide and every dive out there in meaningless games.  And all MiLB games are meaningless.

 

I think that injury-proneness should be a factor in prospect rankings.  And having TJ surgery or knee surgery or something because of an one time event, is much different that injuring body part after body part because you are reckless.  And I would have to be convinced that Buxton is not reckless at this point.  And the Twins should do something to protect their investment.

[jokin]

Injuries are not out of the GM's or the manager's or the Minor League director's control.  Certain people are injury-prone.  Buxton is one of them.  Let see them starting to fine him $500 for any head first slide and every dive out there in meaningless games.  And all MiLB games are meaningless.

 

I think that injury-proneness should be a factor in prospect rankings.  And having TJ surgery or knee surgery or something because of an one time event, is much different that injuring body part after body part because you are reckless.  And I would have to be convinced that Buxton is not reckless at this point.  And the Twins should do something to protect their investment.

 

Thankyou, it's what Ive been saying for quite some time.  Buck is a 20 year old freakishly athletic kid, who like all kids that age think they're indestructible.  Obviously, he's not, and it behooves the Twins, what with their huge invesmtent in him, to convince him this season is proof that it's time to start playing smart, wrist injuries and concussions can lead to much-shortened careers.

[jokin]

Acknowledging that I tend to get overly optimistic when I watch some of the Twins' prospects, I'll just say I'm coming around to the idea of giving Eddie Rosario a legit shot to win the LF job (maybe even CF) out of Spring Training. Good range, strong arm and making really good contact down here in AFL.

 

One thing that stands out is his 11 SBs (counting the All Star game).  I didn't realize what a threat he is on the basepaths.  Of course the power has dropped off significantly... have you noticed a significant change in his approach at the plate (perhaps working with a different coach down there?). 

 

Can it really be that this kid has put all of the bad stuff behind him?  I'm skeptical that he has put it all together just yet, but I've no doubt that the talent is there, but when?

[old nurse]

Uh, the Cards sign free agents, and trade for veterans.

 

My argument remains that they have failed to mitigate that risk, by signing bad players, and wasting money and roster spots on them.

Wow.  The list of bad players signed, extended, traded for or drafted is much much longer than the list of good for last year.

[jorgenswest]

I am okay with that.  A former center fielder HAS to be a plus defender in LF.  And the guy has hit everywhere he has been.

 

I am not sure about the HAS to be. It is not uncommon to play CF on the minors. Oswaldo Arcia played CF through Elizabethton. Until this season, Rosario had the same experience.

 

I don't doubt that Rosario will have more range than Arcia though. His bat in a corner is the bigger question. He should do enough good things in LF to be at least close to average with the glove. Maybe he will be similar to Schafer who has the speed but poor instincts negate that speed.

 

The Twins won't know if Rosario can be a solution in LF unless he gets a long look. That look needs to start early this season. It can't happen if they fill the spot with a decline phase veteran as a short term patch.

[Mike Sixel]

I'd be ok just handing the job to Rosario at this point. Unless they go out and really try to compete this year, I'd rather they just go young. New manager has time to indoctrinate the players in his approach.

[bird]

And by doing it their way, the Twins have been in deep doodoo for the last four years, and have in their past been in the same condition for decades at a time.

 

I think we all understand there are limits, and ideally your minor league system provides a good chunk of what is needed. Some of us just have different ideas about how and when to augment that pipeline, and perhaps about what ownerships responsibilities should be.

The futility of the last four years is not a product of a failed strategy.  It's in part the price paid for some poor execution, some mistakes, and some bad luck, but it's also a by-product of a patient and reasonable rebuild strategy, in my opinion.

 

We need to view the results from a decade ago in context, recognizing that the Twins have in fact adapted (maybe not well or quickly for sure) to changes in the financial picture, starting with revenue-sharing, TV contracts (yes, I know about the latest one) and stadium revenues. I just don't think one can lump the futility of the 90's in with these last four years. I'm of course an optimist and therefore expect to see some moves we may not have seen before.

 

And I get the frustration, and the argument, for augmenting the pipeline to a greater extent than they've done. I was critical of Ryan's off-season moves the year before the first 90-loss season and also two years later. But I always seem to get back to the question of whether, with a $125M budget in each of the past three years since the rebuild began, any GM in baseball could've pieced together a division winner, and if so, what kind of mess would there be heading into 2015 in terms of bad contracts and serious financial constraints. 

 

I think the last part of it, the emotionally-charged topic of the perceived obligations of ownership, is one you and I are likely to continue to respectfully disagree about. I vote on that subject with my wallet and have an admittedly unorthodox take on the subject. Best for me not to go there, Chief.

[tobi0040]

I am not sure about the HAS to be. It is not uncommon to play CF on the minors. Oswaldo Arcia played CF through Elizabethton. Until this season, Rosario had the same experience.

 

I don't doubt that Rosario will have more range than Arcia though. His bat in a corner is the bigger question. He should do enough good things in LF to be at least close to average with the glove. Maybe he will be similar to Schafer who has the speed but poor instincts negate that speed.

 

The Twins won't know if Rosario can be a solution in LF unless he gets a long look. That look needs to start early this season. It can't happen if they fill the spot with a decline phase veteran as a short term patch.

 

My understanding is Rosario could still play CF, but they moved him because of Buxton. I agree the question is his bat, but I think 30-40 2B and 10-15 HR is not out of the question for him.

Edited November 3, 2014 by tobi0040

[nicksaviking]

 

Detroit's fans stand a chance at being frustrated for a long time. Because their strategy results in a depleted farm system and an intractable set of financial obligations extending for long after any success, it's an unsustainable strategy, which you say you prefer? No thanks, mike. It's a stupid strategy. Once their remaining aging vets spit the bit, they could easily go 6-8 years between division titles, because their prospect pipeline is the very worst in all of baseball.

 

I don't want the Twins to go hogwild in free agency because the market looks awful this year.  But Detroit's fans won't have to be frustrated that long.  Only Cabrera is under contract for more than the next six years and all but he and Verlander are off the books by 2018. 

 

So if you're going to be critical of the Tigers and a possible 4-6 year low point, I fail to see how you can continue to defend the Twins when they are begninning year 5.

[tobi0040]

I don't want the Twins to go hogwild in free agency because the market looks awful this year.  But Detroit's fans won't have to be frustrated that long.  Only Cabrera is under contract for more than the next six years and all but he and Verlander are off the books by 2018. 

 

So if you're going to be critical of the Tigers and a possible 4-6 year low point, I fail to see how you can continue to defend the Twins when they are begninning year 5.

 

I would guess most teams have very few commitments more than 6 years.  The Twins have no contracts out more than four.

[nicksaviking]

I would guess most teams have very few commitments more than 6 years.  The Twins have no contracts out more than four.

 

Just as I prefer it.  I do however see a bit of hypocrasy in chastising a team that may experience muliple years of losing due to large but unproductive contracts when the team you're defending is losing for a similar or longer period of time.

[tobi0040]

Just as I prefer it.  I do however see a bit of hypocrasy in chastising a team that may experience muliple years of losing due to large but unproductive contracts when the team you're defending is losing for a similar or longer period of time.

 

Yeah.  Detriot is not really a model.  Their owner is cut from a different cloth. He won't be here in seven years and wants to win a world series and could care less about finances.  What is a $20-$30M loss to a guy worth a few billion dollars?  It is a different viewpoint.

 

Very few, if any owners have that perspective.

Edited November 3, 2014 by tobi0040

[stringer bell]

Is Aaron Hicks injured? He hasn't played in Venezuela in more than a week. BTW, he is hitting .220 with a .661 OPS, not exactly making a claim.

[maxisagod]

Is Aaron Hicks injured? He hasn't played in Venezuela in more than a week. BTW, he is hitting .220 with a .661 OPS, not exactly making a claim.

Wedding.

http://www.theknot.com/wedding/Aaron-Lauren

 

I think he should have played through it. Congrats to him and his wife! 

[diehardtwinsfan]

Acknowledging that I tend to get overly optimistic when I watch some of the Twins' prospects, I'll just say I'm coming around to the idea of giving Eddie Rosario a legit shot to win the LF job (maybe even CF) out of Spring Training. Good range, strong arm and making really good contact down here in AFL.

Personally, I'm not ready for that. I'd rather they go out and get someone for 2 or 3 years as Harrison/ABW probably are going to need at least 2 years until they are ready. Rosario, FWIW, was outperformed by Hicks in AA. Keep that in mind. While he certainly lit things up in the AFL, I'd feel much more comfortable with him if he could put together a .800 OPS season in AA/AAA first.

[bird]

I don't want the Twins to go hogwild in free agency because the market looks awful this year.  But Detroit's fans won't have to be frustrated that long.  Only Cabrera is under contract for more than the next six years and all but he and Verlander are off the books by 2018. 

 

So if you're going to be critical of the Tigers and a possible 4-6 year low point, I fail to see how you can continue to defend the Twins when they are begninning year 5.

Let me clarify on the Tigers. It's not just the fact that maybe a couple players will be unproductive at the end of a contract. The main obstacle for them will be replacing those players, filling many holes at once, not one or two, at a time when their farm system is pretty barren and they still have a few huge contract obligations. 

 

To me, the major difference in approaches is that, when the Twins hit bottom in terms of the farm system, it was a close-to-average average talent pool, and three years later, it's now one of the best, and maybe as loaded with talent as any time in franchise history. By contrast, the Tiger's system has now hit bottom, and it IS truly horrid.

 

The Twins refused to trade away prospects in an attempt to avoid its 4-year losing streak, even though they had assets to trade.  And they refused to delve into the deep end of the FA pool, rightly in my opinion. In contrast, the Tigers used FA and their prospect pipeline in trades to go all in.

 

The Tigers now find themselves caught between a rock and hard place. They don't have prospects to trade themselves out of a likely decline, or to bolster the roster. Buck Farmer and Robbie Ray are poor alternatives to Scherzer. They'll probably overpay for Melky and make a couple of additional moves like that out of desperation, and maybe, just maybe, buy themselves one more division title or wild card one-and-done in 2015, But if, as happens more often than not, two starters go down, they start to look like, God forbid, the Sox and the Twins, except old, out of "financial flexibility", and pathetically low on prospects, with many holes to fill, not one or two.

 

Teams can, or at least used to be able to buy a championship when they were in mid-cycle talent-wise, like the Tigers did, using FA and prospects via trades. But the time comes when the bill has to be paid. To build a sustainable level of on-field excellence requires a vast majority of your talent to be home-grown, and even then teams have to get lucky and avoid mistakes that set it back. You know, like Capps for Ramos and Hardy for Hoey.

 

Oh, and let's be clear about the fact that this current off-season is only the third off-season of the rebuild effort. People keep trying to throw out these five and six year numbers.

Edited November 12, 2014 by bird

[Mike Sixel]

Isn't that the natural cycle you always post about? How could the Tigers have a good farm system if they are drafting late all the time lately? And, isn't your argument that is only sustainable for about 10 years or so doing it the Twins way? How many years will the Tigers be good/great, then bad, then good/great again? Isn't the cycle about the same?

[jokin]

Oh, and let's be clear about the fact that this current off-season is only the third off-season of the rebuild effort.

 

People keep trying to throw out these five and six year numbers.

 

I just wish people weren't so unrealistically positive when "throwing out these five and six year numbers" when it comes to the Twins.

 

Your math is off.  We are now in the midst of the fourth off-season of the rebuild, not the third, 2011-2015, and the Twins have already sent signals about off-season moves and 2015 payroll projections that Year Five of non-competitiveness is all but assured.  And sadly, that is highly reflective of the Twins history since the 70s of the typical rebuild being of at least five bad years, followed by a number of bad/mediocre  years as they finally accept the need for more comprehensive roster turnover.

 

Here are the positive+++ and negative--- cycles for the Twins since '62.

 

 

 

 

+++ 1962-1970 Mostly strong years, two mediocre.  9 years.

---    1971-1986 Mediocre to bad  SIXTEEN YEARS

+++ 1987-1992 Mostly good years with one bad.  6 years

---    1993-2000  Bad, bad, bad  EIGHT YEARS

+++  2001-2010 Very competitive, one season under .500. 10 years

---    2011-2014 Thank God for the Stros.  FOUR YEARS & ???

 

 The Twins have a few rookies dipping their toes in the major league water, but the projected impact prospects still have quite a ways to go before this team will be worthy of regaining the title "perennial legit contender."  Hopefully, it can be before 2019.

Edited November 13, 2014 by jokin

[JB_Iowa]

http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2014/11/13/twinsights-aaron-hicks-released-venezuelan-winter-team/

 

Not good news ... and have to wonder if there was more to it than a slump.  Glynn was a coach so this could be interesting.