Fangraphs discussion of Twins' prospects up

[Mike Sixel]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-the-prospects-minnesota-twins/

[nytwinsfan]

McDaniel seemed higher on Polanco and Gordon than most and lower on Meyer (thinks he'll be a reliever) than most. He didn't mention Hu at all (was that an oversight?), but he did mention Lefty Cameron Booser, who I don't think was on the Twins Daily top 50 at all. He also seems to really like Thorpe, and doesn't seems to think the risk from his elbow issue is major.

[Mike Sixel]

Can't believe the Hu thing......it was a good write up.

[Badsmerf]

Interesting tid bit on Jorge that he lost a bunch of velocity. Haven't read that anywhere else. Also, given this report, I think expectations should be tempered on Meyer. 

[Mike Sixel]

If Meyer turns out to be a RP....that would be a very bad trade. Very bad.

[drjim]

Interesting tid bit on Jorge that he lost a bunch of velocity. Haven't read that anywhere else. Also, given this report, I think expectations should be tempered on Meyer. 

 

They were tempered for some of us.

 

To me it will be health and command for him to make the rotation, development of a changeup to be a top of the rotation guy. Shows the high risk in pitching.

[Seth Stohs]

If Meyer turns out to be a RP....that would be a very bad trade. Very bad.

 

It was always a possibility. It's the risk you take. 

[Pius Jefferson]

Out of curiosity who are these most scouts the Meyer write-up references in saying he'll become an elite closer?

[Mike Sixel]

It was always a possibility. It's the risk you take. 

 

Right, taking the risk was good, but as I said at the time......if the scouts are wrong more than right, there is an issue with the decisions, not the concepts.

[nicksaviking]

I haven't seen Chargois that high in a while.  I could also probably say, I haven't seen Chargois in a while.  Good to see he's getting some steam again.

 

It can't describe how much it bothers me when these guys have a write up about big power arms with 99 MPH fastballs and elite K rates like Meyer and say they profile as a #3.  Hate it! The last thing Meyer will be is a #3.  Front of the rotation? Possibly.  Back of the bullpen? Sure.  Swing man with control issues, you betcha.  Complete flameout? God forbid but perhaps. A #3? Never in a million years.  If he doesn't turn out to be a top of the rotation guy, it will be because his control isn't good enough.  If his control isn't good enough he's not going to be a #3, he's going to be in the pen or out of baseball.   

[Winston Smith]

Looks like a lot of relief pitchers and Dh's. This actually kind of depressed me a little.

[JustinCB]

Can't believe the Hu thing......it was a good write up.

 

He's since updated it with a mention of him in the 'others' section.

[Pius Jefferson]

If 290/.355/.470 is the upside for Buxton than that's not living up the hype.

[Mike Sixel]

If 290/.355/.470 is the upside for Buxton than that's not living up the hype.

 

that's the exact (nearly) slash line the number 4 player in WAR put up this year.....now double the defensive value, and add more for BsR, and you have one of the 4 or 5 best players in all of baseball for a decade or more. So, I don't agree.

[ashbury]

Out of curiosity who are these most scouts the Meyer write-up references in saying he'll become an elite closer?

 

It can't describe how much it bothers me when these guys have a write up about big power arms with 99 MPH fastballs and elite K rates like Meyer and say they profile as a #3. 

I think where this comes from is the individual pitch ratings shown in this report.  The conventional wisdom I've seen is this: If you have 5 pitches (graded plus or above on at least three), you can be an Ace.  If you have 4 pitches, you are a #2.  With 3 pitches, you're a #3.  With only two, you're either a back of the rotation starter or else a reliever.  I'm paraphrasing, maybe someone will feel motivated to locate a better writeup - was it from Sickels?

 

The ratings in this report on Meyer's pitches are worrisome from this POV.  Super solid fastball, very good slider, and after that... a changeup that may or may not make the grade.  With a fastball/slider combination like that, maybe a very very good reliever.

 

Mind you, I don't believe such a simple categorization covers every pitcher.  But it's coming from experience, just as a rule of thumb, from guys with better scouting abilities than mine.  (Of course, a box of rocks might make a better scout than me...  )

[ashbury]

If 290/.355/.470 is the upside for Buxton than that's not living up the hype.

It's a little murky to me what this "upside" represents in practical terms.  It's explained, way deep in one of the links near the top of that page, as "roughly speaking, a 75% projection". The median projection would be even lower.  But, is that for an entire career, including the decline phase and any seasons marred by nagging injury?  If so, the career-years he has could be significantly higher, and even "typical" years could be a bit above, and coupled with gold glove caliber defense that could be pretty exciting indeed.

 

I'm not sure if anyone, including this rater, is yet ready to completely rule out that his absolute ceiling could be "Willie Mays".

[kab21]

If Meyer turns out to be a RP....that would be a very bad trade. Very bad.

 

It would be better if he was a #2 starter but Betances is a rough comparable to Meyer.  He's huge, similar control issues, throws 2 pitches (really hard) and has always had questions about whether or not he would hold up in the starting rotation.  If Meyer turns out to be a lights out 8th inning guy then it's not a bad trade at all. 

[ashbury]

It would be better if he was a #2 starter but Betances is a rough comparable to Meyer.  He's huge, similar control issues, throws 2 pitches (really hard) and has always had questions about whether or not he would hold up in the starting rotation.  If Meyer turns out to be a lights out 8th inning guy then it's not a bad trade at all. 

I think you're underestimating how valuable a league-average center fielder is.  It won't be Cepeda-for-Sadecki bad, Robinson-for-Pappas bad, maybe.  But still bad, if that's how it plays out.

[big dog]

What's a Cameron Booser?

[Pius Jefferson]

that's the exact (nearly) slash line the number 4 player in WAR put up this year.....now double the defensive value, and add more for BsR, and you have one of the 4 or 5 best players in all of baseball for a decade or more. So, I don't agree

 

Excellent post, Mike. You better explained a true value of Buxton than the 'traditional' avg/ ob/slugg does.  

 

The stat that seemed lower than I would have thought is on-base. I figured he'd be at a .360-.370 clip.

[DocBauer]

Meh.

 

Interesting but nothing earth shattering. There's nothing wiring with the article, but most of us here on TD have been reading, even discussing, all the same reports for 2 plus years with all of these kids.

 

To put a lot of faith in the Meyer write up is being pessimistic and fatalistic. Call me stubborn or optimistic if you will, but virtually every other report I've ever read on Meyer has him as a quality ML SP with #1 potential. The guy was a first round pick for a reason. The top, or one of them, prospect in the Washington system when acquired, and has been a top 1-3 prospect in the Twins system since being acquired for a reason. He was a top performer in the AFL for a reason. He was in the Futures Games for a reason. So to get all worked up because one person writes a report saying his potential is lower is just silly.

 

Meyer is still young, has mad stuff, was on a pitch count, in his first tour of AAA, and still working on his 3rd pitching and repeating mechanics. Not uncommon for any or most pitching prospects, even top ones.

 

The parts of the article I found interesting was how highly they seemed to regard the "lesser" ranked prospects. Seemed they generally felt most of them had genuine ability to reach the majors at some point in some capacity.

[Badsmerf]

Meyer, is anything but young. To give you some perspective, Meyer is only 11 months younger than Liam Hendriks. He is going to be 25 before spring training. Yeah, Randy Johnson didn't hit his stride until 28, but Randy Johnson was also one of the best pitchers all time.

[Mike Sixel]

Meyer did not snuff MLB this year, despite the team being awful at pitching. They are already hinting he needs more time in the minors. Something isn't right.

[Lazarus]

Seems that a year ago, May wasn't destined to be a starter and that his ceiling was middle relief.  We could be on that same Merry-Go-Round now with the "Meyer as a reliever" discussion.  I'm willing to wait for Alex to show us which one he will be when he arrives in 2015.

[markos]

Regarding Meyer, McDaniel isn't the first person to suggest the bullpen. Last offseason in the Twins top-10 list, BP pegged his "Realistic Role" as a late-innings reliever. I don't recall if any of the other outfits (ESPN, BA, MLB, Sickels) had similar concerns last year.

 

It will be interesting to read what the prospect analysts write about Meyer this season. His command hasn't seemed to improve (highest walk rate of his career) and this is now the second consecutive season that he has been shut down due to shoulder issues despite being handled very delicately. I think the durability issues more than anything else will be what pushes him into the bullpen. Even with shoddy command, he will be no more maddening than Liriano. But if he can't pitch more than 100 innings a year without getting hurt, he should just go to the bullpen.

[kab21]

I think you're underestimating how valuable a league-average center fielder is.  It won't be Cepeda-for-Sadecki bad, Robinson-for-Pappas bad, maybe.  But still bad, if that's how it plays out.

 

You forget the context of the trade.

 

The trade was a win-win for both clubs because the Twins controlled Span for 2-3 seasons and they were almost assuredly going to be bad for the first 2 seasons.  They got a high upside arm back and if he is ONLY a lights out 8th inning guy that is peaking with the rest of the Twins prospects then it is not a bad trade in anyway.  My bigger concern is that he is going to shred his shoulder and the Twins have nothing to show for the trade.

[Mike Sixel]

I totally disagree, trading an above average CF for a RP is not a good trade at all. Not even close. You can find RP all over the place, it is clearly hard to find a CF......

 

I find the tone of some responses odd, almost as if people are somehow angry that scouts and others would say this about Meyer, that the MUST be wrong somehow.

 

Even with all the detailed conversations we have here, I still learned stuff about what others think. I thought it was well done.

[gunnarthor]

The Span trade was exactly the type of trade the Twins should have done. They got back a potential true #1 in Meyer, but he was far away.  Potential was the key.  It might turn out that Meyer dies tomorrow in a car accident.  That would suck.  But the team made the type of moves a rebuilding team needs to make - trade off talent that won't be part of the future.

[kab21]

We are talking about prospect trades.  You take the risk that you get nothing of value.  He had big upside and it's not great if Meyer is only a RP'er but it doesn't make it a terrible trade.  Span was controlled for a limited time when the Twins were almost assuredly bad.  Getting a lights out RP'er for 6 years still would make it a solid trade.  You might be able to find the Burton's and Fien's all over the place but shut down RP'ers don't just fall off of trees and an awesome 7th, 8th and 9th inning bullpen is part of a good team. 

 

Everybody is focusing on the Shields trade for KC but the trio of Holland/Herrera/Davis was huge for the Royals this year.  It's more important to build a top rotation but if my sights are the playoffs then I'm also looking at putting together a great bullpen instead of relying on finding Burton's, Fien's and Guerrier's (early version).

[Mike Sixel]

I agree it was the KIND of trade to make, but if you miss on all the trades, then you have an issue. We won't know for some time still if the scouts were right or not......that and not having a plan for CF for two years makes the trade worse than it looked at the time.