Article: Terry Ryan: Still Employed

[chopper0080]

I think when most team's decide they are going to rebuild, it isn't coming off a division title.  I will say there are probably very little people who will point to the off season after 2010 and say.....well great run guys, let's rebuild this thing.  The 2011 team had a $112.7M payroll.  I could go into how everyone regressed and only 3 regulars played in 100+ games or how Mauer and Morneau both missed more than half the season or how the bad Liriano showed up and Pavano aged quickly.  Nishi was a bust.  Nathan wasn't the same coming off of injury and Baker would only start 21 games.  2011 was a complete disaster in every way.  So much hope...turned to rubble.

 

High payroll, terrible results, a bad farm club.  Not a great starting point 2012 going forward.

 

You cite they have signed 1 solid free agent.  How about Josh Willingham? Kurt Susuki?  Ricky Nolasco?

 

What players have they lost in the last 3 seasons for nothing?  You can go back to Gomez and Hardy, everyone will agree those were mistakes, everyone will admit it.

 

Every player you listed was a 2013 player.  Instead of adding them they added Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolasco and Kurt Susuki.  2 of 3 of those were excellent signings.  Was it a mistake not to grab an OF? Probably.

 

Comparing waiting for prospects to bloom as "magic beans into a beanstalk" is pretty laughable.  I think the fact that people think the position they were in after the 2011 season should be some magical turn around in 1-2 seasons back into a contender is funny to me.  They put themselves into that position, but a lot things along they way didn't bounce their way for us to get to this point.

 

I think when most team's decide they are going to rebuild, it isn't coming off a division title.  I will say there are probably very little people who will point to the off season after 2010 and say.....well great run guys, let's rebuild this thing.  The 2011 team had a $112.7M payroll.  I could go into how everyone regressed and only 3 regulars played in 100+ games or how Mauer and Morneau both missed more than half the season or how the bad Liriano showed up and Pavano aged quickly.  Nishi was a bust.  Nathan wasn't the same coming off of injury and Baker would only start 21 games.  2011 was a complete disaster in every way.  So much hope...turned to rubble.

 

High payroll, terrible results, a bad farm club.  Not a great starting point 2012 going forward.

 

You cite they have signed 1 solid free agent.  How about Josh Willingham? Kurt Susuki?  Ricky Nolasco?

 

What players have they lost in the last 3 seasons for nothing?  You can go back to Gomez and Hardy, everyone will agree those were mistakes, everyone will admit it.

 

Every player you listed was a 2013 player.  Instead of adding them they added Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolasco and Kurt Susuki.  2 of 3 of those were excellent signings.  Was it a mistake not to grab an OF? Probably.

 

Comparing waiting for prospects to bloom as "magic beans into a beanstalk" is pretty laughable.  I think the fact that people think the position they were in after the 2011 season should be some magical turn around in 1-2 seasons back into a contender is funny to me.  They put themselves into that position, but a lot things along they way didn't bounce their way for us to get to this point.

Are we really touting Josh Willingham as a quality free agent addition?  If so, then we failed by not trading him when he had value.  You can't have it both ways.

 

Ricky Nolasco looks great so far...

 

Kurt Suzuki...again, if he is a quality player, we failed by not getting something for him.

 

Again, we have have made one quality FA addition in 4 years.

 

In terms of prospects and magic beans...where is Liam Hendricks?  Aaron Hicks?  Alex Wimmers?  Facts are most of these players will not live up to their projections.  Some will surprise, but trying to base a plan in terms of winning and competing on the magic year where every star aligns is a fairy tale.  It is waiting for those bag of magic beans to sprout.  Injuries....Suspensions...Regression...Failure to adapt...all of these are pitfalls for prospects.  Sure, some come with less risk than others, but you still can't force the process to develop in the form of a plan.  It just doesn't work that way.

[chopper0080]

We had an $85M payroll and won 70 games.

 

Here is the relevant data on the guys you listed:

 

Cruz                 4.7 WAR    $14M

Vargas             2.4 WAR     $9M

Kazmir              1.7 WAR    $11M

Drew                  -.3 WAR    $10M

Ervin                   1.2 WAR   $14M

Napoli                 3.2 WAR    $16M

 

Terry Ryan could have NOT signed Pelfrey and Nolasco, payroll would have been $68M.  Then signed every one of these guys.    We would have won 83 games and had a payroll of $142M. Sometimes folding is the right move.  Has it been a long frustrating four years?  Yes....but we were that far away.

 

As painful as this has been, I would rather have 70 wins with a payroll starting in the 60-70M range, some wiggle room to add and young players playing than an 83-81 team with a payroll at 142M, young guys blocked all over the place, way over our cap and dialing it down.

Why?  What good does it do anyone if the payroll this season is 100 mil vs 70 mil?  Maybe by adding a quality starter last year, we don't spend on Nolasco this year.  And since when is having too much talent a problem?  Why can't the team trade a player when a minor leaguer forces his way up?  If you can't trade the player then just cut him.

 

Again, I'm not advocating going on a spending spree.  Investing in 30+ year olds is a poor move.  However, trading several prospects for young, proven MLB players is a smart move.  Adding one or two quality pieces every offseason is a smart move.  Basing your plan to compete entirely on the uncertainty of prospects making it to the pros and becoming All Stars is almost certain to fail.  There are too many variables along the way.  After four years to rebuild this team, Ryan doesn't have us significantly closer to competing other than players at AA ball rather than A ball.  If you guys are seriously preaching this to be success, I am curious of your definition of failure.

[Kwak]

I think the bolded part is the heart of this debate. You make it seem like a team doesn't need a few years to rebuild. Are you sure? Can you think of teams that drop as much as the Twins in 2011 and come right back to sustained competitiveness? That is an assertion that seems to fly in the face of history of the past 20 years. Teams with significantly higher payrolls than the Twins might be able to shorten the cycle or cover up mistakes, but middle market teams will generally go in cycles. Some pain now for hopefully sustained success in the future. Throwing money at the issue might result in an emotionally satisfying more wins in the short term, but no more guarantee of success in the short term and certainly the long term.

The 2003 Tigers were atrocious--43 wins or something like that.  2006 they were in the World Series.

[Major League Ready]

A couple interesting points regarding the 2006 Tigers.

• They finished second in the division to the Twins managed by RG
• They did not have the ace many insist we must have.  They had 4 solid starters with an ERA between 3.63 and 4.08
• Their free agent acquisition that put them over the top was Kenny Rogers who was 41 y/o on a 2 year contract.  He gave them 195 innins and went 17-8.
• The other most significant addition to the team was a rookie named Verlander.
• Bonderman who had been poor in his first 3 seasons gave them 214 innings at 4.08.  In other words, that improvement came from within.
• Robertson gave them 208 innings at 3.85.  He was pretty bad in 2005 and went 7-16 with a 4.48 ERA.  His

The 2006 Tigers are a very poor example in terms of proving what many suggest we must do.  They did it by acquiring a mid level FA for 2 years, a rookie performing well, and the two Sps that remained from 2005 improving substantially.

[tobi0040]

Why?  What good does it do anyone if the payroll this season is 100 mil vs 70 mil?  Maybe by adding a quality starter last year, we don't spend on Nolasco this year.  And since when is having too much talent a problem?  Why can't the team trade a player when a minor leaguer forces his way up?  If you can't trade the player then just cut him.

 

Again, I'm not advocating going on a spending spree.  Investing in 30+ year olds is a poor move.  However, trading several prospects for young, proven MLB players is a smart move.  Adding one or two quality pieces every offseason is a smart move.  Basing your plan to compete entirely on the uncertainty of prospects making it to the pros and becoming All Stars is almost certain to fail.  There are too many variables along the way.  After four years to rebuild this team, Ryan doesn't have us significantly closer to competing other than players at AA ball rather than A ball.  If you guys are seriously preaching this to be success, I am curious of your definition of failure.

 

My goal is to be in contention for the world series. I just outlined for you that we could take our current team and sign everyone of the guys you advocated for, payroll would be $30M more than it will ever be, and we are basically a .500 team.  So for me, now is not the time to go all in.  

 

What we need is cost controlled young players to come up and produce.  If two years from now, we have this type of production from these guys a few vets added to the mix and we could easily be a playoff team, especially given where the Tigers will be at payroll and age-wise:

 

Buxton                         .270, 15 HR, 50 SB, great defense in CF

Sano                           .260, 30 HR, 80 BB

Meyer, Berrios, May    180-200 IP each, 3.50-3.80 ERA  (Or just two of the three)

Edited October 8, 2014 by tobi0040

[chopper0080]

My goal is to be in contention for the world series. I just outlined for you that we could take our current team and sign everyone of the guys you advocated for, payroll would be $30M more than it will ever be, and we are basically a .500 team.  So for me, now is not the time to go all in.  

 

What we need is cost controlled young players to come up and produce.  If two years from now, we have this type of production from these guys a few vets added to the mix and we could easily be a playoff team, especially given where the Tigers will be at payroll and age-wise:

 

Buxton                         .270, 15 HR, 50 SB, great defense in CF

Sano                           .260, 30 HR, 80 BB

Meyer, Berrios, May    180-200 IP each, 3.50-3.80 ERA  (Or just two of the three)

 

First, I wasn't advocating for all of those players.  I was making the statement that there are lower-dollar pieces to be added every year in free agency.  We have added one in four years.  That is a fail in terms of improving the roster.

 

Second, I'm sorry but "IF" and "TWO YEARS" are played out notions after four 90 loss seasons. 

 

Once again, I'm not arguing that the Twins are not 2 years away.  I'm stating that because we are two years away after four 90 loss seasons, Terry Ryan has failed.  A six year rebuilding plan that hinges on the emergence of 6 or 7 prospects is ridiculous.  I'm sorry for those of you who can't see that.

[tobi0040]

First, I wasn't advocating for all of those players.  I was making the statement that there are lower-dollar pieces to be added every year in free agency.  We have added one in four years.  That is a fail in terms of improving the roster.

 

Second, I'm sorry but "IF" and "TWO YEARS" are played out notions after four 90 loss seasons. 

 

Once again, I'm not arguing that the Twins are not 2 years away.  I'm stating that because we are two years away after four 90 loss seasons, Terry Ryan has failed.  A six year rebuilding plan that hinges on the emergence of 6 or 7 prospects is ridiculous.  I'm sorry for those of you who can't see that.

 

It is March 2012.  Coming off a 65 win team.  Your ownership group has given you no budget for free agent acqusitions and wants you to rebuild.  You have the #2 pick in the upcoming draft. 

 

Here are your top minor leaguers, according to BA.  The number one and three guys are 19.  The #2 guy is wildly overrated.  The number 4 guy is coming off a .720 OPS year in high A.    #5 is 20.     The only real prospect of a pitcher had Tommy John 3 months earlier.

 

1. Miguel Sano, 3b/ss

2. Joe Benson, of

3. Eddie Rosario, 2b/of

4. Aaron Hicks, of

5. Oswaldo Arcia, of

6. Levi Michael, ss/2b

7. Liam Hendriks, rhp

8. Kyle Gibson, rhp

9. Chris Parmelee, of/1b

10. Brian Dozier, ss/2b

 

What is your plan to get this team to .500 with a realistic chance upon improving that to contention in four years?  You even get the benefit of hindsight. 

 

I just don't see a path.

Edited October 8, 2014 by tobi0040

[Mike Sixel]

Well, it now looks like 5 or 6 years. ......because apparently it won't be next year. If they actually try at some point, rather than wait.

[SwainZag]

Are we really touting Josh Willingham as a quality free agent addition?  If so, then we failed by not trading him when he had value.  You can't have it both ways.

 

Ricky Nolasco looks great so far...

 

Kurt Suzuki...again, if he is a quality player, we failed by not getting something for him.

 

Again, we have have made one quality FA addition in 4 years.

 

In terms of prospects and magic beans...where is Liam Hendricks?  Aaron Hicks?  Alex Wimmers?  Facts are most of these players will not live up to their projections.  Some will surprise, but trying to base a plan in terms of winning and competing on the magic year where every star aligns is a fairy tale.  It is waiting for those bag of magic beans to sprout.  Injuries....Suspensions...Regression...Failure to adapt...all of these are pitfalls for prospects.  Sure, some come with less risk than others, but you still can't force the process to develop in the form of a plan.  It just doesn't work that way.

 

Willingham came in and put up a 3.2 WAR and an OPS+ of 143.  He was an excellent signing for the 2012 team.  He probably should have been traded and not extended, but that doesn't stop the fact that he was a quality FA signing and he did produce.

 

Ricky is 1/4 of the way through his 4 year deal.  You can't clamor for the Twins to spend money, sign an SP to a 4 year, $48 million dollar deal....and then berate them when he has the worse season of his career.  That's the risk you take when signing free agents.

 

Kurt Suzuki, a free agent signing.  A quality free agent signing.  2.2 WAR and a fairly team friendly extension.  You can't take that away from the team because they didn't trade him.  He is still a quality free agent signing.  

 

Teams that have as many holes as the Twins do don't go out and signing big name free agents every year.  It just doesn't work that way.  

 

Hendricks and Wimmers where never anywhere close to be as highly touted as May and Meyer alone.  That doesn't include Berrios or a half a dozen other prospects in the Twins system.  They are no good comparisons.  I'll give you Aaron Hicks, even though I think the Twins screwed up big time with him trying to count on him when he wasn't even close to be ready for the majors.

 

Of course not all prospects will work out, but calling them all just magic beans isn't correct either.  Your statement makes it sound like 1 in every 1000 highly rated prospect works out.  I would argue that Top 100 prospects end up working out a higher percentage than paying older veterans to 4-5 year deals.  Just like you can't "wait for the fairy tale" of prospects maturing, you just can't throw money at free agents and just expect a great team.  You used an example yourself: Ricky Nolasco.

[drjim]

It is March 2012.  Coming off a 65 win team.  Your ownership group has given you no budget for free agent acqusitions and wants you to rebuild.  You have the #2 pick in the upcoming draft. 

 

Here are your top minor leaguers, according to BA.  The number one and three guys are 19.  The #2 guy is wildly overrated.  The number 4 guy is coming off a .720 OPS year in high A.    #5 is 20.     The only real prospect of a pitcher had Tommy John 3 months earlier.

 

1. Miguel Sano, 3b/ss

2. Joe Benson, of

3. Eddie Rosario, 2b/of

4. Aaron Hicks, of

5. Oswaldo Arcia, of

6. Levi Michael, ss/2b

7. Liam Hendriks, rhp

8. Kyle Gibson, rhp

9. Chris Parmelee, of/1b

10. Brian Dozier, ss/2b

 

What is your plan to get this team to .500 with a realistic chance upon improving that to contention in four years?  You even get the benefit of hindsight. 

 

I just don't see a path.

 

There wasn't a path to contention. They certainly didn't need to lose 90+ the last three years, but part of that is part fortune, part is bad decisions (both pre-2011 and with actual free agents signed), part is poor free agent markets that didn't align with needs.

 

It sucks having a bad team, but doesn't mean people need to forget how bad of shape the team was in following the 2011 season and how difficult it is to rebuild a pitching staff and farm system in shambles. Even with perfect hindsight there wasn't a clear path. Some additional wins of course, but not a clear path.

[Kwak]

A couple interesting points regarding the 2006 Tigers.

• They finished second in the division to the Twins managed by RG
• They did not have the ace many insist we must have.  They had 4 solid starters with an ERA between 3.63 and 4.08
• Their free agent acquisition that put them over the top was Kenny Rogers who was 41 y/o on a 2 year contract.  He gave them 195 innins and went 17-8.
• The other most significant addition to the team was a rookie named Verlander.
• Bonderman who had been poor in his first 3 seasons gave them 214 innings at 4.08.  In other words, that improvement came from within.
• Robertson gave them 208 innings at 3.85.  He was pretty bad in 2005 and went 7-16 with a 4.48 ERA.  His

The 2006 Tigers are a very poor example in terms of proving what many suggest we must do.  They did it by acquiring a mid level FA for 2 years, a rookie performing well, and the two Sps that remained from 2005 improving substantially.

No.

Magglio Ordonez  signed as free agent, was paid 16.2 MM in '06. 

Ivan (Pudge) Rodreiguez  signed as a free agent, was paid 10.6 MM in '06

Kenny Rodgers (as you mentioned)  8 MM

Carlos Guillen signed as a free agent, paid $5 MM in '06

Placido Polanco acquired from PHL during '05 season

"rookie performing well" = Justin Verlander, who wasn't wasted in the minors climbing rung-by-rung

and yes they have "improving players" from their own system.

Last, but not least, acquired a proven success for their field manager

 

Oh yes, their goal was to build a winner as opposed to cutting the budget.

[chopper0080]

It is March 2012.  Coming off a 65 win team.  Your ownership group has given you no budget for free agent acqusitions and wants you to rebuild.  You have the #2 pick in the upcoming draft. 

 

Here are your top minor leaguers, according to BA.  The number one and three guys are 19.  The #2 guy is wildly overrated.  The number 4 guy is coming off a .720 OPS year in high A.    #5 is 20.     The only real prospect of a pitcher had Tommy John 3 months earlier.

 

1. Miguel Sano, 3b/ss

2. Joe Benson, of

3. Eddie Rosario, 2b/of

4. Aaron Hicks, of

5. Oswaldo Arcia, of

6. Levi Michael, ss/2b

7. Liam Hendriks, rhp

8. Kyle Gibson, rhp

9. Chris Parmelee, of/1b

10. Brian Dozier, ss/2b

 

What is your plan to get this team to .500 with a realistic chance upon improving that to contention in four years?  You even get the benefit of hindsight. 

 

I just don't see a path.

So the path starts by adding quality players...are you trying to state that Phil Hughes was the first quality free agent available over that time?  Of course your aren't.  The facts were that we weren't playing the FA game.  Self imposed limitations aren't excuses.  Ryan took the job KNOWING ownerships views.  When you buy a car with 3 tires, you don't get to complain when you wreck driving it.

 

In terms of our farm system rankings...it proves how futile it can be to wait and depend on these players getting to the majors. 

[chopper0080]

Willingham came in and put up a 3.2 WAR and an OPS+ of 143.  He was an excellent signing for the 2012 team.  He probably should have been traded and not extended, but that doesn't stop the fact that he was a quality FA signing and he did produce.

 

Ricky is 1/4 of the way through his 4 year deal.  You can't clamor for the Twins to spend money, sign an SP to a 4 year, $48 million dollar deal....and then berate them when he has the worse season of his career.  That's the risk you take when signing free agents.

 

Kurt Suzuki, a free agent signing.  A quality free agent signing.  2.2 WAR and a fairly team friendly extension.  You can't take that away from the team because they didn't trade him.  He is still a quality free agent signing.  

 

Teams that have as many holes as the Twins do don't go out and signing big name free agents every year.  It just doesn't work that way.  

 

Hendricks and Wimmers where never anywhere close to be as highly touted as May and Meyer alone.  That doesn't include Berrios or a half a dozen other prospects in the Twins system.  They are no good comparisons.  I'll give you Aaron Hicks, even though I think the Twins screwed up big time with him trying to count on him when he wasn't even close to be ready for the majors.

 

Of course not all prospects will work out, but calling them all just magic beans isn't correct either.  Your statement makes it sound like 1 in every 1000 highly rated prospect works out.  I would argue that Top 100 prospects end up working out a higher percentage than paying older veterans to 4-5 year deals.  Just like you can't "wait for the fairy tale" of prospects maturing, you just can't throw money at free agents and just expect a great team.  You used an example yourself: Ricky Nolasco.

OK, let's take this line by line.

 

re: Willingham...either he is quality player, and Ryan failed in moving that for more prospects OR he is an average-at-best player who had little trade value on the market, and Ryan failed to being in a quality player.  You can't have it both ways.  FAIL

 

re: Nolasco...If he is such a quality player, why was he the worst pitcher on an awful staff?  Nolasco was a name, and one that looks like Ryan missed on.  Spending money on bad players is just as bad as not spending it in the first place.  FAIL

 

re: Suzuki...this is the Willingham situation all over again.  Either he is an average-player-at-best and had no trade market OR he had a career year and Ryan failed to move him.  In a two more year plan, Suzuki has no value to this team.  FAIL

 

and then you talk about the Twins and the holes they have.  That is what Ryan has had four years to do, FILL HOLES.  That is precisely what he has FAILED to do.

 

regarding Hendriks and Wimmers, it is easy to see their faults now, but these still were projected #3 or #4 starters in a MLB staff.  They aren't close to that.  Meyer can't throw strikes...how likely is it that he will suddenly turn it around?  Berrios is 6'0 tall and a slim frame.  Kohl is a raw high school pitcher who is learning how to pitch.  Lots of pitfalls in this "better" group ie magic beans.

Edited October 8, 2014 by chopper0080

[chopper0080]

Well, it now looks like 5 or 6 years. ......because apparently it won't be next year. If they actually try at some point, rather than wait.

Well let's make sure that we don't sign anyone until we know for sure.   I would hate to stumple upon a competitive team before our prospects are all ready.

[tobi0040]

So the path starts by adding quality players...are you trying to state that Phil Hughes was the first quality free agent available over that time?  Of course your aren't.  The facts were that we weren't playing the FA game.  Self imposed limitations aren't excuses.  Ryan took the job KNOWING ownerships views.  When you buy a car with 3 tires, you don't get to complain when you wreck driving it.

 

In terms of our farm system rankings...it proves how futile it can be to wait and depend on these players getting to the majors. 

 

I think Terry and the owners had an agreement when he signed on that it was going to take a long time to rebuild the team, given the shape it was in.  I think "not playing the FA game" was part of the deal for the first 2-3 years.  Both sides were on the same page. Because of that I have not heard Terry complain about the situation or his resources.

 

The fact remains that no path existed from 2012 to a contending team in 2014.  Even with the benefit of hindsight you can't put one together (with the prospects we had and a 110M payroll).  I am of the belief that you can only criticize someone if you can offer up a better solution.  Saying Terry failed without putting together a path is not productive at best.

Edited October 8, 2014 by tobi0040

[drjim]

Well let's make sure that we don't sign anyone until we know for sure. I would hate to stumple upon a competitive team before our prospects are all ready.

Just to rile Mike up a little I'll point out that since Ryan took the job he has dished out north of $130 mil in contracts to free agents from outside the organization (in three years) with the majority of that coming last offseason when he thought the team was ready to make a little jump.

 

You can complain about who was and wasn't signed, and surely you have, but to say "we don't sign anyone" is being intentionally obtuse.

 

And to assume they won't sign anyone is to ignore the fact that they indeed have signed people with the previous offseason being the largest free agent outlay in the history of the franchise.

 

Personally I would wait until the offseason is done before being so sure they aren't going to do anything.

[SwainZag]

OK, let's take this line by line.

 

re: Willingham...either he is quality player, and Ryan failed in moving that for more prospects OR he is an average-at-best player who had little trade value on the market, and Ryan failed to being in a quality player.  You can't have it both ways.  FAIL

 

re: Nolasco...If he is such a quality player, why was he the worst pitcher on an awful staff?  Nolasco was a name, and one that looks like Ryan missed on.  Spending money on bad players is just as bad as not spending it in the first place.  FAIL

 

re: Suzuki...this is the Willingham situation all over again.  Either he is an average-player-at-best and had no trade market OR he had a career year and Ryan failed to move him.  In a two more year plan, Suzuki has no value to this team.  FAIL

 

and then you talk about the Twins and the holes they have.  That is what Ryan has had four years to do, FILL HOLES.  That is precisely what he has FAILED to do.

 

regarding Hendriks and Wimmers, it is easy to see their faults now, but these still were projected #3 or #4 starters in a MLB staff.  They aren't close to that.  Meyer can't throw strikes...how likely is it that he will suddenly turn it around?  Berrios is 6'0 tall and a slim frame.  Kohl is a raw high school pitcher who is learning how to pitch.  Lots of pitfalls in this "better" group ie magic beans.

 

What more is there to say about Willingham?  The Twins signed him to a contract, he had a great year, he had an injury plagued year and then they trade him in 2014.  His value was the highest in 2012, but how do you or anyone else even know what was offered? You can't automatically call him a failed signing because they didn't trade him at his peak.  

 

The same goes for Suzuki.  For all we know they could have been heavily shopping him at the deadline but found no offers they found worth it.  With a lack of catchers on the market and Pinto being a big question mark when it comes to defense, a 2 year deal isn't a big deal AND he still has trade value.  How in the world could signing Suzuki be considered a failure?

 

You want the team to sign free agents and when one doesn't work out you just yell fail.  Who could point to Nolasco coming and having the year he did with the Twins?  6 straight seasons of a FIP below. I believe a lot of people were more on board with the Nolasco signing than the Hughes signing.  It looked much more than just signing "just a name."  Hindsight sure is 20/20 isn't it?

 

When you have a lot of holes, the last thing you want to do is go throw free agent money to veteran players.  That's how you run up a high payroll and not have wins to show for it.

 

Whimmers has been riddled with injuries since being drafted and has never made it out of AA ball.  Hendricks obviously didn't pan out, but he was never a big prospect to begin with.

 

For a guy who can't throw strikes, striking out 153 batters in 130 innings in AAA last season sure was something then.  Berrios is undersized, no hiding that but that doesn't mean he can't become a successful player.  It didn't stop Pedro.  Just throwing out Kohl because he is young?  He pitched very well in his first full season.

 

If you look for faults you can find them in any player, prospect or not.  

[chopper0080]

I don't know what else to say, and I have not seen anyone give any semblence of a reason that four 90 loss seasons is not a failure by the entire organization.

 

There has yet to be anyone to express that Ryan was not aware of the rules he was playing with when he took the job.  No one restricted the organizations ability to acquire talent other than the Twins themselves.  How can that be an excuse. 

 

In a sport where rules have been implemented to maintain parity, people are arguing it takes 6 years to build a competitive team.  Over half a decade, and where large market teams no longer dominate the post season.  The days of the evil Yankees using teams as their farm system are over.  The days of buying teams are over.  Gone are the guady home run numbers.  In the era of pitching, defense, and timely hitting the Twins are losing 90 games.

 

We are a team that has gotten rid of Carlos Gomez, JJ Hardy, Justin Morneau, MIchael Cuddyer, Denard Span, Ben Revere, Josh Willingham (who I have been assured belongs on this list), Carl Pavano, and Joe Nathan.  What did we get in return?  What outside talent do we have on our roster to show for our four year plight?  Nolasco, Hughes, and Suzuki.  Alex Meyer and Trevor May.  Is that really what should be considered a win after four offseasons to work with?  How skewed is that perspective?  Some of the posters on this board could do that.  Seriously.

 

We are four years into a rebuild, and we are just now firing our manager.  I have asked it before, but if this isn't failing then what is?

[drjim]

I don't know what else to say, and I have not seen anyone give any semblence of a reason that four 90 loss seasons is not a failure by the entire organization.

 

There has yet to be anyone to express that Ryan was not aware of the rules he was playing with when he took the job.  No one restricted the organizations ability to acquire talent other than the Twins themselves.  How can that be an excuse. 

 

In a sport where rules have been implemented to maintain parity, people are arguing it takes 6 years to build a competitive team.  Over half a decade, and where large market teams no longer dominate the post season.  The days of the evil Yankees using teams as their farm system are over.  The days of buying teams are over.  Gone are the guady home run numbers.  In the era of pitching, defense, and timely hitting the Twins are losing 90 games.

 

We are a team that has gotten rid of Carlos Gomez, JJ Hardy, Justin Morneau, MIchael Cuddyer, Denard Span, Ben Revere, Josh Willingham (who I have been assured belongs on this list), Carl Pavano, and Joe Nathan.  What did we get in return?  What outside talent do we have on our roster to show for our four year plight?  Nolasco, Hughes, and Suzuki.  Alex Meyer and Trevor May.  Is that really what should be considered a win after four offseasons to work with?  How skewed is that perspective?  Some of the posters on this board could do that.  Seriously.

 

We are four years into a rebuild, and we are just now firing our manager.  I have asked it before, but if this isn't failing then what is?

 

It is enough of a failure that they have fired the GM and manager. Perhaps not on the timeline you wanted.

 

And a couple of other things - it is a 3 year rebuild so far, 2011 is the year they are rebuilding from, and I'm not so certain they were fully committed to a rebuild in 2012, more trying to avoid a complete collapse.

 

Also, if you want to criticize Terry Ryan, which I assume is your intention, probably doesn't bolster your case to have half the players you mention leave the organization before he was hired. And the other half either retired, were spun for legitimate assets that will be part of the next competitive team, or were well into their decline years which, as you have mentioned before, are not the type of players they should be investing in and wouldn't be part of a future championship team.

 

But if it makes you feel better I will affirm the position that 2011-2014 has been a disaster for the Twins. Not sure anyone would argue otherwise. But I would say things have been done to get them on their way out of it starting next year. That is why I would not fire Ryan - yet.

[chopper0080]

It is enough of a failure that they have fired the GM and manager. Perhaps not on the timeline you wanted.

 

And a couple of other things - it is a 3 year rebuild so far, 2011 is the year they are rebuilding from, and I'm not so certain they were fully committed to a rebuild in 2012, more trying to avoid a complete collapse.

 

Also, if you want to criticize Terry Ryan, which I assume is your intention, probably doesn't bolster your case to have half the players you mention leave the organization before he was hired. And the other half either retired, were spun for legitimate assets that will be part of the next competitive team, or were well into their decline years which, as you have mentioned before, are not the type of players they should be investing in and wouldn't be part of a future championship team.

 

But if it makes you feel better I will affirm the position that 2011-2014 has been a disaster for the Twins. Not sure anyone would argue otherwise. But I would say things have been done to get them on their way out of it starting next year. That is why I would not fire Ryan - yet.

Who?  Meyer, Mays, and who?  Who have we acquired that is an asset for this team going forward?  I have Hughes.  Some will argue for Nolasco though I would argue that he seems like money wasted.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Just to rile Mike up a little I'll point out that since Ryan took the job he has dished out north of $130 mil in contracts to free agents from outside the organization (in three years) with the majority of that coming last offseason when he thought the team was ready to make a little jump.

My calculations show almost $131 million exactly guaranteed to outside free agents (not counting minor league deals) since TR took over in 2011, covering 19 player seasons.  And I only get to that figure by including Morales and his 3-month contract.  That's an average season salary of $6.9 mil and age of 32.4.  (And of course we dumped about ~$8 mil of those salary guarantees through various trades too.)

 

And when the average MLB player salary is ~$3.5 mil, most of our signings don't register as anything, really.  You can dish out ~$4 mil to a Marquis or Pelfrey every year for five years, but that's not a cumulative $20 mil investment in FA in any real sense of "playing the market."

 

Only 3 outside FA contracts have really met that standard: Willingham in 2012, and Nolasco/Hughes in 2014.  (I hesitate to include Morales' 3-month contract here -- however bold it was in cash, it was ultra-conservative in term.)

 

Not only is that a very conservative record, you can also make the case that it's not very good -- and in fact, most of the activity this past winter could just as easily be attributed to desperation after the previous two poor offseasons, rather than "being ready to make a little jump."  Perhaps a team with a more realistic/aggressive approach in FA for 2011-2013 doesn't need to overpay Nolasco early last winter.  (EDIT TO ADD: actually I hope that was the reason for the Nolasco signing, rather than poor talent identification...)

Edited October 9, 2014 by spycake

[drjim]

Who?  Meyer, Mays, and who?  Who have we acquired that is an asset for this team going forward?  I have Hughes.  Some will argue for Nolasco though I would argue that he seems like money wasted.

 

I would add Escobar, and the draft pick for Cuddyer leaving ended up being Berrios.

 

I was only referencing the players you mentioned that left. These players either left before Ryan took over, retired, were spun for legitimate assets, or were well into their decline phase of their career (Coors field inspired batting titles not withstanding). I would argue that rebuilding teams should not lament losing any of these assets.

[drjim]

My calculations show almost $131 million exactly guaranteed to outside free agents (not counting minor league deals) since TR took over in 2011, covering 19 player seasons.  And I only get to that figure by including Morales and his 3-month contract.  That's an average season salary of $6.9 mil and age of 32.4.  (And of course we dumped about ~$8 mil of those salary guarantees through various trades too.)

 

And when the average MLB player salary is ~$3.5 mil, most of our signings don't register as anything, really.  You can dish out ~$4 mil to a Marquis or Pelfrey every year for five years, but that's not a cumulative $20 mil investment in FA in any real sense of "playing the market."

 

Only 3 outside FA contracts have really met that standard: Willingham in 2012, and Nolasco/Hughes in 2014.  (I hesitate to include Morales' 3-month contract here -- however bold it was in cash, it was ultra-conservative in term.)

 

Not only is that a very conservative record, you can also make the case that it's not very good -- and in fact, most of the activity this past winter could just as easily be attributed to desperation after the previous two poor offseasons, rather than "being ready to make a little jump."  Perhaps a team with a more realistic/aggressive approach in FA for 2011-2013 doesn't need to overpay Nolasco early last winter.  (EDIT TO ADD: actually I hope that was the reason for the Nolasco signing, rather than poor talent identification...)

 

I tried to find total spending for all teams each of the past three years but could only find last year. Twins were number 6 overall (not counting Morales). This can be spun in all sorts of ways, but that seems acceptable to me.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/03/2013-14-free-agent-spending-by-team-to-date.html

 

I imagine the previous two years were more in the 17-25 range, but payroll going into the 2012 season was around $100 mil, so that strikes me as acceptable as well.

 

The main outlier since Ryan took over was 2012-2013 offseason, and while that has been debated to death on this board, it was a terrible market for starters which probably prevented spending that offseason as much as any specific decision made from ownership or Ryan.

[Otto von Ballpark]

It is March 2012.  Coming off a 65 win team.  Your ownership group has given you no budget for free agent acqusitions and wants you to rebuild.  You have the #2 pick in the upcoming draft. 

 

Here are your top minor leaguers, according to BA.  The number one and three guys are 19.  The #2 guy is wildly overrated.  The number 4 guy is coming off a .720 OPS year in high A.    #5 is 20.     The only real prospect of a pitcher had Tommy John 3 months earlier.

 

1. Miguel Sano, 3b/ss

2. Joe Benson, of

3. Eddie Rosario, 2b/of

4. Aaron Hicks, of

5. Oswaldo Arcia, of

6. Levi Michael, ss/2b

7. Liam Hendriks, rhp

8. Kyle Gibson, rhp

9. Chris Parmelee, of/1b

10. Brian Dozier, ss/2b

 

What is your plan to get this team to .500 with a realistic chance upon improving that to contention in four years?  You even get the benefit of hindsight. 

 

I just don't see a path.

If TR took the job in 2011 knowing it was a rebuild with modest payroll restraints, he still easily could have signed Jorge Soler or other international prospects before July 2012.  He could have pursued Cespedes or Puig for comparable AAV that he gave to Willingham.  Wei-Yin Chen would have been a much better gamble for our 2012 rotation, given its question marks beyond that season, than Jason Marquis for similar AAV.  Jose Abreu made less money for all of 2014 than Kendrys Morales did for 3 months, and is obviously a way better asset now.

 

 

None of those moves alone makes the Twins contenders right now, or guarantee contention at any point, but any of them certainly would give us more assets now and put us in a better position going forward.  Heck, he could made any two of the above moves, and added two more stinkers along similar lines (i.e. Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez), and we'd still be better off.

 

On the domestic front, you're right that it's been mostly slim pickings among notable free agents.  If you're not going to contend, you might as well gamble on upside (Garza, Feldman) than consistent mediocrity (Nolasco, Correia).  A simple "don't sign Nolasco" would also improve TR's record.     Not doubling down on Pelfrey.  Also, targeting a more realistic reclamation than (or in addition to) Rich Harden wouldn't have been that hard (Scott Kazmir was actually pitching at the time we hoped that Harden would eventually pitch again).  I liked the deal for Worley, but trying some different coaches with him before giving him away after a year would have been advisable (particularly when we fired our coaches within 6 months anyway).

 

Even if you grant that he's working under payroll/rebuild limitations, it's pretty hard not to see that TR has not performed well recently outside of the draft (the fruits of which have yet to reach the majors, or mostly even the upper minors).

[tobi0040]

If TR took the job in 2011 knowing it was a rebuild with modest payroll restraints, he still easily could have signed Jorge Soler or other international prospects before July 2012.  He could have pursued Cespedes or Puig for comparable AAV that he gave to Willingham.  Wei-Yin Chen would have been a much better gamble for our 2012 rotation, given its question marks beyond that season, than Jason Marquis for similar AAV.  Jose Abreu made less money for all of 2014 than Kendrys Morales did for 3 months, and is obviously a way better asset now.

 

 

None of those moves alone makes the Twins contenders right now, or guarantee contention at any point, but any of them certainly would give us more assets now and put us in a better position going forward.  Heck, he could made any two of the above moves, and added two more stinkers along similar lines (i.e. Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez), and we'd still be better off.

 

On the domestic front, you're right that it's been mostly slim pickings among notable free agents.  If you're not going to contend, you might as well gamble on upside (Garza, Feldman) than consistent mediocrity (Nolasco, Correia).  A simple "don't sign Nolasco" would also improve TR's record.     Not doubling down on Pelfrey.  Also, targeting a more realistic reclamation than (or in addition to) Rich Harden wouldn't have been that hard (Scott Kazmir was actually pitching at the time we hoped that Harden would eventually pitch again).  I liked the deal for Worley, but trying some different coaches with him before giving him away after a year would have been advisable (particularly when we fired our coaches within 6 months anyway).

 

Even if you grant that he's working under payroll/rebuild limitations, it's pretty hard not to see that TR has not performed well recently outside of the draft (the fruits of which have yet to reach the majors, or mostly even the upper minors).

 

This is really my point. With the benefit of hindisight we could have not signed Pelfrey and Nolasco and then handpicked four of the best FA bargains out there. 

 

By my count, payroll would have been $97M last year without Ricky and Pelfrey and add Abreu (11M), Chen (4M) Soler (3M) , and Kazmir (11M)

 

WAR:

 

Soler - 0 ( was in AAA)

Abreu - 5.5

Kazmir - 1.7

Chen - 1.8

 

We are a $98M team that won 79 games with the benefit of flawless signings and no signings.  I think that goes to show how far we were away.

 

Kazmir and Chen would have a year left. 

Edited October 9, 2014 by tobi0040

[Otto von Ballpark]

I tried to find total spending for all teams each of the past three years but could only find last year. Twins were number 6 overall (not counting Morales). This can be spun in all sorts of ways, but that seems acceptable to me.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/03/2013-14-free-agent-spending-by-team-to-date.html

 

I imagine the previous two years were more in the 17-25 range, but payroll going into the 2012 season was around $100 mil, so that strikes me as acceptable as well.

 

The main outlier since Ryan took over was 2012-2013 offseason, and while that has been debated to death on this board, it was a terrible market for starters which probably prevented spending that offseason as much as any specific decision made from ownership or Ryan.

That 2013-2014 offseason number isn't bad, but it includes the re-sign of Pelfrey.  And as I've mentioned, a likely overpay/desperation sign in Nolasco.

 

By my count, we guaranteed $33.75 mil to new FA in 2011-2012, although covering 6 season at an average age of 34.7.  And 2012-2013, we only guaranteed $14 mil for 3 total seasons of Correia and Pelfrey.

 

But if the domestic FA market hasn't been strong -- why hasn't TR invested internationally when he could?  That's even more damning for a rebuilding team on a modest budget.  See my post above for specifics.

[brvama]

Are we playing a board game here? It sounds so easy to just get certain guys that are or were out there, like Abreau or Puig or anyother player. It's not because there are so many factors involved. And where is the proof that Ryan didn't go after some of these players. But we'll never know, will we, until he writes his memoirs.

 

There is obviously a giant dislike of TR and/or what he has NOT accomplished which is your justification to have him fired. Fine. The rest of us aren't there yet. But trying to convince us with 20/20 hindsight is well, IMHO, short-sighted.

Edited October 9, 2014 by brvama

[Mike Sixel]

I don't care if Ryan tries to improve the team, I could do that as GM. I care if he succeeds in improving the team. Anyone can "try" to "go after" players.......successful GMs add talent. They don't try to add talent.

[Otto von Ballpark]

This is really my point. With the benefit of hindisight we could have not signed Pelfrey and Nolasco and then handpicked four of the best FA bargains out there. 

 

By my count, payroll would have been $97M last year without Ricky and Pelfrey and add Abreu (11M), Chen (4M) Soler (3M) , and Kazmir (11M)

 

WAR:

 

Soler - 0 ( was in AAA)

Abreu - 5.5

Kazmir - 1.7

Chen - 1.8

 

We are a $98M team that won 79 games with the benefit of flawless signings and no signings.  I think that goes to show how far we were away.

 

Kazmir and Chen would have a year left. 

Abreu only made $7 mil in 2014, although yes it is $11 mil AAV.  I think if we signed Abreu, we wouldn't have bothered with the Kendrys Morales experience, so that's another $7 mil subtracted.  That would take your payroll down to $90 mil or so, at least.

 

Kazmir the reclamation project was before 2013, not so much last winter (although I would not have minded him last winter).  Lose him for 2014 and you're down to $79 mil, if you really care about it.

 

But looking at potential 2014 wins is vastly under-rating how much better shape this team would be in.  In addition to Chen and possibly Kazmir (above-average LH SP on real-life playoff teams) still under contract for 2015, we'd have a superstar at 1B/DH for 5 more years and a MLB-ready, consensus top 25 OF prospect in Soler.  THAT'S a team I don't mind waiting for prospect reinforcements a little further down the line!

 

You could add a couple duds to that mix (Nolasco, Pelfrey, and/or Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez) and still be better off than where the Twins sit today, so your "flawless" qualifier doesn't really hold either.

[Mike Sixel]

Why is it wrong to sign a FA if he won't make you a WS contender (if you have the money, even for years to come given the number of cheap players here), but ok to promote a prospect? 

 

The argument seems to be "don't spend money if you can't win the WS", as in "they aren't just one player away, so don't sign him". Yes, people are typing that here.

 

Why is that the standard? Why isn't "make the team better" the standard? Other than the owners, who is better off (well, I guess bad players that would have to find other jobs are) by fielding a cheaper, worse team? How is spending less, and winning 68 games, better for the fans than spending more and winning 75 games?