Article: Terry Ryan: Still Employed

[Oxtung]

Can we move past the "Ryan has restocked the system" meme?  I don't have time right now to run down the list but almost every prospect the Twins have is there because of one a couple different reasons.  First, many are guys Smith drafted/signed.  Second, the Twins have been terrible and so have had top 5 draft picks.  Third, the Twins have been bad so the Twins could trade their few good players for prospects.

 

While Ryan should be given credit for not screwing up his opportunities lets not go overboard. He hasn't done anything that every other GM hasn't/wouldn't do.  Unless you live in Philadelphia.

[D. Hocking]

It is my opinion, and there is probably nothing that will ever change it, that Ryan left after 2007 because he didn't want to be known as the guy that traded Santana, didn't resign Hunter, and couldn't bring himself to give Mauer a huge contract.

 

I think he left Smith in a horrible position when he took over. And then after the disastrous 2011 season, Ryan comes riding in on his white horse to "clean up" the mess that he partially created.

 

I have always felt that was a big reason he left was because he did not want to make those decisions.  Part burn-out, part avoidance.   Plus, I have always thought he had some input on some of the decisions Smith made when he first became GM.  At the very least, I don't think Smith made his early decisions without strong input from someone.

 

Not that Smith did not make some bad decisions (Nishi alone..), and Ryan has made some very good decisions, but I think sometimes things get oversimplified and every bad decision is blamed on Smith and Ryan is completely disassociated from some things where he had some involvement.

Edited October 3, 2014 by D. Hocking

[tobi0040]

Can we move past the "Ryan has restocked the system" meme?  I don't have time right now to run down the list but almost every prospect the Twins have is there because of one a couple different reasons.  First, many are guys Smith drafted/signed.  Second, the Twins have been terrible and so have had top 5 draft picks.  Third, the Twins have been bad so the Twins could trade their few good players for prospects.

 

While Ryan should be given credit for not screwing up his opportunities lets not go overboard. He hasn't done anything that every other GM hasn't/wouldn't do.  Unless you live in Philadelphia.

 

I am a believer in ths meme for a few reasons. 

 

Most importantly, I think Terry was brought in to rebuild this team and had a clear mandate to do so internally.  He was not given the payroll for any free agent signings.  So to criticize the guys like Correia or Pelfrey as major flops seems to be a tad off base.  I think he also had to rely on getting innings from AAAA types.

 

While blessed with three draft picks in the top five, these picks are never locks.  Buxton, Kohl, and Gordon look like really good picks. Specifically the Buxton pick over the arm we all throught we desparately needed (Appel, Zimmer, or Gausman).  

 

In 2012 we also walked away with Berrios, Walker, Melotakis, Rogers, Muren, and Hicks among others.  Also signed Thorpe this year.

 

In 2013 we stole Gonslaves, got Turner and Garver late as well as Alex Swim.

 

In 2014, Burdi was a steal.  Batts, Cederoth, Murphy, etc.looks like another good one.

 

I also believe the Meyer and May trades are going to pay off for us.

 

He has done about as good of a job turning the system around as we could have asked. I think we went from mid 20's to top 3. 

[Mike Sixel]

THE GM DOES NOT make the draft picks. The scouting director does that. The best way TR has contributed to the draft is by fielding awful MLB teams, giving the team a shot at more elite players.

[tobi0040]

THE GM DOES NOT make the draft picks. The scouting director does that. The best way TR has contributed to the draft is by fielding awful MLB teams, giving the team a shot at more elite players.

 

That assumes he has no input.  My gut tells me he has to at least approve and does scout them all personally.

[Mike Sixel]

That's not what Ryan says, that not what any talking head on the internet says. Ryan does not approve the picks. 

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

I realize that everyone is all jacked up about the Twins minor league prospects, and that we have been ranked top 3 in that area the past few years, but that is deceiving if you are trying to gauge of teams future. Prospect rankings list may not be the best way to look at a teams future, as it does not account for the major league lineups. Several teams best young players advance to the majors quickly, and some teams are more aggressive about this than others. I always kind of wondered why I never hear organizations being discussed in this fashion.

 

I came across some under 26 and under 25 rankings after doing some research. These seem like a much better way of assessing a teams true future talent. Just because a really young stud has reached the majors does not mean he should not be accounted for in that teams future. Those players should be considered along with the minor league system. 

 

Baseball Prospectus had the Twins as the best minor league system this year. However, the Twins 25 and under ranking was 13th in the league. Guys that have made the majors should actually be weighted more heavily when forecasting a teams future. We are just average in the under 25 departments because all of our players are prospects, which mean less reliable talent. 

 

Something to consider here that is rarely discussed when talking about the Twins bright future. I wonder how many of those 12 teams ranked above the Twins are to be more likely to supplement those future teams with spending on FA's and resigning FA eligible in-house talent? I know this is a more pessimistic way to look at our future, but I am just trying to be realistic in our constant hanging on to the hope of being save by the young prospects.

Edited October 3, 2014 by ShouldaCouldaWoulda

[tobi0040]

That's not what Ryan says, that not what any talking head on the internet says. Ryan does not approve the picks. 

 

We will never know the inner workings/politics of it all.   Here are my thoughts:

 

Terry Ryan could fire Deron Johnson if he wanted to.  In my experience, not many things happen in this world without your boss on board.  Whether that be in baseball or corporate america.

 

 

Edited October 3, 2014 by tobi0040

[Linus]

I share this opinion 100%. I've even typed it here before. It is not a popular opinion to hold.

Its not a popular opinion because there is not a shred of evidence to support it.  Its pure speculation on your part because you don't like the guy.

[Linus]

THE GM DOES NOT make the draft picks. The scouting director does that. The best way TR has contributed to the draft is by fielding awful MLB teams, giving the team a shot at more elite players.

Fair enough.  I will assume going forward that we will dismiss all criticism of Ryan for poor drafting.  Seems like I've read that before around here....

[gunnarthor]

THE GM DOES NOT make the draft picks. The scouting director does that. The best way TR has contributed to the draft is by fielding awful MLB teams, giving the team a shot at more elite players.

Eh.  First, the GM has a huge say in the first round pick, esp at the top of the board.  Second, when Ryan came back, he publicly stated that he and Radcliff would have input on the draft.  He didn't mention Johnson (and Johnson has had some bad results prior in the draft).  Third, there was no way the Twins could pass on college ready pitchers to get a HS kid that everyone thought would take many years to develop without specific approval from the GM.  Fourth, when Ryan wasn't the GM, his generalized area to cover was the SE and PR.  Twins drafted heavily from those areas once he came back to the GM chair.  Lastly, ever report indicated that Ryan (like all GMs) would see the players.

 

Secondly, a lot of the Ryan talk is code for the FO.  A lot of anti-Ryan guys use thoughts about the Twins being stuck in their ways etc.  It's an attack on the whole FO not just Ryan.  So it's fair to use Ryan both ways.

Edited October 3, 2014 by gunnarthor

[Mike Sixel]

Its not a popular opinion because there is not a shred of evidence to support it.  Its pure speculation on your part because you don't like the guy.

 

I like the guy fine, from what you can tell from afar. yes, it is speculation, hence my use of the word "opinion", not fact, or even stating it like a fact. It is my opinion, nothing more or less. I've even typed here that I have no shred of evidence to support it.

[gunnarthor]

Can we move past the "Ryan has restocked the system" meme?  I don't have time right now to run down the list but almost every prospect the Twins have is there because of one a couple different reasons.  First, many are guys Smith drafted/signed.  Second, the Twins have been terrible and so have had top 5 draft picks.  Third, the Twins have been bad so the Twins could trade their few good players for prospects.

 

While Ryan should be given credit for not screwing up his opportunities lets not go overboard. He hasn't done anything that every other GM hasn't/wouldn't do.  Unless you live in Philadelphia.

A few things wrong with this.  First, of the Twins best prospects only Sano and Polanco are Smith guys. 

 

I'm also sure it's fair to say that he's dong what any other GM would do with those picks.  The Astros have absolutely torpedo their drafts (and they've drafted above us in everyone). 

[Kwak]

That assumes he has no input.  My gut tells me he has to at least approve and does scout them all personally.

Ryan has stated (for years) that he only gets involved in the first round of the draft.  He disdains  the draft as "a crap shoot".  He firmly believes in his own scouting ability and scans the rosters of other teams for "talent".

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

I realize that everyone is all jacked up about the Twins minor league prospects, and that we have been ranked top 3 in that area the past few years, but that is deceiving if you are trying to gauge of teams future. Prospect rankings list may not be the best way to look at a teams future, as it does not account for the major league lineups. Several teams best young players advance to the majors quickly, and some teams are more aggressive about this than others. I always kind of wondered why I never hear organizations being discussed in this fashion.

 

I came across some under 26 and under 25 rankings after doing some research. These seem like a much better way of assessing a teams true future talent. Just because a really young stud has reached the majors does not mean he should not be accounted for in that teams future. Those players should be considered along with the minor league system. 

 

Baseball Prospectus had the Twins as the best minor league system this year. However, the Twins 25 and under ranking was 13th in the league. Guys that have made the majors should actually be weighted more heavily when forecasting a teams future. We are just average in the under 25 departments because all of our players are prospects, which mean less reliable talent. 

 

Something to consider here that is rarely discussed when talking about the Twins bright future. I wonder how many of those 12 teams ranked above the Twins are to be more likely to supplement those future teams with spending on FA's and resigning FA eligible in-house talent? I know this is a more pessimistic way to look at our future, but I am just trying to be realistic in our constant hanging on to the hope of being save by the young prospects.

 

For example, I went to Fangraphs and looked at SP's ages 20-25 for this past year (Meyer is 24 and May is 25.) I chose 50 IP at the MLB level for a random reference point to start looking at them. There were 45 SP's ages 25 or under with at least 50 IP that had a FIP under 4.00. May missed this cut by by about 4 innings, but had a 4.73 FIP, and Meyer hasn't pitched a single inning in the majors.

 

That is 45 STARTING pitchers 25 or younger (with small sample sizes) that have already reached the  majors and also pitched with success this year. Some other talented names have been called up to their teams bullpens or have underperformed like May. 

[SwainZag]

For example, I went to Fangraphs and looked at SP's ages 20-25 for this past year (Meyer is 24 and May is 25.) I chose 50 IP at the MLB level for a random reference point to start looking at them. There were 45 SP's ages 25 or under with at least 50 IP that had a FIP under 4.00. May missed this cut by by about 4 innings, but had a 4.73 FIP, and Meyer hasn't pitched a single inning in the majors.

 

That is 45 STARTING pitchers 25 or younger (with small sample sizes) that have already reached the  majors and also pitched with success this year. Some other talented names have been called up to their teams bullpens or have underperformed like May. 

 

From the sounds of it, it's obvious the list you are looking at uses major league time as a huge advantage in it's rankings.  Most of the Twins top young players aren't there yet, hence why they are lower on this list.  I don't really see how it has any weight with how good the Twins system is if the guys have reached the majors or not. 

[Mike Sixel]

Aren't players in the majors more likely to be good in the majors than guys in A ball? I think he's talking about that, but i'm not sure.....

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

From the sounds of it, it's obvious the list you are looking at uses major league time as a huge advantage in it's rankings.  Most of the Twins top young players aren't there yet, hence why they are lower on this list.  I don't really see how it has any weight with how good the Twins system is if the guys have reached the majors or not. 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22944

 

Here is the rankings. I like a lot of those other teams top 10 guys 25 and under better than ours, especially some of the other teams guys have proven themselves at the majors and are younger than some of our prospects in the minors. Interesting to see where land in next years rankings. I think we might fall further down the list even. 

'

[SwainZag]

Aren't players in the majors more likely to be good in the majors than guys in A ball? I think he's talking about that, but i'm not sure.....

 

Guys that have made it the majors have a much higher success rate than guys in A ball, sure.  But when you are looking at a list that puts much more emphasis and higher rankings on guys that have made it to the majors, the Twins are obviously going to be lower.  Most of their highly touted prospects are between the ages of 18 and 23 and have been in the system for 4 years or less.

 

I know it's fun to go look a player who is 23 and in the majors and bash the Twins front office, but honestly guys mature and develop and different speeds.

[Riverbrian]

I remember 2011 was in the books. We had just lost 99 games.

 

There was very little talent in the majors and there was very little talent in the minors. Sano was like 12 years old and a few years away.

 

I remember thinking to myself...This is gonna take a little while... I told myself to be patient.

 

I never expected a quick fix so I'm still in patience mode.

[Rosterman]

Yeah, all those killer starts. You could've started Trevor May and Alex Meyer 30 times each and had equal, if not better, overall stats.

 

The team is too much about finding that Scott Diamond in the rough. You can jump up-and-down when you Rule 5 a Shane Mack or a Johan Santana. You can smile when you pull a Fien or Burton out of the discard pile.

 

But you also have to take flack for calling Joe Benson a five-tool player, or not figuring out Aaron Hicks, or (everyone except teams actually in post-season) doing something about Delmon Young.

 

We had Hicks, Mastro and Benson major league ready. What happened?

 

No one saw the Nolasco meltdown. 

 

We all knew what Correia will give us.

 

But even this season, trotting out Swarzak for four starts at the end of the season...this is where you definitely look at the next crop: Meyer, Berrios, anyone that might be in the plans of the rotation in 2015 and beyond. Not your burnt out long guy in the bullpen just because he wants to start. (And why we didn't September call-up Kris Johnson is beyond me. He could take lumps as well as the rest of them).

 

Not just Ryan. But, sadly, start with St. Peter. Bring in new blood from the top down. You have a new multi-million dollar stadium, a strong fan base, yet everything has gone downhill for four years and no one seems to see/learn from their mistakes.

[Kwak]

Yeah, all those killer starts. You could've started Trevor May and Alex Meyer 30 times each and had equal, if not better, overall stats.

 

The team is too much about finding that Scott Diamond in the rough. You can jump up-and-down when you Rule 5 a Shane Mack or a Johan Santana. You can smile when you pull a Fien or Burton out of the discard pile.

 

But you also have to take flack for calling Joe Benson a five-tool player, or not figuring out Aaron Hicks, or (everyone except teams actually in post-season) doing something about Delmon Young.

 

We had Hicks, Mastro and Benson major league ready. What happened?

 

No one saw the Nolasco meltdown. 

 

We all knew what Correia will give us.

 

But even this season, trotting out Swarzak for four starts at the end of the season...this is where you definitely look at the next crop: Meyer, Berrios, anyone that might be in the plans of the rotation in 2015 and beyond. Not your burnt out long guy in the bullpen just because he wants to start. (And why we didn't September call-up Kris Johnson is beyond me. He could take lumps as well as the rest of them).

 

Not just Ryan. But, sadly, start with St. Peter. Bring in new blood from the top down. You have a new multi-million dollar stadium, a strong fan base, yet everything has gone downhill for four years and no one seems to see/learn from their mistakes.

+1000

 

That has been "The Ryan Way.   Sift through rosters and waiver wires and seek discaded gems because no only are players inexpensive you can be called "a genius".  Yes, Ryan won the lottery with

Johan Santana--and gets the proper credit--but team building isn't about winning lotteries.  It's signing, developing, and occasionally exchanging, to fix problems and plug holes.

[USAFChief]

Guys that have made it the majors have a much higher success rate than guys in A ball, sure.  But when you are looking at a list that puts much more emphasis and higher rankings on guys that have made it to the majors, the Twins are obviously going to be lower.  Most of their highly touted prospects are between the ages of 18 and 23 and have been in the system for 4 years or less.

 

I know it's fun to go look a player who is 23 and in the majors and bash the Twins front office, but honestly guys mature and develop and different speeds.

I see the point as: a top minor league system is nice, but one reason it's a bit misleading to put too much stock in it is some of the comparisons should be to young players already contributing at the major league level, rather than just to other minor leaguers.

 

The goal is to get these guys to the big leagues, have them produce, and win games. Having a 24 yr old put up nice numbers in Rochester doesn't win any MLB games...he should be compared to a similar 24 yr old producing in the majors.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

I see the point as: a top minor league system is nice, but one reason it's a bit misleading to put too much stock in it is some of the comparisons should be to young players already contributing at the major league level, rather than just to other minor leaguers.

 

The goal is to get these guys to the big leagues, have them produce, and win games. Having a 24 yr old put up nice numbers in Rochester doesn't win any MLB games...he should be compared to a similar 24 yr old producing in the majors.

That was completely my point from my earlier posts. Like I stated the Twins were ranked 13th for 25 and under talent. But, the part that scares me is that even some of those teams ranked worse than us might outspend or trade to better their future situations. 

 

I am excited about the young talent we have. I obsess about them too much myself, but I recently realized that looking at minor league prospects by itself is not smart when predicting future success. Our minor league system might be better than the Marlins system, but their entire starting rotation is 25 and under and they're succeeding at the majors. They also have Stanton, Yelich, and Ozuna  all under 25 who are starting and succeeding in their OF in the majors. Now add their guys from the minors to the picture and you get really excited. However, their ownership makes ours look awesome. 

 

I am just stating that we need to look at our future talent in terms of our entire organization, not just our minors, and then compare that to that of other teams. St Louis is another team with a bunch of young guys already performing well in the majors. Being ranked as the #1 minor league system probably doesn't really mean as much as I had hoped it did. Sigh.

Edited October 4, 2014 by ShouldaCouldaWoulda

[Molitor4manager]

Mike Wants Wins is the winner of this thread in my opinion. He's hitting the nail on the head with a lot of other guys checking in with agreement.  I for one am fine with canning Gardy.  It was time.  I also think a complete restructure of the front office is needed but I'm baffled by the Pohlad family's acceptance of CRAP (not just mediocre performance).  There is no way they would accept this kind of performance in any other business they own.  Because they "don't know baseball" they must feel they are held hostage by the current "brain-trust."  What owner wouldn't LOVE a front office that is reluctant to spend money???  My problem with this whole mindset is that we're always dumpster diving.  Corriea, Pelfry, Nolasco, Pavano, even Hughes.  These guys are not ACES.  We need an ACE.  Look at the Royals.  They had a lot of good young arms coming up but went out and got James Shields.  He's their ACE.  He makes the entire staff better.  We have the ability to add an ACE.  This off season it's time to go out and get a Scherzer, Shields, lester, Hamels etc...  You can never have too much starting pitching

[Mike Sixel]

Ha, I'm not trying to win anything. I'm not even really arguing here, I'm just trying to have a mature baseball discussion. Sometimes we aren't as tolerant as we could all be, but I think most of the threads so far this last week or so have been pretty mature.

 

Everything I post on this site is about performance and process, not about the people. Sometimes we forget that .....

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

Ha, I'm not trying to win anything. I'm not even really arguing here, I'm just trying to have a mature baseball discussion. Sometimes we aren't as tolerant as we could all be, but I think most of the threads so far this last week or so have been pretty mature.

 

Everything I post on this site is about performance and process, not about the people. Sometimes we forget that .....

Congrat Mike! Yeah, from what I have read it seems like everyone is pretty cool here with each others opinions. For the most part no one is saying anything all that ridiculous, so it is pretty easy to be cool with small differences in opinion. 

 

Do I win the worst posts of the discussion?!

[USAFChief]

Do I win the worst posts of the discussion?!

It's not over yet. But you have a solid lead.

[drjim]

I think this article shows just how frickin' hard it is to rebuild pitching that had collapsed up and down the organization. It took until now to finally build up pitching depth going into a season. The idea that a couple of free agent signings (especially considering the options after 2012) and trading a few solid (but not elite) CFs would do the trick overnight seems a little ambitious. Doesn't quite work that way.

 

I personally look at it is this way, after 3 years of rebuild the Twins have rebuilt the farm system, have some actual pitching depth, have seen some young players emerge on to the mlb roster with others that will follow this year, are not saddled with many crippling contracts, have some payroll space.

 

To people who think he should be gone, which is fine as far as that is concerned, make two big mistakes. They vastly understate the problems of the franchise at the conclusion of 2011 and vastly overstate the ease in which a franchise can be rebuilt. I guess if Ryan was fired I wouldn't really care that much (though I think he should stay), but I'm not exactly convinced that a different GM would have brought them to a better place by this point.

[Brandon]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22944

 

Here is the rankings. I like a lot of those other teams top 10 guys 25 and under better than ours, especially some of the other teams guys have proven themselves at the majors and are younger than some of our prospects in the minors. Interesting to see where land in next years rankings. I think we might fall further down the list even. 

'

 

I just read the article.  They grade the Twins with the best farm system in the game and should be one of the best teams as soon as the talent comes up.  25 is an arbitrary number if we changed that to 22 and under or under 23 the Twins would be first or second on the list.