Article: Twins Top Prospects Part 4: 11-20 (Preliminary)

[Steven Buhr]

Walker is a very polarizing prospect.

 

His production has been outstanding.  But as all have mentioned, it has not been without their warts.

 

My main issue with him, is despite his "young" age, he played 3 full seasons of college ball, and never should have been in the Midwest League his first year.  He was and is more experienced than everyone else his same age.  I expected him to dominate the MWL from a run producing standpoint, in the same way I expected him to do so in the FSL this year.  Thus, I'm not overly impressed to the point where I ignore those red flags that come along with him.  It magnifies them for me.

 

With that said, I like him a lot, and next year will tell us a lot more about him than either of the last two have.

Based on your opinion, shouldn't Walker also "dominate" AA in 2015? If he hasn't impressed you the last 2 years, why would he impress you by producing in the next level?

[Rick Niedermann]

Of the 3 Cedar Rapids pitchers on the list. I would rank Chih-Wei-Hu ahead of both Gonsalves and Thorpe. When I saw him pitch he was really polished. But what a great situation to be in to have 3 very high ceiling young starters.  Keep an eye on this young man Twins fans. Hu is really good.

[Steve Lein]

Based on your opinion, shouldn't Walker also "dominate" AA in 2015? If he hasn't impressed you the last 2 years, why would he impress you by producing in the next level?

 

He hasn't "(overly) impressed" me because he did what I "expected" at the low-levels of the minors based on his experience. 

 

He's "dominated" 2 categories of stats.  In that way, I wouldn't even call what he did in the FSL a "dominant" performance in an overall sense.  He hit HR's, which as a byproduct, also produces nice RBI totals.

 

Those are certainly nice, but I don't know how anyone can be impressed by a .246 average or a K in nearly 1 of every 3 at-bats in A-ball. 

 

He'll impress me when he improves those numbers. 

[Steven Buhr]

He hasn't "(overly) impressed" me because he did what I "expected" at the low-levels of the minors based on his experience. 

 

He's "dominated" 2 categories of stats.  In that way, I wouldn't even call what he did in the FSL a "dominant" performance in an overall sense.  He hit HR's, which as a byproduct, also produces nice RBI totals.

 

Those are certainly nice, but I don't know how anyone can be impressed by a .246 average or a K in nearly 1 of every 3 at-bats in A-ball. 

 

He'll impress me when he improves those numbers. 

OK I don't think I'd disagree with that.

 

What if he puts up similar numbers in AA (and higher), though?

 

If he turns out to be one of those guys who will simply always strike out at a high rate and hit .250... but produce 30+ HR per season (which his MiLB HR numbers would roughly equate to over a full MLB season)... I think I'd find a place for him.

 

I'm not counting on Walker doing that. But I've probably been more impressed with what he has accomplished than others have.

[Seth Stohs]

I'm definitely an Adam Brett Walker guy, as everyone knows. My assumption is that a player who will make it will make some adjustments. If Walker can continue to make adjustments each year, enough to put up similar numbers, then that would be great.

 

It'll take work, but we shall see.

[Sweetwater]

Hearing that Gonsalves sits in the high 80's bums me out a bit. Thought he threw harder. Hu is just sounding better and better to me. His mix sounds delicious, and the velo is right. Could be a shooting star next year.

[lightfoot789]

Adam Brett Walker has major contact issues.  Can't argue that.  My only argument is that I find it hard to look at the downside of someone who has Never  - NOT been successful / productive at any level (H.S.; College; Collegiate Summer Leagues; Professional).  I'm talking about a guy who regardless to level, seems to still serve as the most productive person on his random teams. My definition of successful is not how an individual can become better, but rather what have you done to make your team successful that season (that day). Helping your team to championships (several) by leading them (all) in HRs and RBIs means something to me. Teams don't win without pitching and run producers.  It can't and shouldn't be overlooked. "We Play to Win the Game" - The thought of expecting failure when it hasn't come yet is not me. I say that to say - If he continues to produce at his current pace when he arrives at the MLB - people will love him.  The overall history of "prospects" proves his potential for failure (agreed).   The history of  Adam Brett Walker II proves otherwise (just saying).
• High School - Top run producer in his conference and most of state of Wisconsin
• College - One of the Top run producers in the country (All American - 2 of 3 years)
• Collegiate Summer League - 2 years and 2 championship teams (Top HR Hitter and RBI guy)
• Professional  (MiLB) - 3 years and 2 championships (Tops in HRs and RBI in every league)       
 

I've  never heard anyone on the Twins say "we are concerned"?   We talk about what scouts / experts say every day.  What do the Twins say?  Do they see him as a long shot like most do here?  I need to hear from his bosses to end my fixation.  I take the "No News is Good News" philosophy.
When he stops winning and his numbers hurt his team from doing just that (just once in his lifetime) - I will join the bandwagon for "recipe for MLB failure". Other than that - I need to see failure first (Losing). Some guys are just: Built for Success - Have the Luck of the Irish - Have that Austin Power Mojo - Are Just Blessed - You name it. They have it.   I feel the Twins would be crazy to get rid of this kid.  Especially since winning has been our biggest problem.  WINNERS are hard to come by. Ask Jack Morris!

[kab21]

I think one important thing to understand is that most like him a lot as a prospect.  He ranks in the 10-15 range on everyone's list and in another system (or the Twins system 5+ years ago) he would be a top 5ish prospect. 

 

His biggest problem is that .290 MiLB hitters usually become .260-.270 hitters in the majors.  A .250-.260 hitter (like Walker) becomes a .220-.230 hitter.  Considering that he doesn't like to walk then his OBP is in the .270's.  He has excellent tools and has produced (reasons why he is ranked) but he needs to significantly improve his plate discipline as he moves towards the majors.

[lightfoot789]

I'm not hating on other posters views - I'm just more of a believer based on what I see and not what might be.  I see winning and run production to gather those wins, as the end all. 

 

Tweek the engine, but don't change it.  Especially,  if that engine has gotten you to work without failure (all of your life).  And got you there on time (22 years old)  with no breakdowns (injuries).  Sounds like a strong body / frame and engine with a little rust on it.  A good Midwestern car that gets the job done!  I can see buffing out the dents, but I'm not paying for a new car (free agents) when I have old reliable right here.  I would imagine Walker wants to get better as well.  He has handled each of his new challenges / levels in stride. 

 

Think of it this way.  The only places where he repeated a level was high school and college.  When given the chance in those environments - the results were .500 BA in H.S. and .400 BA his second year of college (with a .500 OBP).  Still struck out, but major improvements in contact issues.  Get him to his final destination and let him the opportunity to adjust to that level.  Repeating in the minor leagues just means new faces and new pitchers during each half of a season.  Let's think proactive when it comes to his development and move this kid along so he can adjust accordingly.  Like he always has..........................

Edited October 5, 2014 by lightfoot789

[ashbury]

 

His biggest problem is that .290 MiLB hitters usually become .260-.270 hitters in the majors.  A .250-.260 hitter (like Walker) becomes a .220-.230 hitter. 

It's certainly true that higher leagues are harder than lower leagues and a batter who moves up tends to see an immediate drop in his stats.  For an older player that might be the end of the story, but someone young can compensate by learning more each year.  I think Walker stands a good chance of avoiding that .220-.230 rut if he reaches the majors.

[diehardtwinsfan]

There isn't a person in any minor league system that didn't dominate in High School. Just to get you an idea, the best ball player in my high school who was one of the best in our conference never made it out of A after spending a few years in college absolutely dominating that competition as well. The same can be said for college. Even Drew Butera posted a .915 OPS his junior year of college. This is pretty normal for all prospects to do well in HS/College.

 

There's a reason Walker was drafted in the 3rd round. To be clear, I like the guy as a prospect, and if he can get beyond those contact issues, I think he will be a star in MLB. I think he can (at his ceiling) be a Vlad Gurerro type guy, who Ks a lot, but still posts overall good numbers... that assumes he can develop a bit more patience and start laying off pitches that he cannot hit. As a prospect, that makes him a pretty good one, and like someone else said, a few years back, he'd be a top 5 prospect in the system. I'd also note that he'd be in the top 10 for most baseball teams if he were in their systems. He's not at the moment in large part b/c of the depth that exists in the Twins' system. There's nothing wrong with that.

[Steve Lein]

What if he puts up similar numbers in AA (and higher), though?

 

If he turns out to be one of those guys who will simply always strike out at a high rate and hit .250... but produce 30+ HR per season (which his MiLB HR numbers would roughly equate to over a full MLB season)... I think I'd find a place for him.

 

If that happens, there will definitely be a place for him on the Twins!