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Article: The Defensive Dilemma


Nick Nelson

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Let's go down the list of players the Twins have put on the field most often:

 

Suzuki - For all the Twins have raved about his catching, he doesn't throw well at all.  I'm frankly surprised that teams don't run on him more often.  I'll have to take their word for it on the game-calling.

 

Mauer - He's getting better I think, but for much of the year he looked uncomfortable over at first base.  I think he'll be a more than adequate defensive first baseman, but the trade-off is that Vargas will have to DH, and Sano better stick at third or be moved to the outfield.

 

Dozier - He makes some nice plays, but the numbers don't like him defensively as much as the broadcasters do. 

 

Plouffe - Probably the biggest bright spot, he's turned into an above-average third baseman after wandering in the wilderness for so long.  When Sano is ready, will the Twins decide to sacrifice Plouffe's defense to put what might be a square peg in a round hole?

 

Escobar - He can play shortstop and not embarrass himself.  Probably best suited for a utility role, though. 

 

Willingham - Since being traded to the Royals, he's been almost exclusively used as a DH, which is probably what he should have been doing while he was a Twin.  Left field is a big question mark going forward. 

 

Santana - Well... he's fast, I guess.

 

Arcia - Sometimes when I see Arcia in the outfield, I think I'm looking at an old replay of Delmon Young reflected through a mirror.

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But they don't need a better 3B or 2B right now, on defense, do they? And most believe Mauer will be better on D next year. We aren't talking about a vacuum here.

 

Where do you propose they get these much better pitchers next year?

 

I agree they won't be able to, I'm not arguing that they can or should get these pitchers this offseason, I'm just arguing that they won't be relevant until they do.  Hopefully enough of the young arms come up, can average 8.0 K/9 and keep runners off the bases.  But if they can't they will need to get those players through free agency or trade and as unlikely as this front office is to target those types of arms, it's still a more reasonable way to build a winning team than it is to get contact heavy pitchers with steller defenders who also happen to be able to hit.

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Coupla thoughts.

 

On a KTWIN pregame show last week, Chris Attebery reported that Gardy said he spoke to Gary Cederstrom after he umpired the previous night's game in which Pinto caught. Attebery said Gardy said Cederstrom said that "it was like night and day" - that is, Pinto's movement behind the plate and Cederstrom's ability to see by him and call balls and strikes. For whatever that's worth.

 

Arcia might be able to improve his first step with more reps but he's just not very athletic. He will need to improve his hitting to the point where he's a well above average bat to justify keeping him out there.

 

Hicks has looked at times, lost in CF. Santana has made a few gaffs too but hasn't looked too out of place. IMO its not clear one is better than the other, and UZR says they're both equally lousy CFers in small samples. So hoping for one or the other to improve might be a more realistic strategy for Santana, IMO, because Hicks has played OF for years and Santana hasn't. Add in the fact that Santana has been an absolute spark plug and he deserves to hold the CF job IMO.

 

Schafer is a fun player to watch. He seems to catch everything in LF and I'm pretty confident that given a large enough sample, the statistics would back that up. He's LHB might be a good platoon or semi-platoon with Hicks or another RH OFer (Pinto?)

 

Pinto... the Twins need to get him at-bats everyday. Has Plouffe's glove improved enough to move back to SS? Can Pinto take 3rd? Can Mauer move to 3rd? Is Sano go ing to take 3rd? I don't know for sure. But the Twins have to get creative and find a way to get some value out of this logjam of talent, and not let any of these guys rot on the bench.

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Here are the things the Twins could do to improve their  defense as I see it.  I would also like to note that our rankings today do reflect Josh Willingham out there 68 games this year.

 

-Players could improve defensively.  It is interesting to note that Plouffe is now average defensively becuase he had the chance to get better.  Santana and Pinto have not had that chance (Pinto has not solely been a catcher even in AAA).

 

-One of Arcia, Vargas, or Sano can be your DH

 

-A more athletic player such as Joe Mauer could move to a corner OF spot, having a guy like Arcia less exposed at 1B.  He has to be a better corner OF than Arcia. 

 

-Players coming up are better.  Buxton is an obvious example, but if Hicks or Rosario could be an adequate bat that would certainly be a huge upgrade in a corner

 

-If we have to, someone who is not improving could be traded or cut

 

-Our pitching could get better.  In addition to Meyer coming up, I would think a correlation does exist between bad pitching and bad defense. It seems reasonable to expect that the worse the pitcher, the harder the ball will be hit, the more balls that will drop.

 

I think the solution will lie in most of these bullet points.

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On a KTWIN pregame show last week, Chris Attebery reported that Gardy said he spoke to Gary Cederstrom after he umpired the previous night's game in which Pinto caught. Attebery said Gardy said Cederstrom said that "it was like night and day" - that is, Pinto's movement behind the plate and Cederstrom's ability to see by him and call balls and strikes. For whatever that's worth.

 

 

 

Night and day compared to what - to the last time Cederstrom was home plate umpire and Pinto caught? Or compared to Suzuki? And was it a positive or a negative night and day?

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-A more athletic player such as Joe Mauer could move to a corner OF spot, having a guy like Arcia less exposed at 1B.  He has to be a better corner OF than Arcia. 

 

 

This notion continues to puzzle me.  I don't disagree that on paper Mauer looks athletic enough to be an adequate outfielder.  But reality says that could very well not be the case.  Mauer is 31 with some injury history and 6'5" tall.  He's played one emergency game in the outfield in his career?  I would expect a steady dose of Mauer in the outfield to be someone who can't read the ball well off the bat, doesn't take good routes to the ball, and then struggles to pick the ball up off the ground well when he's chasing it around because he's so big and likely losing his athleticism rapidly due to age and injury history.  And I really don't want to see him crashing into any walls risking another concussion. 

 

He's not on my list of options to improve the outfield defense.  It's not a long-term solution and if you're making that move it has to be done right away so he spends the entire offseason preparing for it.  I'd be incredibly surprised if they made that move after indicating he was our 1B moving forward.  I'm sure Mauer could play the outfield, I just doubt he'd actually make the defense any better.  I think I've even advocated for him in the OF in the past, but at this point I don't find it a good idea.

Edited by ericchri
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This notion continues to puzzle me.  I don't disagree that on paper Mauer looks athletic enough to be an adequate outfielder.  But reality says that could very well not be the case.  Mauer is 31 with some injury history and 6'5" tall.  He's played one emergency game in the outfield in his career?  I would expect a steady dose of Mauer in the outfield to be someone who can't read the ball well off the bat, doesn't take good routes to the ball, and then struggles to pick the ball up off the ground well when he's chasing it around because he's so big and likely losing his athleticism rapidly due to age and injury history.  And I really don't want to see him crashing into any walls risking another concussion. 

 

He's not on my list of options to improve the outfield defense.  It's not a long-term solution and if you're making that move it has to be done right away so he spends the entire offseason preparing for it.  I'd be incredibly surprised if they made that move after indicating he was our 1B moving forward.  I'm sure Mauer could play the outfield, I just doubt he'd actually make the defense any better.  I think I've even advocated for him in the OF in the past, but at this point I don't find it a good idea.

 

I can't argue that he is not older or taller than Arcia, although I am not sure that being 6-2 makes someone a better OF than someone that is 6-5.  But right now my money is on Mauer in a foot race.  We used to have a kid that was slow and when he would run after a ball, the coach would yell "unhook the plow".  That is what I want to yell when I see Arcia chugging out there.

 

This was a long time ago, but Joe was the national football player of the year and averaged close to 20 points a game in basketball as well.  An adjustment period would exist, no doubt.  But I think he would be a better OF than Arcia.  I really do.

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I did some rather crude back-of-the-envelope calculations to try to determine how effective the improvements would be if the Twins could improve to league average Defensive Efficiency (.705). It turns out it would prevent roughly 80 hits. Similarly, improving the strikeout rate to league average (20%) would prevent roughly 65 hits. Given the crude nature of my method, I'm going to assume that the difference between the two is essentially a wash.

 

If we all agree that the main culprit for the poor defense has been the outfielders, it is probably true that acquiring two above-average outfield defenders to improve defense is easier and cheaper (either in trades or via free agency) than acquiring two (or more) starting pitchers with above-average strikeout rates. I hope they attempt to improve in both areas of run prevention, but I also hope that they recognize that improving the defense (especially in the outfield) is probably lower hanging fruit right now.

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I did some rather crude back-of-the-envelope calculations to try to determine how effective the improvements would be if the Twins could improve to league average Defensive Efficiency (.705). It turns out it would prevent roughly 80 hits. Similarly, improving the strikeout rate to league average (20%) would prevent roughly 65 hits. Given the crude nature of my method, I'm going to assume that the difference between the two is essentially a wash.

 

If we all agree that the main culprit for the poor defense has been the outfielders, it is probably true that acquiring two above-average outfield defenders to improve defense is easier and cheaper (either in trades or via free agency) than acquiring two (or more) starting pitchers with above-average strikeout rates. I hope they attempt to improve in both areas of run prevention, but I also hope that they recognize that improving the defense (especially in the outfield) is probably lower hanging fruit right now.

 

Hicks would have to be miles better and hopefully that .280 average holds up!  Small sample size, I get it.

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I can't disagree what most of you are saying (minus the move Mauer to the OF talk), but is it oversimplifying to think that even with Gold Glovers at EVERY position our pitching staff would still give up a ton of hits? Our pitchers, even those that are the "groundball specialists" don't induce enough "weak" contact. When Gibson is on, like the June starts, the defense behind him all of a sudden looked good. It's not a coincedence. Bad defense is magnified by bad pitching. Poorly hit balls aren't the ones fans should worry about our OF screwing up. Its the plodding to the gaps and being able to actually make a play on something sharply hit that leads to disaster.

 

A guy like Deduno was passed over by EVERY team in the league numerous times, but the Twins threw him out there time after time. Walks have little to do with the defense (although, more confidence in your defene might prevent some nibbling). Kevin Correia had to be overpaid to come here, no one wanted him when he could go anywhere.

 

The bottomline is that our lineup isn't the problem. Or defense isn't THE problem, but could improve. The problem is our pitch to contact pitchers are pitching to HARD contact. Not the defense.

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I can't disagree what most of you are saying (minus the move Mauer to the OF talk), but is it oversimplifying to think that even with Gold Glovers at EVERY position our pitching staff would still give up a ton of hits? Our pitchers, even those that are the "groundball specialists" don't induce enough "weak" contact. When Gibson is on, like the June starts, the defense behind him all of a sudden looked good. It's not a coincedence. Bad defense is magnified by bad pitching. Poorly hit balls aren't the ones fans should worry about our OF screwing up. Its the plodding to the gaps and being able to actually make a play on something sharply hit that leads to disaster.

 

A guy like Deduno was passed over by EVERY team in the league numerous times, but the Twins threw him out there time after time. Walks have little to do with the defense (although, more confidence in your defene might prevent some nibbling). Kevin Correia had to be overpaid to come here, no one wanted him when he could go anywhere.

 

The bottomline is that our lineup isn't the problem. Or defense isn't THE problem, but could improve. The problem is our pitch to contact pitchers are pitching to HARD contact. Not the defense.

 

Given the comment about Mauer to the OF, I think this is aimed at me.  Just wanted to note that I completely agree our pitching plays a huge role in the defense.  I cited a correlation between the two and said that bad pitching results in hard hit balls.  Even cited our pitching getting better as one of the ways our defense gets better.

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We should expect younger players to improve all aspects of their game (except raw speed) as they gain experience. Arcia and Hicks have some work to do, and should be held accountable if they fail to show improvement in the field next year. But CF isn't Hicks' long-term position with this team anyway, and I can't conceive of how someone with his legs and arm won't turn out to be an above-average LF. Meanwhile, Schafer's career numbers in CF are only a touch below average - maybe he's the one to throw out there until Buxton comes along.

 

While Hicks and Schafer's total OPS for the year is a bit below average for AL #8-9 hitters, and their OBPs are above average. If they can sustain or improve upon their numbers over the final 16 games, they should get every chance to win starting jobs next spring. I don't have a problem with the 2015 Twins setting themselves up to have a piranha-type offense from #8-#2 guys: get on and run the bases, and wait for the doubles from the #3-#7 spots. Defensively, I would expect improvement in RF (incremental growth from Arcia), CF (growth from Hicks or use Schafer) and LF (either Hicks or Schafer will be way better than Willingham/Kubel).

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Coupla thoughts.On a KTWIN pregame show last week, Chris Attebery reported that Gardy said he spoke to Gary Cederstrom after he umpired the previous night's game in which Pinto caught. Attebery said Gardy said Cederstrom said that "it was like night and day" - that is, Pinto's movement behind the plate and Cederstrom's ability to see by him and call balls and strikes. For whatever that's worth.Arcia might be able to improve his first step with more reps but he's just not very athletic. He will need to improve his hitting to the point where he's a well above average bat to justify keeping him out there.Hicks has looked at times, lost in CF. Santana has made a few gaffs too but hasn't looked too out of place. IMO its not clear one is better than the other, and UZR says they're both equally lousy CFers in small samples. So hoping for one or the other to improve might be a more realistic strategy for Santana, IMO, because Hicks has played OF for years and Santana hasn't. Add in the fact that Santana has been an absolute spark plug and he deserves to hold the CF job IMO.Schafer is a fun player to watch. He seems to catch everything in LF and I'm pretty confident that given a large enough sample, the statistics would back that up. He's LHB might be a good platoon or semi-platoon with Hicks or another RH OFer (Pinto?)Pinto... the Twins need to get him at-bats everyday. Has Plouffe's glove improved enough to move back to SS? Can Pinto take 3rd? Can Mauer move to 3rd? Is Sano go ing to take 3rd? I don't know for sure. But the Twins have to get creative and find a way to get some value out of this logjam of talent, and not let any of these guys rot on the bench.

1) interesting on Pinto, but that's as far as it goes...

2) Santana still looks very out of place in CF, he's just fast enough to make catches, maybe with enough reps he could change that, but I doubt that day will ever come

3) I'm unsure of the logjam, let the prospects earn their place

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Nice conversation.  I agree with several things posted, but disagree with quite a few as well.  Yes, repetitions will make a player a better fielder.  Danny Santana had played less than 10 professional games in the outfield.  He has come a long way while learning on the job.  If he continued to work on center, he would be adequate as soon as next year IMHO.  Lots of talk about Aaron Hicks playing a corner.  I just don't see enough bat to play a corner.  Arcia was a brutal outfielder last year, he is better this year and I think he can be adequate next year.  He's got enough speed and a good arm.  He has focused better this year, but still isn't close to a finished product. 

 

Having four or maybe five guys play 99% of the outfield innings would help greatly.  I think the Twins are moving in the right direction there.  Misplays not only come on balls that should be outs, they happen on balls that are legitimate hits.  Turning singles into doubles and triples will be alleviated if the pitchers allow less hits in the first place.  Game situations caused by better pitching (a healthy lead) will take some more pressure off the defense. 

 

Defense and pitching are intertwined.  Great defense helps pitching and great pitching helps suspect defense (see Tigers, Detroit).  There is plenty of room for the Twins to improve both defensively and on the mound.  I think they might improve enough to be interesting next year. 

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A few thoughts to contribute:

 

I take defensive ratings with a grain of salt, and always have. The reason being, no matter what metric you use, IMHO, it can be skewed. Over the years, I've seen teams rank at or near the top of league standings in defense, but it was due to errors and fielding percentage, meaning players didn't make as many mistakes. Meanwhile, teams ranked lower "seemed" better defensively due to more athletic players with more range getting to more balls, even making more spectacular plays, but sometimes making more errors while attempting more difficult plays that others couldn't even attempt. I fell that sometimes, defense is more of an eye test, and not always measurable accurately.

 

That being said, I think it's clear the eye test didn't favor the Twins OF this year. I think Santana has done a tremendous job considering he was an Inf tossed in to CF with very little experience. He got better, and can still get better, but long term he seems to be a true SS, or at worst, a LF candidate who can move around. He has the athletic skill set for SS, and I hope he gets the teaching and experience there to, hopefully, improve himself. Good and great ML SS don't just happen overnight.

 

Putting a quality defensive OF in one of the corner OF spots would be huge as opposed to BOTH Willingham and Arcia out there, as we had the past couple of seasons. I don't know that signing a temp CF is the answer or not. It could definitely help! But even if Hicks smooths a couple things out, and can hit well enough to contribute, simply being a more natural and experienced CF would have to be an improvement, would it not? (At least until Buxton arrives)

 

I think Arcia has improved his defense. I think the skills are there to get even better with time and work. I think his biggest problem, as someone pointed out, is running toward CF. I'd rather see a deeper angle used and just get in front of the ball instead of going for the big catch.

 

Strikeouts are great! But they are not a solution. You could rank amongst lead leaders in SO's but still allow way too many hard line drives. Just better, more consistent pitching could help the OF defense as much as better pure defensive players. Three stiffs playing moderately deep could do a solid job with high, even deep, fly balls and "cans of corn" vs. rocket shots to the gaps.

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When we were in the Metrodome, there were debates as to which corner OF was the most important and hardest to play. RF had the Baggie, but offered shorter routes and less area to cover, while a strong arm in RF is generally coveted. But the consensus, as I remember it, was that LF, despite a reputation, generally speaking, of being a less key defensive position, had more area to cover in the dome. I know the dimensions of Target Field somewhat approximate the old dome, but it's still a different stadium, and outdoors as well. I wonder, with his strong arm but still developing skills, is it better to keep Arcia in RF or put him in LF now?

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I think putting another slow guy (Mauer, Pinto) in the outfield is going exactly the wrong way to improve the defense.  The infield is satisfactory at each position, without a real weak link, but not "rangy" unless Santana is the regular shortstop, and I'm not convinced that Danny can be a plus defender at short.

 

Adding a speedy, rangy left fielder and having a regular center fielder would improve things immeasurably.  I probably like Schafer more than I should--I love the speed on the bases and he's been pretty good in the OF--but using him more than half the time in the outfield might make the outfield defense more palatable. 

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I think putting another slow guy (Mauer, Pinto) in the outfield is going exactly the wrong way to improve the defense.  The infield is satisfactory at each position, without a real weak link, but not "rangy" unless Santana is the regular shortstop, and I'm not convinced that Danny can be a plus defender at short.

 

Adding a speedy, rangy left fielder and having a regular center fielder would improve things immeasurably.  I probably like Schafer more than I should--I love the speed on the bases and he's been pretty good in the OF--but using him more than half the time in the outfield might make the outfield defense more palatable.

 

I really like this.

 

And I really like Escobar at SS. And to beat a dead horse even further, I still like Santana at SS not only for his offense, but also for his range, arm, and overall athleticism. And I'm willing to live with a little less "perfection" defensively at the position for his range, potential and offense if he can handle the position daily. Is that a big IF?

 

I am also very intrigued by Schafer, also maybe more than I should. I like him a lot as a possible steal 4th OF, possible CF platoon maybe, but keep waiting for Lucy to pull the ball away, or the proverbial pin popping the balloon to disappoint me.

 

I STILL maintain a nice FA LF who can contribute offensively as well as defensively. I think it pays huge dividends both ways.

 

Santana at SS and Hicks at CF, until Buxton arrives, is my ideal. But I am not opposed to a CF signee at all!

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I also like Schafer in left and batting ninth and can't exactly explain why. :)

 

What Willihammer said makes sense -- I think the talk of Mauer playing in the outfield has less to do with Mauer playing in the outfield, than it has to do with breaking the potential logjam of 1B/DH types next year. Mauer, Vargas, Sano/Plouffe, Pinto maybe, Arcia according to some,...

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My two cents

 

Mauer started out shaky but in my opinion... He has been close to exceptional of late. I have no 1B worries at all.

 

Dozier... In my opinion has been as good a 2B as anyone at the position in baseball.

 

Plouffe has been much improved

 

Escobar is serviceable at SS... All in All though... I'd like to see improvement here.

 

Nunez... Has been great defensively... Especially at 3B... Not so much in the OF... Whatever the Yankee fans were screaming about has not arrived in Minnesota.

 

I'm proud of Santana... The Twins front office choked assessing CF and Santana had to bail them out. With more reps Santana could turn into a wonderful OF. His improvement has been noticeable.

 

Arcia has a great arm... I take that as a positive.

 

Schafer has improved the overall OF situation... Hammer was well below par.

 

Collectively... I think the Twins will be alright defensively. They just gotta sync up with the pitchers... They seem to go bad together. When the defense makes a miscue... The pitchers don't pick them up and vice versa. When the pitchers get into a hole and need that amazing play... They don't get it.

 

The Twins focus needs to be pitching... pitching and more pitching. This D could support improve pitching.

 

I almost forgot about Vargas. He has done a fine job defensively at DH.

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So much of this speculation could have been eliminated if Santanna had been moved to SS, and Shafer to center and Hicks to left to finish the year out. I know it's "fall ball" but we are player contenders who need to win. We are not going to see that many AAA arms, and diluted lineups. My reasoning? Buxton is going to play center sometime next year. (You can't base decisions now on possible injuries down the road). Meaning Hicks has to play left. (Or not at all) I do like Shafer as a 4th OF and PR. I would not waste FA money on an OF until the Buxton thing plays out. Arcia is not going anywhere, especially to first base. Neither is Dozier or Plouffe, until Sano arrives. And there would be nothing wrong with a Suzuki Pinto combo. Suzuki could be PH for by Pinto later in the game, depending on the situation. Also since his best part of the season was the first half and he seems to be wearing down, a lighter work load might be in order? (Hopefully the rationale for 3 catchers will be resolved this winter). None of the above means this will be next years lineup in March. But it let's us get headed in a direction. Playing the Nunez's of the world at short does not.

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I have to agree that Santana should be starting 80% of the games in September at short with Schafer or Hicks in CF.  I guess this is a product of putting the best team on the field because contending teams should face our best.  I would argue the team with these suggested changes is no worse than what has been put out there lately.

 

We need to acquire a LF via free agency and platoon Schafer and Hicks in CF.  If one of them earns the everyday job, great.  Plus, that makes one of them available as a late inning defensive replacement or pitch runner or both.  That team would be quite different than the one we started with in 2014. 

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We keep bringing up prospects who can't defend a position. I also continue to read minor league reports of players playing C, OF, 1B in the space of a week. Do other organizations shuffle their prospects from position to position? I'd like to think by the time you've promoted a prospect to AAA you'd figured out where he fits on D. An earlier poster pointed out that repetition is key to improvement. Constantly changing position with these guys cannot be helping their development.

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Positional flexibility is a good thing for borderline guys.  If Chris Herrmann weren't both an acceptable catcher and an adequate corner outfielder, I doubt he would have seen the major leagues and he might be out of baseball.  Brian Dinkelman got free health care for life because he could play both second base and the outfield corners.  The Twins this year used Pedro Florimon at second and third in Rochester because it certainly appears that he can't hit enough to be a regular, but he might be able to become a three-position utility infielder for someone.  Dan Rohlfing of the Red Wings is another guy who can catch and play the outfield corner (plus first base) and it wouldn't surprise me that he gets at least a cup of coffee in the majors because of his versatility. 

 

Premium guys like Sano and Buxton won't get moved around.  It is telling that the Twins sent Hicks down and used him on the outfield corners, suggesting that his future might be as a utility outfielder, rather than a center fielder.

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That's kind of my point. If a guy isn't good enough to hold a single position the ability to play marginally at three or four doesn't help. I get the benefit of having an option or two on the bench; you don't need 5 or 6 of them on the roster and you don't need half your AAA roster shuffling positions in hopes of making major league players out of AAAA filler. If the guy can't do a major league job it's time to dump him and bring the next guy up, not waste another season or two trying to turn chicken byproducts into chicken salad.

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It does help.  There are starters and there are bench players in AAA.  Bench players need to play more than one position to make an MLB team.  And just because a guy like Hermann has bench upside doesn't mean he needs to be dumped.  There are only X number of legitimately good AAA prospects in Rochester (or any AAA team).  The rest are made up of AAAA types (bench upside) or career MiLB'ers.

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That's kind of my point. If a guy isn't good enough to hold a single position the ability to play marginally at three or four doesn't help. I get the benefit of having an option or two on the bench; you don't need 5 or 6 of them on the roster and you don't need half your AAA roster shuffling positions in hopes of making major league players out of AAAA filler. If the guy can't do a major league job it's time to dump him and bring the next guy up, not waste another season or two trying to turn chicken byproducts into chicken salad.

+1

 

     You hit the nail on the head.  The Twins spend too much time (especially playing time) trying to weave silk purse's from sows' ears. 

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