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Article: Twins Top Prospects Part 2: 31-40 (Preliminary)


Seth Stohs

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Yesterday, we began looking at my preliminary Top 50 Twins prospects list by reviewing prospects 41-50. Today, we’ll look at the next ten prospects, 31-40. Again, this list is a combination of hard throwers and young, athletic hitters from around the diamond.Reminders: This list is preliminary. Following research for the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook 2015, as well as your feedback, I’ll provide my final Top 30 prospects list. Players eligible to be on this list include players who remain eligible for Rookie of the Year voting in 2015. That is to say, hitters with less than 130 at-bats and pitchers with less than 50 innings.

 

On last night’s Twins Hangouts, we discussed in a little more depth the choices for prospects 41-50. You can listen to that here.

 

Top Prospects 31-40

 

#40 – Aderlin Mejia – 22 – IF – New Britain Rock Cats/Ft. Myers Miracle

 

Mejia signed with the Twins out of the Dominican in 2010 and slowly worked his way up. As we have written many times before, he was at extended spring training to start the 2013 season (and likely would have gone to Elizabethton) when there was a need with the Miracle. He got an opportunity and took advantage of it. He hit .308 in 75 games. He began the 2014 season at New Britain, but after committing seven errors in 15 games he was sent back to Ft. Myers. He played all over. He played 45 games at second base, 24 at shortstop, 19 at third base and six at first base. Mejia is a speedy middle infielder with little power.

 

#39 – Jorge Fernandez – 20 – C – Elizabethton Twins

 

Fernandez was the Twins seventh round pick in 2012 out of high school in Puerto Rico. He spent two seasons in the GCL before moving up to Elizabethton in 2014. He hit .321/.361/.440 (.802) in 33 games with the E-Twins, with nine extra base hits. Fernandez is 6-3 and 190 pounds. He is very athletic, and there has been talk at times about moving him to the outfield. He threw out five of 13 base stealers (38%). He should move up to Cedar Rapids to start 2015.

 

#38 – Mason Melotakis – 23 – LHP – Ft. Myers Miracle/New Britain Rock Cats

 

Melotakis was the Twins second round pick in 2012 out of Northwestern State University where he pitched out of the bullpen. In 2013, he made 18 starts for Cedar Rapids. In 2014, he moved up to Ft. Myers where he made just two starts before he was moved into the bullpen. As a starter, he would sit 90-92. Out of the bullpen, he can reach back and hit 97. As important, he has developed his secondary pitches which should really him out of the bullpen. In early July, he was promoted to New Britain where he pitched in 13 games and struck out 17 while walking three in 16 innings. However, he missed time with a sore elbow. He was supposed to pitch in the Arizona Fall League, but he was still experiencing soreness in the elbow, so they shut him down. If healthy, he could see time with the Twins in 2015.

 

#37 – Jason Adam – 23 – RHP – Northwest Arkansas/Omaha/New Britain

 

Adam came to the Twins in the on July 31 from the Royals in exchange for Josh Willingham. He has worked primarily as a starter coming up in the minor leagues. He began this season in AA with 18 starts. He went 4-8 with a 5.03 ERA. He was promoted to AAA where he made eight appearances out of the bullpen. After the Twins acquired him, they said that he would be given the opportunity to start with the Twins organization. He is blessed with a fastball that reaches 94. He will pitch in the Arizona Fall League.

 

#36 – Michael Cederoth – 21 – RHP – Elizabethton Twins

 

Cederoth was the Twins 3rd round pick in 2014 out of San Diego State. In college, he was given a couple opportunities to start, but that didn’t go well. He was much more successful out of the bullpen. A 98 mph fastball in college will get a lot of outs. When he signed with the Twins, they allowed him to start at Elizabethton. In 45.2 innings, he gave up 41 hits, walked 18 and struck out 42. Long-term, my assumption is he’ll move to the bullpen though he will get the opportunity to start.

 

#35 – Brian Navarreto – 19 – C – Elizabethton Twins

 

Navarreto was the Twins sixth round pick in 2013 out of high school in Florida. He is a 6-4, 220 pound catcher with a very strong arm. He also has immense power. When I was in Ft. Myers in spring training, I saw him hit a long home run off of JO Berrios in an intra-squad game. He struggled in Elizabethton, though he missed some time with minor injury. He hit .194/.241/.370 with eight doubles and three home runs.

 

#34 – John Curtiss – 21 – RHP – Elizabethton Twins/Cedar Rapids Kernels

 

The Twins used their sixth round pick on the right-hander. He was the closer for the University of Texas during the 2014 season that culminated in a trip to the College World Series in Omaha. It was his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. Upon signing with the Twins, he was sent to Elizabethton where he made six starts after three relief appearances. He went 2-1 with a 2.30 ERA. In 31.1 innings, he walked seven and struck out 41. Following the E-Twins playoff series, Curtiss was promoted to Cedar Rapids and made a start for the Kernels in Round 2 of their playoff run. He threw five scoreless innings in a no-decision. He will be given the opportunity to start.

 

#33 – Aaron Slegers – 22 – RHP – Cedar Rapids Kernels/Ft. Myers Miracle

 

It was an up and down 2014 season for the 6-10 Slegers. He got off to a quick start in Cedar Rapids before really struggling. However, he turned things around and ended the season with three starts in Ft. Myers where he went 2-1 with a 3.32 ERA in 19 innings. Not overpowering, Slegers mixes three pitches. He also has very good control considering his long arms. He threw 132.1 innings before reaching his innings limit and being shut down.

 

#32 – Levi Michael – 23 – 2B – Ft. Myers Miracle/New Britain Rock Cats

 

Michael was the Twins first round pick in 2011 out of the University of North Carolina. Unfortunately, he has spent much of his career to this point injured. Finally healthy, Michael was able to play most every day for Ft. Myers, and he hit. He hit .305/.375/.395 (.770) with 12 extra base hits in 45 games. However, he fouled a ball of his foot and missed nearly two months. After a short return to the Miracle, he was promoted to New Britain where he hit .340/.444/.358 (.803) in 15 games. Although 2014 was his third year of pro ball after three years in college, he is still just 23 years old. He needs to stay healthy, but 2014 gave fans a glimpse that he could be a solid utility guy or even a regular second baseman if needed in another year.

 

#31 – Mitch Garver – 23 – C – Cedar Rapids Kernels

 

Garver was drafted by the Twins in the ninth round of the 2013 draft out of the University of New Mexico. He had been the runner up for the Johnny Bench Award for top collegiate catcher. In 2014, he spent the entire season in Cedar Rapids where he became a force in the middle of the Kernels lineup. He was my choice for Twins minor league hitter of the year after he hit .298/.399/.481 (.880) with 29 doubles, 16 homers and 79 RBI. He played well behind the plate as well. He threw out 32% of would-be base stealers.

 

 

So, what do you think of Part 2, Prospects 31-40? Next up will be prospects 21-30.

 

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I think Garver should be higher on the list. His defense is good and his approach at the plate indicates that he should hit well in the majors. He's a bit old for his league, so I don't think he has a future of .880 OPS type work, but I think he can be a good hitting/good defending catcher and eventually take the role every day.

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Another great sign that the Twins have a lot of depth in the minors...

 

Seth can't find room in the Top 30 for one of his personal favorite prospects! 

 

Seriously, though, I hope BA puts him in the top-30, as I would really like to read what they have to say about his defensive (and offensive) projection.

Edited by TRex
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I'm really curious about Sickle's rankings of the system this offseason. I'm guessing Garver would garner a C+ ranking right now as a guy far down with some very nice upside... Looking at these lists, I'd imagine he's going to have quite a few C+ guys, well more than the 20 to 25 he normally does. I wouldn't be shocked if he has 15 guys with a B- or better. That alone is pretty impressive given how stingy he can be with those letter grades.

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Navaretto is going to be another year older at Betsy next year.

 

  

Garver- 1/15/91 soon turns 24

Navaretto- 12/29/94 soon turns 20

 

No doubt that Navaretto will have to do better than just a full-time, short-season spot at "Betsy" next year for him to continue being a Twins Top 40 prospect, but at this point, they are almost exactly 4 years difference in age and only 1 level developmental difference within the organization.

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This discussion is really the thing that makes prospect rankings so difficult. Age-to-level of competition is one piece of that formula. You guys have outlined that. Ceiling is another aspect, and I would say maybe "perceived ceiling" is a better way of putting that. We've all heard it, and if you've seen Navarreto, the comparisons to Salvador Perez are legit. Will he get there? Who knows? Garver may not have that type of upside, but his ceiling is solid major league catcher. Garver is probably more likely to reach his ceiling than Navarreto is. It's also possible neither of them see AA (though I feel pretty good about both being able to do that, but who knows). 

 

Similar discussion can be had about Levi Michael and Aderlin Mejia. Mejia is a little bit younger. I see both as utility guys in the big leagues though I think that Michael would have a better chance to be an adequate start in MLB.  If healthy, I think Michael has higher upside even though he's a year or so older. Injuries have been a problem for him.

 

So, keep the questions and discussion rolling. That's the fun of it. Like I wrote in the comments yesterday, I hope all will take all of this information and develop your own lists too. It's fun!

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This discussion is really the thing that makes prospect rankings so difficult. Age-to-level of competition is one piece of that formula. You guys have outlined that. Ceiling is another aspect, and I would say maybe "perceived ceiling" is a better way of putting that. We've all heard it, and if you've seen Navarreto, the comparisons to Salvador Perez are legit. Will he get there? Who knows? Garver may not have that type of upside, but his ceiling is solid major league catcher. Garver is probably more likely to reach his ceiling than Navarreto is. It's also possible neither of them see AA (though I feel pretty good about both being able to do that, but who knows). 

 

Similar discussion can be had about Levi Michael and Aderlin Mejia. Mejia is a little bit younger. I see both as utility guys in the big leagues though I think that Michael would have a better chance to be an adequate start in MLB.  If healthy, I think Michael has higher upside even though he's a year or so older. Injuries have been a problem for him.

 

So, keep the questions and discussion rolling. That's the fun of it. Like I wrote in the comments yesterday, I hope all will take all of this information and develop your own lists too. It's fun!

 

It seems like getting assigned to the AFL is a big deal., and even with the boatload of drafted pitching prospects, Jason Adam somewhat quietly got the nod.  Any idea on where the Twins think Jason Adam ends up to start out in  2015? And in what role?  He's Rule 5 eligible, so the decision to protect him presumably is in the offing  

Edited by jokin
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The only guy I disagree with is ASlegers. I do not see much upside. I see Chris Young at BEST.

 

A Chris Young ceiling still seems deserving of a ranking.  Any player that has a ceiling of a MLB player should have considerations for being ranked.  Mejia's ceiling might be Nick Punto, that's still of worthy consideration.

Edited by nicksaviking
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The "individual preference" factor is huge, obviously. My personal bias is to generally make a a guy "earn" a higher ranking. As a result, with the rare exceptions of 1st-2nd round draft picks and 7-figure bonus international FAs, I'm inclined to rate a player who has at least demonstrated some level of proficiency at full-season low-A over a player who hasn't yet. Probably call it an "until I've seen him with my own eyes" bias.

 

That, for me, takes precendence over the age/level comparison. For example, having seen Garver, I'd have him further ahead of Navaretto than Seth does. Maybe I just feel the washout rate for a 19 year old who hasn't proven himself over a full season yet is so much more of a probability than it is for a 23 year old who excelled over a full season of low-A ball in his first year of professional baseball.

 

Reading these two lists of the 31st thru 50th prospects, I began wondering what the realistic number is for projecting them to have Major League careers, regardless of how brief and regardless of whether it's eventually with the Twins or another organization. (Because, let's be honest, the 'downside' of having an enormously deep farm system is that you will not be able to protect all of the prospects with MLB potential throughout their MiLB careers. You will lose some.)

 

It just seems to me, already in the 31-50 range, that there are a lot of these guys (most of them, in fact) that I would borderline "expect" to see succeed to reach that level (having true success in the big leagues is a whole different question, however). And that number should go up as you look at 1-30.

 

But what's reasonable to expect? Even half of the top 50 to reach the Show? More? Less?

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It seems like getting assigned to the AFL is a big deal., and even with the boatload of drafted pitching prospects, Jason Adam somewhat quietly got the nod.  Any idea on where the Twins think Jason Adam ends up to start out in  2015? And in what role?  He's Rule 5 eligible, so the decision to protect him presumably is in the offing  

 

I don't know that its' a "big deal." I think it's a great opportunity for the players who get to play there. I think the Twins can use it, particularly on Adam, to have more data points to evaluate (specifically whether or not he is added to the Rule 5). 

 

I don't think an AFL assignment affects a prospect ranking. 

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Seth - does the fact that Cederoth projects long term as a reliever knock him down a little in the rankings?  I hope the Twins give him at least another year at starter for Cedar Rapids.

 

Probably a little, though the fact that he could be a very dominant, 98-99 mph throwing reliever keeps him this high. He needs to work on his control, and I definitely hope that he does get the opportunity to start in 2014 and maybe even further. He needs to work on control and secondary pitches, so starting will give him more opportunities to do just that.

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In my mind Michael and Melotakis are too low.  It will be interesting to see who is ranked above them.  One is a pitcher that will be here either next year or 2016 and one is a prospect to could replace Brian Dozier when traded.

 

I can see both being a little higher. Melotakis could be a dominant LH Reliever, touching 97, but we know he won't be starting in the big leagues. There are also some concerns about his elbow which could cost him some time... I hope not though. 

 

Sure, Michael could be a big league 2B. I see him more as a potential utility infielder. He's no Nick Punto though. I don't think. If he is, he should be higher.

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The "individual preference" factor is huge, obviously. My personal bias is to generally make a a guy "earn" a higher ranking. As a result, with the rare exceptions of 1st-2nd round draft picks and 7-figure bonus international FAs, I'm inclined to rate a player who has at least demonstrated some level of proficiency at full-season low-A over a player who hasn't yet. Probably call it an "until I've seen him with my own eyes" bias.

 

That, for me, takes precendence over the age/level comparison. For example, having seen Garver, I'd have him further ahead of Navaretto than Seth does. Maybe I just feel the washout rate for a 19 year old who hasn't proven himself over a full season yet is so much more of a probability than it is for a 23 year old who excelled over a full season of low-A ball in his first year of professional baseball.

 

Reading these two lists of the 31st thru 50th prospects, I began wondering what the realistic number is for projecting them to have Major League careers, regardless of how brief and regardless of whether it's eventually with the Twins or another organization. (Because, let's be honest, the 'downside' of having an enormously deep farm system is that you will not be able to protect all of the prospects with MLB potential throughout their MiLB careers. You will lose some.)

 

It just seems to me, already in the 31-50 range, that there are a lot of these guys (most of them, in fact) that I would borderline "expect" to see succeed to reach that level (having true success in the big leagues is a whole different question, however). And that number should go up as you look at 1-30.

 

But what's reasonable to expect? Even half of the top 50 to reach the Show? More? Less?

 

Personal bias, time seen players playing, practicing, are things that can't be quantified, and frankly, I don't think any prospect list should be viewed based solely on any one thing. And, I do think visual should play into this as well. SDBuhr saw this year's Cedar Rapids team play probably 80+ times this year and the same last year. He's visibly seen what these guys can do. His "bias" is pretty valuable in my opinion and that can increase or decrease a player's rankings in his mind. 

 

I do think it would be interesting to look back at my previous Top 50 lists and do some sorting. Find out a percentage of guys I had in the 41-50 range or the 31-40 range who got even a cup of coffee... or Top 10 prospects who don't make it. Of course, that will also depend on the quality of the farm system. I may have to do that in the offseason.

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The "individual preference" factor is huge, obviously. My personal bias is to generally make a a guy "earn" a higher ranking. As a result, with the rare exceptions of 1st-2nd round draft picks and 7-figure bonus international FAs, I'm inclined to rate a player who has at least demonstrated some level of proficiency at full-season low-A over a player who hasn't yet. Probably call it an "until I've seen him with my own eyes" bias.

 

That, for me, takes precendence over the age/level comparison. For example, having seen Garver, I'd have him further ahead of Navaretto than Seth does. Maybe I just feel the washout rate for a 19 year old who hasn't proven himself over a full season yet is so much more of a probability than it is for a 23 year old who excelled over a full season of low-A ball in his first year of professional baseball.

 

Reading these two lists of the 31st thru 50th prospects, I began wondering what the realistic number is for projecting them to have Major League careers, regardless of how brief and regardless of whether it's eventually with the Twins or another organization. (Because, let's be honest, the 'downside' of having an enormously deep farm system is that you will not be able to protect all of the prospects with MLB potential throughout their MiLB careers. You will lose some.)

 

It just seems to me, already in the 31-50 range, that there are a lot of these guys (most of them, in fact) that I would borderline "expect" to see succeed to reach that level (having true success in the big leagues is a whole different question, however). And that number should go up as you look at 1-30.

 

But what's reasonable to expect? Even half of the top 50 to reach the Show? More? Less?

 

I would push back in two ways.

 

First, production for a senior sign in Low A doesn't mean a whole lot to me. College players, even lower round picks, should beat this league up. It's not his fault he was assigned here and it is his first year, but I wouldn't move him up anywhere considering the pedigree of his tools based on his draft position.

 

This brings me to the second point, when I think of rookie leagues and low a, I am much more interested in scouting reports of tools/stuff than I am about raw numbers, which serves to both put the brakes on an older guy ripping up those leagues and getting down on a younger guy who struggles. High A is where I start focusing more on numbers but it isn't until AA until that is the primary indicator in my mind.

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Personal bias, time seen players playing, practicing, are things that can't be quantified, and frankly, I don't think any prospect list should be viewed based solely on any one thing. And, I do think visual should play into this as well. SDBuhr saw this year's Cedar Rapids team play probably 80+ times this year and the same last year. He's visibly seen what these guys can do. His "bias" is pretty valuable in my opinion and that can increase or decrease a player's rankings in his mind. 

 

I do think it would be interesting to look back at my previous Top 50 lists and do some sorting. Find out a percentage of guys I had in the 41-50 range or the 31-40 range who got even a cup of coffee... or Top 10 prospects who don't make it. Of course, that will also depend on the quality of the farm system. I may have to do that in the offseason.

Reviewing the past lists would be a lot of fun. However, the prospect quality today, going 50-deep is so vastly superior to what it was just a few years back. And the quality at the top in comparison? There was year not long ago when your top 6 pitching prospects, in order, were Anthony Swarzak, Carlos Gutierrez, David Bromberg, Kevin Mulvey, Tyler Robertson, and Anthony Slama. If you had to dig deeper, you were naming guys like Rob Delaney in he next tier. And you didn't misfire with the rankings, Seth. You won't find guys down the list that emerged.

 

Today? Compare those guys to Alex Meyer, Kohl Stewart, Jose Berrios, Lewis Thorpe, Trevor May, and Nick Burdi. And when you dig deeper into the system, you find a tier populated with guys like Stephen Gonsalves,Fernando Romero, Zack Jones, Taylor Rogers, JT Chargois, Jake Reed, and Michael Tonkin.

 

You'd probably compare the 8 pitchers you've listed so far very favorably with the top 8 pitchers from the list headed up by Swarzak, don't you think? In my opinion, the quality and depth of pitching talent right now is almost hard to fathom, and I've been looking at this stuff since the 1960's.

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I would push back in two ways.

 

First, production for a senior sign in Low A doesn't mean a whole lot to me. College players, even lower round picks, should beat this league up. It's not his fault he was assigned here and it is his first year, but I wouldn't move him up anywhere considering the pedigree of his tools based on his draft position.

 

This brings me to the second point, when I think of rookie leagues and low a, I am much more interested in scouting reports of tools/stuff than I am about raw numbers, which serves to both put the brakes on an older guy ripping up those leagues and getting down on a younger guy who struggles. High A is where I start focusing more on numbers but it isn't until AA until that is the primary indicator in my mind.

 

I don't even consider this a "push back," because I essentially agree. I don't necessarily agree quite so much with draft position as being a pedigree, but I guess since I conceded that I give some weight to 1-2 round picks and 7-digit bonus IFAs, I can't say I give NO weight to draft pedigree, either.

 

If you just look at numbers, yeah a Garver SHOULD beat up on low-A pitchers, so why put any stock in it?

 

It's when you watch a guy that you can tell if he's putting up numbers because the 20 yr old pitchers he's facing can't show him anything he didn't see in the SEC/ACC/B1G or whether it's because that batter has skills that will allow him to be successful against anyone of any age. Is he only hitting "mistakes" or is he also making contact with a pitcher's best stuff? I could give you names of guys who have come through CR that have been in both categories. That's what I was getting at when I said I want to see a guy for a full season before I feel he's "earned" a higher ranking. And I do feel Garver is in that group.

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The farm is much deeper. Helps when you lose a lot and get high picks, Makes your job much, much easier. The hard part is drafting and developing guys not picked in the top 10......

 

I read someone's piece recently about how, moreso in baseball than other sports, you have to be able to draft/sign elite players and if you draft in the lower half of the league, you can just about forget it. maybe that's true.

 

However, if you take Gordon, Buxton and Stewart out of the Twins' pipeline, this would still be a pretty deep organization, wouldn't it? Those are the only 3 guys who wouldn't have been available to the Twins if they were picking LAST in every round for the past 3 years.

 

Now, I like the situation better WITH those 3 guys, of course. But the work that was done to assemble the farm system beyond those 3 blue chippers reinforces, for me, that TR and his staff have done an excellent job in that aspect of their work since he took over the GM chair again.

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There was year not long ago when your top 6 pitching prospects, in order, were Anthony Swarzak, Carlos Gutierrez, David Bromberg, Kevin Mulvey, Tyler Robertson, and Anthony Slama. If you had to dig deeper, you were naming guys like Rob Delaney in he next tier. And you didn't misfire with the rankings, Seth. You won't find guys down the list that emerged.

 

Please stop, you're scaring the children.

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I read someone's piece recently about how, moreso in baseball than other sports, you have to be able to draft/sign elite players and if you draft in the lower half of the league, you can just about forget it. maybe that's true.

 

However, if you take Gordon, Buxton and Stewart out of the Twins' pipeline, this would still be a pretty deep organization, wouldn't it? Those are the only 3 guys who wouldn't have been available to the Twins if they were picking LAST in every round for the past 3 years.

 

Now, I like the situation better WITH those 3 guys, of course. But the work that was done to assemble the farm system beyond those 3 blue chippers reinforces, for me, that TR and his staff have done an excellent job in that aspect of their work since he took over the GM chair again.

Exactly. Picking #1-10 gives you roughly a 75% chance of an All Star performer while picking #20-30 lowers it to under 25% as I recall from one study that's been mentioned here a lot. 

 

Isn't it funny how people inclined to find a way to criticize can have it both ways. You see, now that the farm system is perhaps five times better than, say, Detroit's, ALL the credit goes to 3 years of high draft choices. Three draft picks. But when there is mention of failed picks, NONE of the failure is ever more than begrudgingly attributed in some small part to the draft order.

 

The truth of the matter is that the organization is far better than the average organization at scouting, drafting, signing, and developing players. Having top choices 3 years running does make it easier for sure, but it's not the only reason our system may be as much as 5 times better than Detroit's.

Edited by bird
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I pay way more attention to the Twins farm system now (thanks to Twinsdaily) than I ever did in the previous years. With baseballreference.com, it is interesting to look back at the minors stats of Twins players from the 80s - 90s. I'd love to spend more time on how many of "good" Twins didn't play much AAA and debuted (and stuck) in their early 20s. I'm sure times change, but there are several guys in this 40-31 that seem to not be that far away from giving it a go in the bigs (by the standards set by previous Twins). 30-1 must include a lot of other almost ready guys. Just randomly, Puckett, Gaetti, Hrbek, Knoblauch, Radke, Milton, Erickson, Koskie, etc., didn't really play AAA. Are they exceptions to the rule or do a lot of very good MLB players start their MLB careers at 23 or 24? If so, why not spend 2015 and '16 playing a lot of these guys in the majors and hope that potential holds the interest of the fans until we have an actual contender 3 years from now?

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