Article: Twins Top Prospects Part 1: 41-50 (Preliminary)

[Seth Stohs]

Since the end of minor league season, we have handed out some minor league awards. On Monday, the Twins announced that Kennys Vargas and JO Berrios were named their choices for Twins minor league hitter and pitcher of the year in the minor leagues.

 

Today I’m going to start a preliminary Top 50 Twins prospects list and welcome your feedback. Today, I’ll post Part 1: Prospects 41-50. Players eligible to be on this list include players who remain eligible for Rookie of the Year voting in 2015. That is to say, hitters with less than 130 at bats and pitchers with less than 50 innings.(The list is preliminary. Following research for the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook 2015, I’ll provide my final Top 30 prospects list.)

 

Top Prospects 41-50

 

#50 – Lewin Diaz - 17 – 1B – Dominican Summer League

 

The 17-year-old was the Twins bonus baby when he signed for over $1 million in 2013. In 2014, he made his professional debut in the DSL. In 43 games, he hit .257/.385/.451 (.836) with 13 doubles and five homers. He walked 26 times and struck out 24 times. Still young, he has immense power potential. He should make his debut next season in the States, likely in the GCL.

 

#49 – Ryan Eades - 22 – RHP – Cedar Rapids Kernels

 

The Twins second round pick in 2013 out of powerhouse LSU, Eades spent his entire first full season in Cedar Rapids. It was a disappointing season for the 22-year-old right-hander. He went 10-11 with a 5.14 ERA in 25 starts. In 133 innings, he gave up 147 hits, walked 50 and struck out just 98. Eades has three solid pitches. He just really struggles with consistency, not only from game-to-game but often from inning-to-inning.

 

#48 – Tanner English - 21 – OF – Elizabethton Twins/Cedar Rapids Kernels

 

English was the Twins 11^th round pick this June after three seasons at the University of South Carolina. He had previously been a 13^th round pick out of high school in 2011. He signed late and then missed some time with a shoulder injury. However, at Elizabethton, the 21-year-old hit .316/.439/.474 (.913) with 10 extra base hits in 32 games. He was then promoted to Cedar Rapids for their second round playoff series. He is a good combination of power, speed and defense.

 

#47 – Jonatan Hinojosa - 22 – IF – Cedar Rapids Kernels/Elizabethton Twins

 

Hinojosa is all about speed and defense. The infielder has a good glove at all three spots. He is 5-11 and just over 150 pounds. He served a 50-game PED suspension early in the season and came back to play in Elizabethton. He was promoted back to Cedar Rapids where he finished with 20 strong games. He hit .341/.378/.494 (.872) in 92 plate appearances. Combined, he stole 23 bases in 27 attempts.

 

#46 – Max Murphy - 21 – OF – Elizabethton Twins/Cedar Rapids Kernels

 

Murphy is from Robbinsdale, Minnesota, and the Twins drafted him in the ninth round this year out of Bradley. Murphy is just shy of 6-0 and compactly built. He has good power and it was on display at Elizabethton. He was named the Appalachian League hitter of the year when he hit .378/.483/.723 (1.206) with seven doubles, two triples and 10 homers in 35 games. He was then promoted to Cedar Rapids where he came down to earth, though he did hit seven doubles and four homers in 32 games.

 

#45 – Dalton Hicks - 24 – 1B – Ft. Myers Miracle

 

Hicks was the Twins 17^th round pick in 2012 out of Central Florida. He has been a big run producer since signing with the Twins. His grand slam in extra innings gave the E-Twins and Appalachian League championship in 2012. Hicks led minor league baseball in RBI in 2013 with 110. He spent 2014 in Ft. Myers where he hit .262/.344/.407 (.751) with 24 doubles, 11 home runs and 76 RBI. At 6-5 and about 250 pounds, Hicks is lumbering, but he has tremendous power.

 

#44 – Jason Kanzler - 24 – OF – Cedar Rapids Kernels/Ft. Myers Miracle

 

The 24-year-old spent four years at the University of Buffalo where he won two college Gold Glove awards. Kanzler’s can play above-average defense at all three outfield positions. He strikes out a lot, but he packs a lot of power. In 84 games at Cedar Rapids, he hit .286/.334/.448 (.782) with eight doubles, eight triples and nine home runs. He moved up to Ft. Myers where in 27 games he hit .267/.476/.430 (.906). His two-run homer in the tenth inning of the FSL championship series Game 4 gave the Miracle their first championship with the Twins. Overall, he had 32 extra base hits. He also stole 27 bats in 34 attempts combined. And, of course, we must Feat the Stache!

 

#43 – Rainis Silva - 18 – C – GCL Twins

 

After a year in the DSL in which he hit just .223 (.539 OPS), Silva came to the States right away in spring training. At 18 in the GCL, he hit .270/.294/.342 (.636) with nine doubles. He ended the season quite strong though. He is known more for his defense. He has good size and a strong arm. He threw out 39% of would-be base stealers in 2014. He also spent 10 games at first base and had just one error.

 

#42 – Felix Jorge - 20 – RHP – Cedar Rapids Kernels/Elizabethton Twins

 

It was an interesting season for Felix Jorge. He began the season at Cedar Rapids but struggled immensely, posting a 2-5 record with a 9.00 ERA in 39 innings (12 games). He was sent back to Elizabethton where he was the Appalachian League Pitcher of the Year. He went 4-2 with a 2.59 ERA. He is 6-2 and lanky. As he grows, he should add more velocity. 2015 will be a big year for Jorge as he attempts to show he can get Midwest League hitters out.

 

#41 – Brett Lee - 24 – LHP – Ft. Myers Miracle

 

Lee was the Twins 10^th round pick in 2011 out of St. Petersburg College. He was a Florida State League All-Star in 2014 when he went 10-5 with a 2.45 ERA. He has good stuff and good control. However, his strikeout rate has dropped quickly. He struck out 9.9 batters per nine innings in 2012 at Elizabethton. In 2013 in Cedar Rapids, he struck out 6.9 per nine innings. In 2014, he struck out just 4.6 per nine. He has good stuff, so I suspect the numbers will continue to be solid and his strikeout rate will come up some.

 

So, what do you think of Part 1, Prospects 41-50? Next up will be prospects 31-40.

 

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[AlwaysinModeration]

From this list, I see Jorge, Murphy, and maybe Diaz with the biggest long-term upside.

 

Seth, can you list their ages as you do this? Thanks

[TRex]

You know we are heading in the right direction when it seems everyone should be higher than they are... we have 2 prosepects in the 41-50 range that earned player of the year honors for their league!

[Seth Stohs]

From this list, I see Jorge, Murphy, and maybe Diaz with the biggest long-term upside.

 

Seth, can you list their ages as you do this? Thanks

 

Good suggestion. I just added the ages into the header for each player. It's a good idea because it adds some perspective.

[Seth Stohs]

You know we are heading in the right direction when it seems everyone should be higher than they are... we have 2 prosepects in the 41-50 range that earned player of the year honors for their league!

 

I was thinking the same thing... There are no less than 5 of these guys that I feel like I should have higher... but I don't know that I could put them ahead of the guys I have in the 31-40 range... But I think this shows the depth of the organization when these types of prospects are ranked this low.

[Mike Sixel]

Murphy is 21 and was playing against HSers......he better be at/near hitter of the year. Not discounting his accomplishments, but saying that a college kid dominated HSers isn't that big a deal, I'd think.

 

This is a list, imo, of guys that have talent, but we aren't sure how much talent really. They are either young, or very inconsistent. 

[Seth Stohs]

Murphy is 21 and was playing against HSers......he better be at/near hitter of the year. Not discounting his accomplishments, but saying that a college kid dominated HSers isn't that big a deal, I'd think.

 

This is a list, imo, of guys that have talent, but we aren't sure how much talent really. They are either young, or very inconsistent. 

 

That's why he is still in the 40s. If it were about just numbers, he'd probably be a bit higher. That said, a player can only play against the competition he's playing against, right? It just all factors in.

[clutterheart]

Jorge - is probably the most head scratching performance this year.  

In a year when lots of prospects went down with injuries, he seemed to stay healthy but just couldn't get Single A prospects out.

 

I think he was a top 20 at the start of the year.

 

Jorge  & Eades have to be two of the guys whose rankings fell the most. - Unless Baxendale is not even ranked -  To be honest I am surprised Eades is on this list at all.  If wasn't a second round pick he would be just another guy, 

[Mike Sixel]

That's why he is still in the 40s. If it were about just numbers, he'd probably be a bit higher. That said, a player can only play against the competition he's playing against, right? It just all factors in.

 

i was more replying to the other comment, saying how awesome the system must be if a guy that won an award is in the 40s.....I get what you were doing, and agree with you.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Agree on all counts... lots of these guys would be much higher on other lists. That bodes well for the future of our system.

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

I am mystified!! I may be biased in regards to Brett Lee as he is my AAP but I had him and Dalton Hicks in my top 30 quick list. There must be players I forgot. Still both should be higher!!

 

Are people like May and Vargas still on the prospect list??

[clutterheart]

I am mystified!! I may be biased in regards to Brett Lee as he is my AAP but I had him and Dalton Hicks in my top 30 quick list. There must be players I forgot. Still both should be higher!!

 

Are people like May and Vargas still on the prospect list??

 

Hicks will be 25 at the start of the season next year and has yet to play AA ball.  His OPS was .751 in High A baseball.  I am mildly surprised his is on this list at all.

 

Bret Lee will be 24 next year and might be starting AA next year (not a given).  His strike out numbers were way down and his walks were up.  But he was injured so he deserves some slack.

I think he is about right.

[Badsmerf]

Wow you are low on Jorge. 42? A huge fall IMO. Jorge did have a terrible year in CR, but he still has stuff and projectability. I don't think he is a top 20 guy with what he showed this year, but that is just too low.

[Seth Stohs]

I am mystified!! I may be biased in regards to Brett Lee as he is my AAP but I had him and Dalton Hicks in my top 30 quick list. There must be players I forgot. Still both should be higher!!

 

Are people like May and Vargas still on the prospect list??

 

Just to point this out... I'm not claiming my list is perfect. I like to, when the season is over, put together this preliminary Top 50 list to create a bunch of discussion. As I (along with Jeremy and Cody) write the Prospect Handbook, we learn a lot more about these players, look deeper into the stats, get scouting reports from various people. And, when the book comes out, we'll each include our new Top 30. I definitely encourage people to take this list and alter it and create your own as well. There's nothing wrote with Hicks and Lee being Top 30 guys. They're both legit big league prospects if things go well.

 

Vargas is well over the 130 at bat limit. May should remain under the 50 IP limit, so he'll be on here.

[Badsmerf]

I am mystified!! I may be biased in regards to Brett Lee as he is my AAP but I had him and Dalton Hicks in my top 30 quick list. There must be players I forgot. Still both should be higher!!

 

Are people like May and Vargas still on the prospect list??

Determining rookie status:

A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues; or ( accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list).

 

I don't think either will be considered rookies next season. May has 39.2 IP, but has been on the roster for more than 45 days. Vargas already has 212 ABs.

 

I take that back about May. 25 player limit, to me, means outside of September. So unless he hits 50 IP, he will be a rookie next season.

Edited September 23, 2014 by Badsmerf

[Seth Stohs]

Wow you are low on Jorge. 42? A huge fall IMO. Jorge did have a terrible year in CR, but he still has stuff and projectability. I don't think he is a top 20 guy with what he showed this year, but that is just too low.

 

You may be right. I'll be curious to get some more reports on what he was throwing in CR. Was he just cold? he was very good in ETown, but he was last year too. Also consider all of the SPs that were promoted to CR from ET (Hu, Gonsalves, Thorpe and Romero before that, Batts, Curtiss)... 

[IndyTwinsFan]

Hard to have much argument with these 10, all things considered.  Nice to see some kids seemingly coming out of the team's seemingly strong presence in the Dominican Republic, especially ones I don't recall hearing of before (like Diaz at #50 and Silva at #43).  Encouraging news for the future!  Hopefully, some of them will pan out.

[drjim]

Determining rookie status:

A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues; or ( accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list).

 

I don't think either will be considered rookies next season. May has 39.2 IP, but has been on the roster for more than 45 days. Vargas already has 212 ABs.

 

I take that back about May. 25 player limit, to me, means outside of September. So unless he hits 50 IP, he will be a rookie next season.

 

Yes, May will still be a rookie.

 

Guys to exhaust rookie eligibility are Santana, Vargas, Pinto, Tonkin. Actually an OK class, should be 4 guys on the roster for the next several years. And a lot more to come.

[Brandon]

I don't get too caught up in the numbers outside of the top 10 maybe top 20 because the difference from #40 and #21 is not that great and is subjective to the eye of the beer-holder. Debating who are top 10 prospects makes more sense.  I view the top 50 as an opportunity to learn more about our prospects. 

[drjim]

I don't get too caught up in the numbers outside of the top 10 maybe top 20 because the difference from #40 and #21 is not that great and is subjective to the eye of the beer-holder. Debating who are top 10 prospects makes more sense.  I view the top 50 as an opportunity to learn more about our prospects. 

 

I tend to think it makes sense to analyze prospects through tiers and through types. One reason I really relate to John Sickels and how he does prospects. He ranks them, but gives grades, which gives some sense of tier, and also explains well what a letter at each level truly means and lets the individual rank it as they see fit. A grade C in AA is much different than a grade C in low A or rookie ball.

[Seth Stohs]

I don't get too caught up in the numbers outside of the top 10 maybe top 20 because the difference from #40 and #21 is not that great and is subjective to the eye of the beer-holder. Debating who are top 10 prospects makes more sense.  I view the top 50 as an opportunity to learn more about our prospects. 

 

And that is why I do a top 50 rather than the standard top 10s or top 20s.

[drjim]

I tend to think it makes sense to analyze prospects through tiers and through types. One reason I really relate to John Sickels and how he does prospects. He ranks them, but gives grades, which gives some sense of tier, and also explains well what a letter at each level truly means and lets the individual rank it as they see fit. A grade C in AA is much different than a grade C in low A or rookie ball.

 

I should add to this that this is not a critique but instead a personal preference. Seth does incredible work with the minor leagues and that is not repeated often enough. I look forward to the rest of the list.

[nicksaviking]

Hicks will be 25 at the start of the season next year and has yet to play AA ball.  His OPS was .751 in High A baseball.  I am mildly surprised his is on this list at all.

 

Bret Lee will be 24 next year and might be starting AA next year (not a given).  His strike out numbers were way down and his walks were up.  But he was injured so he deserves some slack.

I think he is about right.

 

Hicks was pretty brutal the first couple months of the season but really turned it on in the second half.  Perhaps someone should have been updating his AAP page more frequently

[2wins87]

I still have Jorge and Eades in my top 30, but both have had discouraging performances so I understand why they are down here.  I think the talent level for both of them merits a bit higher placement, though of course it's next year that will ultimately determine whether they deserve a higher ranking.

[2wins87]

I really like the this part of the list because it always introduces me to guys that aren't even on my radar yet.  Looking forward to the rest.

[Monkeypaws]

I still have Jorge and Eades in my top 30, but both have had discouraging performances so I understand why they are down here.  I think the talent level for both of them merits a bit higher placement, though of course it's next year that will ultimately determine whether they deserve a higher ranking.

 

I was at a game that Eades started in CR, and Jorge ended up finishing. I thought Jorge's stuff was much more electric than that of Eades. I think they shipped him to E'town shortly thereafter....