Article: Twins Trade Targets

[tobi0040]

Probably would have to be Dozier. I doubt they want future potential much as the window on Strasburg may be closing for them.  I would lean towards trading Dozier for Gio straight up but I seriously doubt TR is going to trade the clubhouse leader guy after replacing the manager.

 

I don't think this year is the time.  Gio has 2 years and one team option, then a vesting option.  So maybe only 3 years left. We are probably not competing the first year, maybe two of those three years and Polanco is still young.  If we were one player away and we had more clarity about Polanco maybe.

[Physics Guy]

I don't think this year is the time.  Gio has 2 years and one team option, then a vesting option.  So maybe only 3 years left. We are probably not competing the first year, maybe two of those three years and Polanco is still young.  If we were one player away and we had more clarity about Polanco maybe.

This year is not the time only if we don't make any changes.  I don't want to wait to start winning until the young guns come up.  I would rather we have a "winning" team when they come up.  I don't think we are that far from being a .500 team or better.  Adding a SP to the front end of the rotation would do much to get us on the right track, whether it be a trade for a guy like Gio or signing one of the top 3 FA.  If you look at the BRef site, the entire group of starters were at .700 OPS or better.  Our offense is on the right track.  Now we just need to improve the pitching and possibly OF defense.

[chopper0080]

I don't disagree with the basis of this statement. But as stated, it's never wrong to add premier talent. But what if some of those tradeable pieces are premier talent, or will be in the next year or two for a rebuilding team?

 

I don't think the argument is "don't trade for talent", but rather, time it right. One player, even an elite one, won't completely change the fortunes of a team. But wait until the roster is more set, and there are prospects knocking on the door, THEN you have the depth and timing to make that big trade to push the team over the top.

 

As I've stated previously, barring an "unlucky" 2015 where the roster and top prospects are ravaged by injury, (somewhat similar to 2014), think how much stronger the Twins depth of talent will be at or near the ML level. At some point in 2015, or by the end of the season, players such as Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Polanco, May, Meyer and Berrios should be up or ready. And there are other solid possibles I'm not listing. And there's a real possibility of a huge influx of quality, hard throwing RP ready or near as well. I'm not saying give up on 2015. But there are finances available to improve the team. Hold on to your bargaining chips until the odds are more in your favor.

 

So if Stanton was 32 years old, I would agree.  However, trading for talent ENTERING it's prime is one of the smartest moves you can make.  Stanton has 6 years until he turns 30.  If that isn't a big enough window to contend, you aren't doing it right. 

 

You trade for Stanton now.  You have a star to build around.  You have Dozier who is now improved.  You have a batter to support/hide Mauer's decline.  Plouffe now is a key defensive pressen who hits some, rather than a poor hitting 3B with a decent glove.  You support your staff of developing pitchers.  You then have a winning environment to bring Buxton, Berrios, Goodrum, and Polanco into.  You aren't heaping pressure onto these young players as they are adjusting to the major leagues.  Trading for an elite young MLB player is the best move this franchise could make.

 

Why does St. Louis always seem to have success when they bring in prospects?  It is because their team is built to support those prospects rather than depend on those prospects.  This is where the Twins fail.

[tobi0040]

This year is not the time only if we don't make any changes.  I don't want to wait to start winning until the young guns come up.  I would rather we have a "winning" team when they come up.  I don't think we are that far from being a .500 team or better.  Adding a SP to the front end of the rotation would do much to get us on the right track, whether it be a trade for a guy like Gio or signing one of the top 3 FA.  If you look at the BRef site, the entire group of starters were at .700 OPS or better.  Our offense is on the right track.  Now we just need to improve the pitching and possibly OF defense.

 

It is about timing.  The Twins model of a sustainable run is young players contributing and a few veterans.  By the time our prospects are adding value, Gio has one year left and is demanding $120M.  no thanks.

[Willihammer]

One problem I see with "timing" is that the core we all envision might not be the core we'll end up with.

 

Example. According to this top 22 list written 3 years ago, the Twins best prospects were:

 

10: Kepler

9: Salcedo

8: Bullock

7: Arcia

6: Revere

5: Hendriks

4: Sano

3: Hicks

2: Wimmers

1: Gibson

 

Flash forward to 2014 and the best players were Brian Dozier, Trevor Plouffe, Danny Santana, Revere, Arcia, Gibson, Pinto, and Kennys Vargas - only 3 of whom ranked in the top 22 of this particular prospect list.

 

I'm curious - has anyone gathered the various BA, MLB.com, minorleagueball.com prospect lists over the years and determined how accurate they are? Who the most accurate forecasters are? Trends? (ie. are certain types consistently overvalued or undervalued?)

 

Has anyone considered the possibility that the new core is here already?

 

[chopper0080]

One problem I see with "timing" is that the core we all envision might not be the core we'll end up with.

 

Example. According to this top 22 list written 3 years ago, the Twins best prospects were:

 

10: Kepler

9: Salcedo

8: Bullock

7: Arcia

6: Revere

5: Hendriks

4: Sano

3: Hicks

2: Wimmers

1: Gibson

 

Flash forward to 2014 and the best players were Brian Dozier, Trevor Plouffe, Danny Santana, Revere, Arcia, Gibson, Pinto, and Kennys Vargas - only 3 of whom ranked in the top 22 of this particular prospect list.

 

I'm curious - has anyone gathered the various BA, MLB.com, minorleagueball.com prospect lists over the years and determined how accurate they are? Who the most accurate forecasters are? Trends? (ie. are certain types consistently overvalued or undervalued?)

 

Has anyone considered the possibility that the new core is here already?

 

I love this consideration.

 

For all of my issues with the Twins roster, I can say that Dozier, Mauer, Plouffe, Santana, Arcia, Vargas, Hughes, Gibson, and Perkins are players that can be parts in a contending team.  However, you need to add key pieces, AND THEN add in your prospects when they are forcing their way up.  Build a roster that allows May to be a 5th starter.  That allows Hicks to be a defensive OF.  That allows Santana to grow into a position whichever it may be.  That allows Buxton to be promoted into the back of the batting lineup rather than the top.

 

Hell, you don't even need to add a superstar, just more quality players.   What would the team look like with Elvis Andrus at SS and Santana in CF until Buxton pushes him to one of the corners?  How about a starting staff with Mat Latos, Phil Hughes, Gibson, Vargas and May? 

 

This roster has potential, but unless the Twins make some moves, potential is all it will ever be.

[KGB]

I don't know how to say this without sounding confrontational, so I'll just say it...

I think if you substituted "2013" for every "2014'" and "2015" for every "2014," your post could have been written last October, and probably was, just not by you.

"Wait until 2014, when Meyer/Mays/Buxton/Sano/Rosario/pickyournamehere are up and producing...then go get what you need."

I'd rather the team goes and gets some of what they need, and hope the minor leagues can supply even more, rather than the other way around. To me that's the less risky strategy. YMMV of course.

The Twins have not begun to see what their top prospects can do. Seems a little early to trade top prospects for a position player. We scored run this year so that was not the problem. This sounds like "I just want them to do something" and spending money just to spend without improving the team. How does this make the Twins better than Miami was last year? Why would he sign a long term contract with a losing team? Doubt this was his dream

[Otto von Ballpark]

How about Escobar, Kepler and Thorpe for Gio.

As an aside: Kepler probably has neutral at best trade value right now, due to the 40-man roster spot he requires while being nowhere near MLB.  Might be a negative for some teams.

[cmb0252]

Have Stanton or Gio actually been rumored to be available?

[Physics Guy]

Have Stanton or Gio actually been rumored to be available?

Not that I have seen, just speculation due to their teams' situations.  Washington has Zimmerman and Strasburg nearing FA and will need to extend with a big contract for both.  I think Fister is near FA also.  Gio is their #4 of #5 with Roark who is a much cheaper option.  Florida has proven they will trade young players before they reach FA if they are unable to get extend them.  I don't think they have had much luck with Stanton so far.

[drjim]

Have Stanton or Gio actually been rumored to be available?

 

Why should that stop people from criticizing Ryan for not trading for them?

 

I find it very unlikely the Nats trade Gio and close to unlikely that the Marlins trade Stanton.

[tobi0040]

Why should that stop people from criticizing Ryan for not trading for them?

 

I find it very unlikely the Nats trade Gio and close to unlikely that the Marlins trade Stanton.

 

I think Stanton gets moved this year or next. I don't see them doling out the cash.

[chopper0080]

Why should that stop people from criticizing Ryan for not trading for them?

 

I find it very unlikely the Nats trade Gio and close to unlikely that the Marlins trade Stanton.

 

Quality, young players are generally not "available".  You have to be proactive in searching for them, and make solid offers, comprised of good players to get them.  If you prefer 30 year old guys entering the end of their prime, wait for free agency to start.  I'm sure the next Nolasco will be available.

[drjim]

Quality, young players are generally not "available".  You have to be proactive in searching for them, and make solid offers, comprised of good players to get them.  If you prefer 30 year old guys entering the end of their prime, wait for free agency to start.  I'm sure the next Nolasco will be available.

 

I don't think it really works like this in reality. Teams communicate all the time about needs and who might be available. Surely everyone is "available" in the sense that if you make an insane offer they'll do it. I don't think the Twins can make an offer insane enough to get Stanton if the Marlins don't want to trade him, and I wouldn't want to do so with Gonzalez, he's not so good that it is worthwhile to vastly overpay. And the Nationals aren't interested in trading him unless they have a clear option to replace him.

 

I don't see how the Marlins would trade Stanton unless they aren't close on an extension (as in, Stanton won't want to sign there or wants obscene money - 10+ years). In that scenario why would he want to sign with the Twins instead, a team coming off 4 90 loss seasons and who just gutted their roster/farm system to acquire him? And I'm not gutting the roster to acquire a guy who will walk in 2 years.

[chopper0080]

I don't think it really works like this in reality. Teams communicate all the time about needs and who might be available. Surely everyone is "available" in the sense that if you make an insane offer they'll do it. I don't think the Twins can make an offer insane enough to get Stanton if the Marlins don't want to trade him, and I wouldn't want to do so with Gonzalez, he's not so good that it is worthwhile to vastly overpay. And the Nationals aren't interested in trading him unless they have a clear option to replace him.

 

I don't see how the Marlins would trade Stanton unless they aren't close on an extension (as in, Stanton won't want to sign there or wants obscene money - 10+ years). In that scenario why would he want to sign with the Twins instead, a team coming off 4 90 loss seasons and who just gutted their roster/farm system to acquire him? And I'm not gutting the roster to acquire a guy who will walk in 2 years.

PLayers getting close to contract years can be available, even if they aren't advertised.  The Marlins prefer to avoid large, long term financial commitments.  that is known.

 

That Nats have starting pitching, Gonzalez may be available due to positional depth and overall budget.  Teams won't "shop" these players, but most guys can be had in certain situations.  These players have been named because their situations dictate that they may be available even if they aren't being shopped.  No one is saying "trade for Strasburg" because their isn't a reason for the Nats to get off of him.