Article: 2014 Post-Mortem: Oswaldo Arcia

[stringer bell]

Oswaldo Arcia finished 2014 playing in 103 games, mostly due to a wrist injury suffered early in the season. His statistics are similar to thos of his rookie season in 2013. This year, Arcia pounded 20 homers, but struck out 127 times in just 410 plate appearances. Arcia also hit .231 with a .300 OBP. The power is undeniable, but the combination of the large number of no-chance at-bats and below average defense has made Arcia a less than productive player.Arcia has been in the Twins' system for seven years. In his minor league career, Oswaldo had an OBP of .376 and a batting average of .314. His top home run season was 17 in 124 games, but home run power seems to be his primary asset as a major leaguer. I submit that his batting percentage and OBP have been disappointments. He seems to be very fond of hitting long home runs at the expense of being a total hitter. Much has been made of a mechanical flaw but the problem is exacerbated by trying to hit the ball 500 feet. Oswaldo is going to hit home runs if he gets at-bats. He needs to be a more well-rounded hitter to get regular at-bats, not Adam Dunn minus the walks.

 

Arcia hit below the Mendoza line against left-handed pitching, with a .574 OPS. The Twins used 2014 as a training/learning experience for him, despite his paltry numbers. If he continues to struggle against southpaws, it wouldn't surprise me that the new manager will limit his at-bats against lefties.

 

This year Arcia played exclusively in right field. He made more good plays than last year and displayed a strong arm. That is the good news. He continued to make some bad misplays and missed cutoff men and threw to the wrong base far too often. I continue to see enough for Arcia to be an average or better defender, but he has to focus and work on his defense as hard as he works on his swing.

 

Arcia has shown enough to have earned a lot of rope before he would be benched, platooned or demoted. He needs to make progress both at the plate and in the field to guarantee continued regular playing time in 2015 and beyond. I think he needs to have a much better two-strike plan. He is still only 23. Barring injury, Oswaldo Arcia will start 2015 as the Twins regular right fielder and will still be 23 years old. He is still a very raw player, often doing amazing and stupefying things in the same game. He has shown the ability to be an all-star hitter in the middle of a contending lineup and he can look like an 18-year-old in he Rookie League. 2015 should be a big season for Arcia. If he progresses, he'll probably be a cornerstone of a fast-improving franchise. If he stagnates, Twins fans will move on to look for someone else to be their power-hitting right fielder-- Adam Brett Walker anyone?

 

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[gmarais66]

The thing you fail to mention is that Brunansky was working extensively with Arcia, during the latter part of the season. In September, Arcia posted a line of .263/.330/.513...  Anyone watching him could see there was a significant change in his approach at the plate during the last six weeks of the season, compared to early in the season... If you're going to write about a topic you need to tell the whole story, not just a glossed-over overview of a situation... Based on what I saw towards the end of the season, I think 2015 could be a break-through season for Arcia...

[Mike Sixel]

I HATE the phrase post-mortem with a passion, and I am in IT, so I see it a lot.....can we find another phrase that isn't about death?

 

I don't think September tells us much, people claim that changes were made all the time, after a hot streak. No one says, "here is the change I just made" and then sees what happens.

 

He's young, they have no chance of making the playoffs next year w/o major changes, he should start in RF until they determine he isn't good enough and it matters if he's good enough, imo.

[diehardtwinsfan]

You can see a nice progression in his OPS the second half of the year with a > .700 OPS in July and a > .800 OPS in Aug/Sept. I'd say something changed. Hopefully it carries over.

[Thegrin]

Arcia seems to be head strong and coachable at the same time.   He is a visible presence in the dugout.  The first to cheer and the first to high-five.  He did change his hitting approach in the last 2 months and the result was a better average, less strikeouts and more home runs.  I look forward to seeing what he will do in 2015.

[gunnarthor]

I was never very high on him as a prospect but I was wrong.  He'll be a stud.  He clearly cares about hitting and smart enough to figure it out.  I think next year could be a really big year for him.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not sure I was clear, in my post.....I think he has a shot to be quite good. I don't think we know that he is yet, and he should play. I'm not convinced something changed, but if it did, and it worked, great. But the story that something changed is used a lot, so I am always skeptical.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Does anyone recall what the ceiling for Arcia was supposed to be while he was a prospect? Were they comparing him to guys like Carlos Lee, Nelson Cruz, Juan Gonzalez, etc. or was he expected to be more like a 20 Homers / 20 doubles kind of player?

 

If he continues to improve, I could see him reaching 25-30 HRs a year.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I don't remember comps, but potential middle of the order bat was something that was listed as a ceiling. That said, he was never considered a cant miss type though for what it is worth, so needing time to adjust to the majors is certainly reasonable.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Arcia is also the guy with Plouffe who hauls the Gatorade cooler out into the field after walk-offs

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I was at a game when he broke a bat over his knee Bo Jackson - style after a strike out. He definitely is an entertaining player, I hope he can start putting it all together in 2015.

[Willihammer]

Does anyone recall what the ceiling for Arcia was supposed to be while he was a prospect? Were they comparing him to guys like Carlos Lee, Nelson Cruz, Juan Gonzalez, etc. or was he expected to be more like a 20 Homers / 20 doubles kind of player?

 

If he continues to improve, I could see him reaching 25-30 HRs a year.

I remember Magglio being used as a ceiling. High batting average, good power. Arcia's minor league track record was that of a perennial .300 hitter. Funny how differently we view him now.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I bet he can get his average up towards .250 to .275 if he can curb that K-rate. His line drive rate went up from 20 to 25 % since his rookie year, but his K% was steady at 31%

[iTwins]

Arcia made adjustments and improvements to his swing as the season progressed - especially late in the year. His early season "hand drop" that Roy Smalley pointed out on FSN was almost eliminated (he still reverted from time to time) and his ability to identify and lay off of breaking pitches seemed to improve later in the year as well.

 

He's 23 years old, so there's absolutely no reason to bail on him yet. I wouldn't platoon him or bench him (if he slumps) in 2015. Let him ride out the lows and keep learning on the job. He has talent, and as evidenced by the late season improvement - the drive to make the best of that talent.

[stringer bell]

 

Arcia seems to be head strong and coachable at the same time.   He is a visible presence in the dugout.  The first to cheer and the first to high-five.  He did change his hitting approach in the last 2 months and the result was a better average, less strikeouts and more home runs.  I look forward to seeing what he will do in 2015.

I'm trying to stitch together these postseason looks at players (I'll scrap "post mortem") between long days at work and other activities. I had intended to mention Arcia's visibility in the dugout and his obvious enthusiasm, but it didn't make it into the blog entry. Also, my entry looks pretty pessimistic, but I didn't mean it that way.

 

As far as comps, I remember more than one mentioning Bobby Abreu as well as Ordoñez.

Edited October 3, 2014 by stringer bell

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Maybe a good "new ceiling" comp might be someone like Matt Holliday - a little dumpy in the outfield, but power near 30 homers a year and an average that can climb with some better plate discipline.

 

On BBREF, Hall of Famer Ralph Kiner was listed as a comp based on MLB performance through age 23. That might be pushing it a bit... Other names  - Dayan Viciedo, Dave Kingman, Chris Young, Travis Snider, Elijah Dukes, Adam Piatt, Brian Buchanon ... lots of range there, which is to be expected for a 23 year old.

 

If he ended up having Dave Kingman's career arc, that would be pretty darn good. Of course, it's still so early in his career, he can go in a lot of different ways.

[Eephus]

Does anyone recall what the ceiling for Arcia was supposed to be while he was a prospect? Were they comparing him to guys like Carlos Lee, Nelson Cruz, Juan Gonzalez, etc. or was he expected to be more like a 20 Homers / 20 doubles kind of player?

 

If he continues to improve, I could see him reaching 25-30 HRs a year.

Some times I picture a comparison to what people thought Jason Kubel's ceiling was with maybe a little more power, a little lower batting average and quite a few more strikeouts. Kubel raked in a balanced way in the minors, but with the rebuilt knee sort of became a .270 guy with some power. That's who I think of when I look at Arcia's minor league numbers.

[THE DFC]

"If he stagnates, Twins fans will move on to look for someone else to be their power-hitting right fielder-- Adam Brett Walker anyone?"

 

Really?  We're talking about this already?  Morneau, Hunter, Cuddyer, Gomez, Dozier all had their break-out season between ages 25-27 (full-season in Morneau's case).

 

Next year is not a big year for Arcia.  It's a prime learning and development year.  There should be zero reason to think of platooning him or anything silly.  He needs tons of at-bats, and there's no other way around it.  More importantly, he especially needs at-bats against lefties to even out those splits...not to hit the bench.  

 

Along the way, there are going to be lots of moments that aren't pretty, but this kid has already proven major MLB power, had an .800+ OPS in the 2nd half of the year and has had absurd success at all levels in the minors.  The idea that Adam Walker (maybe half the prospect of Arcia and only 5 months younger) or any other minor league prospect in the system outside of Buxton should challenge Arcia in the next 3 years is really difficult for me to even entertain. 

[Willihammer]

Arcia was tied with Jose Bautista for 3rd in ISO in the 2nd half behind only Stanton and Kemp. Still struck out over 30% of the time.

 

If he can improve the BB and K rate then you're talking about Justin Upton or Chris Carter as comps. I would call that a win for sure.

[Mike Sixel]

That would be sweet for sure.

[SwainZag]

He is still only 23 years old and has less than 800 career PA.  After his improved last couple months, I'm looking forward to see what he can with a full healthy season with regular AB's.

[lightfoot789]

I'm the biggest Walker fan out there and I'm not even talking Walker over Arcia.  Arcia is only 23 years old and has a helluva future.   I heard yesterday that Mike Trout led the AL in strikeouts and is still the favorite to win the MVP.  Trout also led the AL in RBI and hit loads of HRs.  With that being the case for Trout, why would anyone become pestimistic about Arcia.  He has the ability to maybe become not as great as the MVP, but damn sure good enough to be a big time player for the Twins.  So many bloggers want MVP talent or bust.  Arcia was a major factor in the Twins becoming one of the top scoring teams in baseball.  Let the 23 year old grow without so much concern.

[twinssouth]

Yea, I was at a Rays game last year when he lost the ball playing LF, almost hit him in the head coming down.  Then, next inning, took 3 giant rips, missed the ball a good foot, tried breaking the bat over his knee but couldn't.  He is entertaining.

 

Twins have got to get the outfield straightened out next year.  They need to sign or make a trade for a strong, well rounded LF.  I don't see anybody in the Minors ready yet, including Rosario.  As for Center, I don't know.  Do you keep Santana or get a FA?  Just don't see Buxton ready for couple years, hope I'm wrong. 

[Monkeypaws]

I like Oswaldo a lot - he is very fan-friendly, he as an elite tool in power, and he projects well given his minor league numbers.

 

Too often he was put in the role of the guy who has to do it, and as our lineup gets better, so will he.

 

Even the presence of Kennys Vargas improved his performance markedly, to the point he almost overtook Dozier for HR lead on the team.

 

23 years old, and some good learning experience and 34 HR MLB homers in his pocket. He is a total stud imo. 

 

BTW, he is 5 months older than Adam Brett Walker.

 

We are just scratching the surface with Oswaldo.

[Dantes929]

I'm not sure I was clear, in my post.....I think he has a shot to be quite good. I don't think we know that he is yet, and he should play. I'm not convinced something changed, but if it did, and it worked, great. But the story that something changed is used a lot, so I am always skeptical.

 

What I saw in the first half and a little beyond was a guy that was in love with the long ball to the exclusion of everything else.  Specifcally what I saw was a guy swinging too hard, stepping toward first base and trying to pull everything.   What I saw later in the year was a willingness to take a pitch every once in a while and a guy striding toward the pitcher with more balance.    I am the eternal optimist and never understand why a guy that hit .314 in the minors all of a sudden has a ceiling of .260 just because of a couple seasons of worse.  This is where a batting coach can be valuable in getting him to swing faster (NOT harder) and get closer to what he was doing in the minors.   Look  at the guy and look at the swing.   Power is not going to go away.   It appeared to me he started trying to hit the ball back up the middle and let his naturaly power swing take over later in the season instead of forcing it.   Always reminds me of a golf swing.   You can occasionally hit the ball a long way by swinging hard but you will do it a lot more often by swinging properly.   I think he is capable of swinging properly.. 

[nater79a]

The thing you fail to mention is that Brunansky was working extensively with Arcia, during the latter part of the season. In September, Arcia posted a line of .263/.330/.513...  Anyone watching him could see there was a significant change in his approach at the plate during the last six weeks of the season, compared to early in the season... If you're going to write about a topic you need to tell the whole story, not just a glossed-over overview of a situation... Based on what I saw towards the end of the season, I think 2015 could be a break-through season for Arcia...

 

Agree completely.  All of September I saw him going to the opposite field more than the first five months combined.  Hit lefties much better.  Bruno needs to get some props for his improvement, I believe.

[adorduan]

His defense drives me nuts. He has a strong arm, but it seems like he almost would go brain dead on what base to throw to sometimes and he missed the cut off man way to often for my liking.  These things should be second nature to him by now and they aren't.  Everyone talks about his bat, but he needs to be able to play decently in the field and he sure isn't there yet.

[glunn]

His defense drives me nuts. He has a strong arm, but it seems like he almost would go brain dead on what base to throw to sometimes and he missed the cut off man way to often for my liking.  These things should be second nature to him by now and they aren't.  Everyone talks about his bat, but he needs to be able to play decently in the field and he sure isn't there yet.

I would hope that he works on two things during the offseason -- fielding and hitting curveballs.

 

With enough practice, I believe that he could become a plus outfielder, but maybe he would play better in LF than RF.  I also believe that he needs to take a lot of live BP with pitchers who have decent curveballs.

[powrwrap]

I flip flop on my opinion of him. Undeniable power swing, undeniably high K rate. Swings at pitches out of the strike zone. Sucker for a good curve ball. Looks lost in the OF. Closes his eyes on plays, makes bad reads, throws to wrong base, misses cutoff guys.

 

Then I think...he's 23. And I cut him some slack.

[HitInAPinch]

I like Arcia a lot, but most of all I like what Tom Brunansky has done with him over the last half of the season.  2015 could be a breakout year, still at age 23.