Article: Where Does Pelfrey Fit In?

[Nick Nelson]

His name invariably elicits a visceral response from Twins fans. When talking about how the 2015 pitching staff will shake out, nobody seems to like hearing him brought up.

 

Well, like it or not (and in most cases the answer is "not"), Mike Pelfrey was signed to a two-year deal during the offseason and is owed $5.5 million next year, so he'll get his chance.It's easy to see why Pelfrey isn't popular among the Twins faithful. He was a mediocre pitcher in the National League before being signed. He hasn't pitched well here. He works slowly on the mound and his starts tend to drag on.

 

More than that, the Twins' dealings with him have been emblematic of what frustrates a lot of folks about the way this team operates -- too much of a cater-to-the-player, bargain-seeking approach.

 

When they initially signed him, they got him at a bargain price because he was coming off elbow surgery and few other teams wanted to risk relying on a player who was in recovery mode. His $4 million deal was one of the cheapest guaranteed contracts for a starting pitcher during that offseason, at a time where the Twins desperately needed quality arms.

 

And this past winter, when they re-signed him, it was difficult to view his contract as anything other than a favor to a guy they liked. Who else was going to give Pelfrey multiple years coming off 13 losses and a 5.19 ERA, when he was never that great to begin with?

 

I can certainly agree with those critiques, but at the same time, I think the negativity I see directed toward Pelf is over-the-top. His struggles early on in the 2013 season were completely predictable following his insanely rapid return from Tommy John, but in the final three months of the season he was solid: 4.39 ERA, 2-to-1 K/BB, just six homers allowed in 15 starts.

 

I saw a lot of people using Pelfrey's poor start this year as justification for their complaints about his contract, and it always struck me as disingenuous. He was never healthy. If he was healthy and pitched badly, you could say the Twins screwed up, but I still believe that the guy we saw in the second half last season could be a decent value at $5.5 million as a fifth starter.

 

Whether the Twins should have really been aiming for a fifth starter is another matter, of course, but that's all in the past so there's no use sulking about it now.

 

The question, at this point, is what kind of value he can provide next year.

 

If things proceed as planned, it's tough to see how he fits into the starting rotation. You have to assume that Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolasco and Kyle Gibson will all enter camp as locks. Trevor May should get a spot as long as he's not a mess during spring training. Alex Meyer should be in position to win a spot as well. He'll be 25 with a full year of Triple-A under his belt; it's time to let him roll.

 

Factor in Tommy Milone, who should at least be in the mix, and there doesn't appear to be much room for Mr. Pelfrey. I don't think it's fair to penalize him for getting hurt, but he just hasn't done anything to earn a look over the younger guys.

 

The best route -- and one the Twins have to be considering -- might be moving the 6'7" righty into a relief role. It actually makes a ton of sense. Too much sense.

 

He's basically a one-trick pony, but that fastball he throws 80 percent of the time could be more of weapon with a few extra ticks of velocity. And with the way things have played out late in this season, it looks like the Twins may need some new blood in the bullpen next year.

 

When not injured, Pelfrey has proven to have a durable and resilient arm (he basically never missed a start from 2008 through 2011), so he could turn into a guy they can use for multiple innings, or several days in a row. That has value.

 

If he blossoms in that role, Pelfrey could easily be worth the $5.5 million they pay him next year. And he might uncover a new path for success in the second half of his career.

 

Click here to view the article

[Linus]

It really doesn't matter. I actually think it was an OK signing from the standpoint that the contract is small enough that they can just eat it in the worst case scenario. Best case scenario is that he either contributes from the bullpen or fills in when a starter is hurt or ineffective. I'd much rather have him filling that role than Johan Pino.

[Willihammer]

What is the current health status of Pelfrey? Guy has been off the radar since about May, or maybe I'm just not paying attention. Is anyone in the know?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

"I can certainly agree with those critiques, but at the same time, I think the negativity I see directed toward Pelf is over-the-top. His struggles early on in the 2013 season were completely predictable following his insanely rapid return from Tommy John, but in the final three months of the season he was solid: 4.39 ERA, 2-to-1 K/BB, just six homers allowed in 15 starts."

 

I'm gonna go ahead and disagree with you here... Mean ERA in 2013 was 3.75, and 2.65 to 1 k/bb, that's significantly worse than average, which isn't solid

 

I don't blame Pelf for taking the money, or sucking, but I don't like that he's a Twin either

[Rosterman]

If I were the Twins, would pull a Nick Blackburn and option him off the 40-man. If someone wants to claim him, let him walk. Maybe let him walk, but hope he stays on and starts at Rochester (which is where he will start 2015 in all likelihood). The Twins can afford to lose the money. They will be badly under payroll. They can oevrpay to keep Duensing and Swarzak, amongst others.

[Nick Nelson]

What is the current health status of Pelfrey? Guy has been off the radar since about May, or maybe I'm just not paying attention. Is anyone in the know?

 

Parker and I participated in a wiffleball tournament at Target Field on Sunday morning, while the Twins were playing out of town, and Pelfrey was out on the field playing long toss while the wiffle games were going on in the outfield. So he's definitely throwing and working out at the stadium. His surgery took place in June and had like a four-month return timetable, so he'd probably be getting pretty close if the season weren't ending.

 

If I were the Twins, would pull a Nick Blackburn and option him off the 40-man. If someone wants to claim him, let him walk. Maybe let him walk, but hope he stays on and starts at Rochester (which is where he will start 2015 in all likelihood). The Twins can afford to lose the money. They will be badly under payroll. They can oevrpay to keep Duensing and Swarzak, amongst others.

You're not intrigued at all by the thought of Pelfrey in the bullpen? Not enough to even give it a shot? Seems silly to sign him to a two-year deal and then cut him because he got hurt the first year. He should be all systems go next spring.

[h2oface]

It was thought that Pelfrey would be all systems go for 2014.  This is a repeat of the mistake made with Matt Capps.  Yup.  Best to try to trade him in the off season and get going with the future.  Put Pelfrey on the market and shop him incessantly.  If he is as good as supporters hope, it should be an easy deal to make.  He will be traded next year at some point, anyway.  It is just a matter of how insignificant the return will be.

[The Wise One]

Before TJ I believe Pefrey had an average velocity of 93 on his fastball and he could hit 98. Lousy K rate in the 5 something range. Now if he gains about the 2 mph a certain left hander did when he moved to the bullpen maybe his K rate will double like the lefthander's did. If it worked that way for Pelfrey he could be cheap a 5 mil for the value he would bring as a  quality 8th ining guy

[stringer bell]

Pre-TJ, Pelfrey was an okay back-of-the-rotation starter. That could be the case again after he is fully healed from his most recent shoulder issue. Given the uncertainties of the projected rotation, it makes a lot of sense to keep him. If 5 guys are better, put him in the bullpen and maybe he finds a nice role there.

[SarasotaBill]

2015 is a transition year unless they sign Lester or other ace.

 

If no ace signings, start Pelfrey for first three months and try to trade him before the deadline.

 

If he is awlful in ST, then stick him in the bullpen and see if he can find sucess there and if so then try to trade him before the deadline.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Seems silly to sign him to a two-year deal

 

It sure was!

 

Was there legitimate reason to think he would have signed anywhere else for a two year deal? Or that he wouldn't be perfectly happy with a one year deal from the Twins?

 

I know that your quote is being taken out of context, but a little bit of coffee came shooting out of my nose when I read that sentence.

[hybridbear]

The bullpen sounds like a great idea! Glen Perkins has had much more success since moving to the bullpen. Perhaps Pelfrey could find similar success as a reliever.

[Brock Beauchamp]

You're not intrigued at all by the thought of Pelfrey in the bullpen?

I don't understand how anyone wouldn't be intrigued to see Pelfrey throw out of the pen. He's not dissimilar to LaTroy Hawkins. Big, flat fastball that he throws non-stop.

 

He's pretty much a no-brainer for the pen, in my opinion.

[Boom Boom]

It was thought that Pelfrey would be all systems go for 2014.  This is a repeat of the mistake made with Matt Capps.  Yup.  Best to try to trade him in the off season and get going with the future.  Put Pelfrey on the market and shop him incessantly.  If he is as good as supporters hope, it should be an easy deal to make.  He will be traded next year at some point, anyway.  It is just a matter of how insignificant the return will be.

 

I think the best the Twins could hope for in a Pelfrey trade is cash considerations.  He's not worth his contract right now and no other team is going to give up a meaningful player for him.

 

Ultimately, if the Twins can get somebody else to pay all or part of Pelf's 2015 salary, that would be the best case trade scenario.

[Boom Boom]

FTR, I suspect that the Twins will use Pelfrey out of the rotation to start the season and let him play himself out of it.  It's not what I'd do, but it's what I've come to expect - loyalty to veterans, even to a fault.

 

Since Meyer won't debut in 2014, I don't think he'll make the team out of Spring Training, and I'd put May's chances at about 50/50, unless he absolutely dominates in Ft. Myers.

[tobi0040]

Here are my two cents, I don't think many people used his injury has an excuse to pick on his contract. I and many others hated the Pelfrey signing initially.  I thought it was an extremely low upside move and frankly a try out and rehab assignment for a Boras guy.

 

Pre-injury, Pelfrey had been in the league for seven years.  He had a career 4.50 ERA in the NL.  His ERA was under 4.00 in two years, driven primarily by a high LOB %. In those years, 2008 and 2010 his xFIP was 4.45 and 4.31.  

 

Then, it was mind boggling IMO that we gave him a two year deal after his first one year, whether he came back early or not. 

 

Regarding a move to the pen, I am fine with that.  Maybe it could work.  The fear is that they give him a role because of his contract and keep a more intriguing arm in AAA.  

Edited September 19, 2014 by tobi0040

[Mike Sixel]

If he's in the rotation to start the season, they are neither rebuilding nor going all in to win, so it will just continue the head scratching lack of commitment to an actual strategy by this team.......

 

Bullpen would be ok with me, but overall, I'd like the bullpen to be filled with young players with options, so they can only carry 12 and move them up and down to AAA.....clogging your pen with old guys that are paid a lot of money (when you are a cheap team) makes no strategic sense. That said, he's signed, so I'd move him to the pen and see if lightning strikes. If you NEED him as a 7th starter, he's there. 

 

And, the injury and bad play was predictable, since some of us did predict it......

[nicksaviking]

I'm just fine with him going to the pen, assuming he earns a spot in spring training.  There are plenty of non-30-year-olds who I'd rather see all things being equal. 

 

If we look at him as a movable asset, and not a piece to compete, it's a little more palatable.  As a starter, we know what he is at his best, which is next to no trade value.  Others are right though, there is a chance he will thrive in the bullpen.  If he can figure things out by keeping runners off base and get a K/9 above 8.0 other teams will want him.  It's unlikely, but not unheard of.

Edited September 19, 2014 by nicksaviking

[tobi0040]

It sure was!

 

Was there legitimate reason to think he would have signed anywhere else for a two year deal? Or that he wouldn't be perfectly happy with a one year deal from the Twins?

 

I know that your quote is being taken out of context, but a little bit of coffee came shooting out of my nose when I read that sentence.

 

I completely agree. If we really, really wanted him he could have been had on a one year deal.  I really don't see anyone giving a guy a two year deal coming off a 5.40 ERA or whatever it was. 

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Joking aside about the contract, Pelfrey is a Minnesota Twin currently, and is under contract for the 2015 season.

 

Of the starting Pitchers currently in the mix for the 2015 rotation, Pelfrey is probably 5th, 6th, or 7th depending on how you rate Alex Meyer and Tommy Milone.

 

I definitely think that Pelfrey is an asset - I'd rather the Twins be able to turn to a healthy version of Mike Pelfrey once every five days than some of the marginal AAAA guys.

 

But healthy is the key point - so that's going to have to be his goal for the bulk of the off-season and Spring Training. Showing the team that he's past the injuries of this year.

 

Maybe he can thrive in the bullpen - I wonder how open he will be to that role.  

[Siehbiscuit]

Strongly agree with the Pelfrey move to the pen idea. I wouldn't care if Meyer started next year and pitched out of the pen for all of April and maybe into May before he and Pelfrey swapped roles. This would get Meyer some lower leverage experience and keep his innings limit under control early. Pelfrey has always had velocity, why not use it out of the pen vs just DFA'ing him?

 

Most great RP's were once failed starters. He has the tools.

[Nick Nelson]

And, the injury and bad play was predictable, since some of us did predict it......

Really? You predicted he was going to get injured and miss the whole year after finishing last season healthy, huh? I know I've asked you before, but could you point me to that post? Don't recall seeing it.

[jharaldson]

Parker and I participated in a wiffleball tournament at Target Field on Sunday morning, while the Twins were playing out of town, and Pelfrey was out on the field playing long toss while the wiffle games were going on in the outfield. So he's definitely throwing and working out at the stadium. 

 

DId he pitch in the wiffleball game?  How many pitches does he have?  This page details over 70 different and awesomely named pitches.

 

http://www.wikihow.com/Throw-Wiffle-Ball-Pitches

 

http://pad1.whstatic.com/images/thumb/0/08/140447-29.jpg/670px-140447-29.jpg

 

http://pad2.whstatic.com/images/thumb/d/d8/140447-27.jpg/670px-140447-27.jpg

 

Realistically I wish the Twins would just spend the real money they have and go out and get a wiffleball Cy Young award winner like Joel Deroche.  At some point it doesn't make sense waiting for prospects like Parker and Nick to work out, you have to go get that proven quantity.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FXq5KvtNf4s

[Halsey Hall]

I thought Pelfrey would be one of our better pitchers this year. To bad for the injury. But I'd take him over Milone, and give Pelf a good shot at being in the rotation next season. Spring training should tell the tale. Take the best five and go from there. Wins in April count just as much as wins in Sept.

[Oldgoat_MN]

We have Hughes, Nolasco, May and Gibson in the starting rotation next year.

 

Pelfrey, Milone, Meyer and the one or two #5 pitchers Terry Ryan signs in the off-season will be competing for the #5 spot.

 

My guess is.... 

 

I got nothin'.

[Kwak]

There's always someone looking for a cheap SP--find them.  Cut a deal even if it involves some Twins money.  Many posts have been made extolling Ryan's ability to build a bullpen--so let him!  It is imperative to not dig the 2015 Twins in a hole (like just about every year) with the "April Experiments" that typify Gardenhire-teams.  The rotation should be made of "starting pitchers" (which may include rookies), the bullpen with experienced relief pitchers, the OF with outfielders, the IF with infielders in their normal position, and real catchers.  

[tobi0040]

There's always someone looking for a cheap SP--find them.  Cut a deal even if it involves some Twins money.  Many posts have been made extolling Ryan's ability to build a bullpen--so let him!  It is imperative to not dig the 2015 Twins in a hole (like just about every year) with the "April Experiments" that typify Gardenhire-teams.  The rotation should be made of "starting pitchers" (which may include rookies), the bullpen with experienced relief pitchers, the OF with outfielders, the IF with infielders in their normal position, and real catchers.  

 

Yes, Yes, and Yes.  We don't need to go 10-20 in April.

[clutterheart]

2015

Hughes

Nolosco

Gibson

May

Meyer

 

Sorry Pelfrey, no room

[Brandon]

Rule number 1 to pitching is you can never have too much.  Lets wait and see what the Twins do in the offseason and how things shake out in spring training.  I think the bullpen is definitely an option for him and the twins do too.  His 3.5 million in incentives are for starting not relieving but the Twins got him for less guaranteed in case they moved him to the pen.  I see him currently as a 7th or 8th or 9th starter depending on how you rank Pino and Swarzak.  Probably 7th. 

 

I think if the Twins sign someone in the offseason he probably starts in the pen. 

[tobi0040]

"His 3.5 million in incentives are for starting not relieving but the Twins got him for less guaranteed in case they moved him to the pen." 

 

The last thing the Twins should be worried about is Pelfrey getting cheated on that 2 year, $12M deal we gave him.