Article: Twins Top Prospects Part 4: 11-20 (Preliminary)

[6TH Wisconsin]

I'm talking prospects in general, not this list. This team has pretty much never traded a legit prospect for a proven MLB player, with the exception of Shannon Stewart, I think.

 

It is the concept of trading prospects I'm talking about, not this part of the list.

 

If you have the "deepest system", you have an excess to trade from. 

The Twins traded Bobby Kielty for Stewart who was already on the big league roster, so I'm not sure it has ever happened.

[Brandon]

so whose left for the top 10?

Burdi

Polanco

Stewart

Berrios

May

Meyer

Gordon

Buxton

Sano

Vargas?

Garver?

I'm at loss for the last one.

[chopper0080]

Players I would trade prospects for

 

Cole Hamels

Mat Latos

Johnny Cueto

Yu Darvish

Elvis Andrus

Desmond Jennings

Matt Joyce

Carlos Gonzales

Wade Miley

Ervin Santana

Mike Minor

Hisashi Iwakuma

David Peralta

 

and Giancarlo Stanton...who I would part with Sano and a 2nd tier pitching prospect for.  The Marlins are quietly shopping him as they don't expect to be able to pay to keep him.  I'm not sure if I would move Buxton for him, but I might.

 

For the rest of them...pretty much every prospect would be available.  I would probably deal highlight a deal with Meyer before Mays or Berrios.  Maybe add a hitter as well. 

 

Essentially

 

Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, Adam Walker and Jason Wheeler for Giancarlo Stanton

 

Alex Meyer, Max Kepler, and Travis Harrison for Mat Latos

 

Honestly, I'm not sure this would be enough to get these guys, and I might add more if that was the case.

[drjim]

Players I would trade prospects for

 

Cole Hamels

Mat Latos

Johnny Cueto

Yu Darvish

Elvis Andrus

Desmond Jennings

Matt Joyce

Carlos Gonzales

Wade Miley

Ervin Santana

Mike Minor

Hisashi Iwakuma

David Peralta

 

and Giancarlo Stanton...who I would part with Sano and a 2nd tier pitching prospect for.  The Marlins are quietly shopping him as they don't expect to be able to pay to keep him.  I'm not sure if I would move Buxton for him, but I might.

 

For the rest of them...pretty much every prospect would be available.  I would probably deal highlight a deal with Meyer before Mays or Berrios.  Maybe add a hitter as well. 

 

Essentially

 

Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, Adam Walker and Jason Wheeler for Giancarlo Stanton

 

Alex Meyer, Max Kepler, and Travis Harrison for Mat Latos

 

Honestly, I'm not sure this would be enough to get these guys, and I might add more if that was the case.

 

Not nearly enough for Stanton, might be close on Latos.

[nytwinsfan]

The first 9, but Vargas has more than 150 ABs and Garver was 31. I think it might be A.J. Achter.

 

so whose left for the top 10?

Burdi

Polanco

Stewart

Berrios

May

Meyer

Gordon

Buxton

Sano

Vargas?

Garver?

I'm at loss for the last one.

[chopper0080]

Not nearly enough for Stanton, might be close on Latos.

 

You think it would take Oswaldo Arcia or Jose Berrios being added?  I'm just considering, the longer they wait, the less leverage they have which is what the Twins could exploit.

[Seth Stohs]

The vibe on this list largely is either "falling back"-  5 guys are ranked lower on Seth's Top 50 from a year ago- Thorpe, Rosario, Walker, Kepler and Harrison   or "staying about the same"- Gonsalves, Minier and Jones.  Only Duffey, who jumped from #45 to #15 and Hu at #17 look like "comers".  

 

By contrast,  Seth's 11-20 last year graduated FOUR players to the Twins- Vargas, Santana, May, Pinto. This list of 11-20 has only lower-upside Duffey and more of a 2015 longshot in Rosario with any possible chance of helping the big club next year.

 

 

Thorpe dropped for now, but he could move up when I do a final version in the book. He could move a few spots depending upon how his elbow acts up. It was a disappointing season for Rosario, plus the suspension and the benching for team rules that cost him a handful of games later. Character counts, but he still is a very good prospect. Walker didn't really fall. Kepler fell due to his first half, but came up a bit again and is encouraging with his second half. Harrison was actually solid, but it would be nice to see the HR show up, and I think they will. Also, OF vs 3B matters a little bit.

 

I'd also remind people that there has been some graduation but there has also been another draft with a couple of high picks... So, I woudln't worry so much where they are year-to-year because other variables come up. And, frankly, the more a player moves up, the more the bandaid is peeled back, the tougher the competition. If you can maintain your play as you move up, that's pretty impressive!

[Steven Buhr]

that's kind of our point, birdwatcher.....those prospects look better now, but those other prospects looked good in the past. MOST prospects don't work out, so quit being afraid to trade them for actual MLB players.......

I agree that it makes sense to consider pretty much any offer of valuable MLB player for prospects at the level of guys below your top 10 (and maybe higher). After all, the downside of having such a deep farm is that it will be virtually impossible to keep all these guys through to the point where they are legit big leaguers. There simply won't be room for all of them with the Twins.

 

However, I'll also say that going back to the era from which the comparison was made by birdwatcher, I don't recall ever being terribly enthused by even the top 10 prospects on those lists, much less the 11-20 list.

[SarasotaBill]

Stanton salary could be 13M, 18M, and then he's a free agent (25-30M per year).

 

The required prospects and his future salaries make trading for Stanton unrealistic.

[Dantes929]

Hu and Thorpe are the ones that intrigue me the most. Young guys with apparently great stuff and good control. Since the Twins offense is looking decent and should only get better with Sano and Buxton and if we keep Santana the quality of defensive outfield with Buxton will increase exponentially. Any position player besides Buxton should be available for trade. I do not care to part with any of Berrios, Meyer, May, Stewart, Thorpe or Hu. I liked that we got these kind of guys for Span and Revere. I wouldn't care to backtrack.

[zenser]

Players I would trade prospects for

 

Cole Hamels

Mat Latos

Johnny Cueto

Yu Darvish

Elvis Andrus

Desmond Jennings

Matt Joyce

Carlos Gonzales

Wade Miley

Ervin Santana

Mike Minor

Hisashi Iwakuma

David Peralta

 

and Giancarlo Stanton...who I would part with Sano and a 2nd tier pitching prospect for.  The Marlins are quietly shopping him as they don't expect to be able to pay to keep him.  I'm not sure if I would move Buxton for him, but I might.

 

For the rest of them...pretty much every prospect would be available.  I would probably deal highlight a deal with Meyer before Mays or Berrios.  Maybe add a hitter as well. 

 

Essentially

 

Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, Adam Walker and Jason Wheeler for Giancarlo Stanton

 

Alex Meyer, Max Kepler, and Travis Harrison for Mat Latos

 

Honestly, I'm not sure this would be enough to get these guys, and I might add more if that was the case.

No need to trade prospects for Hisashi Iwakuma. He is a FA. They better pursue him hard. His last couple of outings weren't good but he had a solid year.

[Siehbiscuit]

Another look-back for the fun of it. Tell me, would you trade:

 

11. Lewis Thorpe for Tyler Robertson?

12. Eddie Rosario for Luke Hughes?

13. ABWIII for Joe Benson?

14. Gonsalves for Rob Delaney

15. Duffey for Michael McCardell

16. Kepler for Parmelee

17. Hu for Manship

18. Harrison for Dustin Martin

19. Jones for Slama

20. Minier for Plouffe

 

Maybe that last one, right?

I'm afraid that Kepler will be EXACTLY like Parmelee!

[drjim]

You think it would take Oswaldo Arcia or Jose Berrios being added?  I'm just considering, the longer they wait, the less leverage they have which is what the Twins could exploit.

 

They will have to outbid the Red Sox too. Marlins are probably in no hurry to move him so they can be patient.

[nater79a]

so whose left for the top 10?

Burdi

Polanco

Stewart

Berrios

May

Meyer

Gordon

Buxton

Sano

Vargas?

Garver?

I'm at loss for the last one.

 

Hint: Lefty starter.  (Don't want to give it away and ruin the suspense!)

[drjim]

Hint: Lefty starter.  (Don't want to give it away and ruin the suspense!)

 

Kris Johnson. I knew it!

[nater79a]

Kris Johnson. I knew it!

 

Ha! Nope.  AA ball...

[SarasotaBill]

I would take the upside of Thorpe and Gonsalves over Rogers.

[Brandon]

I think I got Taylor Rogers....

[drjim]

I would take the upside of Thorpe and Gonsalves over Rogers.

 

I'll keep an open mind and read what Seth says, but he wouldn't make my top 20.

[twinssouth]

Great job Seth. Lots of talent. Glad to see Duffey get his dues. Not sure if Rosario deserves that high of ranking. I can easily see Thorpe in top 10, 18 years old in LowA, doing well, bad arm or not, he's got a bright future.

[Thrylos]

I am a bit higher on Minier.  I think that he is a top 10 if not a top 5 guy in this team (with May, Vargas, Santana, & Co all graduating from these lists...)  

[drjim]

I am a bit higher on Minier.  I think that he is a top 10 if not a top 5 guy in this team (with May, Vargas, Santana, & Co all graduating from these lists...)  

 

I would buy as high as #8, but probably a year early on the top 5. I want to see something in full season ball before I jump completely on the bandwagon.

[jokin]

Thorpe dropped for now, but he could move up when I do a final version in the book. He could move a few spots depending upon how his elbow acts up. It was a disappointing season for Rosario, plus the suspension and the benching for team rules that cost him a handful of games later. Character counts, but he still is a very good prospect. Walker didn't really fall. Kepler fell due to his first half, but came up a bit again and is encouraging with his second half. Harrison was actually solid, but it would be nice to see the HR show up, and I think they will. Also, OF vs 3B matters a little bit.

 

I'd also remind people that there has been some graduation but there has also been another draft with a couple of high picks... So, I woudln't worry so much where they are year-to-year because other variables come up. And, frankly, the more a player moves up, the more the bandaid is peeled back, the tougher the competition. If you can maintain your play as you move up, that's pretty impressive!

 

Walker dropped from 10 to 13, and his numbers in A+ still raise red flag doubts on whether he'll ever be a productive major leaguer, Harrison dropped from 12 to 18 and had similar struggles in Ft Myers to Walker leading to the same doubts long-term.  Kepler fell from 8 to 16 and it becomes ever more doubtful if there will ever be a spot available for him on the Twins before they have to make a decision on cutting ties.  Rosario was a well-documented mess in 2014, falling from 5 to 12.   Bottom line, all four need to have big years at Chattanooga in 2015 to stay in the mix as future elite Twins prospects.

[lightfoot789]

Walker dropped from 10 to 13, and his numbers in A+ still raise red flag doubts on whether he'll ever be a productive major leaguer.  Bottom line, all four need to have big years at Chattanooga in 2015 to stay in the mix as future elite Twins prospects.

 

Are the Red Flags the League leading 25 HRs or the 95 RBI.  Would you care about his red flags if he had the same production in the MLB and same K Rate and low OBP?  The crazy part is he has never Not been productive at any level.  Even in his poorsest season in the  Cape Cod  - He led his Hyannis Team in HRs and RBI while helping them to their first championship in 23 years. Yes I said 23 years.  Did he have K's - Yes.  But 23 years and you're the top run producer on that team.   Why do we continue to wait for his failures when all he has done is Win and Succeed at every level?  Trust me, after a similar season in AA - everyone will say - "I'll wait to see if he can do this at the AAA level where the pitchers are better".   Your Red Flags  haven't stopped him from being a productive professional hitter.

 

[lightfoot789]

Out of curiosity - Who are we basing this red flag test on?  Who on the Twins that has past this red flag test and why aren't we winning with them over the last 4 years?  Why is this red flag criteria so important to the fan base - more so than league leading production numbers? 

 

I can count so many players in the farm system who have had an outstanding OBP yet can't score runs by themselves because that is their only true tool.   Dalton Hicks is another overlooked prospect that only produces year in and year out and receives very little love.  He saves so many errors with his glove around the bag on throws.

[lightfoot789]

Poor Matt Tomshaw - Another flawed, non sexy, no love, player who all he does is produce?  Age my...............................

 

Flawed ranking system with regards to him.  Dickey was old as hell when he made his Knuckler work.  I hope he goes elsewhere and gets the chance to at least fail.

[Dman]

I guess I don't understand the no love for Duffy. At 23 his control and ERA are better than Trevor Mays were at that age and league. He throws nearly as hard as May and his control is better at 23 than May as well. He strikes out a lot of batters and doesn't walk many guys either. Seems just as exciting if not more than May to me.

 

Minier is younger than Polanco last year but his potential is pretty exciting as well. Hu, Gonsalves and Thorpe are very exciting prospects. Maybe I am drinking too much Twins prospects kool aid but I am excited about that 11-20.

Edited October 2, 2014 by Dman

[TRex]

Out of curiosity - Who are we basing this red flag test on?  Who on the Twins that has past this red flag test and why aren't we winning with them over the last 4 years?  Why is this red flag criteria so important to the fan base - more so than league leading production numbers? 

 

I can count so many players in the farm system who have had an outstanding OBP yet can't score runs by themselves because that is their only true tool.   Dalton Hicks is another overlooked prospect that only produces year in and year out and receives very little love.  He saves so many errors with his glove around the bag on throws.

Why do you refuse to let other people express their opinions? They are not out of line, as several national writers point out the exact same thing. I get that you are in Walker's corner, and I am as well. Some prospects are just going to have to prove the 'experts' wrong at every level. You do not have to like it, but trying to over-shout your friends at TD is not going to change anyone's opinion... I think you have proved that beyond a doubt.

[kab21]

Out of curiosity - Who are we basing this red flag test on?  Who on the Twins that has past this red flag test and why aren't we winning with them over the last 4 years?  Why is this red flag criteria so important to the fan base - more so than league leading production numbers? 

 

I can count so many players in the farm system who have had an outstanding OBP yet can't score runs by themselves because that is their only true tool.   Dalton Hicks is another overlooked prospect that only produces year in and year out and receives very little love.  He saves so many errors with his glove around the bag on throws.

 

We aren't trying to produce the best AA players.  You might be willing to ignore red flags because someone can hit HR's but that doesn't mean that those red flags aren't still there.  He has a 3.5K to 1BB ratio. 

 

Somebody mentioned Vargas improving his plate discipline this year in Walker's favor.  Vargas went from 2:1 to 1.6:1 this year (with poor rookie ball ratios).  Not surprisingly his plate discipline got worse in the majors (5:1) and is a concern for next season.  Arcia's best plate discipline in the minors was 2:1 with some worse struggles in short stints.  His plate discipline has not been good at all in the majors at 4:1 and 5:1 and it is the one MAJOR thing that is holding him back from being a good MLB'er.  Walker's plate discipline has been much worse than either of these and it's a MAJOR RED FLAG if he ever wants to be a good MLB'er instead of a great MiLB run producer.

 

MiLB K:BB ratios of the 3 players

Vargas 2:1

Arcia 2.5:1

Walker 3.5:1

 

some others that had solid power and some MLB K problems (numbers are just ballpark head calculations)

Kubel 1.1:1

Cuddyer 1.6:1

Hunter 2.5:1

Koskie 1.7:1

Young 3:1

Gomez 3:1

Willy 1.3:1

 

There are examples of good players with 3:1 except that each of these were much younger at similar levels.  Walker is still an interesting prospect but let's not act like red flags don't exist.

Edited October 2, 2014 by kab21

[Steve Lein]

Walker is a very polarizing prospect.

 

His production has been outstanding.  But as all have mentioned, it has not been without their warts.

 

My main issue with him, is despite his "young" age, he played 3 full seasons of college ball, and never should have been in the Midwest League his first year.  He was and is more experienced than everyone else his same age.  I expected him to dominate the MWL from a run producing standpoint, in the same way I expected him to do so in the FSL this year.  Thus, I'm not overly impressed to the point where I ignore those red flags that come along with him.  It magnifies them for me.

 

With that said, I like him a lot, and next year will tell us a lot more about him than either of the last two have.