Article: Let's Just Roll With What We Have

[Otto von Ballpark]

Like it or not, barring injury I think you can conclude Gibson and Nolasco will both be in the rotation next year.  One is 26 and coming off a much improved sophomore season and the other is owed big money the next 3 years.  Both of them were hampered by bad defense and showed better than their ERA+ can show.

 

But it won't be Gibson or Nolasco losing a rotation spot to a new free agent.  It will be Meyer and May.  If I thought for a second that Nolasco actually had to win a job in spring training I'd be on board, but no one really thinks that.  There was no reason May or Meyer couldn't have competed for a rotation spot out of spring training last year, but they were never given a chance because of all the "depth" this team thought it had at the position.

Perhaps I wasn't clear -- I have no illusions or desire that Gibson and Nolasco be denied 2015 rotation spots, and one or both may even succeed.  But at this point, neither is the kind of pitcher you want to give a spot without a backup plan.  Same for Milone, same for the prospects... basically every SP the Twins have except Hughes.  If we could add another starter like Hughes near the top of the depth chart, and push out the Pelfreys and Darnells at the bottom (or at least relegate them to other roles), I can't see that as anything but a positive for the Twins, in 2015 and beyond.  That doesn't mean it's a burning priority, that we have to dramatically overpay or sell the farm for, but if it could be done, it would be a great move forward from 2012-2014.

 

Same for the outfield -- right now, Arcia is really the only internal option we can trust out there without a safety net (although even he might benefit from using an actual net in the outfield ).  An outfield addition that pushes Parmelee or Schafer off the depth chart (or at least firmly into non-starting roles) and prevents us from rushing Rosario, Ortiz, and Hicks (again) should be welcomed.

 

Now, if you don't trust management to add another veteran starter and still leave a spot to be shared by Meyer/May (i.e. pegging Pelfrey and Milone a lot higher on the depth chart than most outside observers)... well, that's a lot deeper issue.  (The outfield isn't so bad in this regard; as I've stated, there are no promising outfielders knocking on the door of MLB like May and Meyer are.)

[h2oface]

Yikes.  Buxton is 2 for his last 22 and hitting a Hicksesque .209 now in the AFL.  It may be longer than hoped for a centerfielder to appear from the farm.

[bird]

I do let myself get mesmerized by them though.  Elite strikeout numbers at the minor league level seem to be the biggest indicator that a guy will be able to hold up at the front of the rotation at the MLB level.  The odds still might not be in their favor, but it's exponetially more likely than the kind of pitchers we've been used to seeing around here most of the last decade.  You almost always know exactly what you're getting with the low BB soft tossers, that is, stop gap AAAA pitchers, most of whom will flame out within a season or two. 

 

It's nice to reward Pino, Darnell, Walters, DeVries, Diamond, blah, blah, blah for their AAA accomplishments, but it comes with a price.  These guys should not be getting promoted over guys with promise like Meyer or May when we already know how their story will end.

We all love the K's. But let's not rely on this one example, Meyer, to perpetuate the "preference for soft-tossing pitchers" thing and to dredge up known history, which is that we've lacked pitching talent in the upper minors. You and I were not privy to the discussions, let alone the circumstances involved in the decision(s) to keep Meyer at AAA. There were very competent coaches and trainers watching every pitch Meyer threw. What makes you think they made the wrong call?

 

But it most certainly wasn't because they have this irrational jones for soft-tossing AAAA starters. Talent has been slowly bubbling up through the minors. It hadn't reached AAA yet in 2015, and therefore we saw the likes of Pino and Johnson. Exactly what should we have done to avoid using those AAAA guys in 2013 and 2014, aside from making our own declaration that Meyer was ready to go? Next year will be the FIRST year where we will have young "bona fide" prospects to choose from, guys like Meyer, May, Berrios, Duffey, Gilmartin, Darnell, Wheeler, Rogers, etc.

 

You might be right that not calling Meyer up was a mistake on the part of the development staff, but if it wasn't, then the right guys got called up to make the necessary starts.

[bird]

I'm with the let's just roll plan.   Let's find out what we have and leave room for Meyer, Sano, Buxton, Rosario, maybe Berrios or Polanco to play this year.  While I agree that getting one of the prized pitchers would be an awesome surprise I don't see the Twins doing it.  A reclamation project is just as likely to produce Nolasco as much as Hughes and we still have Pelfrey.

 

 Why not find out what you have in Meyer, Tonkin, Berrios, Pryor, Pressly, Oliveros, Rosario, Sano. etc. everyone was going crazy about that earlier this year.  Are we going to stick with aging vets or find out who has the talent to make it and who doesn't?  There is a ton of talent in the pipeline and lots of 40 man decisions to be made.  Let's find out what we have so we don't lose the wrong players from the 40 man.  Let's go young and keep the young talent moving forward.  Not everyone is gonna make it but throw enough talented bodies out there and a core will stick.  Or keep them in AAA and block everything up.  the talent is in the pipeline lets see what we have.

Dman, they can find out what they have and leave room for every single one of the prospects you just named and STILL attempt to pull off another Hughes-type move and sign a 2-way corner OF for 2015.

If things get crowded in 2016, great, trade from surplus.

[bird]

That team went 12-11 in April.

 

That team without them went 11-15 in September.

I wouldn't imagine you're suggesting that the April team with the winning record, the team with Colabello, Bartlett, Kubel, Correia, Willingham, Florimon, and Deduno was better in any other way besides its SSS record and it's "experience". SwainZag's point, I think, is well-made, in saying a 40% roster turnover from the beginning of the season represents improvement, and I like the fact that she's still lobbying for a couple of key moves by Ryan this off-season.

Edited October 23, 2014 by bird

[bird]

My post wasn't advocating for Shields or making any sort of value claims about him -- I was just responding to a specific claim that Hughes is "more of an ace right now (and likely to be next year) than Shields."  It took what is (thus far) a career year with a fluky historic low walk rate from Hughes just to match Shields' career run prevention mark (and still fell short of Shields' 2013-2014 run prevention marks).

I'm "guilty" for having labelled Hughes a #2-3 versus a #1-2. But it was within the context of assessing what we have for a rotation right now leading into 2015.

 

We've had a few too many instances lately where perhaps our boys have overestimated what they had. I'm hoping Ryan is taking stock of this. Hughes may turn into a consistent #1-2 guy. I hope so, because it will be so much fun reading the comments, one right after another, effusive in praise for that brilliant FA acquisition by Ryan.

[bird]

No but there would have been plenty to predict they would have outperformed opening day starters Correia, Pelfrey and perhaps even Gibson.  Even if they would not have outperformed them, there really should have been next to no concern about Pelfrey and Correia losing out in what was clearly destined to be another losing season. 

 

Winning doens't happen until the young guys get their feet wet. 

None of those making a prediction that May or Meyer would outperform any one of these three out of the blocks in 2014 would have been employed by the Twins. 

Edited October 23, 2014 by bird

[SwainZag]

I wouldn't imagine you're suggesting that the April team with the winning record, the team with Colabello, Bartlett, Kubel, Correia, Willingham, Florimon, and Deduno was better in any other way besides its SSS record and it's "experience". SwainZag's point, I think, is well-made, in saying a 40% roster turnover from the beginning of the season represents improvement, and I like the fact that she's still lobbying for a couple of key moves by Ryan this off-season.

 

That was exactly my point, especially on the premise that 9/10 of those possible opening day differences are players that are over the age of 30.  Out with the old and in with the new!   WIth many of those roster spots already turned over to younger players: Santana, Vargas, Nunez, etc.

[Dman]

Dman, they can find out what they have and leave room for every single one of the prospects you just named and STILL attempt to pull off another Hughes-type move and sign a 2-way corner OF for 2015.

If things get crowded in 2016, great, trade from surplus.

 

I don't think that getting A LF and hughes type pitcher is a horrible thing by any means but I have to disagree with you that they wouldn't block anybody for this year.

 

If they get a good LFer then they are basically saying we won't see Rosario or Sano this year until maybe September.  It also means we likely won't see much of Hicks as Santana appears entrenched in center unless Esco gets hurt.  So if Sano and Rosario are knocking the ball around in double and triple A they won't get called up to replace veteran players who are getting paid a lot of money to play.

 

Does it matter that they get blocked this year? probably not,  it just delays their MLB development and then we do this whole dance again next year.

 

I would like them to leave left alone and start Hicks or Schafer in left.  If Rosario or Sano hit well in AA then they can play in Left and we can see how well they do.  Whoever is ready early though could come up and likely play Left or move someone else to left.  Use it to figure out who belongs and who doesn't or at least to give valuable at bats to younger guys.

 

Pitching I would love the Twins to add an Ace anything less and I would prefer to find out more about Meyer, Berrios, Darnell, Gilmartin, Duffy, Wheeler, Rogers etc.  I think one or two of those guys can be as good as Nolasco, Correia or Pelfrey.  If I thought the Twins could find another Hughes I'd be all for it but it is a 50\50 shot and I would rather find out what we have on the farm this year.

 

Prospects are going to keep bubbling up at higher rates and we won't be able to protect them all on the 40 man. I really think it makes sense to figure out who can play MLB as soon as possible now more than ever before for the Twins.  We can buy guys to fill holes but to say they won't block or clog things seems unrealistic IMO.

[James Richter]

Everything Hughes did well this year is the sort of thing pitchers can control, and at his age and with low career mileage on his arm, he should be able to provide a similar performance next year. Maybe not record-setting, but with normal BABIP he could double his walk rate and still come out even. But I understand the skepticism - the first time Cliff Lee got his BB/9 under 2.0 I said, "Yeah, right, do it again." Needless to say...

 

It perplexes me that so many in this community will see something unexpectedly good happen (Hughes' 2014) and say, "No, that was fluky, look at his track record, he's really a #2-#3," but when something unexpectedly bad happens (Nolasco's 1st half), they'll say, "That guy sucks, his contract is a disaster, lets dump him as fast as we can." Nolasco had a 6-season track record of being a mid-rotation starter before he signed here, and his post-DL performance was consistent with that track record. I wish more folks would be as willing to dismiss the fluky bad stuff as the good stuff.

[Otto von Ballpark]

It perplexes me that so many in this community will see something unexpectedly good happen (Hughes' 2014) and say, "No, that was fluky, look at his track record, he's really a #2-#3,"

Hughes' track record prior to 2014 doesn't even suggest #2-#3.  He was a career ~91 ERA+ starter who didn't appear particularly durable.  That track record PLUS fully considering his 2014 pegs him as a #2-#3 starter in my book for now.

 

Not sure how we got on this tangent, frankly.  I love what Hughes has done, but I guess I think there is still "room" at the top of the Twins rotation even with Hughes.  And I agree that it's too early to give up on Nolasco.

[TheLeviathan]

Getting a good LF should have absolutely zero impact on Sano.  Zero.

[nicksaviking]

None of those making a prediction that May or Meyer would outperform any one of these three out of the blocks in 2014 would have been employed by the Twins. 

 

And the fact that this was not a consideration by anyone in the organization probably should indicate that there needs to be wholesale changes.

 

I'm not sure why we need to give this organization continued benefit of the doubt when they continue to fail.

Edited October 24, 2014 by nicksaviking