Article: Terry Ryan: Still Employed

[Twins Fan From Afar]

Ron Gardenhire took the fall yesterday for four seasons of disgusting baseball. That decision was correct. Baseball is a business. And lately, business hasn't been good for the Twins. After the press conference, I was left thinking, "Well, that was pretty good as far as those things go. Very Minnesotan, really. But why the hell does Terry Ryan still have a job?" And it's still bothering me today.2014

Kevin Correia. 23 starts. 4.94 ERA.

Johan Pino. 11 starts. 5.07 ERA.

Sam Deduno. 8 starts. 4.6 ERA.

Anthony Swarzak. 4 starts. 4.6 ERA.

Logan Darnell. 4 starts. 7.13 ERA.

Mike Pelfrey. 5 starts. 7.99 ERA.

Tommy Milone. 5 starts. 7.03 ERA.

Kris Johnson. 3 starts. 4.73 ERA.

 

2013

Mike Pelfrey. 29 starts. 5.19 ERA.

Scott Diamond. 24 starts. 5.43 ERA.

Pedro Hernandez. 12 starts. 6.83 ERA.

Liam Hendriks. 8 starts. 6.85 ERA.

PJ Walters. 8 starts. 5.95 ERA.

Cole De Vries. 2 starts. 10.80 ERA.

 

2012

Nick Blackburn. 19 starts. 7.39 ERA.

Liam Hendriks. 16 starts. 5.59 ERA.

Anthony Swarzak. 5 starts. 5.03 ERA.

Carl Pavano. 11 starts. 6.00 ERA.

PJ Walters. 12 starts. 5.69 ERA.

Jason Marquis. 7 starts. 8.47 ERA.

Esmerling Vasquez. 6 starts. 5.68 ERA.

 

As Gardy and Ryan both noted, the reason the manager got canned is because the team didn't win enough games. For sure, Gardy was a contributor to that. Guys were played out of position, he refused to platoon players, the Twins are among the least likely teams to shift defensively, he used his closer in a very limited, sometimes nonsensical role, and I have huge concerns about his ability to handle player injuries. Those are just a few things, though. Sure, maybe those decisions cost the Twins three, four, five games a year. Maybe more. Maybe less. Tough to tell. But the point is, a manager's role in the playing of the game itself is limited.

 

I keep going back to Terry Ryan. Gardy's job was not to set the roster; it was to play the players on the roster, be the "field manager." Take a look at the motley crew of pitchers, games started and ERAs that I listed above (note: for guys that both started and relieved, I just used their combined ERA -- but you get the picture. Note also, I didn't include guys like Trevor May or Ricky Nolasco, who were bad this season but should improve -- there's a difference between a prospect like May learning the big leagues, or a veteran like Nolasco having a career-awful year, and Cole De Vries.). For 2012, that list accounts for 76/162 starts; for 2013 it was 83 starts; and for 2014 it was 63 starts. Those are huge chunks of the season where the Twins were trotting out starting pitchers, and sometimes relievers masked as starters, who gave the team little chance to win. That failure is not on Ron Gardenhire. There's no way that Gardy said, after a bunch of awful starts, "Terry, I just know Jason Marquis is gonna turn the corner. Give him more time." Or, "Pedro Hernandez -- I need that guy starting right now!" Are you kidding?!?!

 

I'm sure Gardy lost tons of sleep over his team's pathetic starting pitching, which, incidentally, continually wore down what may have been decent bullpens. Yes, Gardy defends his players publicly, but what manager wouldn't want great starting pitching? What manager wouldn't beg his general manager for help as his team gets shelled every night?

 

I know what you're thinking: I've completely forgotten the part of the narrative where Bill Smith ruined the organization and Terry Ryan is rebuilding it, and where Ryan is one of the best baseball minds out there. But if there's one thing Ryan can be faulted for, it's failing to draft/develop/acquire better-than-average starting pitching -- and this goes back quite some time, long before Bill Smith. A team can acquire players via the draft, the Rule 5 draft, trade, international signing, and by the free agent route. The Twins have always needed better starting pitching. For the love of God, Brian Duensing started playoff games! Ryan, by and large, has failed to get his manager good pitching. The team, understandably, is reluctant to part with prospects. The best prospects are just now beginning to get to the majors--note that the Twins did not draft May or Alex Meyer-- and it wasn't until last off-season that Ryan went out on the free agent market to spend real money. Too little. Too late. For Gardy, at least.

 

Look again at that list. 76 starts. 83 starts. 63 starts. Just for fun, imagine that, in just 20 of those starts each year, the Twins had had a starting pitcher who could go six innings and give you a 3.5 or 4.0 ERA. I'm not even talking about a superstar. Just a better-than-average pitcher. Might the Twins win half those games? Perhaps. Imagine what another 10 wins would have made you think about the Twins' 2014 season. 80 wins and 82 losses sounds a hell of a lot better than 70-92.

 

In the end, Gardy had to go. He was past his prime, the Twins have a bunch of young guys coming up, and sometimes change for the sake of change is reason enough. But I can't get over the feeling that Ryan somehow is coming off unscathed in this mess, as if he has life-time tenure, when in reality the Twins' record is as much a reflection on him as it is on Gardy.

 

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[Thrylos]

There is absolutely no excuse for Ryan to be there.  The other thing you have to consider is that Ryan is not the only one responsible for this list.  Gardenhire and Anderson pulled for a lot of those players to start, plus are responsible for some of them performing as they did.  Sam Deduno is a great example of the former while Vance Worley is a great example of the latter. 

[Mike Sixel]

80% of the starting pitching last year was FA or the best SP they've graduated in years, and they were the worst SP staff in baseball.

 

60% were FA that Ryan signed. 

 

According to all the former front office people on line, you judge a GM by trades, FA signings, and overall results (not the draft, that's the scouting director, though that person is hired by the GM.....).

 

They traded two starting CF, and had no one to replace them.

They signed 3 FA SP, and were the worst.

They signed Kubel and Bartlett and put them on the roster.

They keep thinking Hicks can play, with no backup plan at all.

Their OF consisted mostly of infielders or AAA guys the last two years.

 

Other than losing a lot by fielding a terrible team, so they are more likely to draft well, what has this GM done to really make the team better?

 

Don't forget, the reason there are no players to pay right now, is that no one acquired in Ryan's last tenure was good enough to make the roster and stick and earn big bucks......

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

"Guys were played out of position, he refused to platoon players, the Twins are among the least likely teams to shift defensively, he used his closer in a very limited, sometimes nonsensical role"

 

This. We need to do something about this. I just posted on the forum about this, right before I read this. 

 

The Twins need to be near the top of the league at advanced statistics research for both team makeup through free agency, trade, and drafts, but also for in game decisions. We also need a staff not only willing to use these stats, but realizes that it is beneficial to. 

 

I don't trust Ryan to use advanced stats, and clearly Gardy didn't care about them.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Ryan and Smith seemed to have put together a nice crop of young talent.. putting in place a new coaching staff seemed like a minimum requirement. Pohlads and Ryan now must start thinking about a successor GM, in my opinion. Pohlads don't seem to be the types to hire someone cold off the street (so to speak) so I assume would want that person already in the organization for when the time comes.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

Dumb Stubborn. Sorry, I was by no means trying to be a bully or hurt anyones feelings about Gardy. Both Gardy and Ryan probably have higher intelligence levels than I do, and I genuinely have always thought Gardy is a great guy and would love to have a beer with him, but he seems more suited for 3B coach role or something along that lines.

 

I do not have a clue how much they use advanced statistics, but there definitely isn't any articles our there claiming the Twins are doing a great job in this area. When using the word dumb, I only meant it in terms of using shifts/shades, platoons, etc, which IS clear he did not use nearly enough. 

[Winston Smith]

To be clear I wasn't a Bill Smith fan. However, one thing he did was try to win and spent the money and made the trades to do that.

 

Most of his bad trades had Gardy's fingerprints all over them, imo. Blaming Smith also fails to put any blame on the scouts and player evaluation guys that ok'd them and Terry still had an office down the hall and was involved. Smith was and is a money guy so all his trades he had to rely on the same guys that are still in Twins system scouting, etc.

 

Except for the last year, which most people blame on injuries, the Smith years look pretty good right now. Having said that I don't want him back!!

[Kwak]

To be clear I wasn't a Bill Smith fan. However, one thing he did was try to win and spent the money and made the trades to do that.

 

Most of his bad trades had Gardy's fingerprints all over them, imo. Blaming Smith also fails to put any blame on the scouts and player evaluation guys that ok'd them and Terry still had an office down the hall and was involved. Smith was and is a money guy so all his trades he had to rely on the same guys that are still in Twins system scouting, etc.

 

Except for the last year, which most people blame on injuries, the Smith years look pretty good right now. Having said that I don't want him back!!

Amen.  Plus, as noted above the Personnel Staff (the group that is responsible for the draft) has had so few positive results--yet none of them got fired ever. I believe Smith's job was to cut payroll and rebuild to win in the future (like '10).  The fact that '08 and '09 went to game #163 was completely unexpected--basically to the point of amazing.  Smith got axed because he didn't make massive cuts for '11 and that basically everyone else in the Twins (apparently) really disliked him.  Note the lack of outpouring in his defense or the mention of three successful years. 

This tome in defense of Gardenhire ignores that his fingerprints are all over this mess, as well as the utter collaspes of team performances past the ASGs. 

[Brandon]

Terry Ryan is a good GM.  There is no need to let him go.  How many bad contracts has he hindered the club with since he has been here?  (the bad multi year contracts are Joe Mays and the first year of Nolasco deal and Pelfry) That's a pretty low rate of failure compared to other GM's.  (Note I do think Nolasco will rebound and be a solid 12-15 game winner the next 3 years averaging 190-210 innings per season.)  We have a deep system and flexibility moving forward.  This was a rebuilding year.

 

As far as Gardenhire, He's a good manager who has his faults.  No platooning, too role defined and routine oriented.  and Rick Anderson is probably why Gardy is gone but he does do a good job of keeping the team together.  I don't think he necessarily needed to go but the season ticket holders demanded it and for the first time since I followed the Twins, the Pohlads caved to pier pressure and Gardy is out.  now it could be that management wants a different voice moving forward but they need to go outside the organization for that.  Putting a Minnesotan who bailed on the team in 2002 because of the threat of contraction doesn't seem like the person I would want to run a team as Molitor lacks loyalty in that respect.

[Mike Sixel]

If you never sign players for big money, as a philosophy, it is pretty hard to tie up the team with bad contracts. Who cares if he spends too much money, other than the Pohlads?

 

They are now on year 4 of 90+ losses, and somehow that's not on Ryan at all? I'm. Baffled.

[powrwrap]

I agree that Ryan should have been broomed along with Gardenhire. You hit all the right reasons but forgot the problem with the outfield.

 

In order to atone for his many mistakes with the starting pitching (which you nailed) he traded away two competent CFer's, Span and Revere, for SP. Ryan put the team in a position to need to rely on Aaron Hicks to become a good player and he didn't.Then he put Mastroianni on waivers and when Hicks failed he had to trade for Sam Fuld. Then he put the SS of the future, Santana, in CF. Centerfield was a mess and has been for 2 years now.

 

The rest of the outfield was manned by defensive tortoises--Willingham, Parmelee, Kubel, Arcia, or guys playing out of position--Santana, Escobar, and to a lesser extent, Herrmann. 

 

So Ryan has bungled the starting pitching and the outfield. Let's not forget the decision to put Jason Bartlett on the squad.

 

The reason he's still got his job is because the Twins have some highly touted prospects, which Ryan was responsible for drafting and/or trading to get. If they don't pan out, the Twins could be the next Kansas City or Chicago Cubs, constantly rebuilding and missing the playoffs for decades.

[gunnarthor]

The idea that Ryan left the cupboard bare isn't completely true.  When he left, the Twins had a pretty young nucleus of talent in the majors and 4 guys in BA top 100.

 

The idea that the Twins had bad pitching under Ryan is also demonstratively false.  In fact, the knock on Ryan used to be that he couldn't draft hitters.  From 2000-2007, the Twins were 3rd in all of baseball in pitching WAR with only the Red Sox and Yankees above them. 

 

Lastly,  we played out this game last year when we constantly updated the pitching FA targets during the season.  Correia was among the best.  The reality that fans don't want to hear is that rebuilds take time, rebuilding through FA is a bad idea, all teams go through these cycles and Ryan has demonstrated the ability to rebuild and keep those windows open longer than most GMs. 

[Linus]

GMs need to be judged over a much longer time frame than managers.  Their main responsibilities (like a farm system) are all things that take time.  Its too early to cast judgment on Ryan's second tenure.

 

I liked Gardy as a person.  However, I'm sure we can find another manager that will do equally well or better.  I absolutely don't feel that way about Ryan - chances of finding someone better to guide this franchise is pretty low.

 

And if we are going to rip on the free agent signings, I think we also need to recognize that Hughes and Suzuki were two of the best signings and many of the pitchers TD posters were clamoring for Ryan passed on and avoided a landmine.

[Mike Sixel]

GMs need to be judged over a much longer time frame than managers.  Their main responsibilities (like a farm system) are all things that take time.  Its too early to cast judgment on Ryan's second tenure.

 

I liked Gardy as a person.  However, I'm sure we can find another manager that will do equally well or better.  I absolutely don't feel that way about Ryan - chances of finding someone better to guide this franchise is pretty low.

 

And if we are going to rip on the free agent signings, I think we also need to recognize that Hughes and Suzuki were two of the best signings and many of the pitchers TD posters were clamoring for Ryan passed on and avoided a landmine.

 

How many years of 90 + loss seasons before I can judge him at all?

[Linus]

How many years of 90 + loss seasons before I can judge him at all?

Not going there with you Mike (its your favorite question).  Plus, GMs get graded on many things beside wins and losses.

[Mike Sixel]

It seems unfair to say "Its too early to cast judgment on Ryan's second tenure." without saying what isn't too early, doesn't it?

[Kwak]

Not going there with you Mike (its your favorite question).  Plus, GMs get graded on many things beside wins and losses.

+1.

Things like profit, cost control, making the owner happy, etc.

[Linus]

It seems unfair to say "Its too early to cast judgment on Ryan's second tenure." without saying what isn't too early, doesn't it?

I'm not sure what is "unfair" - everyone will have their own opinion on your question and my answer would include "it depends on a whole bunch of factors".

 

You would like to judge him after one poor season I am guessing and want him fired.  That's fine - not the way I look at it.

[Mike Sixel]

It has been more than 1 poor season, hasn't it? I wouldn't fire someone after 1 poor season. That's my question, how many poor seasons does it take?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Thanks Andrew.  I've been saying something like this across various threads this week, and it's nice to hear it articulated so well by a more prominent TD voice.

 

Gardy may have been posting ~66 win seasons recently, but there's really no question he's been given ~66 win talent the last few years too (TR admitted as much after 2013).  TR is going to have to be accountable for that sooner or later, and I'm still not entirely sure why Gardy was accountable first, rather than both together.

[SarasotaBill]

Since Ryan has come back, the Twins have drafted power arms instead of control/finesse pitchers, made the May & Meyer trades, and built the team to be good after a few years,

The Twins were a mess when Ryan came back.

The Twins have the pieces and top prospects to be good from 2016 to 2022.

[Linus]

It has been more than 1 poor season, hasn't it? I wouldn't fire someone after 1 poor season. That's my question, how many poor seasons does it take?

OK - since you don't seem to grasp the answers that I have already provided, I'll try again.

 

How many 90+ loss seasons: 7.  There, now you have to wait at least 3 more years before you ask the question again.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The idea that Ryan left the cupboard bare isn't completely true.  When he left, the Twins had a pretty young nucleus of talent in the majors and 4 guys in BA top 100.

Not sure where you are getting "4 guys in BA top 100".  BA's list for 2008 only includes 3 Twins, the top two of whom were acquired in the Santana trade (Guerra at #35 and Gomez at #52), plus Blackburn at #56 oddly.  That was Blackburn's only top 100 ranking in 6 years in the minors too.

[gunnarthor]

Not sure where you are getting "4 guys in BA top 100".  BA's list for 2008 only includes 3 Twins, the top two of whom were acquired in the Santana trade (Guerra at #35 and Gomez at #52), plus Blackburn at #56 oddly.  That was Blackburn's only top 100 ranking in 6 years in the minors too.

I was using the 07 list - the 08 list is made up of guys that Smith, the new GM, added.  Smith (for many reasons) never was able to get the farm system back to where Ryan left it.  The 07 list had 4 guys, the 06 list had 5, etc. 

 

But the idea that Ryan left the cupboard bare isn't true. We had a well stocked system his last year with us and a lot of recently well regarded graduates. 

[Mike Sixel]

Who was on the 07 list? Who was on the 06 list, and did they graduate to the Twins?

 

The guys on the 08 list doesn't include anyone from 07, or they graduated? 

 

Two guys on the 08 list in the top 52 were acquired by Bill Smith for a guy EVERYONE knew would not sign here. Sounds like a trade Ryan would be lauded for.

[DJL44]

Gardy didn't platoon because he was a player motivator first and foremost. He liked telling someone they were the starter rather than having two "bench" players. It also made his job easier to pencil someone into the same lineup spot every day. Making the manager's job easier is not a good reason to do something.

[Mike Sixel]

I actually think Ryan is a very good scout. I think he is a good people person. I think he's pretty good with the public. I think he does a lot well. I am not convinced he does enough well, nor is he embracing the changes in the game (though that's based on outcomes and on field, not on anything more) in the last few years actively.

 

to me, this is a big year. If they make progress and add talent (not the draft, every team adds talent in the draft), and they don't go all cheap, I'm ok with him having his job. But I'm skeptical. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

I was using the 07 list - the 08 list is made up of guys that Smith, the new GM, added.  Smith (for many reasons) never was able to get the farm system back to where Ryan left it.  The 07 list had 4 guys, the 06 list had 5, etc. 

 

But the idea that Ryan left the cupboard bare isn't true. We had a well stocked system his last year with us and a lot of recently well regarded graduates. 

Garza, Slowey, and Perkins were the graduates from the 2007 list.  Which certainly isn't bad, especially when you throw in the sleeper that was Span.  It's not TR's fault that Smith traded the best prospect he was handed for pennies on the dollar.

 

That said, even though the cupboard wasn't bare, I might quibble with "well-stocked".  The Twins had some pretty horrid position player drafts for a few years there, and they hadn't added much on the international side either.  Smith compounded the issue with some bad drafts of his own, but the position player cupboard was pretty bare.

[notoriousgod71]

The idea that Ryan left the cupboard bare isn't completely true.  When he left, the Twins had a pretty young nucleus of talent in the majors and 4 guys in BA top 100.

 

The idea that the Twins had bad pitching under Ryan is also demonstratively false.  In fact, the knock on Ryan used to be that he couldn't draft hitters.  From 2000-2007, the Twins were 3rd in all of baseball in pitching WAR with only the Red Sox and Yankees above them. 

 

Lastly,  we played out this game last year when we constantly updated the pitching FA targets during the season.  Correia was among the best.  The reality that fans don't want to hear is that rebuilds take time, rebuilding through FA is a bad idea, all teams go through these cycles and Ryan has demonstrated the ability to rebuild and keep those windows open longer than most GMs. 

 

It is my opinion, and there is probably nothing that will ever change it, that Ryan left after 2007 because he didn't want to be known as the guy that traded Santana, didn't resign Hunter, and couldn't bring himself to give Mauer a huge contract.

 

I think he left Smith in a horrible position when he took over. And then after the disastrous 2011 season, Ryan comes riding in on his white horse to "clean up" the mess that he partially created.

[Mike Sixel]

It is my opinion, and there is probably nothing that will ever change it, that Ryan left after 2007 because he didn't want to be known as the guy that traded Santana, didn't resign Hunter, and couldn't bring himself to give Mauer a huge contract.

 

I think he left Smith in a horrible position when he took over. And then after the disastrous 2011 season, Ryan comes riding in on his white horse to "clean up" the mess that he partially created.

 

I share this opinion 100%. I've even typed it here before. It is not a popular opinion to hold.