Article: Should the Twins Emulate the Royals?

[Nick Nelson]

If the Royals lose tomorrow, did it really work though? They'll have spent two years of James Shields for a one-game playoff that ended in defeat. That's not the type of rebuild I want to see the Twins emulate. Trading away the #4 prospect in baseball for a near-miss and a WC berth in this era doesn't really feel like "mission accomplished" to me.

I'm going to say yes. Even if the strategy didn't result in a World Series, or even a deep playoff run, what the Royals have accomplished is a return to relevancy. They've recaptured the interest of fans who had turned away during a decade of losing. They have proven that they're willing to take bold steps to get to the next level rather than constantly playing the safe route.

 

There's value in that. The Twins, at this time, should recognize that as much as anyone.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Better they had muddled along with 75-78 wins the last two years?

Again, I don't want to get into this argument for the umpteenth time but you're essentially arguing that James Shields is +12 wins over Wil Myers.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm going to say yes. Even if the strategy didn't result in a World Series, or even a deep playoff run, what the Royals have accomplished is a return to relevancy. They've recaptured the interest of fans who had turned away during a decade of losing. They have proven that they're willing to take bold steps to get to the next level rather than constantly playing the safe route.

 

There's value in that. The Twins, at this time, should recognize that as much as anyone.

And that's fair. People have different goals and different measures of success. I lean more in the direction of "compete, then push for multiple division titles". I'm skeptical that the Royals are capable of doing that long-term.

[Mike Sixel]

Again, I don't want to get into this argument for the umpteenth time but you're essentially arguing that James Shields is +12 wins over Wil Myers.

 

That's not how it works, right? The defense would be worse, and this year at least, the hitting would be worse. 

 

There is value in signaling to the team that you are trying, right now, to win, imo.

 

Ok, how about 80 wins w/o the deal?

 

I'm with Nick, there is GREAT value to recapturing the fans, and signaling to the players you aren't going to wait 3-5 more years to matter. No way the Royals could sign a big time FA, so they had to deal for a legit leader of their staff. How many wins is Shields worth over Swarzak, in a year? How many wins is their current RF worth over Myers right now (not in the future, a future that may never come, but right now)?

[KGB]

The Twins need to stop trying to quick fix the staff and give the young player a chance.  We have 4th oldest pitching staff in the AL.  We keep acting like we a just a couple players away from contending, only probable is Trout and Kershaw are not available.  Four 90 loss season and the only rebuilding is done by accident.  If they hadn't screw up the CF position so badly, we never would have seen Santana get 400 AB's.  Time to let the young players play and then see what you need.  There are no quick fixes to the mess they have created.

[TheLeviathan]

Eh, I disagree but that's another argument in itself. With the new wildcard rules, I don't consider playing 163 games a great success.

 

Some teams play 165 and you call that a success then?

 

Being one of the final 10 teams playing is a success, trying to minimize that seems like sour grapes.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Some teams play 165 and you call that a success then?

 

Being one of the final 10 teams playing is a success, trying to minimize that seems like sour grapes.

Dude, just let it go. Seriously. We differ on opinion. That's okay.

[jokin]

The Twins need to stop trying to quick fix the staff and give the young player a chance.  We have 4th oldest pitching staff in the AL.  We keep acting like we a just a couple players away from contending, only probable is Trout and Kershaw are not available.  Four 90 loss season and the only rebuilding is done by accident.  If they hadn't screw up the CF position so badly, we never would have seen Santana get 400 AB's.  Time to let the young players play and then see what you need.  There are no quick fixes to the mess they have created.

 

Great post, and a turnover of the coaching staff can make some of this more possible.  It's inexplicable that a team in its 4th year of the rebuild would still have the 4th oldest pitching staff.  People forget that Gardy and the acting GM purposefully decided not to bring up Santana out of spring training after his tremendous showing in March, and given a trial run at SS while Florimon made it clearer in Rochester if he was up to the task, and also that Santana only got a starting gig, as literally, The Last Man Standing, after the Twins bumbled in losing multipleactual CFs off of waivers, and then, consecutive concussions from Hicks and Fuld.

[DocBauer]

Another nit to pick with the original article is four consecutive rebuilding years. I was thinking playoffs in the spring of 2011, as were most of us. Everyone got hurt, those that didn't get injured didn't perform and the season was a spectacular failure, but not a rebuilding year.

 

This.

 

We have to put frustration aside at times and take an objective look at the full context of the past 4 seasons. Not excuses for anything or anyone involved, but true context. After the success of 2010, I doubt there was anybody in the media, in baseball, or in fandom that didn't feel the Twins would rebound in 2011 for a winning season, probably playoffs.

 

2012 could be described as naive, I suppose. The Twins certainly made a few moves, tweaked the roster, counted on better health, and a return to better relevance. Was this denial? I think it's hard to really hard to say. If you had the core of a team coming off a just awful and unpredictable season one year removed from a 94 win season and division championship, would you be quick to dismantle and begin an immediate rebuild?

 

Now, I think 2013 was either a heads in the sand season, or the FO simply not wanting to admit they had no quick fix answers, and few prospects ready. So they tried to patchwork and sell a second-rate season with false hope based on a ton of "what if".

 

We did see a few kids get their first real shot over the past couple of seasons. The May and Meyer trades were probably the first salvos fired in the "rebuild mode" battle. In reality, the Twins have only been in rebuild mode for a season to season and a half, arguably two.

[DocBauer]

I'm going to say yes. Even if the strategy didn't result in a World Series, or even a deep playoff run, what the Royals have accomplished is a return to relevancy. They've recaptured the interest of fans who had turned away during a decade of losing. They have proven that they're willing to take bold steps to get to the next level rather than constantly playing the safe route.

 

There's value in that. The Twins, at this time, should recognize that as much as anyone.

 

Once again, forget your frustration with the past 4 seasons for a moment. It's been what, 29 years since the Royals reached the post season? So since the Royals, and their fans, last tasted a morsel of post season dessert, the Twins have won two World Series and have had how many division winners and wild card teams?

 

I think each franchise is and has approached their rebuild in different ways, and with a different sense of urgency. For the Royals, and their fans, it was time to do something more drastic. And to at least some degree, it has worked. At least in the short term.

 

Can the Twins just sit back with lethargy and simply wait for prospects to arrive? They could, but it would not only be unwise, but would seem to be opposite of the aggressive nature they've shown the last year or so with the signings of Hughes, Nolasco, even Pelfrey, Suzuki and the trial of Morales. We also took a real shot at Garza and at least a trial shot at Santana. Now, if we had done what I advised and hoped and gone hard after Kazmir, we might be in a little different situation now. (Guess my assistant GM application got lost in the mail somewhere)

 

I think for the Royals, a "go for it now and see what happens" mode is easier to understand and say yes to.

[kab21]

If it were me I would consider trading almost any prospect not named Buxton or Sano to pick up legit above average MLB talent (esp SP'ing).  Berrios or Meyer would require quite a haul though.  I don't force a trade but trades like Latos or Gio (or even Fister) are good examples of trades to look for.  Bud Norris is another.  Some of these guys are borderline aces while others are good #3's that pitched better.

 

Of course the better course is to spend the available money if there are starters out there.  And there are starters out there this year. 

 

2 years ago it wasn't the right time since the Twins didn't have much of a young core or players in the upper minors.  Now they have several young players establishing themselves and a lot of talent in the upper minors.  I could see the Twins adding 10 wins of internal improvement during the next two seasons as young players (Meyer, May, Berrios, Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Polanco, etc...) come up and others (Arcia, Vargas, Gibson, etc...) perform better.  Add a top pitcher (+5 wins) and it's a good team.

 

Imo this is what the Royals realized 2 years ago.  They had a young core that was establishing themselves and felt that these young players and other prospects would be worth 10+ wins over the next couple of seasons taking them from the low 70's to the low to mid 80's.  So they added a starter and 5 wins to make them playoff competitive. 

 

The Twins don't need to replicate the exact formula but they should recognize that they are close to the same point in the rebuild cycle (a young core) but without the same financial restrictions.  SPEND IT!

[TheLeviathan]

Dude, just let it go. Seriously. We differ on opinion. That's okay.

 

I kind of have, You should consider how you came in swinging with calling this season a non-success.  By that same logic the Twins were a non-success for all of the 2000s and you are vocally opposed to that argument everytime someone posts it.  And rightly so, but your arguments here are completely opposite here.

 

The Royals' move was a success and good for them.

Edited September 30, 2014 by TheLeviathan

[jokin]

We did see a few kids get their first real shot over the past couple of seasons. The May and Meyer trades were probably the first salvos fired in the "rebuild mode" battle. In reality, the Twins have only been in rebuild mode for a season to season and a half, arguably two.

 

This is demonstrably not true.  The rebuild tacitly began after the 2011 All Star Game.   The Twins announced that payroll was going to be drastically cut for 2012, in August of 2011.  They then quickly moved Young and Thome out of town, followed by Cuddyer, Kubel and Nathan opting for free agency in October after the Twins low-balled them.  Bill Smith was fired a week later, as Pohlad finally convinced Ryan that, as a rebuild specialist, was the right man for the job.

[DocBauer]

In regard to the actual question being posed by the thread; "should the Twins emulate the Royals?" my answer is a resounding NO. Not at this time.

 

The Royals made their moves for certain reasons, as I and everyone else have stated in opinion, but the situations between franchises are different.

 

In my mind, were the Twins to make a big trade move such as KC did, I'd be trading for said stud pitcher that is 30 or younger, preferably younger. Someone you can trade quality value to aquire quality value that you should be able to count on for several seasons, not a couple. I know said stud, frontline SP would help the team overall. But in addition to the prospect cost paid, for a rebuilding team like the Twins to give up, and other top prospects arrived and arriving, how soon could you expect all the other pieces to be in place to supplement the entire roster enough for that 1 SP to make enough of a difference to put the team over the top?

 

I'm fully in favor of a FA signing like E Santana this offseason on a 3 year, maybe 4 year deal. He would be a high quality addition without compromising payroll for the next few years to make other moves, or to resign Hughes. And it wouldn't cost us prospects. But if the Twins were to make a major trade move, I believe they'd be in much better position to do so a year from now.

 

A year from now, think how much stronger the Twins dealing hand could and should be? May, Meyer, Berrios and a couple other solid arms, including some top RP prospects should either be in Minnesota, or on the cusp. Position player wise Sano, Buxton, Rosario and Polanco would be a couple kids up, or nearly ready, or getting cups of coffee at least. Then you look at other options on the current roster that may have value as well, possibly being pushed aside, and the Twins, again, are much deeper and flush with talent to make a big move.

 

So no, don't follow the Royals. Not now. Follow the path we are now clearly on. Our 1st round pick is protected next year. Be willing to sacrifice the 2nd rounder this year for the one quality FA we need, possibly that one quality SP, and give the team, the minors and the prospects, this one more season to shine and make contributions. The entire perspective could change by that time. But we'd be in a much better strength of position at that time to move if need be.

[Twodogs]

When it comes to moving prospects for major league talent that is all fine and well unless we get Tommy Herr'd and they leave as soon as they can.  So Im all for moving pieces for sure things, but then again, nothing is a sure thing out there you need some luck.  As far as emulating the Royals, I'd rather not wait another 30 years for a playoff appearance.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I kind of have, You should consider how you came in swinging with calling this season a non-success. By that same logic the Twins were a non-success for all of the 2000s and you are vocally opposed to that argument everytime someone posts it. And rightly so, but your arguments here are completely opposite here.

 

The Royals' move was a success and good for them.

You're tilting at windmills. I didn't come into this thread swinging or anything close to it. I stated an opinion why I don't want to see the Twins emulate the Royals. That opinion happens to be different from your opinion.

 

Yet you continue to hammer away at it. Why? This is not an argument you can win, as we fundamentally disagree on the details and being that terms like "success" are subjective, we're not going to change the other's mind.

[TheLeviathan]

Yet you continue to hammer away at it. Why? This is not an argument you can win, as we fundamentally disagree on the details.

 

You're one of the first posters to come rushing in when Thrylos or someone else bashes the 2000s Twins for not winning anything and being unsuccessful.  And you're right.  Making the playoffs in baseball, over a grinding 162 season, is an accomplishment.  The playoffs are a crapshoot and I'd never call making them a non-successful season.  Especially when you haven't made them in three decades.  

 

I'm not sure why you feel the need to keep implying that's a bad thing.  Good for the Royals, even if you want to rain on their parade for whatever reason that may be.  

[Squirrel]

Moderator note: please stop this back and forth 'you started it' 'no, you started it' bickering.

[Rosterman]

Prospects are hit and miss;

Twins Prospects 2010: Hicks, Ramos, Gibson, Sano, Revere, Valencia, Gutierrez, Morales, Blomberg, Kepler. Who HAVE we traded. Who bombed. Who could we have traded for something more workwhile (Hicks, Gibson?)

Prospects for 2011: Gibson, Hicks, Sano Nishi, Wimmers, Benson, Revere, Hendriks, Salcedo, Bullock. Was this the year the Twins should'be dangled Benson and Hendriks. Get rid of Wimmers?

2012: Sano, Benson, Rosario, Hicks, Arcia, Michael, Hendriks, Gibson, Parmelee, Dozier. Gad, Benson was on everyone's radar. If the Twins had flipped Gibson and Benson for Sheilds, what we we be like right now. Let alone moving a promising Hicks and still having Revere getting on base every game.

2013: Sano, Buxton, Arcia, Gibson, Hciks, Berrios, Rosario, Kepler, Santana, Bard. Berrios is one of those guys you hangout there as tradebait. Or he is such a system surprise that he makes Kohl Stewart expendable. Could the Twins have moved Kepler, hoping he doesn't pan out and eventually becomes a minors free agent with some worth? Rosario's stock has fallen badly in two seasons.

 

You look who has made the team out of these 30+ names: Hicks,Gibson, Ramos (traded), Revere (traded), Valencia (let go), Nishi (stunk), Benson (released), Hendriks (let go), Arcia (young and powerful), Parmelee (running on fumes), Dozier (a .240 hitter with speed, power), Santana (is he a shortstop or an outfielder). 12 Top 10 Prospects made the Bigs over five years. 12! 3 Keepers and one a dream, still.

 

Another person mentioned Nolasco and Correia being untradable. I would hope that Nolasco has a little better stock than Correia. The secret to signing free agents is taking the chance that you can trade them and their salary. Willingham after 2012, yes. Willingham after 2013, no. 

 

Have the Twins ever had a real trader? Ryan is good at trading over-the-hill vteran signings for prospects. Maybe you get lucky with a Knoblauch or a Pierzynski...but you are trading a decent player for what are esssentially chaf from another team.

 

No matter how high you predict your top 2-3 prospects each year, there are a couple of guys who can move into that position every year. You deal from minor league strength, watch the coming free agent market, and also build a good bench/AAAA system.

[tobi0040]

This is demonstrably not true.  The rebuild tacitly began after the 2011 All Star Game.   The Twins announced that payroll was going to be drastically cut for 2012, in August of 2011.  They then quickly moved Young and Thome out of town, followed by Cuddyer, Kubel and Nathan opting for free agency in October after the Twins low-balled them.  Bill Smith was fired a week later, as Pohlad finally convinced Ryan that, as a rebuild specialist, was the right man for the job.

 

I think we need to distinguish between two different things.  When did the rebuild happen and when should the rebuild have happened?  As noted, the Twins had the 4th oldest pitching staff in baseball this year, year four of 90+ losses a year.  Signing guys like Pelfrey and Correia on one and two year deals, Jared Burtons, and taking low ceiling fliers on Bartlett and Kubel and simply not rebuild type moves.

 

Even all the free agents we have let go, none were moved for a meaningful piece.  Or how about playing young players that need work defensively out of position?

 

I think the Twins never fully embraced a rebuild because of the timing with the stadium.  The Houston Astros embraced a rebuild and are in a better place as a result.  The Twins did not want the payroll to go too low and tick people off.  Instead they chose to not be honest to themselves and the fans and acknowledge the reality of the situation.  I think this dip has lasted longer than neccesary as a result.

 

The other harsh reality is, had they acknowledged a rebuild maybe their manager would not have been fired. 

Edited September 30, 2014 by tobi0040

[Brock Beauchamp]

The Houston Astros embraced a rebuild and are in a better place as a result. 

While I differ in opinion about the concept of "rebuild", this isn't a fair statement. The Astros were in full-blown "we suck, we're starting over" mode when the Twins were still in the playoffs.

 

I'd hope they are ahead of the Twins because they've been awful for a long time. The last time the Astros won more than 76 games was 2008 and they blew up the franchise in 2010 while the Twins were were facing the Yankees in the postseason after a 94 win season.

 

Not to mention that the Astros finished this season with a 70-92 record. The very same record sported by our Minnesota Twins.

[tobi0040]

While I differ in opinion about the concept of "rebuild", this isn't a fair statement. The Astros were in full-blown "we suck, we're starting over" mode when the Twins were still in the playoffs.

 

I'd hope they are ahead of the Twins because they've been awful for a long time. The last time the Astros won more than 76 games was 2008 and they blew up the franchise in 2010 while the Twins were were facing the Yankees in the postseason after a 94 win season.

 

Yeah, they have been bad for awhile. But they had the same record with a collecton of young players that were gaining experience.  We had a series of them blocked or playing somewhere in the diamond that they will never play again.  Most have their minor league system rated better as well.

 

The comparison was not really the point I was trying to make though and probably took away from it.  The Twins never acknowledged a rebuild and made very non-rebuild type moves.  Everything the last 3-4 years should have been in the lens of a rebuild.  Had they done that, I think we would be better now.

Edited September 30, 2014 by tobi0040

[Brock Beauchamp]

Yeah, they have been bad for awhile. But they won more games this year with a collecton of young players that were gaining experience.  We had a series of them blocked or playing somewhere in the diamond that they will never play again.  Most have their minor league system rated better as well

Eh, both teams finished with the same record. While I agree that the Astros are "in a better place" because they played a metric ton of young players this season, they also had a full season headstart on the Twins (not to mention three additional years of top 15 picks before that point... going into 2011, the Twins farm system was atrocious).

 

Given that both teams finished 70-92 while the Twins farm was absolutely decimated by injury to top prospects, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if the Twins leap-frog the Astros in the next 24 months despite doing it with less draft picks and in a one year shorter timeframe.

 

And if that happens, then it's pretty apparent the Twins had the more effective rebuild.

[tobi0040]

Eh, both teams finished with the same record. While I agree that the Astros are "in a better place" because they played a metric ton of young players this season, they also had a full season headstart on the Twins (not to mention three additional years of top 15 picks before that point).

 

Given that both teams finished 70-92 while the Twins farm was absolutely decimated by injury to top prospects, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if the Twins leap-frog the Astros in the next 24 months despite doing it with less draft picks and in a one year shorter timeframe.

 

And if that happens, then it's pretty apparent the Twins had the more effective rebuild.

 

I fixed the error about the record, I remember them being ahead all year.  The comp wasn't the point I was trying to make though.

[tobi0040]

 

Given that both teams finished 70-92 while the Twins farm was absolutely decimated by injury to top prospects, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if the Twins leap-frog the Astros in the next 24 months despite doing it with less draft picks and in a one year shorter timeframe.

 

And if that happens, then it's pretty apparent the Twins had the more effective rebuild.

 

This may be your opinion, but the Astros have Altuve (24), Keuchel (26) Springer (25), Singleton (23) and Mchugh (27) on their team. A few young starters putting up league average numbers already and ahead of us on the experience curve.  They have Correa, Mccullers, and maybe something comes of Appel, and two top 5 picks next year. Certainly not a lock that we leapfrog them. Folks on Astros Daily may disagree

Edited September 30, 2014 by tobi0040

[Brock Beauchamp]

This may be your opinion, but the Astros have Altuve (24), Keuchel (26) Springer (25), Singleton (23) and Mchugh (27) on their team. A few young starters putting up league average numbers already and ahead of us on the experience curve.  They have Correa, Mccullers, and maybe something comes of Appel, and two top 5 picks next year. Certainly not a lock that we leapfrog them. Folks on Astros Daily may disagree

Oh, I wouldn't predict that the Twins leapfrog the Astros, simply pointing out there's a decent chance it happens if Sano, Buxton, Meyer, and Berrios hit the MLB squad in 2015.

 

A lock? No. A moderate chance of happening? Sure. The Twins might graduate four top 50 prospects in 2015. That's incredible to think about.

[tobi0040]

Oh, I wouldn't predict that the Twins leapfrog the Astros, simply pointing out there's a decent chance it happens if Sano, Buxton, Meyer, and Berrios hit the MLB squad in 2015.

 

A lock? No. A moderate chance of happening? Sure. The Twins might graduate four top 50 prospects in 2015. That's incredible to think about.

 

Sounds like no disagreement then.  But I am guessing you agree that had the Twins acknowledged a rebuild and embraced a young movement, we would be better in 2015 and 2016.  That was the point I was trying to make.

 

Kuechel  439 IP.  Mchugh 202 IP.  Cosart 240 IP.  Peacock 227 IP.  All are pretty young.  In addition to Altuve, Springer, etc. getting their feet wet.  This does two things.  Allows these guys to make adjustments and grow and gives the team clarity.  Sometimes you think a guy is going to be good and he isn't, but clarity is valuable too

Edited September 30, 2014 by tobi0040

[Brock Beauchamp]

Sounds like no disagreement then.  But I am guessing you agree that had the Twins acknowledged a rebuild and embraced a young movement, we would be better in 2015 and 2016.  That was the point I was trying to make.

No arguments that I think the Twins should have started playing the youngsters earlier, I just think the idea that they'd be markedly better is a bit overblown around here.

 

The Twins won't be good until Buxton, Sano, Meyer, Berrios, et al are playing. Up until around June of this year, they simply didn't have the horses in the farm system to compete... Which, unsurprisingly, is when I started becoming more critical of the front office as May and Meyer stayed in the minors instead of logging MLB time.

 

But in 2012 and 2013, the Twins simply didn't have good options anywhere. Arcia got time when he was ready, Gibson was a bit slow but they did the right thing and promoted him in 2013 and gave him innings so it's mostly a moot point. Past that, the Twins basically had three options to play:

 

- Bad veterans

- Raw minor leaguers without much talent

- Awful AAAA players

 

No matter what you do in that situation, you're going to field a bad team that isn't going to meaningfully improve because the players have a ceiling of mediocrity. Sure, I wanted to see Parmelee play more in 2013 but ultimately, it doesn't really matter because Chris Parmelee is not a very good baseball player.

[Cm1]

Other teams to emulate before KC:

The Rays, the A's, St. Louis, Cincinatti, the Nats. Only the Nats are well out of our revenue range, but they've built within pretty well. The truth is in 1-2 years we'll be fine. We really aren't that far off.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think in terms of the rebuild, it began when the Twins traded away Span and Revere for pitching. They may not have publicly stated as much, but that's when their actions indicated that this was a rebuilding team. I agree with what others said about 2011. That's a hindsight discussion. They had just come off of a 94 win season and were picked by many to return to the playoffs. Even 2012 was more of a 'we had a ton of injuries, so let's see what happnes when people are healthy'... It didn't work, but to me the rebuild started officially 2 years ago. They were fortunate to have 2 bad years prior to that to help stock the system.