Article: Twins Trade Targets

[The Wise One]

Oakland is noted for trading players before they get expensive. Donaldson for Sano and a couple of C grade pitchers.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Speaking of the Athletics, Samardzjia is already expensive, maybe he's a trade candidate with just a year left on his contract...

 

Donaldson is great, and under team control until 2018, the A's don't have to be in a hurry to deal him this off-season.

[The Wise One]

Speaking of the Athletics, Samardzjia is already expensive, maybe he's a trade candidate with just a year left on his contract...

 

Donaldson is great, and under team control until 2018, the A's don't have to be in a hurry to deal him this off-season.

Arbitration eligible can get expensive in a hurry for someone who has produced like Donaldson. "Team control" is not what it could be for the arbitration process

[chopper0080]

So, I guess my final offer if Sano, Meyer and Arcia for Stanton, as long as Stanton will agree to a 6 year extension, which puts him under contract until he is 32.

 

Make that move, sign Hisashi Iwakuma, and fill in some defensive gaps and you have a contending team.

 

It won't happen, but it is a feasible move with the assets we have in terms of prospects and payroll.

 

Staff

Hughes

Iwakuma

Gibson

Nolasco

Mays

 

Bats

Stanton

Mauer

Dozier

Santana

Vargas

 

That could work, and you would still have Buxton, Berrios, Gordon, Polanco, Stewart, ect in the system.

[drjim]

What do people think of Jeremy Hellickson? I imagine he is available and could be had for a very reasonable price. Perhaps a bounceback candidate? 2 years of arb left.

[Physics Guy]

So, I guess my final offer if Sano, Meyer and Arcia for Stanton, as long as Stanton will agree to a 6 year extension, which puts him under contract until he is 32.

 

Make that move, sign Hisashi Iwakuma, and fill in some defensive gaps and you have a contending team.

 

It won't happen, but it is a feasible move with the assets we have in terms of prospects and payroll.

 

Staff

Hughes

Iwakuma

Gibson

Nolasco

Mays

 

Bats

Stanton

Mauer

Dozier

Santana

Vargas

 

That could work, and you would still have Buxton, Berrios, Gordon, Polanco, Stewart, ect in the system.

Iwakuma has a $7M option that the Mariners would be crazy not to pick up. 

[TheLeviathan]

What do people think of Jeremy Hellickson? I imagine he is available and could be had for a very reasonable price. Perhaps a bounceback candidate? 2 years of arb left.

 

Yup, I'd have him on my list for sure.  Cingarni, Straily, and Morrow might be on my list too depending on cost.

[chopper0080]

Iwakuma has a $7M option that the Mariners would be crazy not to pick up. 

 

Good to know, thanks for the info.

[tobi0040]

Yup, I'd have him on my list for sure.  Cingarni, Straily, and Morrow might be on my list too depending on cost.

 

Cingrani could actually happen.  I have it on good authority TR was trying to get him instead of Meyer in the Span deal.  That was before he was hurt all year and the Reds have a huge log jam in the rotation.

[Otto von Ballpark]

That's just it. It isn't just Sano. It's Sano, Meyer, Rosario, Walker, Wheeler, Kepler, and Harrison. All of them (except maybe Wheeler) look to be average to above pieces... several of whom could be stars. Adding Stanton and Latos might turn a 70 win team to an 80 win team, but I can say with certainty that some of thoe prospects will pan out and add far more wins over the life of their careers. This has Garza for Young written all over it...

Not to jump too far back, but of those 7 guys you list, only Sano and Meyer could be stars, really.  The rest are mid-tier at best prospects, who either haven't played above A-ball or haven't had a whole lot of success above A-ball yet.  The odds that any of them delivers great value as MLBers is not impossible, but not probable either.  (That said, their inclusion in any trade is more numbers-based insurance, really.)

 

Still, that leaves Sano and Meyer which are two very good pieces.  BUT, if you are legitimately concerned with either, you should be open to dealing them.  I suspect the Royals did this with Wil Myers (they pegged his ceiling lower than most observers)... the Rays did it with Delmon Young (albeit after a full MLB season -- damn, what a stupid trade for us)... the Mets probably did it with Gomez.  Obviously these guys can still become good players, but if you make your living judging baseball talent, and you think that a guy's ceiling is lower than most others predict, or he will take longer to reach his potential, or whatever -- you should explore capitalizing on that value difference to make your MLB team better, not just in the short run but the long run too.  KC held onto all kinds of prospects before Myers and got pretty spotty results from them.

 

The Twins seem to take the "we like all of our prospects" stance a little too much for my taste, probably colored by their well-established historical preference for cheap players and tolerance of losing seasons.  I guess that's better than making an incorrect value judgement on a young player (Garza, Ramos), but again, if you consider yourself good at judging baseball talent (Bill Smith should not have ), you are capable of making these kind of value judgements.  And if you are honestly looking to maximize success at the MLB level, you should probably swing one of these deals every once and awhile.

[tobi0040]

Not to jump too far back, but of those 7 guys you list, only Sano and Meyer could be stars, really.  The rest are mid-tier at best prospects, who either haven't played above A-ball or haven't had a whole lot of success above A-ball yet.  The odds that any of them delivers great value as MLBers is not impossible, but not probable either.  (That said, their inclusion in any trade is more numbers-based insurance, really.)

 

Still, that leaves Sano and Meyer which are two very good pieces.  BUT, if you are legitimately concerned with either, you should be open to dealing them.  I suspect the Royals did this with Wil Myers (they pegged his ceiling lower than most observers)... the Rays did it with Delmon Young (albeit after a full MLB season -- damn, what a stupid trade for us)... the Mets probably did it with Gomez.  Obviously these guys can still become good players, but if you make your living judging baseball talent, and you think that a guy's ceiling is lower than most others predict, or he will take longer to reach his potential, or whatever -- you should explore capitalizing on that value difference to make your MLB team better, not just in the short run but the long run too.  KC held onto all kinds of prospects before Myers and got pretty spotty results from them.

 

The Twins seem to take the "we like all of our prospects" stance a little too much for my taste, probably colored by their well-established historical preference for cheap players and tolerance of losing seasons.  I guess that's better than making an incorrect value judgement on a young player (Garza, Ramos), but again, if you consider yourself good at judging baseball talent (Bill Smith should not have ), you are capable of making these kind of value judgements.  And if you are honestly looking to maximize success at the MLB level, you should probably swing one of these deals every once and awhile.

 

I generally agree but I can't write off Walker as a non-stud.  He has 30 HR potential and I agree he has a long way to go but he did improve some with his OBP this year. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Cingrani could actually happen.  I have it on good authority TR was trying to get him instead of Meyer in the Span deal.  That was before he was hurt all year and the Reds have a huge log jam in the rotation.

Less of a log jam now, though, with Cueto, Latos, Leake, and even Alfredo Simon all set to hit FA next winter.  (And Alfredo Simon probably not even worth his final arb. award this winter)

[tobi0040]

Less of a log jam now, though, with Cueto, Latos, Leake, and even Alfredo Simon all set to hit FA next winter.  (And Alfredo Simon probably not even worth his final arb. award this winter)

 

True, but they are a contending team so I don't know that they will hand a spot on that talented team next year to Cingrani after the injuries.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I generally agree but I can't write off Walker as a non-stud.  He has 30 HR potential and I agree he has a long way to go but he did improve some with his OBP this year. 

Agreed, but at this point, Walker is a player with the potential to be a great PROSPECT, rather than already being a stud prospect with the potential to be a good MLB PLAYER.  He's an extra level removed than Sano/Meyer, with an appropriate downgrade in success odds/value.

 

Not that TR's baseball acumen can't also say "I like Walker more than the consensus scouting" and keep him -- but the problem is, he seems to always feel that way about all his prospects.

[Mike Sixel]

True, but they are a contending team so I don't know that they will hand a spot on that talented team next year to Cingrani after the injuries.

 

Their window is closing(ed).......IMO, they either need to spend more money, or start over.

[tobi0040]

Their window is closing(ed).......IMO, they either need to spend more money, or start over.

 

Tough to say.  It could be but I don't see them selling. They won 90 games in 2013 with basically the same team.  Votto missed 100 games.  They have plently of pitchers they could flip for bats.

[Physics Guy]

My preference is to go after one of the pitchers from Washington or Cincinnatti.  I think that means Gio Gonzalez or Matt Latos.  Of those two, I would prefer Gonzalez.  His salary structure would fit well with the Twins, but I suspect he would cost us a bunch of prospects.  Would a package of Polanco, Rosario and Gonsalves be enough?  Would you be willing to give that up. 

 

I would still rather they go after Lester/Scherzer/Shields in FA than give up prospects.  I'm not sure Ryan is willing to pay what it take to get one of those three.  The three years Gio has left would be more palatable financially, but would cost a handful of prospects.

[SwainZag]

My preference is to go after one of the pitchers from Washington or Cincinnatti.  I think that means Gio Gonzalez or Matt Latos.  Of those two, I would prefer Gonzalez.  His salary structure would fit well with the Twins, but I suspect he would cost us a bunch of prospects.  Would a package of Polanco, Rosario and Gonsalves be enough?  Would you be willing to give that up. 

 

I would still rather they go after Lester/Scherzer/Shields in FA than give up prospects.  I'm not sure Ryan is willing to pay what it take to get one of those three.  The three years Gio has left would be more palatable financially, but would cost a handful of prospects.

 

I think it's really a question if you would rather trade prospects for someone younger and cheaper or take the risk and give a 30+ year old a 6-7 year contract.

[lightfoot789]

Walker will be more valuable next year after he hits .320 with 33 HRs in AA.   If Carlos Gomez was a 26 year old rookie this year for the Twins - Would we be happy we held on to him or consider him not that good?  We all need to be patient on some of these difference makers in the minor leagues.  Some All Star players come from low draft rounds and require nurturing and patience (aka Carlos Gomez).   Most Good teams have 2 or 3 studs for position players and some really good role players with an outstanding tool between them.  We have those guys in our system and need to let them become them, in thier own time.  All trades don't return what you expect.  Patience

[SwainZag]

Walker will be more valuable next year after he hits .320 with 33 HRs in AA.   If Carlos Gomez was a 26 year old rookie this year for the Twins - Would we be happy we held on to him or consider him not that good?  We all need to be patient on some of these difference makers in the minor leagues.  Some All Star players come from low draft rounds and require nurturing and patience (aka Carlos Gomez).   Most Good teams have 2 or 3 studs for position players and some really good role players with an outstanding tool between them.  We have those guys in our system and need to let them become them, in thier own time.  All trades don't return what you expect.  Patience

 

Didn't he hit under .250 in A ball this year?

[Physics Guy]

I think it's really a question if you would rather trade prospects for someone younger and cheaper or take the risk and give a 30+ year old a 6-7 year contract.

Agree completely.  I honestly would be fine with either, just hope they try to add a pitcher to the rotation that is better than what they have.

[lightfoot789]

Didn't he hit under .250 in A ball this year?

That's higher than Dozier if we are making average more important than production. Both guys with low BA and high production numbers. What we deem important in minors is not as important at MLB level? Trout led league in Ks - go figure. Arcia's minor league numbers wouldn't indicate his struggles at MLB. Point being - predicting is hard to do and not a perfect science. I trust consistent production until it stops being productive. He's never not been productive. Ever. Unless someone has read something I've missed.

Edited October 4, 2014 by lightfoot789

[SwainZag]

That's higher than Dozier if we are making average more important than production. Both guys with low BA and high production numbers. What we deem important in minors is not as important at MLB level? Trout led league in Ks - go figure. Arcia's minor league numbers wouldn't indicate his struggles at MLB. Point being - predicting is hard to do and not a perfect science. I trust consistent production until it stops being productive. He's never not been productive. Ever. Unless someone has read something I've missed.

 

I wasn't saying he wasn't productive.  It was more aimed at your comment that Walker will hit .320 in AA next season, which I'm sure everyone would be ecstatic about it, it just seems like quite the prediction. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think we will be thrilled if he hits .320 with 30+ HRs in AA. I'm not holding my breath on that. I'll be thrilled if he can maintain his A+ BA and keep the power. This is going to be a very big jump for ABW.

[DocBauer]

I have to say, as much as I like Meyer and believe in his potential, I'm not opposed to including him in a deal for a top SP. This is provided said deal is for a true 1-2 option, or 2 with some upside still remaining and definitely under 30, preferably in the 25-28 yo range. Otherwise, you're back to an over 30 SP who could as many as 5 quality years, or as few as 3, and a larger contract. And you've traded a group of 3-4 prospects/players to get him. It assists in the short term, but again, may not be wise for a team getting younger and rebuilding. You might just be better off signing a FA and keeping the prospects for at least one more year, something I've already advocated.

 

While there may be a few options, including a couple buy low options, it seems to me the best of all worlds might be Ervin Santana on a 3 year deal for $42-45M. Possibly with a fourth year club option with a $1-2M buyout. Why would Santana sign with the Twins? A quality pitchers' park, a solid guaranteed contract, and the choice of manager, pitching coach, and even the presence of a quality Latin coach or two, plus the influx of young Latin talent on the club could all be factors in our favor.

 

Barring an injury or just another yo-yo season, and Santana has had a couple of those, the Twins keep their prospects but still upgrade the rotation, and as a result, the entire roster. And they do so without breaking the bank. Is Santana a #1? No. But how many #1's are really available without a major, major move or commitment? His career numbers rate him slightly better than Nolasco's, though a bit less consistent. And when on, or mostly on, he ranks very close to Hughes territory.

[DocBauer]

I am also hesitant to make a big trade for an OF, even though it's an area of need. The reason simply being again, I hate to trade prospect depth too early. There are also a few options over the next season or two that could play out nicely for us.

 

I don't know how real luck or karma truly are, but at worst, there are random factors that sometimes work for you, and sometimes work against you. On the milb side, the Twins had a lot of good happen this season. But there is no question Sano and Buxton fall in to a bad luck or unfortunate event status. I refuse to fall in to a pessimistic cycle. Buxton may take a couple years to hit full potential, a pretty obvious statement there, but should be up with the Twins for 2016, if not some time in 2015, providing excellent defense in CF, and at least some offense, if not quality offense. Combined with the still young, talented and improving but somewhat enigmatic Arcia, gives the Twins 2/3 of a starting OF.

 

Plouffe could provide some solid trade bait within the confines of the next year or so. He could still make a move to the OF. Santana could end up in LF instead of SS depending on his defense, and the play of Escobar. Rosario has the ability to be a quality LF and ML hitter with a combination of XB power and a little speed. Walker is probably a couple years away, but shouldn't be discounted.

 

Therefore, I'm still in favor of saving prospects, spending money that the Twins have to spend, even if they do make a significant SP signing, and go the FA route for an OF. The Twins could pop for 2 quality FA's, spending $25+M and STILL keep their 2015 payroll in the $92-95M area. They were nearly $86M in 2014 BEFORE paying for part of Morales' contract. Which means they already $90M or so '14.

 

Now, if there was a deal for prospects, not naming names, where they could acquire a young(ish) OF that the team could plug in and control for more than a couple years, then I rethink the trade option.

[DocBauer]

One more trade option/idea. MLTrade Rumors just did a nice write-up on the Twins, tossing out different ideas, opinions, possibles and names.

 

One idea tossed out that I find interesting is St Loius CF/OF Peter Bourjes. I confess to knowing nothing about him, but reputation appears that he is a quality defensive CF. He hits RH, appears to have a little speed and a little XB power, but no long term offensive success. He has one 500 AB season in which his numbers were solid, one addition season with decent numbers, and three low Avg seasons.

 

With Buxton on the way, I don't see the Twins making any major move for a CF unless it were someone like Rasmus who would be temporary before sliding to LF. Even if Washington were to let Span walk, and even if he were interested in a return to the Twins, I doubt there would be a dollars and years match, again, with Buxton on the way.

 

I think 2015 sees an upgrade for LF, with Hicks and Schafer as candidates to win the CF spot, or share it, for now. I think a 3rd option to compete with them, and also the 4th OF spot, would be prudent. I think there a couple inexpensive FA options that will be available for said competition. But an inexpensive trade option could be very welcome. Could Bourjes be that option? Does anyone have a decent report on him? Are there other options you might name?

[Willihammer]

I wonder if the Padres would be interested in a package centered on Plouffe, what they would give for it.

 

Think they'd trade Ross, Cashner, or Hahn?

[Physics Guy]

I wonder if the Padres would be interested in a package centered on Plouffe, what they would give for it.

 

Think they'd trade Ross, Cashner, or Hahn?

You are talking about three pretty good young pitchers.  Teams don't just unload those guys cheaply.  Plouffe could be the top player in the package, but I would think it would take a couple of pretty good prospects besides. 

Edited October 7, 2014 by Physics Guy

[TheLeviathan]

Could Bourjes be that option? Does anyone have a decent report on him? Are there other options you might name?

 

Lot of Bourjos talk above your post too.