Article: How Can the Twins Prevent Runs?

[Cody Christie]

"To win the game, you've gotta score more runs than the other team"--- Ricky Henderson, baseball's all-time runs leader

 

Or prevent fewer runs than the other team.

 

The 2014 Twins have actually done a very good job when it comes to scoring runs; their 4.39 runs per game are seventh highest total in all baseball. Where the Twins fall short is in the run prevention department; they allow 4.84 runs per game and that is the third worst total in baseball.To get back to the franchise's winning ways, the Twins are going to need to find answers to the question of how to allow fewer runs.And although a big part of that is improving on the team-wide ERA of 4.53, another big part is improving the Twins defense.

 

The Twins have been rough at a few different defensive positions this season. For the purposes of this article, SABR's Defensive Index will be used. This is one of the stats used to select the Gold Glove Winners.

Catcher:

 

Of qualifying catchers, Kurt Suzuki has been fifth worst in the American League. He has a negative rating through games of September 7, 2014. The Twins signed Suzuki to an extension around the trade deadline this year. This means the organization lkely won't be improving defensively in this area.

 

First Base:

 

Joe Mauer's transition to a new position has been fairly smooth. He already had a little experience at first base and he is an athletic individual. Only Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera rank higher than him among AL first baseman. It wouldn't be surprising to see him at the top of the list as early as next year.

 

Second Base:

 

Many fans might think Brian Dozier deserves a Gold Glove for his defense. He makes some spectacular plays but he also has plenty of misplays and errors. Dustin Pedroia and Ian Kinsler are way ahead in the AL second base rankings because they don't make mistakes. If Dozier could improve defensively, his value would increase even with some of his recent struggles at the plate.

 

Third Base:

 

This year, Trevor Plouffe's improved defense might be the most surprising change of all. In previous seasons he's looked like a stiff wall at third base. He is becoming more comfortable at the position and he ranks fourth in the AL at the hot corner. It will be interesting to see where Plouffe's future lies. Is it at third base or will he have to move for Miguel Sano?

 

Shortstop:

 

The plan wasn't for Eduardo Escobar to be at short when the Twins left spring training. But that's how baseball works. He hasn't been spectacular at shortstop but it's still good enough to rank third in the AL. Former Twin JJ Hardy is well ahead of the rest of the shortstop world and he's a free agent this off-season. Could Danny Santana do as well as Escobar at shortstop? The Twins haven't wanted to find out.

 

Outfield:

 

A variety of outfielders came through this season so none of these players figure into the SABR Defensive Index. Minnesota will keep Oswaldo Arcia in one of the corner spots even though he is below average in the field. Center field could be a question mark. Santana has been adequate and he could get better with more repetitions at his new position. Left field could be up for grabs. Byron Buxton and his strong defensive ability could debut next year but that would come later in the season.

 

Shortstop and left field seem to be the areas where the Twins could make the greatest improvement. If Aaron Hicks could make a huge leap offensively, his defense would be a welcome addition in the outfield. It would be nice to have a defensive upgrade at shortstop but the Twins have struggled for years to fill that position.

 

Even if the Twins make some small improvements to allow fewer runs, that'd be great. Otherwise, they are going to have to hope they can out-slug their opponents to get back on the right track.

 

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[tobi0040]

So Mauer is 3rd in the AL at 1B.  Escobar is 3rd in the AL at SS.  Plouffe is 4th in the AL at 3B.  It does not say where Dozier ranks, but notes he is not top two.  Lets say he is average.  If you throw the catcher spot out, when the ball is put in play, it would seem like a very good infield defense.  Wouldn't that at least partly offset the outfield?  Maybe our overall team defense is not absolute worst in the league?

[Steven Buhr]

Yes, the Twins' outfield is THAT bad.

 

I've never understood how this organization could, at the same time, recognize that their home field now is conducive to line drive gap hitters who take advantage of the outfield space YET do virtually nothing to emphasize the need for defensive outfielders with exceptional range to cut down the gappers from opposing hitters.

 

From the day Target Field opened its gates, this team has never had a roster constructed to fit the ballpark.

[Brock Beauchamp]

So Mauer is 3rd in the AL at 1B.  Escobar is 3rd in the AL at SS.  Plouffe is 4th in the AL at 3B.  It does not say where Dozier ranks, but notes he is not top two.  Lets say he is average.  If you throw the catcher spot out, when the ball is put in play, it would seem like a very good infield defense.  Wouldn't that at least partly offset the outfield?  Maybe our overall team defense is not absolute worst in the league?

Out of the Twins' starting pitchers and potential starting pitchers for April of 2015, Gibson is the only guy who is a dedicated ground ball pitcher.

 

Overall the Twins' defense may not be the worst in the league but if you factor in their pitching staff, they're one of the worst defenses where it counts. The impact of infield defense is minimized if the ball is constantly going over the infielders' heads.

[h2oface]

So Mauer is 3rd in the AL at 1B.  Escobar is 3rd in the AL at SS.  Plouffe is 4th in the AL at 3B.  It does not say where Dozier ranks, but notes he is not top two.  Lets say he is average.  If you throw the catcher spot out, when the ball is put in play, it would seem like a very good infield defense.  Wouldn't that at least partly offset the outfield?  Maybe our overall team defense is not absolute worst in the league?

It boggles my mind to read that defensive metrics rate the top three first basemen defensively to be Pujols, Cabrerra, and Mauer.  Twins fans seem to love Dozier's defense and have disdain for Plouffe's.  These ratings show that however the results are arrived at, the formula for these metrics leave a lot to be desired to come up with these results.

[Dantes929]

"If you throw the catcher spot out, when the ball is put in play, it would seem like a very good infield defense. Wouldn't that at least partly offset the outfield? Maybe our overall team defense is not absolute worst in the league?"

I believe our team defense is ranked very low so think what it would be without the good infield D. I went to watch the Twins in two games against Tampa several years ago. I think it was 2010. We lost both games and it was more clear live than on TV that the Rays outfield was getting to balls I thought they had no right getting to and the Twins were not getting to balls they should have been expected to get to. There was no doubt in my mind that if the two teams just switched outfield defense with each other the Twins would have won both games instead of losing both. Probably just a coincidence but I have to believe there are a lot of games decided by the difference between good outfield defense and bad outfield defense. I have no stats but it seems pretty often that when the Twins give up large innings you could probably go back and point to a play in the outfield that could have been made that would have changed everything. It may seem self evident but it is not just the run that scores with a double that a faster or better guy could have caught. It is also the extra base runner and the extra out that snowballs into more. I cannot wait for an outfield that has Buxton and Hicks or better yet, Buxton, Hicks and Rosario. I am sure the pitchers are anxious for that as well.

[Willihammer]

The 00s Twins were able to achieve some success with Kubel and Cuddy plodding around in the corners. That was considered a hitters park. TF, in case anyone forgot, has the exact same dimensions. The left field power alley, for example, is still shorter than the ones in Cincinnati or Arlington. The right field alley is still shorter than the ones at the Cell in Chicago or Miller Park.

 

And, most of us would agree, I think, that the OF defense improved after Schafer replaced Willingham, and again when Hicks was called up on Sept 2 and started spelling Parmelee/Arcia. However the BABIP and ERA has gone pretty much unchanged since that time.

 

At some point we need to accept that the roster just isn't that athletic. But they can hit. Get the best hitters into the lineup, I say, and shave off the runs by positioning them better.

[tobi0040]

It boggles my mind to read that defensive metrics rate the top three first basemen defensively to be Pujols, Cabrerra, and Mauer.  Twins fans seem to love Dozier's defense and have disdain for Plouffe's.  These ratings show that however the results are arrived at, the formula for these metrics leave a lot to be desired to come up with these results.

 

Yeah, defesive are in the first inning of providing value, IMO.  Espeially player specific values. 

 

Here is just one example.   Carlos Gomez defensive WAR by year, according to baseball reference:

 

2011 - 1.8

2012 - .6

2013 -4.6

2014 - .5

 

How could it possibly vary so much?

[Steven Buhr]

The 00s Twins were able to achieve some success with Kubel and Cuddy plodding around in the corners. That was considered a hitters park. TF, in case anyone forgot, has the exact same dimensions.

 

I've seen others at various times say the same thing about the dimensions being exactly as they were at the Dome.

 

First, it's not true. Actually, in LF, LCF and dead CF, the Dome fence dimensions were actually LONGER than TF by a few feet. RCF and RF were almost exactly the same. However the 23' "baggy" did not extend as far over toward CF as the 23' out of town scoreboard does at TF. The lower part of the fence at TF is also one foot higher than the fences at the Dome.

 

However, we're not really talking apples and apples here. There's a second, more important diference that I think most fans who have attended games at both venues noticed right away.

 

Games at Target Field are OUTDOORS.

 

TF has what's essentially a wind tunnel during many summer days/nights, with the open RF concourse. If you hit a ball the exact same way two different days at the Dome, you got the same result. That's not true at TF.

 

Now, I'm fine with that. I don't care if more balls stay in play at TF. I'd just like to see the Twins employ some outfielders who don't have to pull up on every ball hit more than 20 feet away from where they're positioned and don't have to chase every gapper all the way to the wall before picking the ball up.

 

This gives me a chance to post an article that made such an impression with me that I bookmarked it two years ago. http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/139405888.html

 

My favorite line is this one from Dave St. Peter:

 

"What we did agree to do is to give this another year. And, understand, that even if it plays more toward a pitchers' park, we can use that to our advantage with a pitching staff that largely pitches to contact."

 

How's that working out for you, Dave?

 

(end of rant)

Edited September 19, 2014 by Steven BUHR

[Linus]

First off, this just shows that defensive metrics are really crude still.

 

Their infield defense is acceptable and Arcia is going to be in right at least for the next couple of years so you really can only get better two ways: returning starters improve and the Twins make defense a priority in CF and LF.

 

How much the improvement is offset if the new outfielders can't hit is the key factor.

 

It would be interesting to know how this has changed since they dealt the Hammer.

[Willihammer]

OK fair enough. Target Field's outfield is actually smaller than the Dome's.

 

The point about the big scoreboard in RCF and the taller fences made me think: Are the Twins being unfairly penalized by UZR and the defensive metrics for all the balls the opposition hits off the scoreboard & fence?

Edited September 19, 2014 by Willihammer

[James Richter]

Here's a little fun with SSS: The Twins' RA/G in September (innings 1-9) with...

 

At least 2 of Schafer/Santana/Hicks starting in the OF: 39 RA/9 G = 4.33

One or fewer of those 3 starting in the OF: 49 RA/7 G = 7.00

 

This makes no attempt to factor in runs that came via HRs (and there were plenty, weren't there?). And of course, we're only talking about a handful of games. Still, let's watch these trends over the final 10 games...

[Badsmerf]

Improved play from CF and LF will be the key to the offseason. If the Twins don't sign Lester or Scherzer they need to find a way to improve the outfield. I hope they aren't relying on Hicks to finally break through, or Shaffer to break out. They need upgrades. Buxton is on the way for CF, so essentially they are good there. That leaves LF like so many have talked about.  

[Otwins]

If Escobar ranks 3rd on the defensive rating not sure why we have to upgrade there. He has hit OK for a shortstop. Outfield defense I agree has to be better before we can expect any real improvement. Problem that I see is that Arcia fields and hits like a DH but that spot is taken. 

[Dantes929]

Of course if we think Escobar is the answer at short then the answer in the outfield is Buxton and Santana.

[DocBauer]

It's a marriage of pitching and defense. And we can't lose that perspective.

 

Throw an all-star-ish SP staff with statues in the field and I don't like my chances much. They can't strike everyone out. And no matter how well they pitch, there will still be balls out in to play. Likewise, give me an all-star-ish defensive team with a rotation of Correia's and Pelfrey's, and there is only so much they can do to back up HR's and line drive after line drive.

 

I am so tired of the debate and slamming of the "pitch to contact" principles that the Twins have employed and frustrated fans have slammed. Everyone employs this philosophy to some degree. "Pitch to contact" means throw strikes, keep the ball around the zone and don't walk anyone. If a pitcher throws in and around the zone, pitching to contact, it means the batter can't sit there waiting for a walk or a perfect pitch for fear of called strikes. It leads to strikes, foul balls, pop ups, grounders and fly balls you can catch. Now, pitchers not only have to be around the zone, but they also can't groove pitches. Do you think the Dodgers instruct Kershaw to NOT through in and around the zone? To NOT pitch to contact?

 

So preventing runs is a combination of a pitcher throwing to contact, and in some cases being a SO pitcher, and trusting the defense to make plays on the balls popped up and put in to play. So again, it's a combination of pitching and defense.

 

Using rankings as well as they eye test, the Twins defense is pretty solid. Dozier makes a ton of great plays. But the only 2 years at 2B Dozier still has some room for improvement, and probably will. Escobar fits with defensive metrics, but with progress, Santana could be even better with his range, arm and better overall athleticism. Still, we shouldn't discount what Escobar has done.

 

Clearly, the biggest issue is the OF. I don't know if Arcia will ever learn to be great defensively. Maybe. He's young enough, has a great arm, and is a pretty decent athlete. He has shown improvement, is still young, and you'd like to think he will be at least OK out there with a big arm. The problem is clearly CF and LF. And the problem is not necessarily all the Twins doing. Were he actually healthy this year, Buxton might be already penciled in to CF for 2015. But that's not reality. So for at least part of 2015, what do you do? Do you stick with Santana for the short term, further delaying a possible future at SS with the idea of a possible shift to LF at some point? Do you trust Hick and or Shafer in CF for now? Do you spend FA money on a CF who might not have a job a half or whole season from now? Tough questions.

 

The easy one is LF where Willingham will no long be patrolling. I dare say just about everyone with any sort of vested interest has a bro-mance going on with Shafer in LF. Past performance vs SSS is condemning, and yet, look at what he's done? Oh, if only we had a crystal ball that worked! Forgoing that unrealistic option, I think one of the smartest things the Twins could do is make that big commitment to a FA LF who can play defense as well as quality OF. It may not be ideal, but a quality LF, a still improving Arcia in RF, and a CF "patchwork" with Hicks and Shafer with Santana in the wings has to be a huge improvement over Willingham, Kubel, Colabello, Parmalee, and whoever OF that we dealt with for much of this season, doesn't it?

[Halsey Hall]

The best way the Twins can prevent runs is to quit throwing pitchers out there with sore arms.  Nolasco is a good example.  Perkins throws bp with a sore arm.  Milone, sore arm.  Fein most likely has a sore arm.  Keep the sore arms off the mound. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Twins made a huge gamble on Hicks and lost. In hindsight I'm not sure that particular gamble cost too much in W-L though, and the Span/Revere trades may have netted a good pitching prospect or two. I assume Buxton is doing ok now that the collision is in the rear view mirror and can make a visit next September despite his unlucky 2014. Optimism!

 

Great point in OP that Dozier actually could stand to clean up his fielding a little bit. And Mauer still finding himself out of position from time to time. Otherwise happy with the infield D.