Article: Twins Top Ten Prospects (Preliminary)

[drjim]

I guess I'm late too late to the comment board to question the Rogers placement, so instead I suggest perhaps it's possible his increased velocity will have a delayed impact on increased strikeout numbers.

 

Still, does anyone have a take on why so many Twins prospects have good velocity but can't miss bats?  Rogers, Stewart, Brett Lee, Tyler Duffey, Ryan Eades, Brian Gilbert, Fernando Romero and Aaron Slegers come to mind.  What are we missing? Minor league hitters tend to strike out a ton, even if there isn't a lot of movement on the pitches.  What's causing the failure here? Philosophy? Mechanics?

 

Do you have any sense of how this would compare to other orgs? I suspect that high velocity but not a ton of strikeouts isn't unique to the Twins. What we saw before was a fewer high velocity options for the Twins relative to other orgs so none ever made it, while many of those types would wash out in other orgs.

 

Listening to BA podcasts they seem to imply that 90-95 is almost "normal", even for relievers of low a teams. So velocity is not as much of a separator any more, it is command and secondary pitches. 

[nater79a]

 

Also Duffy and Rogers are well established at AA this year meaning they could show enough to warrant a big league promotion as early as next year.  We should be looking at the following pitching options available for next year.

 

Meyer

May

Berrios

Duffy

Rogers

 

Do we really need to sign or trade for a pitcher for those last 2 slots in the rotation?

 

I would add Jason Wheeler to this list.  These six need to be in the mix for 2015. At least at some point during the season.

[Steve Lein]

Do we really need to sign or trade for a pitcher for those last 2 slots in the rotation?

Yes. If it's a true #1. Definitely no more middle to back-end guys.

[Steve Lein]

Still, does anyone have a take on why so many Twins prospects have good velocity but can't miss bats? ... What's causing the failure here? Philosophy? Mechanics?

Maybe this isn't even the interpretation that's happening here, but I never put stock in "peak" or "touches" velocity remarks. This is always what people refer to, but is rarely where they pitch even 5% of the time. So while Rogers might be able to reach back and hit 95 occasionally, I'd bet he really is 90-92 over a game.

 

Look at Trevor May. Notes on this site and elsewhwere say "mid 90's fastball," but he was 91-93 in all the games I watched.

[Seth Stohs]

Seth. I've been wondering about something. How comparable do you see Jorge Polanco & Danny Santana. Both are young primarily SS-types -- at least in the minors. We obviously got to see a lot of Santana at Target Field and he was mostly in centerfield. If I told you only one would be with the Twins four of five years from now, would you guess it to be Polanco or Santana. Obviously they could both be with the Twins and one at another position. 

 

Great question. Well, coming into this year, I think I had Polanco ranked 6th or 7th and Danny Santana at about 15th. 

 

I think that Polanco has a better chance of sustaining things because he has a much better approach at the plate than Santana... at least in terms of willingness to take walks. Polanco needs another year to just get a little stronger, but he can be a similar type of hitter with better strike zone judgment. 

 

That said, what I personally learned about Santana is that as much as he doesn't like to walk much, he does seem to know the strike zone. When he gets a pitch he can get, he attacks it, and that's fun to  see.

 

Polanco has is a better fielder and Santana has a significantly better arm.

[Boom Boom]

Still, does anyone have a take on why so many Twins prospects have good velocity but can't miss bats?  Rogers, Stewart, Brett Lee, Tyler Duffey, Ryan Eades, Brian Gilbert, Fernando Romero and Aaron Slegers come to mind.  What are we missing? Minor league hitters tend to strike out a ton, even if there isn't a lot of movement on the pitches.  What's causing the failure here? Philosophy? Mechanics?

 

I suspect that many reports of velocity readings in the minor leagues are trumped up.  Probably not the whole story, but it could be part of it.

[Steven Buhr]

This would be an interesting way to do the list.  instead of top 50 wee could show the top players at each position. of course this only is interesting when we are deep in minor leaguers.

 

Also Duffy and Rogers are well established at AA this year meaning they could show enough to warrant a big league promotion as early as next year.  We should be looking at the following pitching options available for next year.

 

Meyer

May

Berrios

Duffy

Rogers

 

Do we really need to sign or trade for a pitcher for those last 2 slots in the rotation?

On both points:

The TD Offseason Handbook includes organizational depth charts for each position. It’s one of the first sections I look at when I get my copy. I started jotting a few names down, as well, for a few positions, but it’s kind of premature to do until we know which minor league free agents the Twins re-sign. A number of AA and AAA guys could either elect to go elsewhere or not be offered contracts by the Twins and that would affect those depth charts.

 

There’s no point in looking at starting pitcher “depth,” if by that we mean potential #4/5 starters. If that’s the likely spot for any guy you’re looking at signing or trading for, don’t bother. Let some of these guys get a few starts with the Twins in 2015 instead.

 

But if we’re looking at landing one of the big fish via FA or trade, then the presence of the guys listed shouldn’t stop you from doing so. Landing a new #1 pushes Hughes, Gibson, et al, down a slot, so you tell these younger pitchers they’ll need to beat out someone a bit more established. Makes them beat someone out instead of just competing for an “open” rotation spot.

 

That’s how rotations improve, not by simply cycling new arms through the #4/5 spots.

[cmb0252]

Good lists Seth even if I think you are crazy for putting rogers that high.

 

I know I'm in the minority but I still have Stewart at #3. Best mix of stuff, athleticism, and size. Stewart is the only one out of our top three pitching prospects that profiles as an ace.

[Steven Buhr]

Good lists Seth even if I think you are crazy for putting rogers that high.

 

I know I'm in the minority but I still have Stewart at #3. Best mix of stuff, athleticism, and size. Stewart is the only one out of our top three pitching prospects that profiles as an ace.

I need to be careful not to have this sound like I'm arguing "against" Stewart because I like him a lot and definitely believe he has top of the rotation potential.

 

That said, I wonder how much of our "ranking" of him, compared to others, is influenced by his high position in the draft.

 

Watching him this season in the same rotation with Hu, Thorpe and Gonsalves, made me realize I just don't see any reason why any one of them should be considered much more probable to find himself at the top of a rotation in the future.

 

Hu and Thorpe were international signings. Thorpe would have graduated from HS this past spring if he'd been in the US. Pretty good bet he'd have been a high pick. Gonsalves projected (I believe) as a 1st or 2nd round draft pick the same year as Stewart but fell due to some "character" issues that turned out to be total BS. Hu is a year older (he can legally buy a beer here in a month) and definitely more advanced in development at this point.

 

I'm not sure if that means we're ranking Stewart too high or the others not high enough. Just saying there isn't much difference between them in my book.

[bird]

The velo vs. K question is intriguing, but I've been more curious about whether there's any truth to the notion that the Twins bring up pitchers through the minors with a tendency to have lower K numbers that are NOT related to a lack of talent.

 

I don't know if any conclusions can be drawn in absolute terms from this, but I thought it was interesting:

 

AAA Rochester

Team ERA  3.53 2nd of 14 teams

Team WHIP 1.29 3rd of 14

Team SO: 2nd of 14

 

AA New Britain

ERA 6/12

WHIP 6/12

SO   4/12

 

A+ Ft Myers

ERA 4/12

WHIP  6/12

SO   8/12

 

A- Cedar Rapids

ERA  9/16

WHIP  4/16

SO   5/16

[nater79a]

Yes. If it's a true #1. Definitely no more middle to back-end guys.

 

I doubt we'll be signing a Lester or Shields, so yeah, I'd rather develop the young guys. I'm looking at 2017 before being able to legitimately contend,so try to get Meyer and Berrios ready to be 1-2 starters by then.

[Dantes929]

This would be an interesting way to do the list.  instead of top 50 wee could show the top players at each position. of course this only is interesting when we are deep in minor leaguers.

 

Also Duffy and Rogers are well established at AA this year meaning they could show enough to warrant a big league promotion as early as next year.  We should be looking at the following pitching options available for next year.

 

Meyer

May

Berrios

Duffy

Rogers

 

Do we really need to sign or trade for a pitcher for those last 2 slots in the rotation?

I agree with the other two posters that if we get anything it should be top of the rotation. Kind of wish we didn't have Nolasco. I am more patient than most and would be happy if our rotation at mid year was Hughes, Meyer, Berrios, May and Gibson and in that order. I want another guy at the top but want to see these young guys we have been reading about get their chance even if it means taking a few lumps. I would never give up on a team before a year is even started and can imagine us being competitive but the odds are next year isn't our year anyway.

[Dantes929]

I don't think comparing guys to Duensing should be the insult some intend it to be. He had a 3.31 ERA this year. He had a 10-3 record with a 2.62 ERA over 130 innings in 2010. I see so often posters say prospects might never develop enough even to get a cup of coffee in the bigs I don't think it is such an insult to say your #9 prospect might be a league average pitcher. I know we would all like to have a system made up of only future all stars but Duensing came up big in two of our division championships. There's a place for those guys as well.

[bird]

OK, for the fun of it:

 

Looking back, who would you swap out?

 

1. Buxton v. Hicks

2. Sano v. Revere

3. Berrios v. Valencia

4. Stewart v. Ramos

5. Meyer v. Angel Morales

6. Gordon v. Swarzak

7. Polanco v. Gutierrez

8. May v. Bromberg

9. Rogers v. Mulvey

10. Burdi v. Tosoni

 

When I posted a similar list for #'s 11-20 I think a couple of my pals here thought I was trying to make a point. What a beautiful list we have here in 2014 compared to what we had to work with  four+ years ago. That's the point of the exercise. 

 

But I suppose lots of varied conclusions might be drawn from it. Here are some things I personally would or would NOT conclude from comparing the two groups:

 

1. I would not give the GM very much credit for the improvement, as there are about five dozen employees contributing to the scouting, drafting, signing, and development process.

 

2. I would not conclude that the Twins are way way better than other teams at this stuff.

 

3. I would conclude that, contrary to frequent opinions posted here, the Twins are pretty damn good at this stuff now.

 

4. I would conclude that draft order has both positive and negative influence on what the list looks like, and to pass judgment on an organization's performance without considering this hugely clouds the truth.

 

5. I would conclude that the fairly common generalization about overrated prospects, that "well remember, we thought player X was pretty good back then, so..." doesn't stand up to scrutiny very well. For example, I don't think anyone thought that Swarzak and Bromberg had similar ceilings to, say May and Meyer, or that Valencia was going to ever be more than a serviceable starter at best. 

 

6. I would conclude that neither list supports or refutes an argument for trading prospects for established MLB players. 

 

7. I would conclude that the very top prospects very very frequently end up performing within the articulated range of expectations. For example, Swarzak was thought to have a ceiling of back-end starter and a floor of mop up guy.

[Kwak]

My 2 cents on the high-velocity, low K pitchers is the following:

1)  Their FB is their best pitch and they "ride it hard"--but it isn't a great FB.

2)  Their secondary pitches aren't good enough.  Breaking balls and change-ups are more likely to fetch Ks than FBs--if they're good enough.

3)  Twins pitchers are coached to "be aggressive; attack the strike zone", etc

4)  Those pitchers "that don't throw enough strikes" face career change--everybody notices.

[DocBauer]

Not only a very impressive and exciting list, but there is a very, very good chance that 5 of the Twins top 10 prospects should at least spend some time with the Twins in 2015, with the possibility of any or all graduating to legitimate, full time major leaguer!

 

May should be part of the rotation out of ST barring something unexpected. I don't know about anyone else, but I was pretty impressed after the first few starts once he settled down. When he learns a bit more consistency, and can economize his pitches a bit more, I think he has a real chance to be a quality starter. Like a lot of youngsters, he seemed to suffer from bouts of "put them away" disease at times. The cure comes with experience. If he becomes a really nice 3 that's a really good thing. But I do find to odd to pigeon hole such a young talent so early with expectations.

 

Meyer is sooo close, and should be up at some point, if not right away. Sano and Buxton have rust to shake off, especially Sano, and it's hard to predict when either could/should be up. But their immense talent trumps all, and they should be up at some time.

 

Burdi is fascinating. I don't agree with rushing any young player. But that being said, I really believe we could be looking at a fast riser who could be up June or July. That's 5 of 10 with real shots to make it at some point. Berrios could have a shot, and I'm a big fan and believer, but hopefully there is no reason to rush him. Duffy could have a shot at some point, but again, hopefully no reason to rush him. Polanco and Rosario shouldn't be counted out, but again...

 

Don't fall asleep on Melotakis. I'm very anxious to see what he does in the AFL.

[Seth Stohs]

I don't think comparing guys to Duensing should be the insult some intend it to be. He had a 3.31 ERA this year. He had a 10-3 record with a 2.62 ERA over 130 innings in 2010. I see so often posters say prospects might never develop enough even to get a cup of coffee in the bigs I don't think it is such an insult to say your #9 prospect might be a league average pitcher. I know we would all like to have a system made up of only future all stars but Duensing came up big in two of our division championships. There's a place for those guys as well.

 

Correct. If a couple of these 50 turn into Brian Duensing, that would be helpful! I have him ranked ninth, which generally is going to be mid-to back of the rotation, decent regulars, etc. Duensing's had a terrific career already. I definitely don't take a Duensing comp as a negative at all.

[HitInAPinch]

If the Twins cut ties with Duensing, Swarzak and Burton like they should, I think Burdi has a legit chance to break camp with the Twins. No reason to hold him down.

I'd keep Duensing around.  He's been a very good left-handed resource.  Swarzak would have been gone a long time ago if there was a legit replacement.  He's just another one of those guys desperately wants to be a starter, but isn't.  Burton has had his moments.  Now those moments are over.  Clean sweep time!

[Dantes929]

I'd keep Duensing around.  He's been a very good left-handed resource.  Swarzak would have been gone a long time ago if there was a legit replacement.  He's just another one of those guys desperately wants to be a starter, but isn't.  Burton has had his moments.  Now those moments are over.  Clean sweep time!

Swarzak has served his purpose of being a durable mid relief guy and spot starter. He also had a really, really good year in 2013. A reliever that gets into 50 games and throws 100 innings is a bullpen saver.

[Dantes929]

I also think May is going to be pretty good. Nearly 9 SO/9 What I did notice is that his bad pitches were really, really bad. Getting ahead 0-2 and then throwing two pitches 5 feet in front of home is just wasting two pitches. The batter needs to at least be tempted to swing at the pitch. A golfer gets better when his worst shots become better. May throws enough great pitches. He just throws too many really bad pitches.

[Seth Stohs]

I also think May is going to be pretty good. Nearly 9 SO/9 What I did notice is that his bad pitches were really, really bad. Getting ahead 0-2 and then throwing two pitches 5 feet in front of home is just wasting two pitches. The batter needs to at least be tempted to swing at the pitch. A golfer gets better when his worst shots become better. May throws enough great pitches. He just throws too many really bad pitches.

 

I think May really took some strides this year. I remember his interview on Talk to Contact before spring training, and hearing him talk about pitching, you just knew that he was going to be OK. I think last year at this time, I personally had him ranked #12 or so. I still think he's more #3-#4 starter, but that's nothing to sneeze at, at all!

[nicksaviking]

 

AAA Rochester

Team ERA  3.53 2nd of 14 teams

Team WHIP 1.29 3rd of 14

Team SO: 2nd of 14

 

AA New Britain

ERA 6/12

WHIP 6/12

SO   4/12

 

A+ Ft Myers

ERA 4/12

WHIP  6/12

SO   8/12

 

A- Cedar Rapids

ERA  9/16

WHIP  4/16

SO   5/16

 

Good research.  Not surprised about Rochester with May and Meyer.  Even the soft tossing AAAA types seem to do well with strikeouts.  I'm not surprised Ft. Myers is low.  NB surprises me though.  As far as ERA and WHIP go they are average and I would have guessed they were above average yet the strikeouts are above average and I'd have guessed the opposite.  CR also surprises me as those starters dodn't seem to miss many bats, I'm guessing the releivers are significantly helping that rating, only Thorpe could manage a respectable K rate in that rotation.

[Steven Buhr]

Good research.  Not surprised about Rochester with May and Meyer.  Even the soft tossing AAAA types seem to do well with strikeouts.  I'm not surprised Ft. Myers is low.  NB surprises me though.  As far as ERA and WHIP go they are average and I would have guessed they were above average yet the strikeouts are above average and I'd have guessed the opposite.  CR also surprises me as those starters dodn't seem to miss many bats, I'm guessing the releivers are significantly helping that rating, only Thorpe could manage a respectable K rate in that rotation.

The CR bullpen absolutely drove the K rate. But starters Gonsalves, Batts and, to a lsser degree, Hu, got their share of Ks after they arrived, in addition to Thorpe.

[Seth Stohs]

When I talked to Garver the other day, he talked about how Arteaga has pitchers working on pitching up in the strike zone for the purposes of getting strikeouts. 

[Mike Sixel]

When I talked to Garver the other day, he talked about how Arteaga has pitchers working on pitching up in the strike zone for the purposes of getting strikeouts. 

 

Which is the new practice, since hitters have been taught to hit the low pitch for the last 5-10 years, they aren't as good with the high pitch (that's the meme I read on line anyway).

[laloesch]

I agree with the other two posters that if we get anything it should be top of the rotation. Kind of wish we didn't have Nolasco. I am more patient than most and would be happy if our rotation at mid year was Hughes, Meyer, Berrios, May and Gibson and in that order. I want another guy at the top but want to see these young guys we have been reading about get their chance even if it means taking a few lumps. I would never give up on a team before a year is even started and can imagine us being competitive but the odds are next year isn't our year anyway.

 

 

Agreed. 

 

 

Rotation:

 

Hughes

Gibson

May

Meyer

Berrios

 

Relievers:

 

Pressly

Burdii

Thompson

Cederoth

Milone

Theilbar

Perkins

 

 

Lineup:

 

Santana (SS)

Buxton (CF)

Dozier (2B)

Vargas (DH)

Mauer (1B)

Arcia (RF)

Plouffe / Sano (3B)

Suzuki / Pinto ©

Hicks/Schafer (LF)

 

Bench:

 

Pinto

Escobar

Schafer

Parmelee

[nater79a]

I'd keep Duensing around.  He's been a very good left-handed resource.  Swarzak would have been gone a long time ago if there was a legit replacement.  He's just another one of those guys desperately wants to be a starter, but isn't.  Burton has had his moments.  Now those moments are over.  Clean sweep time!

 

I'd be more inclined to non-tender Duensing.  Not a huge fan, especially considering he'll be looking at a 3 million arbitration number this winter.  Rather go with a Logan Darnell as a long relief/ swing guy out of the pen.   I do agree with buying out Burton however.  His spot looks tailor made for Burdi.

[nater79a]

 

 

 

Rotation:

 

Hughes

Gibson

May

Meyer

Berrios

 

Relievers:

 

Pressly

Burdii

Thompson

Cederoth

Milone

Theilbar

Perkins

 

 

Lineup:

 

Santana (SS)

Buxton (CF)

Dozier (2B)

Vargas (DH)

Mauer (1B)

Arcia (RF)

Plouffe / Sano (3B)

Suzuki / Pinto ©

Hicks/Schafer (LF)

 

Bench:

 

Pinto

Escobar

Schafer

Parmelee

 

I think you may be pushing Cederoth by a year or two.  Was only at Elizabethton last year.

 

Buxton & Berrios probably mid-late 2015 at earliest.

 

Like the ideas though.

[Brandon]

Here is how I see next year starting out:

 

Hughes

Nolasco

Gibson

Pitcher we trade for

May

 

Meyer

then Berrios

 

I see us non-tendering or including Millone in the trade for the starting pitcher 

Millone, Escobar, and (Deunsing or Swarzak or something else) for Latos or Leake, or cinninatti has 3 or 4 pitchers one year away from FA.  Millone can be a replacement for them under team control a few years. 

 

Perkins

Fien

Pressly

Deunsing (unless traded)

Theibar (though he didn't get used a lot towards the end of the season)

Tonkin

Burdi

Swarak (if he not non tendered and go with 8 relievers)

 

Lineup:

 

Santana (SS)

Buxton (CF)

Dozier (2B)

Vargas (DH)

Mauer (1B)

Arcia (RF)

Plouffe / Sano (3B)

Suzuki / Pinto ©

Hicks/Schafer (LF)

 

Bench:

 

Pinto

Escobar / Nunez (if Escobar is traded)

Schafer

Parmelee

[Mike Sixel]

It would be cool if Buxton was ready day one, what odds do you give? I'd say about 5%.