Article: The Twins Have a Problem

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

As someone who believes a manager change and coaching changes could bring immediate improvement, I would be eager to join a ticket buying group again, starting next year.

[DuluthFan]

The Twins need to make moves early in the offseason to stem the loss of season ticket holders. They need to sign two impact starting pitchers to generate interest in next year's team. Not middle of the rotation signings but top of the rotation players. Of course this will mean the unproven young prospects will need to work harder to break into the rotation, but at this point the Twins can't afford to wait to see if they might be able to play at the major league level. There must be visible proof that the team is trying to improve.

 

A couple of corner outfield sigings would help as well. One for left and one to back up Arcia for when he goes into one of his many frustrating slumps. While he has played OK at times, there is still room for a more consistent player.

[jokin]

I think the stars and moon need to align for this team to be competitive into September next year.  I really don't see us trading for a top pitcher and it would cost Sano or Buxton to get one via trade, so I just don't see that either.

If I am right, we are basically then bringing back the same players and asking 2-3 rookies to improve the team by 15 games or so.

 

I haven't done extensive research, but how many Phil Hughes-types, circa 2013, are out there on bad contracts that might be available at steep discounts?  I've mentioned Trevor Cahill as one example, who certainly would command far less than a top prospect in trade for the D-Backs to get out from under his big contract next season.  Jon Niese has less upside and a smaller contract, but also a more predictable level of middling-to-possibly-very good performance potential.  These are just two of many SPs placed on conditional waivers in August, presumably their current clubs are looking for indications of interest to possibly part ways and presumably are amenable and motivated enough to trading for less than a Buxton or Sano.  (The Tigers acquired David Price for 1 and 1/3 years, and they only had to give up Austin Jackson, who has the exact same bWAR in the last 3 years as Denard Span, and Drew Smyly).   

[Mike Sixel]

Season ticket numbers correlate very well with the prior season's results.....so, tickets will likely be well down next year, since this year was bad, the new smell of the stadium is now a stale smell, and there is no ASG. Good luck to the team selling tickets.

 

Given how cheap they are on the secondary market (though, as someone pointed out, that will shrink too), I have no idea why anyone pays face value if they are a casual fan.

[Old Twins Cap]

I had season tickets a couple of years ago, and as this article mentions, selling them on Stub Hub had become impossible for the entire month of September.  But, the main thing is, going to a baseball game is supposed to be relaxing, it's a form of entertainment.  Invariably, I would leave Target Field in a WORSE MOOD than when I left home seeking entertainment and relaxation.  The Twins ARE THAT BAD.   At that point, given all the other venues for having a good time in the Twin Cities, going to a Twins game plunges to the bottom of the list.  And that's where they sit, sadly incapable of noticing that they are ripping the heart out of their fan base.

[Nick Nelson]

I haven't done extensive research, but how many Phil Hughes-types, circa 2013, are out there on bad contracts that might be available at steep discounts?  

This is a great question that is probably worth exploring with a full article.

 

 

Invariably, I would leave Target Field in a WORSE MOOD than when I left home seeking entertainment and relaxation.  The Twins ARE THAT BAD.

I know exactly what you mean. I went to a game with my mom this summer -- a particularly bad game -- and I was getting so irritated with what was happening on the field that I kinda started snapping at her and acting crabby. The next day I felt horrible about my behavior and had to call her and apologize. But it is tough to continually watch a team you care about play so, so poorly.

[Nick Nelson]

 They need to sign two impact starting pitchers to generate interest in next year's team. Not middle of the rotation signings but top of the rotation players. Of course this will mean the unproven young prospects will need to work harder to break into the rotation, but at this point the Twins can't afford to wait to see if they might be able to play at the major league level.

It's not a bad idea in theory but is it actually plausible? Nolasco and Hughes will be there because of contracts and (in Hughes' case) performance. Gibson will be there. So if you sign two more impact pitchers who are highly paid and guaranteed spots, there's no room for May or Meyer, or Berrios when he's ready (maybe as soon as the AS break).

 

The Twins aren't going to spend nine figures to get one of the top starters on the market, so the "impact" arms they'd be adding would probably be in the Nolasco range, and as we know all too well, there's no assurance with those guys. Maybe no more so than Meyer or May.

[DaveW]

The twins should introduce a program where if they are more than 3-4 games under .500 they cut the price of beer in half.

[USAFChief]

the stagnating traffic and activity on sites like ours,

 

Not to derail an excellent thread but...you guys are planning on hardballing the mods over salary in contract negotiations this winter, aintcha?  

[Rosterman]

My wife and I were 20-game season ticket holders the first three years. We dropped last year, mainly becuase of our own schedules, but also saw that we could go to most any game and get decent seats for a modest [price. This year, it was even better.

 

Yes, you have to have season ticket sales to create StubHub seats. If you don't have substantial sales to season ticket holders, where 1-3,000 of those seats will be released at various prices to the fans, than the alternative is that the team had Game Day sales, which can actually prove to be a higher return -- if the team is winning.

 

Plus, the more availability of closer-to-game-day group sales.

 

Last night, we went to the game, had tickets in 215 for $12, right behind home plate. We could've gotten cheaper seats in the upper reaches. My wife's daughter and husband were at the game and had seats they won from work in 105, which we sat in briefly when they left. 

 

But there is no need for season tickets when you can buy cheaper tickets on line, or when there are tickets readily available at pretty much any price range direct from the Twins (this month, buy a ticket and get free food!). 

 

So, we took the light rail instead of parking. We dropped $44.00 on food.concessions. We left before Fien (who needs to be shut dowen) and Burton (why is a potential free agent getting closer duties) took the ball and made it a closer than need be game. Just because the light rail is a lot longer than our trip would be by car.

 

I don't know how they are going to attract season ticket holders. This year, between the All-Star game (which many season ticket holders couldn't afford) and the promise of a competitive team (truthfully, we expected the rotation to be so much better, and Willingham to rebound, and Mauer to be Mauer, and Plouffe to hit 20 homers, and we even felt good when Morales was signed and the Twins were still in the win-column hunt) which couldn't even challenge the White Sox down the swoon drive. 

 

Changes have to happen. But we can't give up on prospects we don't know anything about on the field (yes, they could ALL be Aaron Hicks light), or can we. Who wants to come here and run the team. Will they be given total freedom to spend and sign, or trade anyone and everyone (including Mauer, Sano, Buxton, Kohl Stewart if need be) to produce a winner. If you bring someone in from outside, the need for them is to win sooner rather than later. If you advance from inside, you tell people you are continuing The Twins Way and things will happen.

 

Field staff needs to be changed, shaken, up, no matter. We need to put on the field a group that will gel and work together for 3-5-10 years, like the last couple of groups, preferably from a field staff rich minor league system I'm not sure if there is a manager from outside the organization that would make anyone want to buy season tickets.

 

And the Twins need to spend...with the thought that if the team wins and even though the season ticket base may be 50% of what it is today, a winning team will sell more walkup tickets, and late season ticket packages, and get people into Target Field to buy concessions and souvenirs (what did we spend last nite?) and not make the aisles of Target Field seem like a ghost town that it wa from the sixth inning on. 

 

A #1 starter. It might be a $125/150/200 million dollar gamble. You need to bring in a veteran hitter, not necessarily in their prime, but solid enough to play somewhere everyday, and keep the clubhouse alive.

 

You need a coaching staff that will push the players to be exciting, and to play ball as well as they can, not the way that they should be playing it, but a way that they can play it and succeed.

 

I shake my head at the Worley success. I shake my head that a potential fan fave like Ben Revere, for his shortcomings (getting on base at least once every game and getting to second a third of the time too) gets panned even in Phily. That Morneau may win a batting title. That Cuddyer walked and won a batting title. That Torii Hunter is still playing ball. That Target Field was supposed to make us not only continuously competitive, but that we could keep our own free agents if desired, people who had a fan base and were good for the image of the team.

 

Mauer is still the franchise, but he isn't making the Twins a must see anymore. I could actually picture him NOT being on the team, and that is a strong stretch on my love of the team.

 

I am excited about Vargas and Santana, who still have to have a sophomore year. I want to think highly of Arcia. I shake my head at the talent of Hicks and wonder...how...why.

 

I don't see cheaper tickets. I don't see the team doing a shakeup. I don't see them spending. I don't see them releasing real financials so we know how good they have done the past couple of years, still maintaining decent attendance, sponsorships and concession costs.

 

I see a lot of bitching and moaning about the high cost of players, the competitiveness of the division, the need to give our coaches time, the promise of all-star players down the road built from within. The budget, we can only spend this much (50%) on payroll. (I still haven't figured out how you sped $50 million on a hundred million, than CAN spend $100 million on $200 million, and it still is the same thing...did operations double when you moved into Target Field, too).

 

But I'm still going to watch them on television, listen to them on the radio (except when the signal dies between cities...huh), and see what tickets are for a game and applaud the ushers who patrol their sections like moving into an empty seat is a cardinal sin.

 

And why would I want to go to Twinsfest, if it is the same old same old with less player contact, higher prices, and...fan friendly, okay, define.

[tobi0040]

I don't see cheaper tickets. I don't see the team doing a shakeup. I don't see them spending. I don't see them releasing real financials so we know how good they have done the past couple of years, still maintaining decent attendance, sponsorships and concession costs.

 

 

I think the Twins can either be pro-active and lower prices for next year, or they can wait a month when nobody comes, then cut them.  I think it will look much worse if they wait until the season starts.

Edited September 24, 2014 by tobi0040

[Mike Sixel]

 (I still haven't figured out how you sped $50 million on a hundred million, than CAN spend $100 million on $200 million, and it still is the same thing...did operations double when you moved into Target Field, too).

 

 

 

Can anyone answer this? I have asked it before.......

[twinsguy14]

I know they have problems and I too have been frustrated about the last four years and more frustrated with the money put into the Pohlads pockets and not into the team but I am and always will be a Twins fan.  I can never forget they gave me the two greatest moments any sports fan can dream of in 87 and 91.  Yes it is a while ago but it's still something no other team in this market has done. (Sorry Lynks)  For that reason I can be patient and loyal and be able to see a light at the end of the tunnel.  I know that TR's plan is the right one for the long haul.  I will do my due dilligence and let them know of my frustration but I will choose to be positive instead of negative.  I know things will get better. 

[Mike Sixel]

23 years ago? That doesn't buy much for anyone under 25, or that has moved here in the last 20 years.....it also doesn't buy much for people less loyal than you. Would you keep buying your favorite beverage if is used to be good 20 years ago, but was now awful?

[drjim]

Can anyone answer this? I have asked it before.......

 

Operations costs did go up significantly. The short answer is that the Twins are solely responsible for running operations at Target Field while Metropolitan Sports Commission (I think that's the name) ran operations at the Metrodome.

 

A couple other things to consider with spending. The Twins actually pumped quite a bit into Target Field in terms of covering overage costs and doing pretty substantial upgrades each of the past two seasons. These have been in the $10-20 million range from what I saw, with overages being much higher.

 

They also have pumped money into the minor league complex in Fort Myers. There was public money but the Twins also spent a lot of their own. They have also spent additional money on complexes in other countries and other upgrades on scouting, etc. It takes some digging but you can find articles on this.

 

This is not to say they aren't making plenty of money, they are, but I also think they are making some good investments that will pay off down the line and will be valuable to be in place when (hopefully) the team is good again and they have their payroll closer to the limit. This extra money  is also going to dry up next year with the lost season tickets and the lost sponsors (which is the true catastrophe) and the lost leverage they will have in the next TV deal.

[drjim]

On the bigger points of does owenership realize this and what can they do about it, I think the answers are of course they are and not much.

 

The Pohlads aren't stupid, they have been around business long enough and have enough smart people working for them to realize how bad the situation is. They can read a balance sheet and forecast.

 

The bigger problem is there really is nothing they can do. As stated above the biggest driver of season ticket sales is the previous year. I would guess almost every fan has made up their mind one way or the other. The could sign big time free agents or they could ritually sacrifice Gardy next to the Kirby Puckett statue and it won't move the needle more than a handful of tickets.

 

Two things matter - winning and exciting young players. Without the first they have tried to push the second, but fans are rightly skeptical. They can sign free agents but the fact is that if this new wave doesn't break through with some stars it will be some ugly (or at least mediocre) baseball for a while. It will make fans long for the days when they were getting bounced in the first round.

[tobi0040]

A couple other things to consider with spending. The Twins actually pumped quite a bit into Target Field in terms of covering overage costs and doing pretty substantial upgrades each of the past two seasons. These have been in the $10-20 million range from what I saw, with overages being much higher.

 

 

The Twins did a good job broadcasting that they paid excess construction costs out of their own pocket.  Ths is yet another distortion of reality and spin job.

 

The rough numbers on the stadium was the Twins put up $150M and the tax payer put up $300M.  Then the Twins kicked in another $15-$20M and told everyone how great they were.  Meanwile, the value of the team went up over $400M+ since the stadium. 

 

Example.....If I put a gold deck on my house and get the gold for free.  I pay $5K in labor and the value of my house goes up $50K.....should I complain about the $5K I had to pay in labor?

Edited September 24, 2014 by tobi0040

[drjim]

The Twins did a good job broadcasting that they paid excess construction costs out of their own pocket.  Ths is yet another distortion of reality and spin job.

 

The rough numbers on the stadium was the Twins put up $150M and the tax payer put up $300M.  Then the Twins kicked in another $15-$20M and told everyone how great they were.  Meanwile, the value of the team went up over $400M+ since the stadium. 

 

Example.....If I put a gold deck on my house and get the gold for free.  I pay $5K in labor and the value of my house goes up $50K.....should I complain about the $5K I had to pay in labor?

 

I didn't say it was a bad deal for them, just money out of their pockets, part of the difference in money spent as revenue goes up. And it has been more than $15-20 mil.

 

And while the value went up that is not tangible money in their pockets right now, while the overage expense is tangible money out of their money that cuts into current year operating income (or it is amortized over some time). 

 

I don't really like defending the Pohlads, but spinning things worse than they are is not any better than the spin the Pohlads do themselves.

[nicksaviking]

The Twins did a good job broadcasting that they paid excess construction costs out of their own pocket.  Ths is yet another distortion of reality and spin job.

 

The rough numbers on the stadium was the Twins put up $150M and the tax payer put up $300M.  Then the Twins kicked in another $15-$20M and told everyone how great they were.  Meanwile, the value of the team went up over $400M+ since the stadium. 

 

Example.....If I put a gold deck on my house and get the gold for free.  I pay $5K in labor and the value of my house goes up $50K.....should I complain about the $5K I had to pay in labor?

 

Meanwhile Detroit taxpayers were asked to pay for only 33% of the Tigers stadium and St. Louis had the tax payers pay for 12% of theirs. 

 

Doesn't quite look Kosher to me considering those clubs have also received revenue sharing in the past couple of years AND they present the fans with rosters and payrolls in line with a level of competitveness they expect from their players.

 

But what would I know, I'm terrible at econ, stats and math in general.

Edited September 24, 2014 by nicksaviking

[tobi0040]

I didn't say it was a bad deal for them, just money out of their pockets, part of the difference in money spent as revenue goes up. And it has been more than $15-20 mil.

 

And while the value went up that is not tangible money in their pockets right now, while the overage expense is tangible money out of their money that cuts into current year operating income (or it is amortized over some time). 

 

I don't really like defending the Pohlads, but spinning things worse than they are is not any better than the spin the Pohlads do themselves.

 

Viewing cash flow out of their pocket as something that should be a consideration here is silly, IMO.  On several fronts.

 

A - the value of the team went up almost $400M

 

B - They are making money on an annual basis every year

 

C- If you buy a bigger house, of course your maintenance costs go up.  $15M a year in maintenance on a $500M stadium is 3%. The equivalent of $6,000 a year on a $200K house.   They knew this going in and it was still a great deal for them, the numbers were crunched and this made sense and they moved forward.  So I don't want to hear complaints about upkeep.

 

D - I assure you revenue went up more than maintenance expenses

 

This is not spin, these are facts.

Edited September 24, 2014 by tobi0040

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

But what would I know, I'm terrible at econ, stats and math in general.

Ok, then start with this:

 

66 - 96 = x

[drjim]

Viewing cash flow out of their pocket as something that should be a consideration here is silly, IMO.  On several fronts.

 

A - the value of the team went up almost $400M

 

B - They are making money on an annual basis every year

 

C- If you buy a bigger house, of course your maintenance costs go up.  $15M a year in maintenance on a $500M stadium is 3%. The equivalent of $6,000 a year on a $200K house.   They knew this going in and it was still a great deal for them, the numbers were crunched and this made sense and they moved forward.  So I don't want to hear complaints about upkeep.

 

D - I assure you revenue went up more than maintenance expenses

 

This is not spin, these are facts.

 

I agree on everything. The question I originally responded to was where did the additional expenses come relative to the the additional income. I appreciate Part C for providing part of that answer.

[drjim]

Meanwhile Detroit taxpayers were asked to pay for only 33% of the Tigers stadium and St. Louis had the tax payers pay for 12% of theirs. 

 

Doesn't quite look Kosher to me considering those clubs have also received revenue sharing in the past couple of years AND they present the fans with rosters and payrolls in line with a level of competitveness they expect from their players.

 

But what would I know, I'm terrible at econ, stats and math in general.

 

And considering the abomination of a Vikings stadium currently being built, we didn't learn the lesson.

[Steven Buhr]

the stagnating traffic and activity on sites like ours,

 

Not to derail an excellent thread but...you guys are planning on hardballing the mods over salary in contract negotiations this winter, aintcha?  

 

When I read that, I had a similar thought. "Guess they're going to cut their writers' compensation package." But I don't care how much their traffc stagnates, I will NOT pay TD to let me write for them.

Edited September 24, 2014 by Steven BUHR

[twinsnorth49]

I was so hoping this would turn into another  discussion on the Pohlads vs the Hennepin County taxpayers........

[Mr. Brooks]

It's not a bad idea in theory but is it actually plausible? Nolasco and Hughes will be there because of contracts and (in Hughes' case) performance. 

 

Terry Ryan takes offense at that statement. 

[Ben B]

I live a few hours from Minneapolis, so it's tough for me to see games live anyway. However, in the past, and even into 2011 and 2012 I'd make the trip a few times a year. This season and last season, though, I went to two and one games respectively. And only when I had friends and family going. There is absolutely no incentive for out-of-towners to go to Target Field anymore to see baseball. Even buying a cheap ticket on stubhub, it's not worth the time and money to use all that gas, pay $15-20 for parking, and then get bled dry on the concession prices too. 

 

The last game I went to was a gorgeous Saturday night in August against a good team (the Tigers), and I felt like I was in a graveyard at Target Field. The crowd was not into it and barely paying attention. I felt like I had to use my inside voice. 

 

Some of what's gone wrong with the Twins with injuries and such was out of their control, but they seemingly shoot themselves in the foot at every possible opportunity - especially from a PR standpoint. It's about to get seriously ugly if changes aren't made this offseason. 

Edited September 24, 2014 by Ben B

[snepp]

Ok, then start with this:

 

66 - 96 = x

 

x = 2013

 

 

Also acceptable, x = 2012

[Steven Buhr]

A certain number of people will go to games for the baseball and a certain number will go for the social event. The thing is, one drives the other and when the baseball is bad, the baseball people go less often and the crowd shrinks. When the crowd shrinks, the event itself is seen less and less as being a fun social event and that component of the base stops showing up, too.

 

The Twins have, as Nick indicated, dug themselves a significant hole and there's no single way out. But they're going to need some creative thinking to reengage their fan base.

[drjim]

I would add another perspective. My uncle and cousin are renewing their season tickets (1/2 season) for about the 20th consecutive year. That is a lot of ugly baseball they have sat through and they are still going strong. I don't think they will ever give up their tickets and I suspect that there is some baseline number that the Twins will draw no matter how bad they get. This is probably around 10,000 full season equivalents, perhaps a little more and I think they will get pretty close to that.

 

I do think they have a shot to regain a little bit of their ticket mojo next year. It will matter not what they do in the offseason (though a manager change could help initiate a narrative), but would begin with a decent start out of the gates, young players (especially Sano and Buxton) emerging in the middle, and being relatively competitive through the middle of September. Gorgeous summer days with a representative team that is flirting with competing and exciting young players will bring out fans. And if they are doing this, it won't matter how they market it.