Article: Terry Ryan: Still Employed

[Otto von Ballpark]

Are we playing a board game here? It sounds so easy to just get certain guys that are or were out there, like Abreau or Puig or anyother player. It's not because there are so many factors involved. And where is the proof that Ryan didn't go after some of these players. But we'll never know, will we, until he writes his memoirs.

 

There is obviously a giant dislike of TR and/or what he has NOT accomplished which is your justification to have him fired. Fine. The rest of us aren't there yet. But trying to convince us with 20/20 hindsight is well, IMHO, short-sighted.

I was responding to a poster asking for specifics.  Otherwise, I try to not to invoke specific players for fear of these kind of responses.

 

That said, there is zero evidence that TR pursued any of these options on the international market, and these guys weren't hiding under a rock.

 

And I actually like TR and would hate to fire him (although his own words about Gardenhire last year and this year suggest that fate should be considered).  Personally, I'd just like to "mandate" him to be more aggressive in pursuit of high-end talent, and if he's not up to it, get a front office partner/replacement who is.

[tobi0040]

Abreu only made $7 mil in 2014, although yes it is $11 mil AAV.  I think if we signed Abreu, we wouldn't have bothered with the Kendrys Morales experience, so that's another $7 mil subtracted.  That would take your payroll down to $90 mil or so, at least.

 

Kazmir the reclamation project was before 2013, not so much last winter (although I would not have minded him last winter).  Lose him for 2014 and you're down to $79 mil, if you really care about it.

 

But looking at potential 2014 wins is vastly under-rating how much better shape this team would be in.  In addition to Chen and possibly Kazmir (above-average LH SP on real-life playoff teams) still under contract for 2015, we'd have a superstar at 1B/DH for 5 more years and a MLB-ready, consensus top 25 OF prospect in Soler.  THAT'S a team I don't mind waiting for prospect reinforcements a little further down the line!

 

You could add a couple duds to that mix (Nolasco, Pelfrey, and/or Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez) and still be better off than where the Twins sit today, so your "flawless" qualifier doesn't really hold either.

 

So you handpicked Abreu, Soler, Kazmir, and Chen.  Clearly Abreu, Soler, and Chen were drastically under-estimated by every team in MLB.   I would argue, even the team that submitted the winning bid under-estimated how good these guys were going to be.  These are high bidder wins scenario, I assure you if the White Sox knew they had a guy with a .950 OPS they would have offered him more money than 6-70.   If the Cubs knew they had one of the top 3-5 prospects in baseball and could get him on a 9 year deal, they would have probably bid more than $30M total.

 

In addition, you are not signing Willngham, Pelfrey, or Nolasco.  How is this not near flawless hindsight?

[Otto von Ballpark]

So you handpicked Abreu, Soler, Kazmir, and Chen.  Clearly Abreu, Soler, and Chen were drastically under-estimated by every team in MLB.   I would argue, even the team that submitted the winning bid under-estimated how good these guys were going to be.  These are high bidder wins scenario, I assure you if the White Sox knew they had a guy with a .950 OPS they would have offered him more money than 6-70.   If the Cubs knew they had one of the top 3-5 prospects in baseball and could get him on a 9 year deal, they would have probably bid more than $30M total.

 

In addition, you are not signing Willngham, Pelfrey, or Nolasco.  How is this not near flawless hindsight?

YOU are the one who picked Abreu, Soler, Kazmir, and Chen.  My post listed ALL of the big international signings of the "new TR" era and simply said the Twins would be in much better shape if they had taken some part in that market.

 

And YOU are the one who started talking specific salaries and payroll.  Add $20 million to the contracts of those players, and throw in a dud like Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez.  I don't care.  That's still a better Twins team today, going into 2015, and hardly one that would be facing any crippling payroll issues on the horizon.

[Otto von Ballpark]

In addition, you are not signing Willngham, Pelfrey, or Nolasco.  How is this not near flawless hindsight?

I don't care about flawlessness.  Losing Willingham would actually hurt the Twins on the field somewhat (well, maybe not ON the field... at the plate, anyway ).  Sign Pelfrey too, I don't care.  Just give me SOME activity on the international market, with an eye toward long-term high-end talent acquisition.

 

Here's another way to look at it, which might better satisfy the shifting goalposts of your original challenge: in 2011, let TR take over but forbid any new domestic spending (greater than $1-2 mil or whatever) on players 30 and over.  Mandate him to spend the same amount (~$130 mil over 3 years) instead on the international market.

 

The Twins would undoubtedly be better off for it today, even if they overbid for a guy or two from that group, and in addition got one of the duds (although there haven't been many expensive ones).

 

I don't know if it's a fireable offense quite yet, but if I was ownership, I certainly would be questioning TR's strategy of recent years.

 

EDIT TO ADD: Of course, as owner, I would have also started out the rebuild with the directive "what can we do better than our rebuild in the 1990s, other than draft better?"

Edited October 9, 2014 by spycake

[tobi0040]

YOU are the one who picked Abreu, Soler, Kazmir, and Chen.  My post listed ALL of the big international signings of the "new TR" era and simply said the Twins would be in much better shape if they had taken some part in that market.

 

And YOU are the one who started talking specific salaries and payroll.  Add $20 million to the contracts of those players, and throw in a dud like Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez.  I don't care.  That's still a better Twins team today, going into 2015, and hardly one that would be facing any crippling payroll issues on the horizon.

 

I forgot Puig and Cespedes, which by the way would have been further cherry picking the signings that worked out and still not made us a contender.  Payroll around $100M.

Edited October 9, 2014 by tobi0040

[Otto von Ballpark]

I assure you if the White Sox knew they had a guy with a .950 OPS they would have offered him more money than 6-70.   If the Cubs knew they had one of the top 3-5 prospects in baseball and could get him on a 9 year deal, they would have probably bid more than $30M total.

Quibble with the dollars all you want, but those are the kind of guys we should have been targeting as far back as 2011 if not earlier.

 

They had the potential to be complete duds, but they also had the potential to be top prospects and superstars.  We have not added anyone with that kind of potential recently outside the draft and the spending-capped international guys.

 

And they weren't hiding playing stickball in some remote island alleyway.  These guys were well known when it came time for MLB to bid on them, pretty much just requiring cash -- far less than domestic FAs but with a pretty darn good track record.

[tobi0040]

Quibble with the dollars all you want, but those are the kind of guys we should have been targeting as far back as 2011 if not earlier.

 

They had the potential to be complete duds, but they also had the potential to be top prospects and superstars.  We have not added anyone with that kind of potential recently outside the draft and the spending-capped international guys.

 

And they weren't hiding playing stickball in some remote island alleyway.  These guys were well known when it came time for MLB to bid on them, pretty much just requiring cash -- far less than domestic FAs but with a pretty darn good track record.

 

I will call Sano and Soler a wash.  I know Sano was in 2009 or whatever, but not many teams, especially non large market teams dump $30M on a 22 year old or even $4M on a 16 year old every year.

 

We can all pat the White Sox on the back, but what kind of look do teams have on Cuban players before dropping $70M on them?  They get a workout maybe?  He hits some BP.  Then they have a handful of games in international competition.  Then stats against Cubans.  Isn't that about what they have to go on?  I could be wrong here.

[brvama]

Spycake, I wasn't responding to your post, but in general with some previous posts about how easy some think it is to grab so & so.

 

Generally, I agree that TR has more work to do in the FA market, especially the international one. He does seem a bit tentative with those FA. Did Nishi sour them? Any FA signing is a risk. You are basically paying on the past performance and gambling that there is a reasonable chance that will continue. Bad things can happen.

 

Still, I feel like the Twins (TR) still haven't totally grasped the new revenue flow available to them. Last year looks like a start, but more must be done. It really comes down to a balanced approach - bringing in the young studs, inside and outside the organization; while finding upgrades in some areas with veteran FA's. There are limits on FA contracts though, both in years and $'s.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I will call Sano and Soler a wash.  I know Sano was in 2009 or whatever, but not many teams, especially non large market teams dump $30M on a 22 year old or even $4M on a 16 year old every year.

 

We can all pat the White Sox on the back, but what kind of look do teams have on Cuban players before dropping $70M on them?  They get a workout maybe?  He hits some BP.  Then they have a handful of games in international competition.  Then stats against Cubans.  Isn't that about what they have to go on?  I could be wrong here.

A wash?  What does that even mean?  Because we signed Sano, we didn't have to bother pursuing Soler?  Besides the signings themselves happening 3 years apart, Sano was an amateur shortstop who just turned 16.  Soler was a 20 year old professional outfielder.  I'm not seeing how one precludes the other at all.

 

No doubt there is risk in any signing, but Cuban players have been pretty incredible (and remarkably reliable) investments.  I don't there's been a recent bust of more than $10-14 million total guarantee (pending results of the most recent signs, of course).  That's Pelfrey money.  The recent big ticket guys have more or less become superstars, with Cespedes' 3.5 WAR per 150 games bringing up the tail end, all signing for roughly Nolasco money (or less, by AAV).

[drjim]

That 2013-2014 offseason number isn't bad, but it includes the re-sign of Pelfrey. And as I've mentioned, a likely overpay/desperation sign in Nolasco.

 

By my count, we guaranteed $33.75 mil to new FA in 2011-2012, although covering 6 season at an average age of 34.7. And 2012-2013, we only guaranteed $14 mil for 3 total seasons of Correia and Pelfrey.

 

But if the domestic FA market hasn't been strong -- why hasn't TR invested internationally when he could? That's even more damning for a rebuilding team on a modest budget. See my post above for specifics.

Nolasco certainly was an overpay. As was Jimenez and probably Garza too. Hard to sign any free agent pitcher to a good contract.

 

And he certainly was out of desperation - the overall crappiness of Twins pitching over the past several years has been well documented. If the Twins weren't desperate no chance they sign a mid-rotation guy (if you are generous) to a 4 year deal.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Nolasco certainly was an overpay. As was Jimenez and probably Garza too. Hard to sign any free agent pitcher to a good contract.

 

And he certainly was out of desperation - the overall crappiness of Twins pitching over the past several years has been well documented. If the Twins weren't desperate no chance they sign a mid-rotation guy (if you are generous) to a 4 year deal.

Yeah, I don't actually mind "overpay" if it means you get a guy you want.  Probably just meant more desperation in this case, like we let our pitching get so bad we couldn't afford to wait out the market anymore.

 

I don't like to examine the pitching and hitting sides independently, though -- while both the domestic and international pitching markets have been relatively thin/weak lately, if we had been able to snag an impact bat internationally, it could have A) helped compensate for some of our poor pitching, and given us another asset to use directly or indirectly (i.e. allowed us to trade a prospect) to acquire pitching help.

[tobi0040]

A wash?  What does that even mean?  Because we signed Sano, we didn't have to bother pursuing Soler?  Besides the signings themselves happening 3 years apart, Sano was an amateur shortstop who just turned 16.  Soler was a 20 year old professional outfielder.  I'm not seeing how one precludes the other at all.

 

No doubt there is risk in any signing, but Cuban players have been pretty incredible (and remarkably reliable) investments.  I don't there's been a recent bust of more than $10-14 million total guarantee (pending results of the most recent signs, of course).  That's Pelfrey money.  The recent big ticket guys have more or less become superstars, with Cespedes' 3.5 WAR per 150 games bringing up the tail end, all signing for roughly Nolasco money (or less, by AAV).

 

If you go back to 2009, the Twins take Sano.  Give the Cubs Soler.  Give the White Sox Abreu.  The Dodgers have done really well obviously with Puig and Ryu.  The A's took Cespedes.   The Twins getting Sano is still going to push them into the top 10 in the league for international signings.  So this we haven't done anything meme or we should have gotten all the guys is not something that I buy into.

[Mike Sixel]

Um, those players weren't available in 2009. I don't get your argument at all. Having Sano did not mean "thou shalt not sign Soler or Abreu".

[tobi0040]

Um, those players weren't available in 2009. I don't get your argument at all. Having Sano did not mean "thou shalt not sign Soler or Abreu".

 

Of all the internatonal signings since 2009 by team, how many would you trade for Miguel Sano?  I bet you don't get to 5.  If we are ahead of 25 teams and behind 5, maybe the expectations are a tad high.

 

I would rather have Sano than Puig/Ryu.  Rather have Sano than Cespedes. Sano over Chen.

Edited October 10, 2014 by tobi0040

[Mike Sixel]

So? I'd rather have Sano than about 1000000 baseball players. No place does signing Sano stop you from later acquiring another player. I still don't understand what you are arguing.

[tobi0040]

So? I'd rather have Sano than about 1000000 baseball players. No place does signing Sano stop you from later acquiring another player. I still don't understand what you are arguing.

 

What are you arguing?  We should have signed every good international free agent? 

 

Sure, we could have signed Sano and someone else.  But your stance is basically that we have not done enough on the international front, when if you take a step back and rate the Twins since 2009 you would probably rate them in the top 5.  No?    Seems silly to me. 

[Mike Sixel]

No, I have never argued that. I have argued that signing one or more Cubans the last few years, when they were undervalued, would have been a good idea. And, I argued that before they were signed, not after. But NO PLACE has anyone said they should sign EVERY Cuban, or EVERY FA or any such straw man.

 

But this conversation started above.....when you basically said that since they had Sano, they should, I'm not sure what you are arguing......

[tobi0040]

No, I have never argued that. I have argued that signing one or more Cubans the last few years, when they were undervalued, would have been a good idea. And, I argued that before they were signed, not after. But NO PLACE has anyone said they should sign EVERY Cuban, or EVERY FA or any such straw man.

 

But this conversation started above.....when you basically said that since they had Sano, they should, I'm not sure what you are arguing......

 

Where would you rank the Twins since 2009 on their international signings?  In other words, if you could trade Sano for all of the international signings a team made, how many would you trade with?

 

My gut says the Twins are top 3, or top 5 at least.  Would you agree?  If you agree we are top 3 or top 5, is this really the area we should be criticizing? 

 

I think the Twins deserve blame for many things, but I am not sure this is one of them. With hindsight, yeah, we should have signed Abreu.  You got me.  But lets focus on an areas where we are at least out of the top 10.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't care where they rank. That's not what I'm talking about. I care that they had money, and did not spend it. I don't care, much, that A ball is awesome. I care that the MLB team stinks. And, had they done better, they would be better. 

 

It isn't hindsight, I posted it over and over on this site that they should sign Abreu. 

 

And yes, just because you are good or great at something does not mean you are not perfect at it, there is always room for improvement.

[tobi0040]

I don't care where they rank. That's not what I'm talking about. I care that they had money, and did not spend it. I don't care, much, that A ball is awesome. I care that the MLB team stinks. And, had they done better, they would be better. 

 

It isn't hindsight, I posted it over and over on this site that they should sign Abreu. 

 

And yes, just because you are good or great at something does not mean you are not perfect at it, there is always room for improvement.

 

If we want to criticize the Twins, I just think we should focus on the areas of weakness and look to improve them.

 

We took Buxton and Berrios in the 2012 draft.  I am OK with that. I am not going to sift through some guy in the 3rd round and say we should have taken him over Bard.

 

My criticism will focus on analytics and improving our rotation through free agency.

Edited October 10, 2014 by tobi0040

[Otto von Ballpark]

Where would you rank the Twins since 2009 on their international signings?  In other words, if you could trade Sano for all of the international signings a team made, how many would you trade with?

 

My gut says the Twins are top 3, or top 5 at least.  Would you agree?  If you agree we are top 3 or top 5, is this really the area we should be criticizing? 

Interesting take, thanks for explaining.

 

First of all, starting this in 2009 seems like a very selective endpoint.

 

Secondly, I don't know if we rank anywhere near that high.  There's Sano, then... Jorge Polanco?  Lewis Thorpe?  We've gotten zero MLB production from international players signed since 2009, and Sano is our only post-2009 international signee to even make BA's Top 100 prospect lists (hopefully that will change for 2015?).

 

Just glancing at Rookie of the Year voting, 7 post-2009 international signees have already received RoY votes, a couple more are guaranteed to do so this winter, and another 3 who didn't get RoY votes got MVP votes instead.  And that's not even counting guys like Soler, Franco, etc. who are closer to Sano's development track.  Not saying I'd trade Sano for all of those guys, but it does highlight how Sano's production is still very much speculative.

[tobi0040]

Interesting take, thanks for explaining.

 

First of all, starting this in 2009 seems like a very selective endpoint.

 

Secondly, I don't know if we rank anywhere near that high.  There's Sano, then... Jorge Polanco?  Lewis Thorpe?  We've gotten zero MLB production from international players signed since 2009, and Sano is our only post-2009 international signee to even make BA's Top 100 prospect lists (hopefully that will change for 2015?).

 

Just glancing at Rookie of the Year voting, 7 post-2009 international signees have already received RoY votes, a couple more are guaranteed to do so this winter, and another 3 who didn't get RoY votes got MVP votes instead.  And that's not even counting guys like Soler, Franco, etc. who are closer to Sano's development track.  Not saying I'd trade Sano for all of those guys, but it does highlight how Sano's production is still very much speculative.

 

While Sano's production is speculative, I offered up the ability to trade him and rank our system based on him right now.

 

I think the lack of MLB production since 2009 goes to show that our investments have been primarily in minor leaguers. But overall if we want to throw in Arcia, Liriano, the Aussies, etc. we have done okay.  Of the 10 guys on BA's list of Twins prospects, only four have come from America if you view PR as still an international location from a scouting perspective.

 

TOP 10 PROSPECTS

1. Byron Buxton, of 

2. Miguel Sano, 3b

3. Alex Meyer, rhp

4. Kohl Stewart, rhp

5. J.O. Berrios, rhp 

6. Eddie Rosario, 2b/of

7. Lewis Thorpe, lhp

8. Trevor May, rhp

9. Danny Santana, ss/2b

10. Jorge Polanco, ss/2b

[Mike Sixel]

Basically, if I understand your argument, we can't criticize the Twins for not signing MLB Cuban free agents because the farm system is really good.

 

I don't agree, and we will never agree, so we should probably stop discussing it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

If we want to criticize the Twins, I just think we should focus on the areas of weakness and look to improve them.

 

We took Buxton and Berrios in the 2012 draft.  I am OK with that. I am not going to sift through some guy in the 3rd round and say we should have taken him over Bard.

 

My criticism will focus on analytics and improving our rotation through free agency.

I sorta get what you're saying, but I can't agree.

 

Signing Miguel Sano for $3.15 million in 2009 was great, and a welcome change from the Twins international efforts pre-2009, but it's really a different ballgame than targeting major Cuban/Asian talent.  (Actually, on that note -- the Nishioka signing certainly drags down the Twins 2009-2014 international ranking, no?)

 

The Twins, as a rebuilding club shedding salary obligations, with a depleted farm system and new ballpark resources, had a clear opportunity to get potentially elite talent for mid-tier domestic FA prices.  By all accounts, they chose not to participate (or at least not bid seriously).  I don't see why they don't deserve some criticism for that, especially when Cuban/Asian talents are still being signed, and the most recent results still suggest solid value in them.

[tobi0040]

Basically, if I understand your argument, we can't criticize the Twins for not signing MLB Cuban free agents because the farm system is really good.

 

I don't agree, and we will never agree, so we should probably stop discussing it.

 

Here is my argument, If I owned a company that was 5th in an area and 28th in another, I would focus on the area where we are 28th as a source of improvement.  From a scouting perspective, if we are top 5 I would look to keep that edge versus improve upon it and focus time and money to the problem.

 

The Twins are where we are because we have not drafted, developed, or signed good enough starting pitchers.  So focusing on the international market, specifically Cuba where almost all of the guys are outfielders is not really my focus.

[Mike Sixel]

How is the MLB OF looking these last few years? You can do more than 1 thing as a company with the resources the Twins have.

[USAFChief]

Here is my argument, If I owned a company that was 5th in an area and 28th in another, I would focus on the area where we are 28th as a source of improvement. From a scouting perspective, if we are top 5 I would look to keep that edge versus improve upon it and focus time and money to the problem.

 

The Twins are where we are because we have not drafted, developed, or signed good enough starting pitchers. So focusing on the international market, specifically Cuba where almost all of the guys are outfielders is not really my focus.

if I owned that company, I'd focus some attention on the managers who are telling me their division Is "top 5 in the industry" when they keep posting red numbers year after year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

While Sano's production is speculative, I offered up the ability to trade him and rank our system based on him right now.

 

I think the lack of MLB production since 2009 goes to show that our investments have been primarily in minor leaguers. But overall if we want to throw in Arcia, Liriano, the Aussies, etc. we have done okay.  Of the 10 guys on BA's list of Twins prospects, only four have come from America if you view PR as still an international location from a scouting perspective.

 

TOP 10 PROSPECTS

1. Byron Buxton, of 

2. Miguel Sano, 3b

3. Alex Meyer, rhp

4. Kohl Stewart, rhp

5. J.O. Berrios, rhp 

6. Eddie Rosario, 2b/of

7. Lewis Thorpe, lhp

8. Trevor May, rhp

9. Danny Santana, ss/2b

10. Jorge Polanco, ss/2b

You're basically falling back on, "I like our top 10 prospects."  Which is great, but it has nothing to do with: why did the rebuilding Twins participate in domestic free agency for modest returns, when they could have easily participated in international free agency for potentially elite players at similar prices?

 

This whole thing started when you asked, what could TR have done differently so far in his second tenure that would have made the Twins better and competitive faster?  "Seriously bid on the major international free agent talent instead of modest domestic free agents" is, I think, a valid answer to that question, and one that does not require any hindsight benefit (the bidding and consensus opinions suggest these international players had great long-term potential, which was of far greater benefit to the 2012-2014 Twins than safe short-term mediocrity).

[tobi0040]

You're basically falling back on, "I like our top 10 prospects."  Which is great, but it has nothing to do with: why did the rebuilding Twins participate in domestic free agency for modest returns, when they could have easily participated in international free agency for potentially elite players at similar prices?

 

This whole thing started when you asked, what could TR have done differently so far in his second tenure that would have made the Twins better and competitive faster?  "Seriously bid on the major international free agent talent instead of modest domestic free agents" is, I think, a valid answer to that question, and one that does not require any hindsight benefit (the bidding and consensus opinions suggest these international players had great long-term potential, which was of far greater benefit to the 2012-2014 Twins than safe short-term mediocrity).

 

Lets talk about his Cuban bonanza for a second. 

 

Abreu was clearly a great signing.  Nobody can argue that. I would argue that Puig and Cespedes had a nice drop off in production after year one.  Which has happened a ton when unknown players come into the league (Nomo anyone). 

 

Puig, OPS of .920 and .860.  Hard to argue that does not look good right now.  Here were opinions of the scouts and teams when he was signed.  Please read some of the quotes.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/international-affairs/2012/2613621.html

 

Cespedes is wildly over-rated. After his first year and some tape on him existed, he has had an OPS of .737 and .750.  We could platoon Hicks .750 against lefties and Arcia, .850 OPS against righties and vastly exceed that production and save about $9M.

 

But again these guys are not starting pitchers.  Which is the actual problem. 

 

So two of the 30 teams signed one player each, in an area of strength for our club (international scouting).  I am not going to get too riled up about it.

Edited October 10, 2014 by tobi0040

[Otto von Ballpark]

Here is my argument, If I owned a company that was 5th in an area and 28th in another, I would focus on the area where we are 28th as a source of improvement.  From a scouting perspective, if we are top 5 I would look to keep that edge versus improve upon it and focus time and money to the problem.

 

The Twins are where we are because we have not drafted, developed, or signed good enough starting pitchers.  So focusing on the international market, specifically Cuba where almost all of the guys are outfielders is not really my focus.

The Twins have never been 5th in international signings and development, outside of perhaps some window centered on Sano and 2009.

 

And when TR took over the team in 2011, they certainly were not 5th by any measure of overall talent acquisition.

 

That was the whole premise of this discussion -- what could TR have done differently, beginning in the fall of 2011, to speed up the rebuild and return to contention?

 

And the fact that they have a top-5 minor league system today is fantastic, but given the immense advantage of 3 consecutive top 5 draft picks and draft/spending caps, it's not at all clear they have been top-5 in talent acquisition adjusted for opportunity since 2011 either.