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[drjim]

Bloomberg does a revenue estimate and franchise valuation just like Forbes.  I think we're better off using their estimates more like how WAR should be used (precise enough to get an idea and range), rather than an absolute gospel. 

 

Both publications place the Twins' franchise value at 19th.  Both valuation methods are based on the revenues they generate, so you can equate that to mean the Twins' are roughly 19th at generating revenue.  The industry model which the Twins have cited puts payroll expenses at 50-52% of revenue.  That's going to mean the Twins have an average payroll somewhere in the range around 19th.

 

If we didn't have Target Field, that revenue generation would be even lower.  Franchise value would be lower.  Average payrolls would be lower.

 

The other fact I would cite is that the Twins are now eligible for competitive balance picks, which means they are in the 15-20 range for revenue range based on the fundamentals of market, etc. That is probably where the Twins will be in regards to average payroll.

 

They are certainly in the low end now, while they are rebuilding, but they were 9th in 2011 when they thought they were competing. Drawing huge sweeping conclusions based on the last couple of years, when the state of the Twins product on the field is at its worst, seems a little irresponsible. If this is an emotional reaction to them being so bad fine, but if it is a level headed analysis and assumption of what it will be like going forward time immemorial, then there probably will never be any satisfaction in the next couple of years.

[tobi0040]

The other fact I would cite is that the Twins are now eligible for competitive balance picks, which means they are

 

The other fact I would cite is that the Twins are now eligible for competitive balance picks, which means they are in the 15-20 range for revenue range based on the fundamentals of market, etc. That is probably where the Twins will be in regards to average payroll.

 

They are certainly in the low end now, while they are rebuilding, but they were 9th in 2011 when they thought they were competing. Drawing huge sweeping conclusions based on the last couple of years, when the state of the Twins product on the field is at its worst, seems a little irresponsible. If this is an emotional reaction to them being so bad fine, but if it is a level headed analysis and assumption of what it will be like going forward time immemorial, then there probably will never be any satisfaction in the next couple of years.

 

in the 15-20 range for revenue range based on the fundamentals of market, etc. That is probably where the Twins will be in regards to average payroll.

 

They are certainly in the low end now, while they are rebuilding, but they were 9th in 2011 when they thought they were competing. Drawing huge sweeping conclusions based on the last couple of years, when the state of the Twins product on the field is at its worst, seems a little irresponsible. If this is an emotional reaction to them being so bad fine, but if it is a level headed analysis and assumption of what it will be like going forward time immemorial, then there probably will never be any satisfaction in the next couple of years.

 

Time will tell if they are ever 9th again.  Even in 2011, a 65 win team with the 9th largest payroll made $26.5M because everyone still wanted to see the new ballpark and/or were locked into season tickets because they too thought we had a winner.

 

I don't think the Twins will have that luxury in a long time.

 

I am not simply frustrated by the losses, I am frustrated because they haven't, in my opinion really fully committed to a rebuild or been honest with the fans about where they are.

[jay]

I am not simply frustrated by the losses, I am frustrated because they haven't, in my opinion really fully committed to a rebuild or been honest with the fans about where they are.

 

How would you characterize Terry Ryan's recent comments?

[Rosterman]

Am I going invest to see Sano and Buxton, probably. When they actually come up. There is no guarantee that they will play next season at Target Field, so I will wait and see in my ticket buying.

 

So will many others. If new blood arrives (Meyer filling out a rotation, Sano and Buxton plug in to weak holes in the batting order) and if everyone else plays to their average highs, the Twins will clean up as they will control the individual ticket prices. With 10,000 season ticket holders, won't be a lot on StubHub.

 

And two things about economics. Baseball is a club. People are lined up to take your franchise off your hands. Every year you are in existence, the worth of your franchise increases.

 

Plus, if you have a variety of businesses, you can afford to lose money in one to offset profits in another.

 

And I still harp on the 50%. Most union businesses demand that employee payroll is a certain part of operating costs. That you just can't hire cheap help yet demand high prices for your product. I still don't know why the Twins need $100 million to operate the team outside payroll when it was $50 million a decade ago. Management (at least most management) salaries don't increase like player salaries. 

 

The Twins have money to spend some of it will get burned. We paid Baker not to pitch. We paid Blackburn not to pitch. Morneau and Mauer have both ate up time on the DL. Nathan was paid not to pitch. Hell, we gave Zumaya how much to do nothing. it's part of the game, the gamble. 

 

I will argue that, yes, I would rather have a Hughes for 3 years at his price than a Nolasco for 4 years, although I suddenly want to see that reversed, but Hughes could tank and be a one-year wonder like Willingham. We could've paid Cuddyer $10 million more, and still only get one solid season, too.

 

But it is the dregs that make us fans seem miserable. i can stomach a year of Trevor May learning the ropes, but see no reason we should get the near same production out of a Deduno of Pino, and not see Meyer. Let's no sooner, rather than later, if prospects have what it takes to play in the big leagues. I applaud that Hicks got not one, but two, years in the sun, but that experiment is done and we have to address the issue, or bring up Buxton fast. I'm not going to watch Schafer out there, no matter the numbers he puts up..

 

I'm still scared that Santana will not produce, a prospect rated behind Rosario, Sano and a number of others. That Vargas will continue a downward spiral. That Arcia is far from a complete package. But they got a chance and will be given every opportunity to prove themselves even more now, That the Twins know that Pinto can't catch, yet we sign a guy that can't throw anyone out, that we couldn't move at the trade deadline to another team, and that a replacement is out there as a free agent.

 

Spending aside, the Twins need to put butts in the seat. They can't market Target Field, there is no All-Star Game, the Saints will have a new outdoor stadium, saving 10% on concessions hurts the vendors who will be selling stuff to an empty stadium.

 

Will Twinsfest happen? Do I want to see or pay to get any player autographs? Is anyone from the front office going to dazzle me with talk? Maybe a new manager will be good for soundbites, but few are actually that media savvy. Even Joe Mauer is no longer king and has to work doubly hard not to fall further.

 

As I said in another post; marketing the Twins starts with the players, the product you put on the field. That IS your marketing budget, too. Clever commercial strategies can fail, like flushing money away. Signing players can also fail, it is a part of the business. You have to convince me to buy a ticket, pay for parking, eat concessions. You have to make me want to wear the team, or a player's, jersey. You must make me want to listen to the game on radio (which I can't because of the damned signal - and the lousey station that is there purely to make your own highest possible profit) or watch it on television...day in and day out.

 

And running your baseball entertainment team like a real business, with an eye on the spreadsheet, and planning for failure rather than success, is not going to get dollar one from me.

 

Maybe it is time to get on the Royals bandwagon. It isn't that long of a drive to Kansas City. And the rubs are great!!

[JB_Iowa]

And I still harp on the 50%. Most union businesses demand that employee payroll is a certain part of operating costs. That you just can't hire cheap help yet demand high prices for your product. I still don't know why the Twins need $100 million to operate the team outside payroll when it was $50 million a decade ago. Management (at least most management) salaries don't increase like player salaries. 

 

 

 

Maybe it is time to get on the Royals bandwagon. It isn't that long of a drive to Kansas City. And the rubs are great!!

 

I do think the Twins have some additional costs operating TF vs the dome but overall I think they use the 50% "rule" to their advantage. 

 

 

 

And the rubs help the ribs taste great!

[LaBombo]

"We're not rebuilding," Ryan said. …"we're going into this thing to compete."

In what year did Ryan make the above comment?

a. 2011

b. 2012

c. 2013

d. 2014

 

Yep, you guessed correctly.

 

 

Nope, I didn't guess correctly.  Befuddled because my top choice, 'e. All of the above' was missing, and also because I remembered that my next pick, '1950', was actually the year that USMC General Oliver P. Smith said of the Battle of the Chosin Reservoir in Korea, "Retreat, hell!  We're not retreating, we're just advancing in a different direction!"

 

Fortunately for the good citizens of South Korea, General Smith was as good as his word.  Still hoping Ryan and the Twins will be too.

 

[drjim]

I guess I don't understand why people are so offended when Terry Ryan publicly says he wants to compete, even when he realizes it probably isn't going to happen.

[freshinthehouse]

Yeah this doesn't bother me either.  Nearly every GM lies through their teeth when they are interviewed.  Dude has a some responsibility when it comes to duping the fairweather fans.  It's part of their job.  What are they gonna say?  "Oh boy, are we gonna stink up the joint this year.  But hey, stop by and enjoy some overpriced hot dogs!"

[tobi0040]

How would you characterize Terry Ryan's recent comments?

 

I guess I don't know what exact comments you are referring to.  But that the end of the day in 2011-2013, it was clear they were not going to field a winning team.  Yet they repeated the same two lines, we are going to compete this year and money will not prevent us from x, y, or z.  But on the field, it is the decisions that don't point to a rebuild, like minor league deals to 34 year old has been's, or Pinto and Santana out of position, or AAAA starters over Meyer, May, etc. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I guess I don't understand why people are so offended when Terry Ryan publicly says he wants to compete, even when he realizes it probably isn't going to happen.

 

Fair point -- it's hard to stay on message when you are interviewed no less than 5-10 times a week, year round.

 

My bigger point is that this team doesn't even have a message. They have no public relations strategy. Nothing. They have a marketing dept but I don't think that's the same thing. They have no idea what they want to say about any particular topic, how to be honest about it, and they have no idea what the public wants to hear.

 

This is not to question Ryan's scouting mind. It's to point out a plain-as-day deficiency. Someone needs to sit Twins management down in a room and clue them in. I don't know if Pohlad would be on board with this or not. 

 

Going into 2012 they hyped young guys like Dozier, Revere, but then they gave a heavy dose of playing time to downside veterans like Hammer, Doumit, Carroll. Then 2013, rinse and repeat. Everybody should be on the same page of where the organization is going, which was another problem the past few years. 

[glunn]

Let's go back to the Red Herring concept...

 

 I see this as a non topic and won't even look at responses to this post. Let's move on...

 

Moderator note -- if you don't like a thread please just ignore it, don't drop a grenade then leave.  

[glunn]

General moderator note -- please try to reduce the personal attacks in this thread.  There have been good arguments made on multiple issues and reasonable people may disagree about a lot of this.  

 

When it gets too personal, that often sidetracks a thread.  Please keep this in mind when your inner Mongo makes you want to flame someone who you believe has taken a position that is completely wrong.  

 

We are letting the players play in this thread, but a few of you have come close to infraction territory.  There is no reason for that.  You can make your points as forcefully as you wish.  Just don't squabble.

[jay]

But that the end of the day in 2011-2013, it was clear they were not going to field a winning team.  Yet they repeated the same two lines, we are going to compete this year and money will not prevent us from x, y, or z.  But on the field, it is the decisions that don't point to a rebuild, like minor league deals to 34 year old has been's, or Pinto and Santana out of position, or AAAA starters over Meyer, May, etc. 

 

They didn't embrace an Astros-style rebuild, which I would have welcomed personally.  There have been plenty of actions that do point to rebuild not mentioned here, but I'd agree that some don't.

 

Consider this though...

What would we hear from those who think the Twins already don't spend enough or that Target Field was a rip off?  How much worse would it look to completely sell out on winning and inherently slash payroll two years into your new stadium?  Look at what the Astros approach did to their attendance and ratings figures.  Then, add in that you were scheduled to host an All-Star game.

[nicksaviking]

How would you characterize Terry Ryan's recent comments?

 

Three years overdue.

[tobi0040]

They didn't embrace an Astros-style rebuild, which I would have welcomed personally.  There have been plenty of actions that do point to rebuild not mentioned here, but I'd agree that some don't.

 

Consider this though...

What would we hear from those who think the Twins already don't spend enough or that Target Field was a rip off?  How much worse would it look to completely sell out on winning and inherently slash payroll two years into your new stadium?  Look at what the Astros approach did to their attendance and ratings figures.  Then, add in that you were scheduled to host an All-Star game.

 

I would have loved an Astros style rebuild as well.  The kicker is we had the exact same record as they did this year, but of course they did it with future players.  I also agree we took some strides that reeked of a rebuild....like the Span and Revere trades.  Promoted Vargas, etc.  But I don't get the point of doing it half-way. 

 

I am torn on what the fans would have thought.  Some would call them cheap either way, frankly.  But if they would have communicated what they were doing and why....I think fans would have started to see hope sooner.  For example, if they would have brought up May and Meyer sooner this year (or Meyer at all obviously), guys like Tonkin, the fan base could have at least been inspired by the future.  I think these moves could have also sped up our return to relevance.  So even for those folks that were negative, they would have eventually been sold that a real rebuild was the right approach.

 

Losing breeds unhappy fans.  But losing with an old team breeds even less hope, IMO.

[USAFChief]

Who should the Twins have promoted to the majors in 2012 or 2013 that they didnt?

 

Who should they have traded?

[tobi0040]

Who should the Twins have promoted to the majors in 2012 or 2013 that they didnt?

 

Who should they have traded?

 

I will give you this....the cupboards were pretty bare in 2012 specifically. Regarding the signings....it would have been nice to target younger players.  Whether that be via trade or international signings. The Pelfrey's and KC's?  Just didn't make any sense.

 

Last year was a different story.  I work for a fortune 100 company where every quote to the media, commercial, and customer experience is supposed to be consistent. A clear message and direction from the top......I think the Twins could have used a clear directive regarding the state of the team from the owners.   Because last year what we had was a GM that was half in and half out, and a manager playing for his job who didn't care about next year even when we were going to lose 90 again. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I will give you this....the cupboards were pretty bare in 2012 specifically. Regarding the signings....it would have been nice to target younger players.  Whether that be via trade or international signings. The Pelfrey's and KC's?  Just didn't make any sense.

 

Last year was a different story.  I work for a fortune 100 company where every quote to the media, commercial, and customer experience is supposed to be consistent. A clear message and direction from the top......I think the Twins could have used a clear directive regarding the state of the team from the owners.   Because last year what we had was a GM that was half in and half out, and a manager playing for his job who didn't care about next year even when we were going to lose 90 again.

 

This is my point, too. I definitely do not want to denigrate Twins employees who work hard every day all year at their jobs. The Twins have had a lot of moving parts pulled in many directions lately, with much time and effort being put into the ASG experience last summer, there is Terry's health, missed time last spring, Gardy being Gardy, and who knows what else the team was dealing with.

 

I just don't think that excuses recent comments like "we will not drastically slash payroll!" and also "Sano? meh, unlikely you'll see much of that guy this year," and several other comments, take your pick. I think it's fair if people want to give upper management some heat.

[nicksaviking]

Who should the Twins have promoted to the majors in 2012 or 2013 that they didnt?

 

Who should they have traded?

 

Which is why the team probably should have signed better quality free agents to 2-3 year deals in 2011-2013 who wouldn't block any young players. You then trade, offer a QO or let them walk, and began with the younger guys in 2014-16 now that the youngsters are becoming ready. 

 

I'm in the minority as I'm fine with a roster made up of cheap players under 30 years old now.  I don't desire a large payroll this year.  It should have been higher though during the years without a prospect heavy lineup.

[laloesch]

I think they were [mostly] truthful--there is a salary cap, the team is run as business not for amusement, a tacit admission that 2015 will be "punted", and a not very subtle dig at Mauer.  The newspaper article highlighted the salaries of the highest paid players, and the percent of (planned) payroll that each player represents.  A bit more reading between the lines causes me (and I hope most others) to conclude that the FO believes they are: sorely constrained by Mauer's contract,  that it is the fans' fault he was signed to this elephantine contract, and they can't wait to be rid of said contract.  See, it's our fault, that the Twins are in this mess.

 

There's no doubt that the FO is bothered by the Mauer contract and if Ryan had been GM, Joe would have gotten a substantially smaller deal or been traded.  Nobody should be fooled by Ryan's deflective sarcasm and payroll excuses.  For example when someone questions them about not spending enough he will often say, "well we had a payroll of 113 million in 2011, so money is not an issue." blah blah blah 

 

In reality, It is...... at least in their minds anyways.  Add to it the Nolasco deal and we have 35 million a year in bad contracts (not counting Pelfrey's deal) for the next four seasons. 

 

If I were a betting man, I'd also wager that this will become an excuse over the next few years to not go after quality free agents and not re-sign Phil Hughes if he keeps pitching like 2014.   

[laloesch]

I would have loved an Astros style rebuild as well.  The kicker is we had the exact same record as they did this year, but of course they did it with future players.  I also agree we took some strides that reeked of a rebuild....like the Span and Revere trades.  Promoted Vargas, etc.  But I don't get the point of doing it half-way. 

 

I am torn on what the fans would have thought.  Some would call them cheap either way, frankly.  But if they would have communicated what they were doing and why....I think fans would have started to see hope sooner.  For example, if they would have brought up May and Meyer sooner this year (or Meyer at all obviously), guys like Tonkin, the fan base could have at least been inspired by the future.  I think these moves could have also sped up our return to relevance.  So even for those folks that were negative, they would have eventually been sold that a real rebuild was the right approach.

 

Losing breeds unhappy fans.  But losing with an old team breeds even less hope, IMO.

 

This is what I don't get.  There's no excuse for May AND Meyer not getting called up by mid-season.  Both were doing far to well to sit around in AAA all season, considering how sorry the major league rotation was (with the exception of Hughes and Gibson at times).

 

Still in typical Twins fashion they first had to march out Deduno, Correia, Johnson, Darnell, Pino and even toyed with Swarzak before finally calling up May. WTF!   May and Meyer are the future.  Why else would you trade two quality outfielders for them?  Just doesn't make any sense.   Get them out there off and running so that most of the rookie kinks are gone before 2015.  Oh and before I forget,  Terry Ryan is bound determined that Pelfrey will be part of the rotation in 2015. Yuck! 

 

Well we all know how 2014 worked out. Nolasco was awful, Gibson faded down the stretch, Hughes was awesome, May got 10-12 starts and struggled, Meyer never saw the majors before being shut down and the FO threw a whole lot of junk into  the rotation (AGAIN).  All of this likely means that 2015 is basically a total write off (which Ryan has basically admitted), and it also means they sell less tickets and hurts revenues.  Just doesn't make any sense.   

 

On the one hand I was thrilled to see Vargas and Santana get called up and do well, but it only happened after several ineffective players got hurt and Ryan had no other choice.  Every squirrel finds a nut once in a while.  If Buxton, Rosario and Sano don't make it to the major next season its going to be another LONG dreadful year.

 

Speaking of blind luck how about the Pinto / Suzukii situation?  That's another interesting topic.  Has the FO completely given up on Pinto?  Wow.