Article: Prospects Parked

[Nick Nelson]

Byron Buxton goes by the nickname "Buck." I'm told it's a shortening of his last name, but at this point I'm wondering if it isn't more appropriately a shortening of the words "bad luck."

 

The tweet from William Boor, a reporter on scene at the Arizona Fall League on Monday, felt like some sort of cruel cosmic joke:

 

#Twins prospect Byron Buxton, MLB.coms top prospect, just left today's #AFL14 game with an injury. Looked like he hurt wrist diving for ball

 

It evoked a nauseating feeling that was all too familiar.Buxton's season in the minors was obliterated by injuries, each one somewhat freakish in nature. He sprained a wrist in spring training, then reinjured the same wrist, then took a painful fastball to the other wrist, and ended his campaign with a knockout concussion in the outfield.

 

When I pondered this summer whether the Twins are the unluckiest team in baseball, that sentiment stemmed largely from the plight of their star prospect. Buxton is the top asset in the organization, and the centerpiece of their rebuilding effort.

 

This time Buxton has a fractured finger, which is at least preferable to a wrist aggravation, but his AFL season is done. He'll once again be shut down before he really gets a chance to get going. It has truly been a lost season for the premier young talent in the game.

 

So if Terry Ryan seems cautious about raising expectations for next year's team, I guess it's not hard to see why. Much speculation is surrounding the manager search right now, and that will soon give way to hot stove buzz as free agency heats up, but neither a new skipper nor an expensive veteran addition is going to fuel a turnaround for this club.

 

That responsibility rests upon the young internally developed core led by Buxton. And he's not the only one who's been struck by setbacks. Miguel Sano lost his whole season to Tommy John surgery, and is sitting out winter ball. Eddie Rosario, who ranked as the organization's third-best positional prospect, lost nearly half his season to a drug suspension and scuffled after returning, though he's currently raking in the AFL.

 

Had things gone to plan, all three would have started the 2014 season in Double-A and would likely be angling for big-league jobs next spring. Instead, all three will likely start at Double-A next year, with much to prove.

 

That's why I cut Ryan quite a bit of slack for the franchise's stalling rebuild. While bad decisions have been made, these prospect developments have been far more impactful and have been entirely out of his control.

 

But here's some food for thought: If you believe in Doug Mientkiewicz's managerial muster, you might actually be pleased by the rumblings that he could end up managing at Chattanooga next season.

 

Overseeing and assisting the returns of Buxton, Sano and Rosario -- not to mention the rise of top pitching prospect J.O. Berrios, who is likely to start there -- could be the most important job in the organization in 2015.

 

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[Seth Stohs]

Charley Walters is funny. He was actually with the Twins for a part of his life, but his Twins "notes" are always so far behind everyone else. The Mientkiewicz to Chattanooga thing came out about a month ago in an interview with Patrick Reusse on 1500ESPN. He didn't say it, but he was certainly dancing around it enough to make it pretty clear that if he wasn't the Twins manager, he would be moving up.

 

Definitely just some bad luck for Buxton. I hope they don't try to stop him from diving in the outfield. 

[Nick Nelson]

Yeah, I remember that. I just linked to Walters because it was the latest mention. I'd love to see Mientkiewicz in charge of getting those guys going again at Double-A. He knows them. 

[Dantes929]

Its not the diving.  Its the landing.   I personally would not mind a moratorium on his diving for one year.    I also love the head first slide into bases but wouldn't mind if he stopped that as well.     I am big on defense but he needs to stay healthy enough and for a long enough time to develop and show what he can do offensively.   .

[Blackjack]

 

Definitely just some bad luck for Buxton. I hope they don't try to stop him from diving in the outfield. 

 

I hope that his next injury is not career threatening, like Jason Kubel blowing out his knee.  So far hes been 'lucky', all his injuries have been able to heal. Another concussion wouldn't be good either.

[Linus]

I disagree that Buxton, Sano, and Rosario have to lead the turnaround.  Their offense is fine and their two main problems: starting pitching and outfield defense can be basically fixed or made acceptable with a couple key additions.

 

It will be great when those guys get here but we don't have to wait until then for the winning to start.

[TFelton]

Wasn't Doug M to Fort Myers somehow family related as I remember?  What was the story there and assuming he moves, I assume that situation has changed?

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm getting a bit more concerned about Buxton just in general. Even when healthy he hasn't exactly produced this year. It would be nice to see him hit the ground running next season like he did last year, but this season has been completely lost. He's a pretty key piece in the rebuild, as there really isn't a whole lot to replace him with (unless Hicks can re-establish himself or Rosario's AFL surge is for real). I'm a bit less worried about Sano, but I'd like to see him hit the ground running next season. Between Walker and Sano, our AA team should have some pretty nice power.

[tobi0040]

Charley Walters is funny. He was actually with the Twins for a part of his life, but his Twins "notes" are always so far behind everyone else. The Mientkiewicz to Chattanooga thing came out about a month ago in an interview with Patrick Reusse on 1500ESPN. He didn't say it, but he was certainly dancing around it enough to make it pretty clear that if he wasn't the Twins manager, he would be moving up.

 

Definitely just some bad luck for Buxton. I hope they don't try to stop him from diving in the outfield. 

 

The best part of Charlie is he LOVES Cretin.  I will never forget a note in his quick hits about ten years ago, during the non-football season.

 

"So and So, assistant football coach at Cretin Derham Hall, underwent minor knee surgery Tuesday"

 

Thanks Charlie.

[Mike Sixel]

Prospects get hurt. They fail. Waiting for them and ignoring other options, like cubans, to fill your roster, is a long, slow, process. It sometimes takes decades.

[bird]

Prospects get hurt. They fail. Waiting for them and ignoring other options, like cubans, to fill your roster, is a long, slow, process. It sometimes takes decades.

I gotta hand it to you, mike, that's an impressive segue from being snake-bitten to "ignoring" other options like cubans.

 

The delay in seeing Sano and Buxton has hurt because they aren't just your run-of-the-mill prospects. They hold the promise of being the  type that DOES only come around once a decade for an organization. And we've had so many injuries to pitching prospects who've been ranked as top 25 guys: Wimmers, Chargois, Bard, Rosario, Romero, Williams, Melotakis, and Gibson.

 

Thankfully, the system is so deep that we've had the edge taken off of these injuries by Arcia, Santana, Vargas, Pinto, and Hicks, and Polanco and Rosario are close. Mike, I'm not sure Chicago has three prospects in their entire system with more upside than these 7 guys, and they surely don't have any to match up with Sano and Buxton. So naturally, it made sense for the Sox to take a huge risk on Abreu, who helped them leapfrog the Twins into 4th place in the division.

 

Rather than focusing on how snakebite the Twins have been, I'm celebrating the fact that, even with all those TJ's, we have 3 pitchers ranked among the top 40 prospects in all of baseball in Meyer, Berrios, and Stewart, and that we have so many young prospects in addition to the injured ones, some of whom will NOT fail, on the cusp: guys like Burdi, Reed, Tonkin, Jones, May, Meyer, and Berrios.

 

Contrary to your statement, mike, the Twins have not ignored other options. Wasn't Hughes another option? It might be hard to accept, but maybe they just reject your idea that overpaying (by their definition of the term) is prudent for the likes of Puig and Abreu, particularly at this stage of the rebuild. Maybe they really believe, like our idolized Cards, that going the FA route is something you do as an absolute last resort if you plan to sustain your level of success. 

 

And if filling your roster is going to take you decades, THEN you have a legitimate gripe about your GM.

[Mike Sixel]

Uh, the Cards sign free agents, and trade for veterans.

 

The point on being snake bitten, is that all players carry risk. Even sure fire guys that are supposed to be elite carry risk. My argument remains that they have failed to mitigate that risk, by signing bad players, and wasting money and roster spots on them. My argument is that I don't want to wait decades, I don't even want to wait six years. Others are willing to wait, but given ticket sales, I am guessing most fans agree with me.

[Nick Nelson]

The point on being snake bitten, is that all players carry risk. Even sure fire guys that are supposed to be elite carry risk. My argument remains that they have failed to mitigate that risk, by signing bad players, and wasting money and roster spots on them. My argument is that I don't want to wait decades, I don't even want to wait six years. Others are willing to wait, but given ticket sales, I am guessing most fans agree with me.

 

It's a fair point, and I too have been disappointed by their general lack of aggressiveness in pursuing upgrades, but in hindsight all that was going to do was secure a few extra wins, pushing their draft slots back at the expense of millions of dollars. No amount of offseason maneuvering was going to push them from 65 wins to 90 wins.

 

I still think they should continue to seek quality players to supplement their emerging core, but until that core begins to establish itself and produce, nothing else matters all that much. And while it's true that prospects are hard to trust (as we've been seeing) the Twins have an elite group and that's a far better formula for returning to contention than simply throwing money at the problem.

[tobi0040]

It's a fair point, and I too have been disappointed by their general lack of aggressiveness in pursuing upgrades, but in hindsight all that was going to do was secure a few extra wins, pushing their draft slots back at the expense of millions of dollars. No amount of offseason maneuvering was going to push them from 65 wins to 90 wins.

 

I still think they should continue to seek quality players to supplement their emerging core, but until that core begins to establish itself and produce, nothing else matters all that much. And while it's true that prospects are hard to trust (as we've been seeing) the Twins have an elite group and that's a far better formula for returning to contention than simply throwing money at the problem.

 

Some subsribe to the philosophy that the culture and acceptance level to mediocrity needs to change.  That may help with the culture and attract others here.  Like Joe Maddon, or maybe another free agent.

 

I just think that no one player will add 25 wins, but using that logic will prevent from ever adding anyone.  Especially in the context of Abreu, the guy has a 6 years deal. 

[Linus]

It's a fair point, and I too have been disappointed by their general lack of aggressiveness in pursuing upgrades, but in hindsight all that was going to do was secure a few extra wins, pushing their draft slots back at the expense of millions of dollars. No amount of offseason maneuvering was going to push them from 65 wins to 90 wins.

 

I still think they should continue to seek quality players to supplement their emerging core, but until that core begins to establish itself and produce, nothing else matters all that much. And while it's true that prospects are hard to trust (as we've been seeing) the Twins have an elite group and that's a far better formula for returning to contention than simply throwing money at the problem.

I guess this is my point.  The core isn't emerging - it has emerged, albeit without Buxton and Sano.  There is nothing wrong with winning next regardless whether Buxton and Sano are there or are ever there.

 

Go get a Hughes level pitcher and colby Rasmus and we are at .500 or better which puts us in the second wild card race most of the year.

[bird]

Uh, the Cards sign free agents, and trade for veterans.

 

The point on being snake bitten, is that all players carry risk. Even sure fire guys that are supposed to be elite carry risk. My argument remains that they have failed to mitigate that risk, by signing bad players, and wasting money and roster spots on them. My argument is that I don't want to wait decades, I don't even want to wait six years. Others are willing to wait, but given ticket sales, I am guessing most fans agree with me.

Uh, the Twins sign free agents, and trade for veterans.

 

I was responding to your original point, which was that the Twins ignore other options like cubans.

 

It appears you want to discuss their lack of execution now. I'll simply point out that yes, they've signed bad players and they've wasted roster spots and money on them. That's not unique to this franchise, is it? To balance that out, I'd point out that they've signed good players and used money and roster spots productively. 

 

Back to the original topic, which was about how injuries, something out of a GM's control, have affected the timetable. I'm personally satisfied with the degree to which they've paid attention to other options, including Cubans. You are mistaken in saying they have ignored even the Cuban market, BTW. I agree with Nick. Had the Twins made the level of expenditures on free agents that would have satisfied all but one person here on TD , I'm not sure they'd have an appreciably shorter timetable to a division title, but I'm absolutely positive that they would lack future finanical flexibility to retain our future budding stars.

 

Now, we can talk turkey about filling the last couple of holes via other options rather than waiting for, say, Thorpe, Stewart, and Jorge. But the two things that allow that conversation to be meaningful are that 1) we've got most of the holes projected as filled now, and 2) the timing is more conducive to perhaps signing or trading for just the right missing piece.

[JB_Iowa]

Back to the original topic, which was about how injuries, something out of a GM's control, have affected the timetable. 

 

The injuries are out of the GM's control.

 

Are we sure that the predictabiliity of injuries is out of the GM's control?  Is this an area where the Twins are using all available data and analysis?

 

Much as I disdain how Houston handled the last draft, they do sem to be using more anaylsis.

(And yes, I know that the data is limited on dratees but that wouldn't be true for international if they were willing to pony up for it.)

[nicksaviking]

I guess this is my point.  The core isn't emerging - it has emerged, albeit without Buxton and Sano.  There is nothing wrong with winning next regardless whether Buxton and Sano are there or are ever there.

 

Go get a Hughes level pitcher and colby Rasmus and we are at .500 or better which puts us in the second wild card race most of the year.

 

Colby Rasmus making this team a .500 ballclub seems like pretty high expectations.

 

I like his pop and he can play decent defense, but that guy's got some serious strikeout and walk issues.  I think for a contending team he'd merely be a platoon/4th OF.

[nicksaviking]

Byron Buxton goes by the nickname "Buck." I'm told it's a shortening of his last name, but at this point I'm wondering if it isn't more appropriately a shortening of the words "bad luck."

 

As long as it's not short for "The Buck stops here."

[tobi0040]

Colby Rasmus making this team a .500 ballclub seems like pretty high expectations.

 

I like his pop and he can play decent defense, but that guy's got some serious strikeout and walk issues.  I think for a contending team he'd merely be a platoon/4th OF.

 

I think he could help this team quite a bit.  Nowhere near a six win improvement though (6 for him and 6 for a starter).  Walk and K issues aside, he has been around 20 HR and 20 2B the last three years while missing time.  And he has a total dWAR of 2 over the last three years in center.  Which tells me he would be a drastic improvement in LF or RF.

[Linus]

Colby Rasmus making this team a .500 ballclub seems like pretty high expectations.

 

I like his pop and he can play decent defense, but that guy's got some serious strikeout and walk issues.  I think for a contending team he'd merely be a platoon/4th OF.

He is the secondary piece - what will get them to .500 is the Hughes level pitcher they need to add.

[bird]

The injuries are out of the GM's control.

 

Are we sure that the predictabiliity of injuries is out of the GM's control?  Is this an area where the Twins are using all available data and analysis?

 

Much as I disdain how Houston handled the last draft, they do sem to be using more anaylsis.

(And yes, I know that the data is limited on dratees but that wouldn't be true for international if they were willing to pony up for it.)

It would be tough to argue that a lot of the injuries could have been predicted or prevented, although I suppose one could find anecdotal cases about pre-existing injury histories and make a rather flimsy case. I've wondered about this myself as it relates to the rigorous examination of medical records, which you have to assume are submitted to every club in a standardized way. And I have this vague recollection that the Twins went through a review process pertaining to this, but may be mistaken here.  

[Mike Sixel]

Their future budding stars are five or six years from being paid. I doubt signing good players now effects that.

[Eephus]

The injuries are out of the GM's control.

 

Are we sure that the predictabiliity of injuries is out of the GM's control?  Is this an area where the Twins are using all available data and analysis?

 

Much as I disdain how Houston handled the last draft, they do sem to be using more anaylsis.

(And yes, I know that the data is limited on dratees but that wouldn't be true for international if they were willing to pony up for it.)

I'm curious if there is any history of Buxton being hurt either in previous minor league seasons or in high school (including other sports he might have played). A concussion is pretty uncontrollable, but bruised wrists and a broken finger seems to have "injury-prone" ring to them. Not to imply he's soft, but maybe he gets hurt a lot. It happens. If no track record exists, then I'd say this is just a tough luck stretch. My bet is on bad luck.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think it's time to try the reverse jinx against him... every time I've said something remotely negative in the past, he's turned around and proved me wrong in spectacular fashion... Therefore....

 

 

Buxton will never make the majors.

 

 

[Senior Softball Guy]

Last year was outlier for Nolasco. If we cut him loose, he'd win 12 games for someone else and the knee jerk fan base will say "why di we get rid of him'. I think a solid rebound from Nolasko, continued improvement fro Gibson-May and Hughes will be more than enough for this coming year. Calm the hell down!

[Linus]

I believe all of these injuries can be easily explained.  Its Dick Martin's fault.............

 

(long time Twins trainer in the Kelly era and before)

[bird]

Their future budding stars are five or six years from being paid. I doubt signing good players now effects that.

Of course it doesn't, mike. Which is why they HAVE signed good players and will continue to sign them, but just not in a way that will probably ever satisfy you. They'll never spend enough. For example, spending for Hughes and Nolasco last year wasn't good enough, right? The players will never be good enough. For example, Nolasco isn't good enough, right? 

 

If the Twins did it YOUR way, mike, they'd be in deep doo-doo already, because, in spite of fan protestations, and like almost EVERY club, they'll eventually be financially constrained. Read the Cleveland blogs. The fans are up in arms about their $75 payroll budget. Read Detroit's. They're discussing how the Tigers can possibly extract themselves from a massive mess. You see, they have commitments of over $140M WITHOUT Scherzer and Hunter and Martinez. They can't really afford an outside solution without continuing to pee away cash. Their farm system options? Robbie Ray and Buck Farmer. Look 'em up. The Twins have SEVERAL pitching prospects at AAA alone better than those guys! KC is losing Shields, and they have budget constraints that aggravate their fans too. Fortunately for them, unlike Detroit, they have a decent prospect pipeline.

 

It's a balancing act for EVERY club. The ones going about it with an emphasis on home-grown talent are in better shape moving forward. Because it's the only sustainable and affordable strategy now.

 

My gripe with you, mike, is your posts like this, where you suggest they might consider "signing good players now" as if this is a completely foreign concept to them.

Edited October 30, 2014 by bird

[Mike Sixel]

Until last year, it was. Last year they broke their mold. One point does not a trend make. If they do it again, then I'll go from wondering if they'll sign "expensive" FAs, to analyzing more how well they do it. Until last year, they pretty much went cheap/not at all. Last year they tried. 

 

I don't quite yet know how to judge last year. They got 1 medium/long term asset, one short term asset, and a bunch of really bad players (one of whom is signed for several more years, and could turn it around or not).

 

I will disagree with you on one earlier point, I don't recall them signing a Cuban in the last few years, while some 15 clubs have*

 

*someone posted that number last week, don't know if it is true or not

[Mike Sixel]

Detroit went all in. They lost their bet. At least they made their bet. I'd rather that happen than wait 29 years to make the playoffs. Or even 6 or 8 years. Sometimes bad things happen even if you do good things.