Article: Twins Arizona Fall League Preview

[Seth Stohs]

Today marks the beginning of the Arizona Fall League season. The seven Minnesota Twins minor leaguers participating will play for the Salt River Rafters along with prospects from the Astros, Diamondbacks, Marlins and Rockies. Each team will play 32 games over the next six weeks with a championship game on November 15.In a rather unusual situation, four of the seven Twins minor leaguers will be returning to the Fall League. On the most basic level, each hitter has the opportunity to get more at bats while every pitcher gets to work more innings. They get to do that against some high-caliber competition from around the minor leagues. For each, their opportunity is a little different.

 

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For Byron Buxton, it provides him with an opportunity to get 22 to 25 games and 75 to 100 plate appearances. After missing so much time in 2014 due to injury, this is a great opportunity for him to regain some timing in real games. Timing at the plate, but also timing and confidence in the outfield following his concussion. This is about getting him time to alleviate some of the concerns that might pop up in his own mind going into 2015. Although he played in the league a year ago, he is the second-youngest player on the 2014 Rafters team, older than only Rio Ruiz.

 

For Max Kepler, it provides more repetitions. He came on strong in the Ft. Myers Miracle’s second half at the plate, but various minor injuries hurt him in the first half. He continued to play all three outfield positions during the season as well as recording time at first base. Despite being a professional since he signed with the Twins in 2009, he is still young in his development. For him, there is an opportunity to show that he warrants a spot on the Twins 40 man roster. Kepler is the third youngest player on the team’s roster.

 

Eddie Rosario is looking for an opportunity to redeem himself. Since the end of last year’s Fall League, his career trajectory has certainly gone in a concerning direction. Shortly after he left a year ago, news broke that he had failed a drug test and would be suspended. He was given permission to take some time off during spring training and did not arrive in Ft. Myers until the regular season. After serving the 50-game suspension and getting to New Britain, he didn’t hit like we know he can. This time will give Rosario more opportunities to regain his offensive prowess. He will be added to the 40 man roster in November, to be sure, but he can again raise his prospect status.

 

Jason Adam is a right-handed pitcher who came to the Twins organization in the Josh Willingham trade on August 11. It’s an opportunity for Twins scouts to learn a little more about him. It’s an opportunity for him to work with some of the other top prospects to get to know him, and vice versa. The 23-year-old is also eligible for the Rule 5 draft this year so the Twins will need to determine whether or not to add him.

 

Zack Jones’ season was cut short this year before it even started. In fact, it was toward the end of his run in the Fall League last year that Jones said that his right-hand’s fingers felt cold. After the New Year, doctors found an aneurysm in his right shoulder and he had surgery. After that, a blood clot was found in his leg. He didn’t need surgery for that but it further delayed his return to Ft. Myers and to the mound. He got back to the Miracle for the final two weeks of the regular season and reclaimed the closer’s role. He hit 96 and 97 many times, but as he was closing out games in the Florida State League championship series, he hit 98 on several occasions. Now he will get more innings against great competition. He replaced Mason Melotakis on the roster a couple of weeks ago.

 

The truest test for college starting pitchers seems to happen in AA. Despite a rough first month in New Britain, Taylor Rogers passed the AA test with flying colors. He missed two or three starts with a biceps strain, but returned and continued to throw well. He doesn’t get a lot of strikeouts, so it’ll be interesting to see how he adapts to the offense-friendly Arizona Fall League. Baseball America reported that the lefty was hitting 95 on the radar gun this season, and he has a good slider. He should join the likes of Archie Bradley and Mark Appel in the Rafters’ rotation.

 

Reliever Jake Reed was the Twins fifth-round draft pick just this year out of the University of Oregon. He dominated in four games in Elizabethton and 16 more appearances in Cedar Rapids. It will be a great opportunity for the 22-year-old to show what he can do against a higher level of competition, guys typically from AA. With a fastball reaching into the upper-90s, Reed has the opportunity to progress quickly with the Twins.

 

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It’s important to remember that the statistics accumulated in the Arizona Fall League are not as important as the plate appearances and the innings. A great showing doesn’t guarantee future success, and a poor showing doesn’t mean that a player won’t become a big leaguer.

 

A quick look at the past Twins participants shows that to be the case:

• 2013 – AJ Achter, Zack Jones, Trevor May, Alex Meyer, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario
• 2012 – Logan Darnell, Kyle Gibson, Caleb Thielbar, Michael Tonkin, Evan Bigley, Chris Herrmann, Nate Roberts, Dan Rohlfing
• 2011 – Cole DeVries, Bret Jacobson, Bruce Pugh, Dakota Watts, Brian Dozier, Chris Herrmann, Aaron Hicks
• 2010 – David Bromberg, Carlos Gutierrez, Tyler Robertson, Kyle Waldrop, Joe Benson, Chris Parmelee, Ben Revere
• 2009 – Alex Burnett, Steven Hirschfeld, Michael McCardell, Spencer Steedley, Chris Parmelee, Steve Singleton, Rene Tosoni
• 2008 – Rob Delaney, Tim Lahey, Jeff Manship, Anthony Slama, Dustin Martin, Steven Tolleson, Danny Valencia
• 2007 – Nick Blackburn, Eduardo Morlan, Ryan Mullins, Anthony Swarzak, Drew Butera, Matt Macri, Trevor Plouffe
• 2006 – Kevin Cameron, Jay Sawatski, Errol Simonitsch, Kevin Slowey, Doug Deeds, Matt Moses, Matt Tolbert, David Winfree
• 2005 – Ricky Barrett, Travis Bowyer, Glen Perkins, Garrett Jones, Matt Moses, Denard Span
• 2004 – Scott Baker, Jesse Crain, JD Durbin, Rob Bowen, Jason Bartlett, Jason Kubel, Kevin West
• 2003 – Henry Bonilla, Pat Neshek, Brian Wolfe, Rob Bowen, Jake Mauer, Terry TIffee
• 2002 – Willie Eyre, Brent Hoard, Brad Thomas, Rob Bowen, Justin Morneau, Michael Restovich
• 2001 – Grant Balfour, Pete Fisher, Kevin Frederick, Rob Bowen, Michael Cuddyer, Matthew LeCroy
• 2000 – Matt Kinney, Kyle Lohse, Lee Marshall, Ryan Mills, Bobby Kielty, Matthew LeCroy
• 1999 – David Hooten, Matt Kinney, Nate Yeskie, Dan Cey, Michael Cuddyer, Chad Moeller
• 1998 – Mike Lincoln, Joe Mays, Brent Stentz, Torii Hunter, Doug Mientkiewicz, AJ Pierzynski
• 1997 – Tom Gourdin, Jeff Harris, Brad Niedermaier, Dan Perkins, Benj Sampson, Corey Koskie, Chad Moeller, Mike Moriarity
• 1996 – Jason Bell, Mark Redman, Todd Ritchie, Dan Serafini, JJ Johnson, Jamie Ogden
• 1995 – LaTroy Hawkins, Dan Naulty, Kevin Ohme, Matt Lawton, Jamie Ogden, Kevin Simons, Todd Walker
• 1994 – Gus Gandarillas, Dan Serafini, Scott Watkins, Marty Cordova, Brian Raabe, Scott Stahoviak
• 1993 – Sean Gavaghan, Todd Ritchie, Bill Wissler, Anthony Byrd, Mike Durant, Denny Hocking
• 1992 – Jon Henry, Rex De La Nuez, Chip Hale, Ray Ortiz, Derek Parks

If you’re able to make a trip to Arizona over the next six weeks, the Salt River Rafters play in Scottsdale. Single game tickets are just $8. And, you’ll have a great seat as too few people attend the games. It’s a wonderful experience.

 

I went for a couple of days in 2009 and sat right by the dugout for two games. It was fun to see the Twins prospects, but it was also fun to see the prospects I had read about online or in Baseball America and such. It’s a very laid back, relaxed experience that should be a Bucket List item for baseball fans.

 

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[stringer bell]

Great opportunities for the Twins prospects.  It is crucial for Buxton to get reps at that level.  I have been thinking that Rosario is my sneaky pick to make an impact with the Twins next season. 

[USAFChief]

Rumor has it Ashburyjohn and Chief will be in attendance this Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, each with a son in tow.

 

Look for the two old guys...that'll be the two sons.

[Steven Buhr]

Just checked and found I could fly down there for about $200 round trip. I can't think of any good reason why I haven't made that trip yet.

[big dog]

Looking at those rosters, it seems like most years the group turns into 1-3 at least somewhat productive major leaguers.  By somewhat productive I'm just thinking of more than a few brief appearances (my definition: Matthew Lecroy, yes, Tyler Robertson, no).  The high is 5 in 1998 including Mike Lincoln (263 appearances in MLB).  2004 was a good year as well, or at least it was until Kubel tore up his knee (Baker, Crain, Bartlett, Kubel).

 

Let's hope for at least 5 out of this group.  It looks a lot stronger than the the others, especially recent years.  2008-2010 didn't work out too well compared to average.

[clutterheart]

Two questions:

1 Will Buxton play? Is he recovered?

 

2 Why doesn't Rogers get strike outs? A lefty who throws hard should be getting more than he is

[Seth Stohs]

Two questions:

1 Will Buxton play? Is he recovered?

 

2 Why doesn't Rogers get strike outs? A lefty who throws hard should be getting more than he is

 

1.) Yes, he's been given clearance and he has been playing in Instructional League.

 

2.) I'm not certain. Maybe consistency with secondary pitches... I'm really not sure. 

[iTwins]

There's a lot to keep an eye on (from the Twins' perspective) this year. Buxton: finally getting back into live competition after missing the entire year.

 

Kepler: Can he keep up his hot second half and perhaps show he's ready for AA?

 

Rosario: Can he prove his struggles were rust related and show top prospect stuff once again? If so - he may be closer to the big league club than we think.

 

I keep an eye on the fall league every year anyway, but there's an extra layer of interest this year. Some (potential) future Twins could be making a move in the right direction.

[Seth Stohs]

It will also just be nice to have some box scores to look at again with some minor leaguers names in them.

[nater79a]

Seth- Where is a good place to find the box scores?

[nater79a]

Glendale Desert Dogs. Best team name in the AFL.

 

Sunrise Saguaros sounds like a Mexican margarita bar I would be happy to frequent.

[tobi0040]

Seth- Where is a good place to find the box scores?

 

MLB.com has them.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/afl/

[Physics Guy]

Thanks for the update Seth!

[stringer bell]

I've been thinking about Rosario for a while.  He had a disappointing season in New Britain, but the young man can hit and he would fill the bill for the Twins as far as being a good fielder, with some speed in either left or center.

 

It certainly will require both a good AFL and spring training for Rosario to threaten for a roster spot, but if the Twins don't acquire an outfielder there is room for someone to step up.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I still think Rosario has more value in CF or 2B than in LF, in my opinion.  I agree there's room if he steps up, but given that he hasn't hit well yet in AA, I don't see him spending any time in the majors until mid-summer at the earliest.

[Seth Stohs]

I still think Rosario has more value in CF or 2B than in LF, in my opinion.  I agree there's room if he steps up, but given that he hasn't hit well yet in AA, I don't see him spending any time in the majors until mid-summer at the earliest.

 

Sure, but presumably Byron Buxton will be in CF and Brian Dozier will be at 2B for awhile. So, you take Rosario and move him to LF where his defense will be likely above average and you take the batting average and doubles power that he provides.

 

But I would agree... it'll be a little while before we see him in the big leagues. Midseason is best case, and there is no rush since he'll only be added to the 40 man roster in November.

[tobi0040]

Buck went 0-4 with a BB and SB (error as well).   Eddie went 2-4 with a SB

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Nice! I will take an 0-4 over DNP-injured from Buxton any day.

[Steve Lein]

I still think Rosario has more value in CF or 2B than in LF, in my opinion.  I agree there's room if he steps up...

 

No doubt about that.  But he will be a corner-guy as long as Buxton and Dozier are around.  And just to throw this out there, I don't think he'd be a better defensive OF than what the Twins were putting out in CF this year, if you think he'd improve that aspect of the position.  He would be an asset defensively in LF I believe, though.

[tobi0040]

No doubt about that.  But he will be a corner-guy as long as Buxton and Dozier are around.  And just to throw this out there, I don't think he'd be a better defensive OF than what the Twins were putting out in CF this year, if you think he'd improve that aspect of the position.  He would be an asset defensively in LF I believe, though.

 

I agree about Rosario.  If he can get to the .750 OPS range I think he is an asset on this team. Having a natural CF play LF would be a huge defensive improvement.

 

The question will be whether or not he has more value via trade, as CF or 2B would provide more value somewhere else than LF here.  I think he has to get reps and produce before we have any clarity.

[stringer bell]

Rosario had two more hits and a SB last night (now 4-9 w/ 2 SB).  Buxton didn't play.  Rogers started and gave up one earned in 2.2 innings.  Kepler had a hit and an assist from right field.

 

Keep it up Eddie.  There is a job to be claimed on the Twins and if you're undeniably the best player, last year shouldn't matter. 

[ashbury]

Rogers left because he got nicked on his pitching forearm by a batted ball.  Chief and I watched the trainer (one in a Twins uniform) tend to him, in the opponents' bullpen for some reason.  After a while they departed for somewhere hidden in the bowels of the ballpark.  Rogers had been able to make the throw to get the batter out, and it didn't appear he was in any signficant discomfort while the trainer was looking at him, so I'm hopeful it's just a mild contusion.  The 15-day Day To Day list, as Chief said.   Lesson learned, I hope - avoid using the meat-hand for fielding purposes.

 

Not mentioned above was Zach Jones who got in two innings of work.  I was impressed with his off-speed pitches - curve or change or both? -  that froze several batters, including for third strikes.  Nice complement to his 95+ fastball.  However, he gave up a ringing ground rule double (nearly a homer) on a 77 MPH pitch, so it remains to be seen whether he can avoid Anthony Slama Disease, i.e. get the knock on him that the pitches taken for strikes in the minors won't translate to the majors.  Still, I'm hopeful he can continue to disguise his pitches to the better hitters, and this is what the AFL is for.

 

Max's assist in RF was a very nice throw to nail a runner going to third.

[USAFChief]

Chiming in...what a delightful night in the desert....absolutely perfect weather, a couple hundredfans in aattendance, seats wherever you want, and Jones hitting 99 on the stadium gun.

 

I also should note Ash's son is a remarkable young man...bright, funny, warm and engaging, and he keeps score! He obviously takes after his mother.

[ashbury]

I read the above to my son.  He said, "Mom doesn't keep score". I told him, "you don't know anything about women".

 

As for having good sons, Chief is in a position to know.

[Zachary]

Chief, if the two sons are the old ones... What does that make the two fathers?

[USAFChief]

Chief, if the two sons are the old ones... What does that make the two fathers?

the ones with the debit cards.

[stringer bell]

Rosario had two more hits and a SB last night (now 4-9 w/ 2 SB).  Buxton didn't play.  Rogers started and gave up one earned in 2.2 innings.  Kepler had a hit and an assist from right field.

 

Keep it up Eddie.  There is a job to be claimed on the Twins and if you're undeniably the best player, last year shouldn't matter.

Just checked the AFL Scoreboard and Salt River won their fourth straight game. Twins prospects led the way, SR only got four hits, two from Rosario, one from Buxton. Each scored a run in the 2-1 victory. Rosario stole his third base and is now 8-18 (2 hits in each of the four games he has played). Buxton is 5-18 in four games.

 

Jake Reed got the save, despite allowing two hits and a walk.

[USAFChief]

A few quick thoughts:

 

Buxton is really fast. He also has a pretty good arm.

 

I haven't been a big fan of Rosario...but based on three games anyway...he can hit. He hit the ball hard in almost every AB we saw.

[stringer bell]

A few quick thoughts:

 

Buxton is really fast. He also has a pretty good arm.

 

I haven't been a big fan of Rosario...but based on three games anyway...he can hit. He hit the ball hard in almost every AB we saw.

Concur, Chief. Thanks for the eyewitness report.

 

In Spring Training of 2013, TR told us that Buxton was the fastest guy ever in the organization.

[ashbury]

Jake Reed got the save, despite allowing two hits and a walk.

Jake certainly pitched himself into trouble in the bottom of the ninth in a one-run game.  In a different situation, a new reliever might have been brought in, but apparently in the AFL you simply relieve yourself on the mound.  It worked out. 

 

Of note that inning were two consecutive batters who appeared to get hit in the hand but were not awarded first base (which would have scored a run each).  I don't recall if they were swinging at the pitch, but the umpire was most definite in his ruling and Lance Parrish (manager) didn't argue either time as far as I recall.  After some internet browsing, I see that it's not as simple as "the hand is part of the bat," despite the old saying.  So I'd like to know a little more about  the umpire's reasoning.