Article: ...and Then There Were Three

[Steven Buhr]

It was three-and-a-half weeks ago that General Manager Terry Ryan announced that manager Ron Gardenhire would not be returning to his job in 2015, and we still don’t know who will be guiding the Twins on the field next season.

 

But we’re getting closer.After considering, by my count, at least seven or eight candidates during the first two weeks of the offseason, Ryan set aside the managerial search while he holed up in Fort Myers with his staff for their annual week of postseason organizational meetings, though reports are that he did find time for a second interview with Doug Mientkiewicz while in Florida.

 

Coming out of those meetings, media reports indicate that several candidates have been informed they are no longer being considered and, while the Twins are characteristically tight-lipped on the subject, it appears that the list of potential skippers has been whittled down to three: Paul Molitor, Doug Mientkiewicz and Torey Lovullo.

 

Looking at them, it would appear that there isn’t a lot of difference. All three are white, middle-aged men. Mientkiewicz is the youngest, at 40. Molitor the oldest at 58. Lovullo splits the difference at 49.

 

There's not a lot of “diversity” readily apparent by looking at them, so if Ryan is going to make good on his pledge to add more of a Latin presence on the staff, it will need to come from among the coaches that he and the eventual manager hire.

 

But when you dig deeper, you see that there are plenty of differences among these three gentlemen and if you’re the Twins, you have an opportunity to make a statement with this hire concerning what traits are most important to you, as an organization. The question is, what kind of statement are you looking to make?

http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/Molitor.jpg

Paul Molitor (Photo: SD Buhr)

If you’re looking to say, “We have a youth movement brewing and we are going to do what we did when we hired Tom Kelly – hire a manager who has already spent time watching, evaluating and coaching the young players who will form the core of the next generation of Twins players,” then your first choice is Mientkiewicz. He has had two successful seasons in Fort Myers while managing Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Jose Berrios and the rest of a very talented “class” of minor leaguers currently rising through the ranks.

 

Paul Molitor gets a few points in this category, too, however. He spent time as a roving minor league instructor prior to his one season on the Twins major league bench, so he also has a lot of familiarity with these rising stars.

 

If the statement the Twins want to make is, "We want the most qualified man for the job of managing a Major League baseball team," the decision becomes a bit murkier.

 

Molitor does not have a single day of experience as a manager at any level of professional baseball. If managing only involved the work required between the time you fill out a line-up card and the final pitch of the game, I don’t think experience would be an issue for Molitor. It’s hard to imagine any circumstance arising that he has not prepared for during his Hall of Fame playing career and his time on coaching staffs at various levels. Anyone who has had even a short conversation with him about baseball will likely tell you that his baseball IQ level is off the charts. Also (and this is important), he apparently understands that he can always learn more and is open to doing so.

 

But game management is not all a manager has to do. There’s media relations and public relations and front office communication and clubhouse relations… and… and…

 

It’s a big job and while I don’t think it’s impossible for someone who has never managed at any level before to be successful, I do think that having some amount of experience in a managerial position is helpful. Without it, Molitor would very much be “learning on the job” when it comes to off-the-field aspects of the position for a year or two.

 

For whatever reasons, family or otherwise, Molitor has chosen not to take opportunities to get that experience by managing at the minor league levels. Should that disqualify him from consideration? Absolutely not. Should he get a free pass on this factor if other qualified candidates have emerged who HAVE that experience? No. He made the decision not to take that route and if that turns out to be a determining factor in him not getting the job this time, so be it.

 

If the Twins had narrowed their choices down to Mientkiewicz and Molitor, I would not consider the former’s two years in the Fort Myers dugout to be much, if any, of an advantage. Other managers in the Twins organization, such as Gene Glynn (AAA), Jeff Smith (AA), Jake Mauer (low A) and Ray Smith (rookie) all have far more minor league managerial experience than Mientkiewicz.

 

Yes, Mientkiewicz has had successful teams both years in Fort Myers, but take a look at his rosters those two years. If you can’t win a few games with those guys, you really are in the wrong line of work.

 

Personality-wise, you have very different men. Molitor seems to bring a cerebral intensity to the game, while Mientkiewicz is all about the fire and he doesn’t even pretend to contain it.

 

Both would bring a familiarity with the Twins organization to the job, without the baggage of being one of “Gardy’s boys.” There are various reports and rumors out there concerning how well (or not well) these guys got along with the Twins’ former manager, but it’s probably safe to say neither would be prone to adopting any approach to managing simply because that was the way Ron Gardenhire would have done it.

 

So, depending on what he decides is the most important quality in a manager, Terry Ryan has an acceptable internal choice in either Molitor or Mientkiewicz.

 

Want someone who will get in the face of players and umpires? Doug’s your guy.

 

Want a brilliant baseball mind? I doubt you could do better than Molitor.

 

Want someone open to utilizing more advanced analytics? Molitor appears so inclined, though there are indications Mientkiewicz is more of a “gut feel” kind of guy (though, to be fair, the amount of detailed analytics available to minor league managers is limited and their job is more to develop talent than to win games).

 

Want someone who has the credentials as a player to garner respect among the troops? Molitor’s a Hall of Famer and Mientkiewicz has a World Series ring and sufficient MLB experience to give him plenty of credibility.

 

If you want someone familiar with the players who are moving up through the organization and are preparing to arrive at Target Field over the next two or three years, both men have that familiarity, though in somewhat different amounts.

 

The only thing neither man has would be the “fresh set of eyes” that some would consider helpful, if not critical, to this organization.

 

Which brings us to the third finalist for the Twins managerial job, Torey Lovullo.

 

Lovullo has nine years of experience managing in the minor leagues, including time at both the AA and AAA levels, which neither internal candidate can say. There is little doubt that, of the three, he would be the most prepared to handle all aspects of the job on the first day he’s in the position.

 

Lovullo has experience as a “second-in-command” bench coach at the big league level. Molitor was part of Tom Kelly’s bench staff for a time and was a hitting coach for the Mariners for one year. All of that experience is at least a decade old, however. He was on Gardenhire’s bench this past season. Mientkiewicz has not held a field manager/coach job above Class A.

 

From all accounts, Lovullo has a baseball mind and eye for detail that may not be quite on par with Molitor’s, but isn’t all that far behind it.

 

He not only is “open” to new ideas, he has a history of actively seeking them out.

 

Based strictly on a managerial/coaching résumé, there doesn’t appear to be much doubt that Lovullo is more qualified, right now, to be a big league manager.

 

But we all know this choice doesn’t just come down to that factor. We knew it when Terry Ryan told the media that he would be looking at both internal and external candidates, that what was important was finding the “right” person, but that, “ideally,” that choice would come from inside the organization. We’ve known it all along.

 

Here is what Lovullo does not have:

• Experience as a Major League manager
• Significant successful Major League playing experience (Lovullo was, in today’s parlance, a “replacement level player,” who saw big league time as a utility infielder in eight seasons, but played in over 100 games just once, putting up a .224 career batting average)
• Direct experience within the Twins organization

The first two points are really not factors at all. None of this group of finalists has big league manager experience and I think history has pretty much borne out that experience as a player in the majors is not predictive of success as a manager. He successfully climbed the ladder and reached “the Show.” That should be all the credibility he needs with a group of young players who have been doing the exact same thing.

 

But then there is the final bullet point.

 

And really, that’s what we knew it would come down to all along, isn’t it?

 

An objective look at the qualifications of these three guys (albeit an outsider’s look, given that we aren’t privy to information in background checks or reference checks, etc.) would seem to tell us Torey Lovullo is the most qualified of the group to manage in the Major Leagues.

 

But will Terry Ryan and the rest of the Twins leadership really be comfortable turning over the manager’s office to an outsider – someone whom they have absolutely zero experience dealing with outside of a job interview that reportedly went extremely well?

 

If Mientkiewicz doesn’t get the job, he’ll almost certainly remain in the organization, either back in Fort Myers or in Chattanooga, most likely.

 

But if Molitor doesn’t get the gig, there is probably some serious doubt as to whether he would remain in the Twins organization at all. Make no mistake, he has been a valuable resource in the roles he’s played with the Twins, whether as a roving minor league instructor or a coach with the Twins. Passing over him may cost the organization that resource altogether.

 

Given the competition he’s up against, I don’t see Mientkiewicz getting this job. I think it’s down to Molitor and Lovullo.

 

When it comes right down to making that decision, I don’t think Ryan and Jim Pohlad will give the position to even a highly qualified outsider. I think we’ll be seeing Paul Molitor named the manager within the next week or so.

 

If that’s the case, I’m fine with it. I like Molitor and I think he could be successful in the role, given the right coaching staff and resources (both in terms of players and technology) to compete.

 

Choosing Lovullo, on the other hand, would not only surprise me, but would give me a little extra optimism that things at One Twins Way are actually changing and while I already have considerable respect for Terry Ryan, making this sort of choice would significantly raise that level of respect.

 

It would be an uncharacteristic choice. It would be a bold choice.

 

It also, I am coming around to believing, would be the right choice.

 

This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com

 

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[dougkoebernick]

Great analysis - the only thing I would quibble with is this line when discussing Molitor:

 

"There’s media relations and public relations and front office communication and clubhouse relations… and… and…"

 

I think that a guy who has been interviewed probably 20,000 times (just one guy's guess) is probably going to be okay on the media and public relations areas - and he has also been involved in numerous clubhouses over the years and I can't ever think of someone who didn't show respect for what he had to offer.  

 

My vote is to go with Molitor and make Mientkiewicz part of the staff.

 

Thanks for the great article!

[diehardtwinsfan]

well written. Honestly, I'd be fine with any of those guys. Bit surprised that Gylnn has dropped out of contention.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Also, it was interesting that Jose Oquendo, Dave Martinez, and Wally Backman seemingly were not on the Twins' radar at all. There's no way to know if they were or were not contacted, but those three have been in lots of other team's managerial searches recently.

[Mike Sixel]

Martinez was my guy

[gunnarthor]

I'm fine with any of the three.  I hate the idea of disqualifying Molitor or Dougie Baseball just b/c they work for the Twins.  That's a stupid idea.  And Ryan had no problem picking Gardy despite being part of a coaching staff that had lost a lot prior to 2001. 

 

It is interesting that Lovullo has been a finalist for a lot of jobs but never hired. 

[tobi0040]

I agree with the analysis, my pick is Lovullo, Molitor, then Doug.  But I think Molitor gets the job

[Steven Buhr]

Martinez was my guy

I think a lot of us thought he would be a candidate. I don't think I recall his name being included as being interviewed for the other openings, either. Makes me wonder if there's some kind of scuttlebut about him getting the Rays manager job in the not-too-distant future or some other reason he's not even doing any interviewing. (Or maybe he is and I just have missed it.)

[Steven Buhr]

Great analysis - the only thing I would quibble with is this line when discussing Molitor:

 

"There’s media relations and public relations and front office communication and clubhouse relations… and… and…"

 

I think that a guy who has been interviewed probably 20,000 times (just one guy's guess) is probably going to be okay on the media and public relations areas - and he has also been involved in numerous clubhouses over the years and I can't ever think of someone who didn't show respect for what he had to offer.  

 

 

I think that's a fair point and as someone who has had the opportunity to interview Molitor, I can say he certainly is not ill-at-ease in that area. I do think there is something to be said for having experience managing before you manage a MLB team, even though I would not lose sleep over Molitor not having that experience, should Ryan decide he's the guy.

[brvama]

Regarding some of the people that were not considered may be the result of 2 things.  First, if a coach is under contract with another club, the Twins may not have gotten permission to contact them.  Maybe that team may have there own ideas - as SD Buhr suggests on Martinez.  

 

Second, other candidates were likely crossed off the list before they got to the interview because it was determined that they would not be a fit, either from the resume or knowledge of the person.  Example would be Ozzie Guillen.  This we do not, and likely never will, know.  

 

It would be good to get this over and to see the staff assembled.  It looks like it is very close.  I agree with tobi0040 as my choice.  Lovullo, Molitor, then Mientkiewicz.

[Kwak]

A problem with the "fire in the belly" personality is that said energy is a double-edged sword.  When things go well there is an exuberance--but when things "go South", things snowball into an avalache.  The baseball season is a marathon and a team (and its players) need an even-keel.  A grinding approach of 6 of 10, followed by 6 of 10 etc rather than the streaks that were common in the past. The Twins will soon become a team mostly populated with players with limited ML experience (if they aren't already that!) and a firm, steady hand is needed.    But one thing that must be dealt with quickly is the acceptance of losing.  These "swoons of August and September" must stop.   

[tobi0040]

A problem with the "fire in the belly" personality is that said energy is a double-edged sword.  When things go well there is an exuberance--but when things "go South", things snowball into an avalache.  The baseball season is a marathon and a team (and its players) need an even-keel.  A grinding approach of 6 of 10, followed by 6 of 10 etc rather than the streaks that were common in the past. The Twins will soon become a team mostly populated with players with limited ML experience (if they aren't already that!) and a firm, steady hand is needed.    But one thing that must be dealt with quickly is the acceptance of losing.  These "swoons of August and September" must stop.   

 

In addition, you can scream at a guy before his at bat....but when he is in the batters box I don't see how that is going to help him get a hit.  If a correlation exists between yelling at an ump and winning, we would have one of the better teams these last few years.

 

It seems to me that being more thoughtful about your lineup, defensive shifting, platooning, in game switches, etc. will help the team more than yelling at someone. 

Edited October 23, 2014 by tobi0040

[Steven Buhr]

We would be remiss not to point out that LaVelle E Neal is reporting that the Twins may not have really trimmed the list of candidates to 3 after all. I'll simply say that I wrote this article and its headline and posted it at Knuckleballsblog.com yesterday before that news.

 

http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/280134972.html

[tobi0040]

We would be remiss not to point out that LaVelle E Neal is reporting that the Twins may not have really trimmed the list of candidates to 3 after all. I'll simply say that I wrote this article and its headline and posted it at Knuckleballsblog.com yesterday before that news.

 

http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/280134972.html

 

Terry always leaves the door open....but I find it unlikely another serious candidate is added at this point.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Want a brilliant baseball mind? I doubt you could do better than Molitor.

What is the evidence of this, I wonder?  We all know he was a great player, and I guess he's expressed some interests in shifts, etc., but "brilliant baseball mind"?  (Not that "brilliant baseball mind" is necessarily a requirement for manager, but I think this may be a tad bit hyperbolic to apply to Molitor at this point, in this context, anyway.)

 

But if Molitor doesn’t get the gig, there is probably some serious doubt as to whether he would remain in the Twins organization at all. Make no mistake, he has been a valuable resource in the roles he’s played with the Twins, whether as a roving minor league instructor or a coach with the Twins. Passing over him may cost the organization that resource altogether.

Outside of Seattle 2004, has Molitor ever pursued, or been pursued for, a job in another organization? Not that it couldn't happen in the future, but he just hasn't appeared terribly ambitious (or sought after) in that regard.

 

Otherwise, great analysis, very thorough, thanks!

Edited October 23, 2014 by spycake

[Steven Buhr]

What is the evidence of this, I wonder?  We all know he was a great player, and I guess he's expressed some interests in shifts, etc., but "brilliant baseball mind"?  (Not that "brilliant baseball mind" is necessarily a requirement for manager, but I think this may be a tad bit hyperbolic to apply to Molitor at this point, in this context, anyway.)

 

Outside of Seattle 2004, has Molitor ever pursued, or been pursued for, a job in another organization? Not that it couldn't happen in the future, but he just hasn't appeared terribly ambitious (or sought after) in that regard.

 

Otherwise, great analysis, very thorough, thanks!

I think there is a lot of doubt about Molitor's ambition, to the point where some have questioned just whether he wants this manager job very bad. I said there's some "serious doubt" as to whether he'd stay in the organization, but I'm not as quick to totally rule it out as some are (at least for this year). It's not like there are other manager vacancies he can go apply for if he doesn't get the Twins job. I could see him taking another position in the organization for at least a year if he simply wants to stay involved with baseball. I suspect he does. I have doubts that he would accept a coaching role or minor league manager role that would require he spend 6-7 months away from his family if he doesn't get the Twins manager job, however. 

 

As for his "brilliance," I'll just say that you don't have to look far to find comments about his "high baseball IQ," as Terry Ryan has stated. Trevor Plouffe also called Molitor, "one of the most knowledgeable baseball men I've ever met." I've talked to minor leaguers who spoke really highly of him, as well. Personally, I was as impressed with his baseball knowledge when I had opportunities to talk to him during a week he spent in CR in 2013 as anyone I've talked baseball with. Maybe "brilliant baseball mind" was hyperbole on my part, but I'll own that. When it comes to baseball, I think he's a really smart guy.

Edited October 23, 2014 by Steven BUHR

[tobi0040]

I think there is a lot of doubt about Molitor's ambition, to the point where some have questioned just whether he wants this manager job very bad. I said there's some "serious doubt" as to whether he'd stay in the organization, but I'm not as quick to totally rule it out as some are (at least for this year). It's not like there are other manager vacancies he can go apply for if he doesn't get the Twins job. I could see him taking another position in the organization for at least a year if he simply wants to stay involved with baseball. I suspect he does. I have doubts that he would accept a coaching role or minor league manager role that would require he spend 6-7 months away from his family if he doesn't get the Twins manager job, however. 

 

As for his "brilliance," I'll just say that you don't have to look far to find comments about his "high baseball IQ," as Terry Ryan has stated. Trevor Plouffe also called Molitor, "one of the most knowledgeable baseball men I've ever met." I've talked to minor leaguers who spoke really highly of him, as well. Personally, I was as impressed with his baseball knowledge when I had opportunities to talk to him during a week he spent in CR in 2013 as anyone I've talked baseball with. Maybe "brilliant baseball mind" was hyperbole on my part, but I'll own that. When it comes to baseball, I think he's a really smart guy.

 

I think the numbers he put up as a player without being as physically gifted as other HOF types (think Ricky Henderson)....shows me he has a good mind. Played basically every position other than catcher and stole over 500 bases without burning speed. 

[davidc3915]

I've had the same feeling all along.  I felt the job was Molitor's to lose.  I've read that Gene Glynn may not return to Rochester, so does Dougie move all the way up to AAA?  Or will we see a chain of promotions that lead him to AA ball?

[JB_Iowa]

I've had the same feeling all along.  I felt the job was Molitor's to lose.  I've read that Gene Glynn may not return to Rochester, so does Dougie move all the way up to AAA?  Or will we see a chain of promotions that lead him to AA ball?

 

I'm confused on the Glynn thing since the Twins AAA team is now in Tenn.  What does "may not return to Rochester" mean?  (This isn't facetious because I've read similar comments from sportswriters.  

I'm just confused.)

[nicksaviking]

If Molitor's 3rd interview is being described as "OK." He's out of the running.  They would have offered him the position if they'd heard what they wanted to. 

 

I know some would argue the team is doing it's due diligence.   I could also see the arguement that they are just once again too indecisive.  There is a history of the later option with this club. 

 

It's starting to feel like Ryan really wants an internal candidate to work, but Lovullo or someone Ryan wasn't expecting is clearly the more impressive candidate.

[nicksaviking]

I'm confused on the Glynn thing since the Twins AAA team is now in Tenn.  What does "may not return to Rochester" mean?  (This isn't facetious because I've read similar comments from sportswriters.  

I'm just confused.)

 

It's the AA team that moved to Tennessee I believe.  I'm guessing the idea is that Glynn will be on the Twins coaching staff.  Of course this implication, along with the fact that Ryan said he believes the Twins need a Hispanic presence in the dugout (yet don't seem overly interested in a Hispanic manager) may mean that Ryan, not the new manager, will be putting together his staff.

[JB_Iowa]

It's the AA team that moved to Tennessee I believe.  I'm guessing the idea is that Glynn will be on the Twins coaching staff.  Of course this implication, along with the fact that Ryan said he believes the Twins need a Hispanic presence in the dugout (yet don't seem overly interested in a Hispanic manager) may mean that Ryan, not the new manager, will be putting together his staff.

Well duh.... of course its the Rock Cats who moved,  Breaking my arm also broke my brain.

[Steven Buhr]

Well duh.... of course its the Rock Cats who moved,  Breaking my arm also broke my brain.

I believe that, under the TD concussion protocol, we aren't allowed to post anything for 1 week whenever we break our brains.

[Kwak]

If Molitor's 3rd interview is being described as "OK." He's out of the running.  They would have offered him the position if they'd heard what they wanted to. 

 

I know some would argue the team is doing it's due diligence.   I could also see the arguement that they are just once again too indecisive.  There is a history of the later option with this club. 

 

It's starting to feel like Ryan really wants an internal candidate to work, but Lovullo or someone Ryan wasn't expecting is clearly the more impressive candidate.

My take:  Ryan wants to "modify" Molitor's opinions--and hasn't heard the right words.  As far as "wanting 'it' bad enough", that could include "how to do 'it'."  Perhaps Molitor will bend only so far?

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

It's hard to be patient about this, I feel like the week following the end of the World Series will be when the Twins announce the new Manager. They will want potential free agents (as well as their own players) to know who is going to be in the dugout.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think the numbers he put up as a player without being as physically gifted as other HOF types (think Ricky Henderson)....shows me he has a good mind.

Molitor was the 3rd overall draft pick in 1977.  He may not have been Rickey Henderson in terms of physical gifts, but who is?  He was plenty gifted.

[tobi0040]

Molitor was the 3rd overall draft pick in 1977.  He may not have been Rickey Henderson in terms of physical gifts, but who is?  He was plenty gifted.

 

Do you not believe his smarts played a role in his career?   He was 30th or so all time in steals but I am guessing he was nowhere near the 30th fastest guy.  Slugged .500 a few seasons.  He does not look like a guy to me that is going to put up those numbers.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Do you not believe his smarts played a role in his career?   He was 30th or so all time in steals but I am guessing he was nowhere near the 30th fastest guy.  Slugged .500 a few seasons.  He does not look like a guy to me that is going to put up those numbers.

He was probably a smart player too, but it's not liked he was Jamey Carroll or Nick Punto and simply willed himself to be better.  He was considered one of the top amateur players in the country by age 20.

 

I liked his game, I will say that much.  Good SB% and SO/BB rates.  But I liked George Brett's game too (more career BB than SO!), and Ryne Sandberg (unheralded 20th round pick, with power, speed, and defense), and they don't look as smart now as when they were players.

[Steven Buhr]

He was probably a smart player too, but it's not liked he was Jamey Carroll or Nick Punto and simply willed himself to be better.  He was considered one of the top amateur players in the country by age 20.

 

I liked his game, I will say that much.  Good SB% and SO/BB rates.  But I liked George Brett's game too (more career BB than SO!), and Ryne Sandberg (unheralded 20th round pick, with power, speed, and defense), and they don't look as smart now as when they were players.

You originally asked for "evidence" of his baseball smarts. I'm honestly not sure what kind of evidence you need. As I indicated, there is ample "testimony" out there and if you've read/heard any of Gardenhire's comments about Molitor today, those would be added to said testimony.

 

But, to my knowledge, there's no baseball IQ test to provide objective evidence of a person's baseball knowledge. You either take the word of people who have worked with that person or you don't. You could say winning World Series as a manager might be evidence, but, let's be honest, good teams with dumb management have won WS rings.

[Otto von Ballpark]

You originally asked for "evidence" of his baseball smarts. I'm honestly not sure what kind of evidence you need. As I indicated, there is ample "testimony" out there and if you've read/heard any of Gardenhire's comments about Molitor today, those would be added to said testimony.

 

But, to my knowledge, there's no baseball IQ test to provide objective evidence of a person's baseball knowledge. You either take the word of people who have worked with that person or you don't. You could say winning World Series as a manager might be evidence, but, let's be honest, good teams with dumb management have won WS rings.

I understand.  I guess I would take any Twins comments about Molitor with a big grain of salt -- they are his current (and one of his only post-playing) employer, and currently interviewing him for a promotion.

 

You're right, "brilliant baseball mind" is certainly not a requirement for the job, but I would hesitate to throw that around for anybody who is fairly novice in the coaching/management ranks.