Article: Left Field In Need Of Upgrade

[Parker Hageman]

If there is one position that will be different for the Minnesota Twins in 2015, it appears that it will be left field. And if the team wants to reward it’s pitching staff, it should be a defensive-minded individual.In 2014, the position originally was intended for the incumbent Josh Willingham but on April 7th he was sidelined with a fractured wrist from a Justin Masterson’s pitch. That forced Jason Kubel into duty. But before long the position turned over again when Kubel was DFA’d and Willingham was traded to the Royals at the non-waiver deadline. The Twins used a mixture of Chris Parmelee, Eduardo Nunez and Jordan Schafer to conclude the year.

 

With the exception of Schafer, and a handful of games from Sam Fuld, this unit was not particularly good. In fact, you might say it was the worst in baseball, at least by advanced fielding metrics standards. According to Ultimate Zone Rating found at Fangraphs.com, the left field position held a -19.3 UZR, the worst in baseball. Over at BillJamesOnline.net, their Plus/Minus rating provided by BIS said the Twins left field was at -25.

 

If you look toward Inside Edge’s scouted data -- how many balls which were hit to left field were converted into outs -- well, it gets just slightly better. Inside Edge assigns a catchability value to each play that is then loaded into their overall database. These are broken down into categories like 90%-to-100% catchable, 60%-to-90%, 40%-to-60% and so on. For the Twins, they managed to catch 98.7% (27 of 30) of all balls that fell within the 90%-to-100% range. In the 60%-to-90% range, they tracked down an MLB-worst 56% of those plays.

 

Of course, advanced fielding metrics have flaws. Scouts have biases. In terms of just the raw counts, the Twins fared OK. A generous OK.

 

According to ESPN/TruMedia’s data, the Twins left fielders faced 769 fly balls or line drives that traveled over 200 feet in the air and stayed in the ballpark. Of those, they managed to convert 59.9% into outs which was roughly comparable to the league average of 60.4%.

 

For those following the playoffs and watching the Royals’ Alex Gordon, you might hear that he has been viewed as one of the best defenders in the game. Not just the best defender in left field: everywhere. According to Fangraphs.com’s UZR, his 25.0 mark is the best in baseball in all positions. He apparently did not just get that way by being born into in. Gordon has a pregame warmup routine in the field which is borderline psychotic:

 

They call it "power shagging." Gordon will take his position in left field and react to every ball hit in his vicinity as if it occurred in a game situation, going through all the motions of his crow hop and chasing after every ball in the gap as if it were the ninth inning of a tied game.

 

Center fielder Lorenzo Cain and right fielder Nori Aoki have started doing it, too. During Spring Training, video coordinator Mark Topping kept a camera on Gordon, broke the tape down into a three-minute highlight reel and sent it to all the affiliates as a teaching tool.

 

 

"All right, boys, you want to win a Gold Glove in the big leagues? This is what it's going to take," Kuntz said. "Hit the tape, here we go, boom. And for three minutes they just sit there with their eyes going, 'Are you kidding me?!'"

That’s how players go from good to great. If Aaron Hicks ultimately takes the left field role in 2015, he should adopt something similar to improve his game.

 

Next to the Twins’ 769 total flies/liners hit in left field, the Royals are second in baseball. Whereas the Twins were below average in converting balls into outs, the Royals’ left fielders, headlined by Gordon, stopped 63.7% of those balls from becoming hits.

 

For the visual learners, here is the ESPN/TruMedia spray charts associated with the two teams. Notice the significant real estate gap that does not contain hits from the Royals (right) compared to the Twins (left):

 

Download attachment: MIN_KC Spray Chart.png

Gordon has been a beacon of hope to his pitching staff when balls have been launched in his direction; he is particularly skilled at going back on balls. On the other hand, Twins pitchers have suffered due to the inability of getting back on plays such as this one.

 

http://i.imgur.com/Lsdop8J.gif

 

That Dayan Viciedo fly ball, which was catchable on the track, was turned into a triple thanks to the misplay. And if you look at the spray chart above, there are other examples of this happening. This was a far too common occurrence according to the data.

 

While it may not seem critical to some, the defensive integrity of this position is important because of the nature of the Twins’ pitching staff. As high-contact, low-strikeout hurlers they tend to allow more batted balls in play. As mentioned above, the Twins had the highest number of liners and flies hit toward left field. Many of them were deemed catchable by Inside Edge’s scouts. At worst, failing to do so gives the opposing team more opportunities to score and at the very least it adds unnecessary pitches to a highly-compensated pitcher’s totals.

 

 

Be it internal, through trade or free agency, employing a left fielder in 2015 who can turn more of these hits into outs should be a priority for the front office this offseason.

 

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[lightfoot789]

ABW or Arcia will be your Left Fielder of the Future with Buxton in Center.   Buxton will make whoever is around him that much better in the outfield.  It might even be Kepler as one of the 3 or 4th OFer.  All great centerfielders make the guys around them better.   If the minor leagues are our future then it might not be as bad as we all think.  Cedar Rapids (2013) and Fort Meyers (2014) had amongst the best records in all of minor league baseball (with 2013 being the best).   All of them run fairly well, even for big guys.  Their bats however have been the component that has won games and ultimately championships in the minors.  The pitching hasn't been bad either (thanks to coach Lucaas).  I'll take 80 - 85 HRs amongst the 3 outfielders to make of for the few lesser balls being reached in KC.  We are built for mirroring Baltimore more so than KC.  Adam Jones is the Gold Glover who makes their outfield work defensively in Baltimore.  Buxton will be ours along with playmates Walker and Arcia.  I know Walker needs to improve his contact rate if he is ever to play in the MLB.  I'll just defer until he stops hitting HRs and driving in RBIs 1st (a play on words because he's always first - haha).  Oh yeah - and stops winning.  No one has a better winning percentage than Walker or has played in more games over the last 2 years in the Twins system.  INTANGIBLES  MATTER  PEOPLE 

 

So whatever the upgrade - It needs to be short term, because their (young prospects) coming soon.

[SweetOne69]

ABW or Arcia will be your Left Fielder of the Future with Buxton in Center. 

 

Arcia shouldn't be in Right Field let alone Left.

[hybridbear]

Great tidbit about Alex Gordon. Thanks for sharing.

[Linus]

I'm not a fan of defensive metrics as I've seen too many examples that just don't make sense.  Those spray charts, however, are very illustrative and are a very straightforward way of showing the difference.

 

With left field being relatively large in Target Field, I hope the Twins go get an athletic left fielder and don't rely on Buxton to be the only answer to our outfield problems.  Arcia definitely needs to stay in right (or DH if Vargas doesn't make it).

[Seth Stohs]

That hit chart to left field was very interesting. I'm sure right field would look the same, but Arcia will have enough bat to carry it. The Royals were fortunate with Gordon because he can hit and field well. Remember when he came up? He struggled pretty mightily for a few years and some Royals fans were ready to call him a bust.

 

Of course, they have also called Mike Moustakus a bust and yet his defense is remarkable at third base. 

 

That's why I'm looking forward to (or hoping that) Eddie Rosario's bat plays in 2014 because I believe his defense in LF will be above average which could make him fairly valuable there if he can hit at all.

[Linus]

Didn't Gordon play 3rd base when he first came up?

[twinsnorth49]

ABW or Arcia will be your Left Fielder of the Future

Are you on the Twins PR team? You should be, you would fit right in 

 

The prospect of this made me lose my appetite for breakfast.

[Dantes929]

I don't trust the metrics but I do trust my eye somewhat.   I have seen games where the other team's outfielders caught balls I thought were sure doubles and I have seen our outfielders not catch balls that should have been easy outs.  Of course it affects the pitchers ERA in a big way and more importantly turns wins into losses.    Arcia in right is only ok if we have Rosario, Santana or HIcks in left and Buxton in center.    Pitchers need to improve on their own but giving them good outfielders will give them a significant boost.

[stringer bell]

Continuity and an outstanding defensive center fielder will improve the Twins outfield a lot. Having a good/better than good left fielder would also help a lot. In looking at available outfielders (free agent or trade), there just aren't many the fit the bill. Schafer in left is pretty good defensively, but as others have noted, his upside is negligible and his continued good performance is questionable.

[adjacent]

Very good article. I like the clarity of the spread chart. Also knowing what kind of work took gor Gordon to get where he is now. I hope whomever coach works with the outfielders next year pstarts a similar routine. I have a question. During the first part of the year in 2014 Willingham, Kubel, and even Barlett were in left field No wonder it was the worst in baseball. But from August on it was Schafer, sometimes Parmelee, a few times Nunezand I think Hicks was there a few times (maybe I am wrong in this one). How were the metrics of the last 2 months? Any sign of improvement? I know it will be an extremely low sample size, but just to get an idea. 

[Physics Guy]

I have a distinct feeling that no additions will be made to the outfield during the season.  If that is true, I propose the Twins put Santana in LF and Hicks in CF for the start of the season.  I've advocated moving Santana to SS next year, but I'm starting to feel that won't happen until the Twins get some help from the minors in the OF.  That help would most likely be Rosario in LF or Buxton in CF.  Until that happens, I would rather see Hicks in CF and Santana moved to LF than putting somebody lke Parmelee in LF and keeping Santana in CF.  We need to improve our overall OF defense next year.  Parmelee and Schaefer can be mixed in based on matchups. 

[Trov]

I think the key to what this shows the hard work that is needed, and how every moment you are either getting better or worse.  As a coach of baseball myself I get so upset when I see players who are screwing around warming up, instead of working on their game.  Gordon gets it.  Truth be told I have not seen the Twins closely, but with the mentality of Arcia, that has the chicks dig the long ball mind set, I would not believe defense is top on his mind. 

 

I think this is a very important time in the franchise.  We need to find the coaching staff that will teach the kids, and change the culture of the Twins.  The article, or a comment maybe, mentioned we are a pitch to contact staff, which is true, but hopefully we change that moving forward, and appears to be in the right step with Hughes.  The coaching staff should hopefully keep them going in that direction, Ryan seems to be adopting more of power pitching over pitching to contact with recent signings, trades, and drafts.  Pitching and defense is the key to winning games.

[Brandon]

LF Options internally for next season:

 

Schaefer

Nunez

Parmelee

Sano

Rosario

Hicks

 

Can the Twins find a manager that can optimally platoon the best 2 here unless Sano takes over at the allstar break.  Still not great but not horrible if done right.

[tobi0040]

At the end of the day, if the Twins want take defense seriously, Arcia or Vargas will need to be traded and the other the DH. 

[TheLeviathan]

I think this is relevant.  It also makes a compelling case that an elite OF defense can have a substantial impact.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I think Nuñez will be playing for a different team in 2015, just a hunch. I hope Parmelee is not in Left field, he's an adequate first baseman, but I cringed whenever he or Colabello were in the lineup playing the outfield.  

 

Schafer is perfectly capable to play in Left, with Hicks being at least average. I could see the Twins rolling with a rotation of those two and Danny Santana covering Center and Left. That said, I really really hope that the Twins add an outfielder that capable defensively and is a better hitter than Hicks/Schafer in Left, and/or a better CF defender.

 

Santana didn't embarass himself in CF the way that Escobar did (or Bartlett in Left) , but it's nowhere close to an ideal situation.

 

Colby Rasmus, Peter Bourjos, doesn't matter to me ultimately who the Twins find, but I feel that have to add somebody to the current rotation of outfielders that pushes those three down a space on the depth chart. 

[nicksaviking]

At the end of the day, if the Twins want take defense seriously, Arcia or Vargas will need to be traded and the other the DH. 

 

Probably, but then that means they aren't taking offense seriously.

[Lakeside]

LF Options internally for next season:

 

Schaefer

Nunez

Parmelee

Sano

Rosario

Hicks

 

Can the Twins find a manager that can optimally platoon the best 2 here unless Sano takes over at the allstar break.  Still not great but not horrible if done right.

[Lakeside]

This is how I see it too for the time being. Hicks hit lefthanders at .280 cli, offers speed on the bases, and can play defense. I don't want togive up on him too early ala Gomez.

 

I would suggest a platoon Hicks/Rosaio in LF with Schaeffer or Santana in CF until Buxton comes up then Santana as SS.

 

You could argue Santana at SS to start season to improve range there also.

[tobi0040]

Probably, but then that means they aren't taking offense seriously.

 

If they trade one of those guys and sign Bourjos for LF, I agree with you.  But surely some medium ground exists, no?  I do see a risk with some of the names, like Bourjos that the worry this year is the defense and next year "we need a better bat in the corners".

 

Colby Rasmus is 28, has a career .750 OPS and a positive career dWAR.  He is not going to cost too much.

 

Plenty of ways to get creative and platoon LF as well.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Colby Rasmus is 28, has a career .750 OPS and a positive career dWAR.  He is not going to cost too much.

I've seen Rasmus' name mentioned by fans of other teams too.  Suggests he could cost more than you think, and it may take some luck to land him.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

It's possible (not likely, just possible) that the Twins could get production from Eddie Rosario in LF - There's not much data to say his bat would be that great in the majors yet, but even putting Rosario there would feel like an upgrade to me over Parmelee/Colabello/Willingham/Kubel/Bartlett etc.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I've seen Rasmus' name mentioned by fans of other teams too.  Suggests he could cost more than you think, and it may take some luck to land him.

MLB Trade Rumors guessed it would be about $12MM on a one year deal (assuming he'd take just one year).

[tobi0040]

I've seen Rasmus' name mentioned by fans of other teams too.  Suggests he could cost more than you think, and it may take some luck to land him.

 

Maybe.  Looking at last year as a comp....he isn't going to sniff Choo, Ellsbury, Beltran, or Granderson money.  Here is a list of players in the same OPS range (.750):

 

Kelly Johnson  .755   1 year, $3M

Rajai Davis     .697 OPS  2 years, $10M

David Dejesus .769 OPS, 2 years, $10M

Nate Mcclouth  .742 OPS, .2 years, $10M

Dave Murphy  .768 OPS, 2 years, $12M

 

Now I could  not find a good comp as Rasmus is only 28 and these guys are in the 30-32 range.  So I think he gets a little more annually and another year.  I think he winds up with 3-21 or 3-24.  Something in that range.

[tobi0040]

MLB Trade Rumors guessed it would be about $12MM on a one year deal (assuming he'd take just one year).

 

If he even comes close to $12M on a multi year deal, the Twins should have no part of it.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

If Rasmus wants that Granderson money, I think he'd need to sign a 1-year deal somewhere and have a really good season. Then he'd still only be 29 and a good season could make someone overpay for his services.

 

The Twins could really use Rasmus in 2015, but I agree $12MM/year is a bit steep considering what the Twins typically spend. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

MLB Trade Rumors guessed it would be about $12MM on a one year deal (assuming he'd take just one year).

They also said:

 

 

Ultimately, I believe Rasmus will prioritize finding the right fit over maxing his earnings, whether on a one-year or multi-year deal. I do find a make-good contract to be the likelier outcome, and think that Rasmus will be able to reach $12MM on a one-year deal. But I would not be surprised if he ultimately scores a three-year pact.

Which suggests he will have a host of similar one-year offers to choose from.

 

Not saying he's necessarily a bad target, but you will want to be comfortable with your backup plan.

[tobi0040]

If Rasmus wants that Granderson money, I think he'd need to sign a 1-year deal somewhere and have a really good season. Then he'd still only be 29 and a good season could make someone overpay for his services.

 

The Twins could really use Rasmus in 2015, but I agree $12MM/year is a bit steep considering what the Twins typically spend. 

 

I don't know how you go from platoon player halfway through the year to $12M a year on a multi-year deal.  If someone wants to do that, more power to them.

[adjacent]

Maybe.  Looking at last year as a comp....he isn't going to sniff Choo, Ellsbury, Beltran, or Granderson money.  Here is a list of players in the same OPS range (.750):

 

Kelly Johnson  .755   1 year, $3M

Rajai Davis     .697 OPS  2 years, $10M

David Dejesus .769 OPS, 2 years, $10M

Nate Mcclouth  .742 OPS, .2 years, $10M

Dave Murphy  .768 OPS, 2 years, $12M

 

Now I could  not find a good comp as Rasmus is only 28 and these guys are in the 30-32 range.  So I think he gets a little more annually and another year.  I think he winds up with 3-21 or 3-24.  Something in that range.

Another name to add to the list is Rios. Rangers declined his option.