Article: Left Field In Need Of Upgrade

[Otto von Ballpark]

If Rasmus wants that Granderson money, I think he'd need to sign a 1-year deal somewhere and have a really good season. Then he'd still only be 29 and a good season could make someone overpay for his services. 

I thought the same about Hughes last offseason, but he took a 3 year deal (admittedly less AAV than $12 mil).  Hughes had very similar career earnings at that point as Rasmus too.

 

Maybe that's the balance between getting some decent money/security now, and still being able to hit the market again before age 31.

 

Although according to B-Ref, Hughes was at best a 2 WAR starter with NYY, while Rasmus has been basically a minimum ~2 WAR starter his whole career outside of a disastrous debut with Toronto in 2011.

[Linus]

LF Options internally for next season:

 

Schaefer

Nunez

Parmelee

Sano

Rosario

Hicks

 

Can the Twins find a manager that can optimally platoon the best 2 here unless Sano takes over at the allstar break.  Still not great but not horrible if done right.

Here's the problem.  With a 13 man pitching staff, you have three guys on the bench, one of which is the back up catcher, plus a utility infielder and one back up outfielder.  Not much to platoon with.....

[Mike Sixel]

I think we see less 13 man pitching staffs with a new manager......

 

I don't have a good answer for LF.

 

If they went truly young, I'd probably put Rosario out there. Or Santana. Santana will not be the CF in 2016 and beyond.....either put him in LF or SS, imo.

 

If they don't utterly embrace the youth movement out of camp, I'd prefer an outside FA of some kind, with Hicks in AAA. If Hicks is the starter, I hope they are ready to replace him if he fails again.

[SwainZag]

Here's the problem.  With a 13 man pitching staff, you have three guys on the bench, one of which is the back up catcher, plus a utility infielder and one back up outfielder.  Not much to platoon with.....

 

Ugh 13 man staff should happen in emergency situations only.  There is no reason to only have 3 bench options during a game.

[mbents]

I'd like to see the Twins go after someone like Alejandro De Aza. He isn't a free agent after the season but the Orioles might non-tender him, or at the very least he'd probably be available for cheap. Average hitter but played above average defense in LF this year. Also has the ability to play CF if needed.

[James Richter]

In a completely unscientific survey of the Twins' September games, I found that they allowed a little under 4 R/G with at least 2 of Hicks/Santana/Schafer in the OF, and a little over 6 R/G with only one of them out there. The samples in each case are only a dozen-ish games, hardly definitive, but perhaps suggestive that simply making sure there are 2 athletic, trained OFs in the lineup each day can be a boon to the pitchers.

 

The starters in the 2nd half combined for an xFIP of 3.89, which was within a tenth of a run of the AL average (3.82). That's even with 4 lousy starts each from Correia and Swarzak, a nightmarish debut month from May, and an unprecedentedly terrible month from Milone. I don't think it's a stretch to project a similar xFIP figure in 2015, particularly with the May we saw in September taking all of Correia's starts and Milone reverting to his career average. Normal results on balls in play can turn what appears to be a bad rotation into a decent one overnight. Putting an average or better defender in LF - which shouldn't be an expensive proposition - may be the key to breaking this streak of losing seasons.

[nicksaviking]

Here's the problem.  With a 13 man pitching staff, you have three guys on the bench, one of which is the back up catcher, plus a utility infielder and one back up outfielder.  Not much to platoon with.....

Not sure if you heard, but Gardy was fired.  We may see a more modern baseball roster.

[TNTwinsFan]

Rasmus...do it! Overpay if you need to. And Shields. Overpay there too.

[tobi0040]

 but perhaps suggestive that simply making sure there are 2 athletic, trained OFs in the lineup each day can be a boon to the pitchers.

 

 

I had to chuckle that you had to specifically call out "trained OF".  God bless Ron Gardenhire.

[TNTwinsFan]

This may be the wrong thread....I juat cant help to think though that it is really time to stop messing around with marginal ball players at the MLB level. Cut the cord with some of these marginal pitchers in the bull pen too. The Twins have about 5-7 guys that would seem to have a significant impact next year stashed in the minors. Guys like Burdi, Z. Jones, Reed, Melotakis, etc. They've been lights out. Give these kids a shot and see what happens.

[SwainZag]

Rasmus...do it! Overpay if you need to. And Shields. Overpay there too.

 

Before they are just overpaying for Rasmus, which one are we going to be getting?  The one who hit around .225 with an OBP under .300 in 2011, 2012 and 2014 or the outlier in 2013 of .276/.328/.501? While he does have good pop, outside of 2012, 3 of his last 4 offensive years have been pretty meh.  He did only play CF last season, but he was pretty terrible at that as well having a negative value.

 

For a team on a limited spending budget, if overpaying for him is say....8-10-12M a year, isn't there better way they could spend the money?  My 2 cents on Mr. Rasmus.

[DocBauer]

Didn't Gordon play 3rd base when he first came up?

 

Yes he was an All American 3B for the Huskers. If memory serves, I believe he also won the collegiate Gold Glove at the position.

 

He's turned in to a marvelous player in LF, but after watching him play 3B for years in college at a high level, and seeing how hard it is to find a 3B who can be quality in both phases of the game, I was really surprised they Royals moved him to left so quickly.

[tobi0040]

Before they are just overpaying for Rasmus, which one are we going to be getting?  The one who hit around .225 with an OBP under .300 in 2011, 2012 and 2014 or the outlier in 2013 of .276/.328/.501? While he does have good pop, outside of 2012, 3 of his last 4 offensive years have been pretty meh.  He did only play CF last season, but he was pretty terrible at that as well having a negative value.

 

For a team on a limited spending budget, if overpaying for him is say....8-10-12M a year, isn't there better way they could spend the money?  My 2 cents on Mr. Rasmus.

 

His numbers the last three years:

 

2012 - .689 OPS  23, HR, 21 2B

2013 - .840 OPS  22 HR, 26 2B in 118 games

2014 - .735 OPS 18 HR and 23 2B in 104 games

 

The fact that he can play an almost even CF tells me he is probably an above average defensive LF.

 

I would go 3-24 max, be great if we had an option or two on top of it.

[stringer bell]

LF Options internally for next season:

 

Schaefer

Nunez

Parmelee

Sano

Rosario

Hicks

 

Can the Twins find a manager that can optimally platoon the best 2 here unless Sano takes over at the allstar break.  Still not great but not horrible if done right.

OK, you have Schafer, Parm and Rosario who all hit LH. Schafer and probably Rosario would be considered pretty good defenders. Hicks is a prospect who has always hit better RH. If he were strictly platooned, he will have reached his floor and ceiling at the same time and he would start between 40 and 50 games. Nuñez would be a fast infielder playing outfield. In his 16 games out there he made some really nice plays and looked totally lost a couple of other times. Add to this soup the fact that Parmelee and Nuñez both had reverse platoon splits last year. Finally, how many guys can the team carry to man left field? I think two is really the max and one of them has to be a backup center fielder.

[DocBauer]

Left is definitely in need of a big upgrade. And as I've stated before, it's actually the easiest position to offer sudden and significant improvement to the team. Someone who can actually hit some, be productive, and play solid defense would be a VAST upgrade to what was trolled out to LF in 2014.

 

Other than a couple good weeks here and there, the likes of Willingham, Kubel and others provided mediocre to downright bad defense with only a smattering of offense. Really, other than Schaffer the last 30 days, there was zero stability at the position all year.

 

But LF also offers itself as a conundrum. I've been pushing hard to bring someone in, with the options being a 3 year-ish deal for good money to one of a handful of OF candidates that could deserve it, OR, a stopgap 1 year player that still provides upgrade and possibly even a good season.

 

But there are intriguing question marks of possibilities as well. We saw a little something in former top prospect Schafer that would seem to indicate brining him back as a CF/LF/4th OF option. Hicks is a huge question mark, but could he at least start to figure it out in '15? What if he could be part of an at least OK platoon? How long for Buxton to develop? The whole season, or is he up by July? The same could be said for Rosario. And what if, for whatever reason, Santana doesn't play or stick at SS, does he play LF? CF for part of all or one more season?

 

I'm not saying not to make the move and improve the team. I'm just stating the OF complexion could be very different by mid season next year.

[SwainZag]

His numbers the last three years:

 

2012 - .689 OPS  23, HR, 21 2B

2013 - .840 OPS  22 HR, 26 2B in 118 games

2014 - .735 OPS 18 HR and 23 2B in 104 games

 

The fact that he can play an almost even CF tells me he is probably an above average defensive LF.

 

I would go 3-24 max, be great if we had an option or two on top of it.

 

Yes, his power/slugging is obviously the strong part of this game.  He also struck out 23% of the time in 2012, 32% of the time in 2013 and 35.8% last year.  He also hasn't played a single inning in a corner OF spot since 2009.  I am just not sold on the guy being a 8M a year player.  Even with his .735 OPS last year be was a 0.9 WAR player.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

To me, the ideal configuration looks like this:

 

LF: FA/trade acquisition

CF: FA/trade acquisition

4th and 5th Outfielder: Schafer and Hicks

 

SS: Danny Santana

UTIL: Eduardo Escobar

 

DFA'd, traded, released: Nuñez and Parmelee.

 

I think Parmelee is fine, but the Twins can find someone else to surpass his production and be the starter ahead of Hicks and Schafer.

[tobi0040]

Yes, his power/slugging is obviously the strong part of this game.  He also struck out 23% of the time in 2012, 32% of the time in 2013 and 35.8% last year.  He also hasn't played a single inning in a corner OF spot since 2009.  I am just not sold on the guy being a 8M a year player.  Even with his .735 OPS last year be was a 0.9 WAR player.

 

His OWAR was 1.5 and DWAR was -.5. I generally subscribe to the theory that if a guy can hack it in CF he can hack it in a corner.  I also believe that a -.5 in CF would translate to about even in LF.

 

 

He also only played in 104 games last year.  So if you increase his 1.5 oWAR 60% (2.4) and give him a dWAR of 0, you have a nice 2.4 WAR player.

 

The fact that he can play in CF is another fit for this team.

Edited October 15, 2014 by tobi0040

[h2oface]

How does one get to see that 3 minute Alex Gordon video?

[Zachary]

Does that mea if Hicks takes every BP swing like it was bottom 9 game 7 bases loaded 2 outs then before long he'll be an above average hitter?? That would solve our problems. I would be much more concerned about his hitting if he starts day 1 in LF. Although the work ethic in general would be a valuable lesson to learn.

[gil4]

INTANGIBLES  MATTER  PEOPLE 

 

I am of the opinion that tangibles matter more.  Being on great A-ball teams doesn't change the fact that it's tough to overcome a 25% K rate.  RBI totals are greatly influenced by opportunity.  ABW is an interesting prospect, but he has some serious flaws in his game that could very well overshadow his strengths as he moves up.

[bird]

This may be the wrong thread....I juat cant help to think though that it is really time to stop messing around with marginal ball players at the MLB level. Cut the cord with some of these marginal pitchers in the bull pen too. The Twins have about 5-7 guys that would seem to have a significant impact next year stashed in the minors. Guys like Burdi, Z. Jones, Reed, Melotakis, etc. They've been lights out. Give these kids a shot and see what happens.

You could be about a half-year early with some of these guys, but yeah, let's deal a couple of the old group at the trade deadline if these guys are ready, even if the Fiens and Thielbars are doing well. Sell from surplus.

[bird]

To me, the ideal configuration looks like this:

 

LF: FA/trade acquisition

CF: FA/trade acquisition

4th and 5th Outfielder: Schafer and Hicks

 

SS: Danny Santana

UTIL: Eduardo Escobar

 

DFA'd, traded, released: Nuñez and Parmelee.

 

I think Parmelee is fine, but the Twins can find someone else to surpass his production and be the starter ahead of Hicks and Schafer.

I'd go with this except keep Santana in CF and Escobar at SS until Buxton is ready. No need to use trade chips or cash for a short-term fix in CF when Santana can be adequate.

[jharaldson]

When I look at the chart Parker provided I noticed the Royals made 435 outs in LF and the Twins made 416 outs for a difference of 19 outs over the year.  How is 1 additional out every 8.5 games that big of a deal?  

 

I also noted that the Twins and Royals were roughly equal on Flyballs but the Twins had 20 more line drives hit to the outfield which are harder to field.  

[USAFChief]

Not sure if you heard, but Gardy was fired.  We may see a more modern baseball roster.

Even if the pitching staff stays at 12 all season, it's still very difficult to devote two players to one position.

 

Strict platoons are rare these days, and getting rarer.

[freshinthehouse]

I am not ready to assume that Arcia can't improve as a fielder.  Dude as a more than capable arm and he it's not like he's a 40 year old Frank Thomas speed-wise. I hate to be the typical Twins fan that harkens back to the days of Tom Kelly, but if this kid was with the Twins in Kelly's day I have no doubt that they'd work with him until he became a passable defender. 

 

Also, once Buxton comes in and we have a plus center fielder, I have no qualms with having mashers at the corner O spots.  Plenty of teams have won with this setup, and player like Schafer was born o be a pinch runner/OF replacement type.  If Arcia (or whoever mans the other corner OF spot) get on base in the seventh inning or later, sub in Schafer, let him wreak havoc on the basepaths, and provide plus defense at one of corner OF spots for the rest of the game.

[old nurse]

Here's the problem.  With a 13 man pitching staff, you have three guys on the bench, one of which is the back up catcher, plus a utility infielder and one back up outfielder.  Not much to platoon with.....

Here then is another problem. The Twins bullpen pitched almost 500 innings last year. That really wasn't good on a 8 man staff.

[TheDean]

When I look at the chart Parker provided I noticed the Royals made 435 outs in LF and the Twins made 416 outs for a difference of 19 outs over the year.  How is 1 additional out every 8.5 games that big of a deal?  

 

I also noted that the Twins and Royals were roughly equal on Flyballs but the Twins had 20 more line drives hit to the outfield which are harder to field.  

 

Haven't checked the stats, going off a bit of a gut feeling, but seeing as how the Royals pitching staff won them a game or two and has them poised to sweep every postseason game up till the WS, they might allow fewer balls to the OF.  The fact that the Twins recorded fewer outs in LF than the Royals is simply remarkable to me.  My guess is that Twins LFers had dozens more balls hit at them, but fewer recorded outs.  Again, just a guess that maybe more is going on here than simply Royals outs>Twins outs.

[DocBauer]

Orioles declined to pick up the option on Markakis. Not a surprise since it was over $17M and all but a handful of players deserve that kind of salary.

 

He's more star, but is a solid hitter with some decent peripherals in his career. I like Rasmus' mix of speed and power and ability to play CF even though I'd rather move him to LF on a daily basis.

 

But Markakis could be a really nice option. There is a $2M buyout if the Orioles can't come to terms with him, so I would expect a pretty big early push on their part. Sounds like the Twins would have to make an early decision and push if interested.

[Thrylos]

ABW or Arcia will be your Left Fielder of the Future with Buxton in Center.   Buxton will make whoever is around him that much better in the outfield.  It might even be Kepler as one of the 3 or 4th OFer.  All great centerfielders make the guys around them better.   If the minor leagues are our future then it might not be as bad as we all think.  Cedar Rapids (2013) and Fort Meyers (2014) had amongst the best records in all of minor league baseball (with 2013 being the best).   All of them run fairly well, even for big guys.

 

Hate to say this, but other than the 2 who are playing in the AFL right now (Buxton & Rosario,) the other high ranked Twins OF prospects (Harrison, Kepler, Walker) run about as well as Delmon Young.