Article: Terry Ryan: Still Employed

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

I just read the article.  They grade the Twins with the best farm system in the game and should be one of the best teams as soon as the talent comes up.  25 is an arbitrary number if we changed that to 22 and under or under 23 the Twins would be first or second on the list. 

I see what you are saying, and I do not think looking at ANY age groups gives you a clear idea of the future. Looking at a teams minor league system alone though is even less useful than looking at a teams 25 and under players. I posted the article as reference and I just thought others would enjoy looking at it. I by no means feel that is the way to judge our future, like I mentioned earlier some teams will spend and hit on FA's and trades, be more or less healthy, and some teams will have better luck with their prospects panning out. 

 

I love what we have coming up and think we are in pretty good shape for the future, I just think that looking at prospects alone is ridiculous when there are already young studs producing in the majors for other teams that will have youth AND experience on their side in the future, while still being fairly cheap, or having trade value. I was just trying to bring in a more complete perspective of the future. That is all I was doing. I am an all out Twins homer too. I just like to look at things from several angles, and that was just not one I have seen others bringing into the mix, so I thought it would be fun to discuss.

Edited October 4, 2014 by ShouldaCouldaWoulda

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

It's not over yet. But you have a solid lead.

A simple "yes" would have been suffice Chief. I will have my GF review future posts to lessen the likeliness  of idiocy. 

[howeda7]

Terry Ryan should be out for a few reasons. Not the least of which is Bill Smith was his hand-picked successor. Yes, he made the mess, but he was the guy Terry groomed to take his place. Further, I refuse to believe the major moves made under Smith (Garza trade, Hardy trade, Nishi signing, etc.) were not run by 'consultant' Terry Ryan before the trigger was pulled.

[jokin]

Ha, I'm not trying to win anything. I'm not even really arguing here, I'm just trying to have a mature baseball discussion. Sometimes we aren't as tolerant as we could all be, but I think most of the threads so far this last week or so have been pretty mature.

 

Everything I post on this site is about performance and process, not about the people. Sometimes we forget that .....

 

Only "sometimes"?

[h2oface]

I don't understand why Nolasco and May are not included in the terrible decisions by Ryan.  Both are the direct result of the Terry Ryan genius.... Nolasco by free angency and May by trade of the last centerfielder at the time....... in fact, Worley should be in there, too.  It sure is a shame that Worley appears to have been totally mismanaged and coached, after his performance bookends in Pittsburgh and Philly (maybe the Pennsylvania factor?) Terry should be fired now, before the new manager is selected, and the new GM should get to decide that.  The second best thing that could happen now, is that Ryan picks the new manager, and then retires gracefully.

[Twins Fan From Afar]

I don't understand why Nolasco and May are not included in the terrible decisions by Ryan.  Both are the direct result of the Terry Ryan genius.... Nolasco by free angency and May by trade of the last centerfielder at the time....... in fact, Worley should be in there, too.  It sure is a shame that Worley appears to have been totally mismanaged and coached, after his performance bookends in Pittsburgh and Philly (maybe the Pennsylvania factor?) Terry should be fired now, before the new manager is selected, and the new GM should get to decide that.  The second best thing that could happen now, is that Ryan picks the new manager, and then retires gracefully.

 

Jury is very much out on May, Meyer, Nolasco.

[h2oface]

Jury is very much out on May, Meyer, Nolasco.

OK.  I just figure that anybody's performance to date counts.  Anything projected is something that a jury is not allowed to consider.  A jury can only consider something that happens.  What May did happened, and counts.  Meyer can't be considered yet. Years after Span has been helping the Nats, Meyer still hasn't happened.  Nolasco - yup, that 2014 performance really really happened.  All year it happened.  That is the thing about most things in baseball.  It all counts.

Edited October 4, 2014 by h2oface

[Twins Fan From Afar]

OK.  I just figure that anybody's performance to date counts.  Anything projected is something that a jury is not allowed to consider.  A jury can only consider something that happens.  What May did happened, and counts.  Meyer can't be considered yet. Years after Span has been helping the Nats, Meyer still hasn't happened.  Nolasco - yup, that 2014 performance really really happened.  All year it happened.  That is the thing about most things in baseball.  It all counts.

 

Fair enough. Guess I would say 1/4 of Nolasco happened, and probably like 2% of May's career. A little context is important.

[Twodogs]

I just read the article.  They grade the Twins with the best farm system in the game and should be one of the best teams as soon as the talent comes up.  25 is an arbitrary number if we changed that to 22 and under or under 23 the Twins would be first or second on the list. 

I see what you are saying, but the original poster makes a lot of sense when they mention the Marlins and the Cardnials and all of the talent that they already have playing in the bigs.  Part of that is often the Twins philosophy of keeping their young guys down to develop, whereas at least the Marlins didn't have much chioce but to bring the guys up and see if they can produce.  It seems that the Twins will continue to bring on guys like Schaffer, and guys like that that seems to impede the prospects road to the big club.  I think that the Twins are ready to shed all or most of the dead weight and they need to start considering bringing up the young guys to see if they can produce.  I remember they held Morneau down for an extra  year or so, because they had scrappy Doug Mienkiewich in the way.  Who by  the way pushed out David Ortiz who I think hit another 35 homers this year while Dougie is coaching A ball. 

 

In JR's defense, I feel that the scenario that I just described was a Tom Kelly and Ron Gardinhire ordeal and not really the fault of Ryan's.  TK thought that Ortiz swung like a slowpitch softball player, and Dougie was the epitome of Gardy's battling his tail off.  So when I see guys like Lirano doing a servicable job in Pittsburgh, not to mention Worley doing a better job in Pittsburgh than Pelfrey, or Swarzak or a slough of other rag arms that the Twins have drug out there on the hill, It occurs to me that Ryan had those guys in Minnesota and they were completely failing under the daily guidance of Gardy and Anderson.  Not to metion guys like Gomez, Hardy, bla, bla, bla, bla, it goes on and on.  It seems to me that Gardy was not getting the best out of the limited talent that he had; because by all accounts most of those guys are doing better now that they are on other teams than when they were with the Twins.  So maybe a new manager will get more out of the talent that is presented.  If the talent isn't there then it becomes JR's fault. 

 

JMO

[DocBauer]

Wow! We're kind of all over the place here aren't we?

 

I figured about time I tossed my 2cents worth in. I gotta say, I'm reading a lot of very intelligent opinions here, and I can't say I greatly disagree with anyone's opinion. All logical and well thought out. I mean...I even found myself agreeing with MIKE, and that just never happens. LOL

 

But to specifics...I am a known Gardy supporter that felt it was time. Not because he's a bad baseball guy, or has suddenly "lost it", but because I think the Twins are entering a new era, their third era since '87, and just need a new voice to lead a new charge. And to be honest, I think there was some fault with the way Gardenhire handled the final month or so in regard to playing and experimenting with some young talent. Ryan absolutely carries weight for the past 4 seasons, and brought about some of Gardy's downfall, and yet, it's not entirely is fault, IMO.

 

I grow tired of retrospect, but it exists regardless. 2010 was a great season for the Twins. 2011 was a disaster NOBODY saw coming. And yet, the Twins had an all time high payroll of almost $113M in place to replicate 2010 with hopes of improving and taking the next step. At the least, keeping the band together. I think it would be easy for any GM to expect some rebound the next season with injuries abated, make a couple moves, etc. You can argue and debate, yet the Twins were only one year removed from a 94 win seasons. The payroll dipped, but was still over $94M, third highest in Twins history.

 

I still believe, though it will never be admitted, that Ryan, the FO, scouts and coaching staff alike, felt in 2012 we slipped but had a shot if a few things fell right. In 2013, I think Ryan and company didn't want to tell fans and ticket holders there was no chance. But they'd make a couple moves, sell them, and hope for the best, knowing their best option was young talent and a few more moves in 2014 to get and keep everyone excited. Of course, it didn't work out that way.

 

Not making excuses, just painting a fair picture. I don't absolve Ryan for butchering the CF situation the past couple years, though I do applaud the May and Meyer deals as aggresive and future sighted.

[DocBauer]

(Tablet screwup)

 

Ryan is ultimately responsible for the talent presented to the manager. And yes, he bears some blame for that the last couple of seasons.

 

But his job also covers the minors, and those responsible to draft it, manage and coach it, even if he doesn't oversee selections of picks themselves. I'm even willing to give a pass, to a degree, with his cancer scare this year, and trying to be in charge while also passing off responsibility. His track record over the years, except for his first couple of seasons, has been outstanding. I do sometimes wonder if he realizes he's no longer the GM for a Metrodome team, but that seemed to be answered last offseason with the moves he made, and attempted to make. 2015 is sort of make or break for me. I don't expect the team to win the WS this season. But if he can make the right manager hire, make a couple quality moves, call me "re-convinced" we have the right guy still in charge.

[beckmt]

Ryan had to fix the mess Smith left.  Bill Smith's request was to spend more money to fix the problem he created.  It is easy to spend someone else's money. 

1.  Even if you offer the money the players have to take it and they have choices, getting a top starting pitcher is no sure thing.

2. We do not know what is asked for in trade, if you read some other east coast boards, 2-3 of their 5-10 prospects should be able to spring a top player to them, this is just not true.

3.  You have to sign good FA's to complement the minor league system, this was Kansas City's big issue over the last 30 years, good minor league system, but the holes where not addressed with FA signings.

4.  The judgment on Terry Ryan's second term will come in how fast the Twins can turn this around and I am guessing next year will be only slightly better, but we should start seeing the progress( more like 1999-2000) than the past few year.

5. You can never have too much pitching,  Anderson should have been gone a few years ago, that Pittsburg is fixing some of the Twins pitching that could not be fixed here was an embarrassment.

6.  Will see how this offseason goes,  Ryan has done a good job of fixing the base(Escobar, Santana, Shaffer, Vargas, Arica, May, Hughes).  Outside of possibly Santana and Hughes this now looks like the bottom end of a good major league club.  What is filled in above it will determine the final result.

[laloesch]

It is my opinion, and there is probably nothing that will ever change it, that Ryan left after 2007 because he didn't want to be known as the guy that traded Santana, didn't resign Hunter, and couldn't bring himself to give Mauer a huge contract.

 

I think he left Smith in a horrible position when he took over. And then after the disastrous 2011 season, Ryan comes riding in on his white horse to "clean up" the mess that he partially created.

 

I agree, the popular characterization that Ryan rode in and saved the day, aka cleaned up "Billy's mess" is not true AT ALL.  

 

Ryan was still with the Twins during Smith's tenure as GM, functioning as a scout.  In reality Terry Ryan was an assistant to Smith and okayed all his player acquisitions.  Completely inaccurate, that Ryan was somehow detached from the situation.  He really does bare a good junk of the responsibility for the mess we are in right now.   

 

But IMO Ryan's biggest mistake was trading Castillo (Santana's good friend) and POing Santana.  He also failed to discuss an extension with him prior to 2006 which was a huge mistake as well.  That's completely Terry's blunder.   The Hunter situation was similar.  No discussion of contract extensions until the 9th hour when it was too late.  The Twins need to lock up players a year or two before free agency because as soon as they see what they can get in  NY, Boston, LA, etc. they are gone. 

 

You wait they'll do the same thing with Hughes in 2 years.

Edited October 6, 2014 by laloesch

[drjim]

I agree, the popular characterization that Ryan rode in and saved the day, aka cleaned up "Billy's mess" is not true AT ALL.  

 

Ryan was still with the Twins during Smith's tenure as GM, functioning as a scout.  In reality Terry Ryan was an assistant to Smith and okayed all his player acquisitions.  Completely inaccurate, that Ryan was somehow detached from the situation.  He really does bare a good junk of the responsibility for the mess we are in right now.   

 

But IMO Ryan's biggest mistake was trading Castillo (Santana's good friend) and POing Santana.  He also failed to discuss an extension with him prior to 2006 which was a huge mistake as well.  That's completely Terry's blunder.   The Hunter situation was similar.  No discussion of contract extensions until the 9th hour when it was too late.  The Twins need to lock up players a year or two before free agency because as soon as they see what they can get in  NY, Boston, LA, etc. they are gone. 

 

You wait they'll do the same thing with Hughes in 2 years.

 

Does anyone have any proof of this assertion or is it just assumed?

 

There is a massive difference between staying in the organization and providing some recommendations versus OKing player acquisitions.

[Oxtung]

A few things wrong with this.  First, of the Twins best prospects only Sano and Polanco are Smith guys. 

 

I'm also sure it's fair to say that he's dong what any other GM would do with those picks.  The Astros have absolutely torpedo their drafts (and they've drafted above us in everyone). 

 

Finally getting back to this.  Let me reiterate that Ryan deserves credit for making good decisions on who he has drafted and who he has traded for but almost all those players can be linked directly to the Twins being terrible. Here is the breakdown of the Twins players and prospects (from Baseball America) under the age of 25.

 

Bill Smith players

Kyle Gibson

Danny Santana

Aaron Hicks

Kennys Vargas

Miguel Sano

Eddie Rosario

Jorge Polanco

 

Trades because Twins are bad

Trevor May

Alex Meyer

Eduardo Escobar

 

High draft picks because Twins are bad

Byron Buxton

Kohl Stewart

Nick Gordon

 

International FA's

Josmil Pinto

Oswaldo Arcia

Lewis Thorpe

 

Not top draft picks

JO Berrios

 

 

Once you take players and prospects Smith acquired and talent due to the Twins being terrible out of the equation you're left with a catcher that can't catch.  An outfielder that can't field.  An 18 year old pitcher with 70 innings at A-ball and Berrios, who admittedly is looking like a stud.  To be fair, Berrios was also a 1st round pick, so it's not exactly uncovering a hidden gem.

 

So again, Ryan deserves credit for hitting on his high draft picks, but he hasn't exactly done anything creative to bring talent to this organization.  If the Twins hire almost any GM instead of bringing Ryan back the young talent would look pretty much the same.  I guess I just don't believe that Ryan should get much applause for making basic moves that almost any other GM would make as well. 

[tobi0040]

Finally getting back to this.  Let me reiterate that Ryan deserves credit for making good decisions on who he has drafted and who he has traded for but almost all those players can be linked directly to the Twins being terrible. Here is the breakdown of the Twins players and prospects (from Baseball America) under the age of 25.

 

Bill Smith players

Kyle Gibson

Danny Santana

Aaron Hicks

Kennys Vargas

Miguel Sano

Eddie Rosario

Jorge Polanco

 

Trades because Twins are bad

Trevor May

Alex Meyer

Eduardo Escobar

 

High draft picks because Twins are bad

Byron Buxton

Kohl Stewart

Nick Gordon

 

International FA's

Josmil Pinto

Oswaldo Arcia

Lewis Thorpe

 

Not top draft picks

JO Berrios

 

 

Once you take players and prospects Smith acquired and talent due to the Twins being terrible out of the equation you're left with a catcher that can't catch.  An outfielder that can't field.  An 18 year old pitcher with 70 innings at A-ball and Berrios, who admittedly is looking like a stud.  To be fair, Berrios was also a 1st round pick, so it's not exactly uncovering a hidden gem.

 

So again, Ryan deserves credit for hitting on his high draft picks, but he hasn't exactly done anything creative to bring talent to this organization.  If the Twins hire almost any GM instead of bringing Ryan back the young talent would look pretty much the same.  I guess I just don't believe that Ryan should get much applause for making basic moves that almost any other GM would make as well. 

 

I think the Revere and Span trades were savvy and not neccesarily made because we were going to be bad.  Terry saw a market where only one good CF was on the market and 3-4 contenders thought they were a CF away.  I think those were great moves he deserves credit for.

 

The not high draft picks could add Burdi, Gonslaves, Walker, Rogers, Hicks, Turner, Garver, Swim,  Reed, and Murphy.  Some talent in there.

 

I think it is ironic that some are saying Ryan does not deserve credit for the Smith guys, others are saying Ryan deserves blame for how bad it got under Smith because Ryan had influence.  Both cannot be true. 

Edited October 6, 2014 by tobi0040

[drjim]

I think the Revere and Span trades were savvy and not neccesarily made because we were going to be bad.  Terry saw a market where only one good CF was on the market and 3-4 contenders thought they were a CF away.  I think those were great moves he deserves credit for.

 

The not high draft picks could add Burdi, Gonslaves, Walker, Rogers, Hicks, Turner, Garver, Swim,  Reed, and Murphy.  Some talent in there.

 

I think it is ironic that some are saying Ryan does not deserve credit for the Smith guys, others are saying Ryan deserves blame for how bad it got under Smith because Ryan had influence.  Both cannot be true. 

 

If you don't like Ryan of course it can be true. Good moves/picks when Ryan was GM don't count because they are under the direct supervision of someone else. Bad moves/results are a bad reflection on Ryan and count against him. Good moves by Bill Smith don't count. But bad moves under Smith do count against Ryan because Ryan was still in the organization and OKed every move that was made, especially the bad ones. Actual development doesn't count, only who was in charge when the player was acquired, unless it was Ryan, then it was the Scouting Director or draft position or something else that deserves the credit.

[ashbury]

Moderator's Note: this is heading down a path more like bickering than good discussion, with undercurrents of accusations of arguing in bad faith.  Please keep it civil.

[chopper0080]

As a fan, I don't want the labor, show me the baby.  Terry Ryan has failed to do that.  He has failed to bridge the gap between awful, and whenever the prospects arrive.  That is a problem.

 

There are some valid points in this arguement in many regards.

 

1-FA isn't the best way to build a long-term competitive team.  True.

 

2-Ryan has failed to consistently use FA to fill roster holes, and keep us competitive.  True.

 

3-Ryan's front office has drafted well (on paper) since he has taken over.  True.

 

4-Drafting at the top of the draft should be easy.  True.

 

5-The Twins have one of the best farm systems in baseball.  True.

 

6-Farm systems don't translate into big league success.  True.

 

What I find most amusing is what seems like the belief that you have to be terrible for multiple years to rebuild.  With free agency and revenue sharing, that just isn't true.  It is an old, and outdated concept of team construction.  If you aren't going to spend on the top players, then you can't be missing on the mid range guys, and then using a lack of talent as an excuse for losing.  If you create your own set of rules to operate by, then you deserve to be held to those.

 

Ryan doesn't want to hand out large long term FA contracts...fine.

 

Ryan doesn't want to spend to acquire top free agents...fine.

 

Ryan doesn't want to trade minor league talent for major league players...fine.

 

Ryan wants to keep under some arbitrary payroll number...fine.

 

I don't mind an organization having rules like these in place.  What I mind is when the organization and fans use those self imposed rules to provide an excuse when the team fails to be competitive for multiple years.  Ryan has failed to supply our fired manager with legitimate major league talent for 4 years now, and it has led to 4 losing seasons.  That is a fact, and it doesn't matter if it is because he is handcuffing himself with his own set of rules, or if he is just not doing it as good as the other teams out there.  Facts are the Ryan has been a failure to date in his second tenure.

[tobi0040]

As a fan, I don't want the labor, show me the baby.  Terry Ryan has failed to do that.  He has failed to bridge the gap between awful, and whenever the prospects arrive.  That is a problem.

 

There are some valid points in this arguement in many regards.

 

1-FA isn't the best way to build a long-term competitive team.  True.

 

2-Ryan has failed to consistently use FA to fill roster holes, and keep us competitive.  True.

 

3-Ryan's front office has drafted well (on paper) since he has taken over.  True.

 

4-Drafting at the top of the draft should be easy.  True.

 

5-The Twins have one of the best farm systems in baseball.  True.

 

6-Farm systems don't translate into big league success.  True.

 

What I find most amusing is what seems like the belief that you have to be terrible for multiple years to rebuild.  With free agency and revenue sharing, that just isn't true.  It is an old, and outdated concept of team construction.  If you aren't going to spend on the top players, then you can't be missing on the mid range guys, and then using a lack of talent as an excuse for losing.  If you create your own set of rules to operate by, then you deserve to be held to those.

 

Ryan doesn't want to hand out large long term FA contracts...fine.

 

Ryan doesn't want to spend to acquire top free agents...fine.

 

Ryan doesn't want to trade minor league talent for major league players...fine.

 

Ryan wants to keep under some arbitrary payroll number...fine.

 

I don't mind an organization having rules like these in place.  What I mind is when the organization and fans use those self imposed rules to provide an excuse when the team fails to be competitive for multiple years.  Ryan has failed to supply our fired manager with legitimate major league talent for 4 years now, and it has led to 4 losing seasons.  That is a fact, and it doesn't matter if it is because he is handcuffing himself with his own set of rules, or if he is just not doing it as good as the other teams out there.  Facts are the Ryan has been a failure to date in his second tenure.

 

Trust me, I get your sense of frustration and urgency.  But I think it is too early to conclude he has been a failure.  I am going to make two assumptions that are mine based on belief alone, with no way to prove it.

 

1- Ownership was unwilling to invest in free agents for the 2012 and 2013 seasons and wanted payroll to come down while we rebuild.

 

2 - Terry was brought in to bring back a sustainable winning team.

 

Given those, the only way Terry could have sped this rebuild up was by drafting college juniors and seniors over high school players. These typically get to the majors quicker but in many cases have lower ceilings.  I think we will be served better off in the long run by taking Buxton, Kohl, Berrios, and Gordon over lower ceiling college players.

[bird]

I realize that everyone is all jacked up about the Twins minor league prospects, and that we have been ranked top 3 in that area the past few years, but that is deceiving if you are trying to gauge of teams future. Prospect rankings list may not be the best way to look at a teams future, as it does not account for the major league lineups. Several teams best young players advance to the majors quickly, and some teams are more aggressive about this than others. I always kind of wondered why I never hear organizations being discussed in this fashion.

 

I came across some under 26 and under 25 rankings after doing some research. These seem like a much better way of assessing a teams true future talent. Just because a really young stud has reached the majors does not mean he should not be accounted for in that teams future. Those players should be considered along with the minor league system. 

 

Baseball Prospectus had the Twins as the best minor league system this year. However, the Twins 25 and under ranking was 13th in the league. Guys that have made the majors should actually be weighted more heavily when forecasting a teams future. We are just average in the under 25 departments because all of our players are prospects, which mean less reliable talent. 

 

Something to consider here that is rarely discussed when talking about the Twins bright future. I wonder how many of those 12 teams ranked above the Twins are to be more likely to supplement those future teams with spending on FA's and resigning FA eligible in-house talent? I know this is a more pessimistic way to look at our future, but I am just trying to be realistic in our constant hanging on to the hope of being save by the young prospects.

It only makes sense that a proper analysis and assessment of a club's future takes into account young talent that's in place as well as elite talent that's on the way. I would be inclined to think that BP's ranking is fairly reasonable. However, I'll be very surprised if the Twins didn't shoot up the rankings in the next couple of years, especially if Santana, Arcia, and Vargas turn out not to be flukes and Sano and Buxton   become the players they are projected to become.

 

Only time will tell, but I remain hopeful that the Twins, when they assess where they're at this fall as they do each fall, determine that the timing is right to make what I believe is now only a handful of very doable moves to put themselves into position to once again field a sustainably excellent team as early as 2016. A two-way corner OF, a #2-3 starter, and possibly a young catcher would be what I have in mind.

[Kwak]

"...sustainable winning team."  What a loaded statement, vague to the point of meaningless.  Given 81 wins is breakeven "sustainable" could mean +/- 10 wins.from breakeven.  It also implies that "the plan" isn't to assemble a championship team but rather a team that "bobs the surface". Was that the reason cited for the massive public subsidy to build a new stadium?--and said stadium to nearly triple the price of tickets as a bonus? I don't remember that as being cited as a reason to build TF.

[drjim]

As a fan, I don't want the labor, show me the baby.  Terry Ryan has failed to do that.  He has failed to bridge the gap between awful, and whenever the prospects arrive.  That is a problem.

 

There are some valid points in this arguement in many regards.

 

1-FA isn't the best way to build a long-term competitive team.  True.

 

2-Ryan has failed to consistently use FA to fill roster holes, and keep us competitive.  True.

 

3-Ryan's front office has drafted well (on paper) since he has taken over.  True.

 

4-Drafting at the top of the draft should be easy.  True.

 

5-The Twins have one of the best farm systems in baseball.  True.

 

6-Farm systems don't translate into big league success.  True.

 

What I find most amusing is what seems like the belief that you have to be terrible for multiple years to rebuild.  With free agency and revenue sharing, that just isn't true.  It is an old, and outdated concept of team construction.  If you aren't going to spend on the top players, then you can't be missing on the mid range guys, and then using a lack of talent as an excuse for losing.  If you create your own set of rules to operate by, then you deserve to be held to those.

 

Ryan doesn't want to hand out large long term FA contracts...fine.

 

Ryan doesn't want to spend to acquire top free agents...fine.

 

Ryan doesn't want to trade minor league talent for major league players...fine.

 

Ryan wants to keep under some arbitrary payroll number...fine.

 

I don't mind an organization having rules like these in place.  What I mind is when the organization and fans use those self imposed rules to provide an excuse when the team fails to be competitive for multiple years.  Ryan has failed to supply our fired manager with legitimate major league talent for 4 years now, and it has led to 4 losing seasons.  That is a fact, and it doesn't matter if it is because he is handcuffing himself with his own set of rules, or if he is just not doing it as good as the other teams out there.  Facts are the Ryan has been a failure to date in his second tenure.

 

I think the bolded part is the heart of this debate. You make it seem like a team doesn't need a few years to rebuild. Are you sure? Can you think of teams that drop as much as the Twins in 2011 and come right back to sustained competitiveness? That is an assertion that seems to fly in the face of history of the past 20 years. Teams with significantly higher payrolls than the Twins might be able to shorten the cycle or cover up mistakes, but middle market teams will generally go in cycles. Some pain now for hopefully sustained success in the future. Throwing money at the issue might result in an emotionally satisfying more wins in the short term, but no more guarantee of success in the short term and certainly the long term.

[SwainZag]

As a fan, I don't want the labor, show me the baby.  Terry Ryan has failed to do that.  He has failed to bridge the gap between awful, and whenever the prospects arrive.  That is a problem.

 

There are some valid points in this arguement in many regards.

 

1-FA isn't the best way to build a long-term competitive team.  True.

 

2-Ryan has failed to consistently use FA to fill roster holes, and keep us competitive.  True.

 

3-Ryan's front office has drafted well (on paper) since he has taken over.  True.

 

4-Drafting at the top of the draft should be easy.  True.

 

5-The Twins have one of the best farm systems in baseball.  True.

 

6-Farm systems don't translate into big league success.  True.

 

What I find most amusing is what seems like the belief that you have to be terrible for multiple years to rebuild.  With free agency and revenue sharing, that just isn't true.  It is an old, and outdated concept of team construction.  If you aren't going to spend on the top players, then you can't be missing on the mid range guys, and then using a lack of talent as an excuse for losing.  If you create your own set of rules to operate by, then you deserve to be held to those.

 

Ryan doesn't want to hand out large long term FA contracts...fine.

 

Ryan doesn't want to spend to acquire top free agents...fine.

 

Ryan doesn't want to trade minor league talent for major league players...fine.

 

Ryan wants to keep under some arbitrary payroll number...fine.

 

I don't mind an organization having rules like these in place.  What I mind is when the organization and fans use those self imposed rules to provide an excuse when the team fails to be competitive for multiple years.  Ryan has failed to supply our fired manager with legitimate major league talent for 4 years now, and it has led to 4 losing seasons.  That is a fact, and it doesn't matter if it is because he is handcuffing himself with his own set of rules, or if he is just not doing it as good as the other teams out there.  Facts are the Ryan has been a failure to date in his second tenure.

 

I don't think anyone here thinks that a rebuild absolutely has to take being bad for multiple years, but at the place this franchise was after the 2011 season, I don't see how that team bounces back any quicker.  I think many teams have proved that tossing money at free agents isn't how you build a sustained winner.

 

This goes back to a point that has been beaten into ground that the drafting failures of the Twins between 2005-2009.  Missed 1st round picks, not many gems found in later rounds, etc left the team lacking at the upper levels for young talent.  

 

I think there are just as many people who think you can instantly rebuild a winner than there are people who think it takes a few years to rebuild.  I for one like the way they are rebuilding.  You could argue that the Twins could have spent an extra 15M per year for the last 3 years and had 5-8 more wins.  It would leave us with 3 straight 80+ loss seasons without the the high draft picks.  A team who still lost more than they won, fans still bitching and the quality of draft prospects not as good.

[drjim]

"...sustainable winning team."  What a loaded statement, vague to the point of meaningless.  Given 81 wins is breakeven "sustainable" could mean +/- 10 wins.from breakeven.  It also implies that "the plan" isn't to assemble a championship team but rather a team that "bobs the surface". Was that the reason cited for the massive public subsidy to build a new stadium?--and said stadium to nearly triple the price of tickets as a bonus? I don't remember that as being cited as a reason to build TF.

 

It implies no such thing. Sustainable success doesn't mean to be .500, it means to go into the majority of seasons with a realistic shot to compete for a playoff berth. Once in the playoffs good things can happen.

[tobi0040]

It implies no such thing. Sustainable success doesn't mean to be .500, it means to go into the majority of seasons with a realistic shot to compete for a playoff berth. Once in the playoffs good things can happen.

 

DrJim,

 

That is exactly what I meant, thank you.  A sustainable drive at competing for the playoffs.  What that means in Twins speak is you need a young core of players that are cost controlled for several years.  Given where this team was in 2011 signing three free agents and bringing payroll up to the max range was not going to get us where we wanted to go. We needed a longer term view that was going to take time.

[chopper0080]

I think the bolded part is the heart of this debate. You make it seem like a team doesn't need a few years to rebuild. Are you sure? Can you think of teams that drop as much as the Twins in 2011 and come right back to sustained competitiveness? That is an assertion that seems to fly in the face of history of the past 20 years. Teams with significantly higher payrolls than the Twins might be able to shorten the cycle or cover up mistakes, but middle market teams will generally go in cycles. Some pain now for hopefully sustained success in the future. Throwing money at the issue might result in an emotionally satisfying more wins in the short term, but no more guarantee of success in the short term and certainly the long term.

 

Ok, so if I had the blueprint, I would be working in the majors, but here is my opinion.

 

Any time a team chooses to take a step back or has to work transitioning from poor contracts or a poor front office, there will naturally be a step back.  It can legitimately take a year or two.  Here is where I have issues with the Twins.

 

One: They weren't moving on from bad contracts.  When people cite payroll, they cite a payroll decrease or less spending.  That is a team driven choice.  They don't get credit for this IMO because it is self-imposed.

 

Two: What pieces have they added?  In four years, what players has the team added other than drafted/signed prospects?  Phil Hughes.  In four years this team has added one quality MLB player.  They have traded away two decent MLB CFs in that time frame as well, though it was for mid level / high talent prospects.  IMO, that is pure laziness.  Not only have this team not added high profile free agents, we have not even been able so sign average players who other teams want to trade for.  Was Nelson Cruz really outside of our price range?  Ervin Santana?  Scott Kazmir?  Jason Vargas?  That is just 2013.  Melky Cabrera?  Mike Napoli? Stephen Drew?  These are just the inexpensive ones.

 

Seriously, how can this not be considered a failure?  We have added one quality player in 4 years.  We have consistently lost MLB talent and failed to replace it.  Where is the progress?  In the farm system? 

 

We have literally sold our cow for a bag of magic beans, and are waiting for them to sprout a beanstalk.  That is not how a professional sports franchise should be run.

[chopper0080]

Trust me, I get your sense of frustration and urgency.  But I think it is too early to conclude he has been a failure.  I am going to make two assumptions that are mine based on belief alone, with no way to prove it.

 

1- Ownership was unwilling to invest in free agents for the 2012 and 2013 seasons and wanted payroll to come down while we rebuild.

 

2 - Terry was brought in to bring back a sustainable winning team.

 

Given those, the only way Terry could have sped this rebuild up was by drafting college juniors and seniors over high school players. These typically get to the majors quicker but in many cases have lower ceilings.  I think we will be served better off in the long run by taking Buxton, Kohl, Berrios, and Gordon over lower ceiling college players.

 

1-Self imposed, and it doesn't excuse Ryan.  He took the job knowing that is what he was walking into.

 

2-The only thing that we have which is sustainable is 90 loss seasons.  Again, it should never be free agency OR farm system.  There is a happy medium which the have ignored.  It includes adding quality MLB players, while drafting quality prospects.

 

Buxton, Kohl, Berrios, and Gordon magic beans right now.  They have done nothing.  Yet none of these players forced Ryan into putting players like Parmalee, Shafer, Correia, Pelrey, Marquis, and Capps, on the field not to mention other awful players.

[SwainZag]

Ok, so if I had the blueprint, I would be working in the majors, but here is my opinion.

 

Any time a team chooses to take a step back or has to work transitioning from poor contracts or a poor front office, there will naturally be a step back.  It can legitimately take a year or two.  Here is where I have issues with the Twins.

 

One: They weren't moving on from bad contracts.  When people cite payroll, they cite a payroll decrease or less spending.  That is a team driven choice.  They don't get credit for this IMO because it is self-imposed.

 

Two: What pieces have they added?  In four years, what players has the team added other than drafted/signed prospects?  Phil Hughes.  In four years this team has added one quality MLB player.  They have traded away two decent MLB CFs in that time frame as well, though it was for mid level / high talent prospects.  IMO, that is pure laziness.  Not only have this team not added high profile free agents, we have not even been able so sign average players who other teams want to trade for.  Was Nelson Cruz really outside of our price range?  Ervin Santana?  Scott Kazmir?  Jason Vargas?  That is just 2013.  Melky Cabrera?  Mike Napoli? Stephen Drew?  These are just the inexpensive ones.

 

Seriously, how can this not be considered a failure?  We have added one quality player in 4 years.  We have consistently lost MLB talent and failed to replace it.  Where is the progress?  In the farm system? 

 

We have literally sold our cow for a bag of magic beans, and are waiting for them to sprout a beanstalk.  That is not how a professional sports franchise should be run.

 

I think when most team's decide they are going to rebuild, it isn't coming off a division title.  I will say there are probably very little people who will point to the off season after 2010 and say.....well great run guys, let's rebuild this thing.  The 2011 team had a $112.7M payroll.  I could go into how everyone regressed and only 3 regulars played in 100+ games or how Mauer and Morneau both missed more than half the season or how the bad Liriano showed up and Pavano aged quickly.  Nishi was a bust.  Nathan wasn't the same coming off of injury and Baker would only start 21 games.  2011 was a complete disaster in every way.  So much hope...turned to rubble.

 

High payroll, terrible results, a bad farm club.  Not a great starting point 2012 going forward.

 

You cite they have signed 1 solid free agent.  How about Josh Willingham? Kurt Susuki?  Ricky Nolasco?

 

What players have they lost in the last 3 seasons for nothing?  You can go back to Gomez and Hardy, everyone will agree those were mistakes, everyone will admit it.

 

Every player you listed was a 2013 player.  Instead of adding them they added Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolasco and Kurt Susuki.  2 of 3 of those were excellent signings.  Was it a mistake not to grab an OF? Probably.

 

Comparing waiting for prospects to bloom as "magic beans into a beanstalk" is pretty laughable.  I think the fact that people think the position they were in after the 2011 season should be some magical turn around in 1-2 seasons back into a contender is funny to me.  They put themselves into that position, but a lot things along they way didn't bounce their way for us to get to this point.

[tobi0040]

Ok, so if I had the blueprint, I would be working in the majors, but here is my opinion.

 

Any time a team chooses to take a step back or has to work transitioning from poor contracts or a poor front office, there will naturally be a step back.  It can legitimately take a year or two.  Here is where I have issues with the Twins.

 

One: They weren't moving on from bad contracts.  When people cite payroll, they cite a payroll decrease or less spending.  That is a team driven choice.  They don't get credit for this IMO because it is self-imposed.

 

Two: What pieces have they added?  In four years, what players has the team added other than drafted/signed prospects?  Phil Hughes.  In four years this team has added one quality MLB player.  They have traded away two decent MLB CFs in that time frame as well, though it was for mid level / high talent prospects.  IMO, that is pure laziness.  Not only have this team not added high profile free agents, we have not even been able so sign average players who other teams want to trade for.  Was Nelson Cruz really outside of our price range?  Ervin Santana?  Scott Kazmir?  Jason Vargas?  That is just 2013.  Melky Cabrera?  Mike Napoli? Stephen Drew?  These are just the inexpensive ones.

 

Seriously, how can this not be considered a failure?  We have added one quality player in 4 years.  We have consistently lost MLB talent and failed to replace it.  Where is the progress?  In the farm system? 

 

We have literally sold our cow for a bag of magic beans, and are waiting for them to sprout a beanstalk.  That is not how a professional sports franchise should be run.

 

We had an $85M payroll and won 70 games.

 

Here is the relevant data on the guys you listed:

 

Cruz                 4.7 WAR    $14M

Vargas             2.4 WAR     $9M

Kazmir              1.7 WAR    $11M

Drew                  -.3 WAR    $10M

Ervin                   1.2 WAR   $14M

Napoli                 3.2 WAR    $16M

 

Terry Ryan could have NOT signed Pelfrey and Nolasco, payroll would have been $68M.  Then signed every one of these guys.    We would have won 83 games and had a payroll of $142M. Sometimes folding is the right move.  Has it been a long frustrating four years?  Yes....but we were that far away.

 

As painful as this has been, I would rather have 70 wins with a payroll starting in the 60-70M range, some wiggle room to add and young players playing than an 83-81 team with a payroll at 142M, young guys blocked all over the place, way over our cap and dialing it down.

Edited October 7, 2014 by tobi0040