Article: The Defensive Dilemma

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins rank fifth in the American League in runs scored per game, and second-to-last in runs allowed per game. It's pretty obvious where they primarily need to improve in order to return to respectability: run prevention.

 

A new pitching coach, along with some tweaking in personnel, might help, but there's a much deeper problem here. This is a horrendous defensive team, creating a dilemma with no easy solution.In Defensive Efficiency (a measure of how many balls in play are converted into outs), the Twins rank 29th out of 30 MLB clubs, with only the Rangers -- who lost their 92nd game on Thursday -- behind them.

 

There are some blatantly bad fielders on the Minnesota roster. For Oswaldo Arcia, the statistics agree with the eye-test: he's a complete liability in either outfield corner. Josmil Pinto was sent to the minors in June almost solely because of his deficiencies behind the plate, and even when in Triple-A he was hardly a regular at catcher. Danny Santana is considered somewhat rough at shortstop, but has had almost no opportunity to refine his game there this year.

 

Looking ahead to 2015, the Twins' question marks defensively are painfully obvious, and yet herein lies the problem: The same names mentioned above are also talented young hitters who will be critical to sustaining the team's aforementioned offensive improvement.

 

Think about Trevor Plouffe. He was a mess defensively during his first couple seasons in the majors, first at shortstop and then at third. But this year, at age 28, he has made noticeable improvements that have been acknowledged by his coaches and backed up by fielding metrics.

 

It's just one example of a player making meaningful strides with his glove over time, and it's not that rare. It is too soon to give up on 25-and-under guys like Pinto and Arcia being adequate fielders long-term.

 

However, the Twins have got to get better at preventing runs in a hurry. This is the fourth straight season in which they've allowed too much scoring to even have a chance at competing, and that has to stop.

 

But how do the Twins balance the desperate need to improve defensively with their coinciding reliance on these potent young bats? Kennys Vargas, at 23, is already essentially relegated to DH duty given his lack of value in the field, so hiding another hitter there isn't really an option unless he's traded.

 

Maybe that's the answer: Seek to trade a one or two of these plodding sluggers, replacing them with more able defenders. But it seems weird for a retooling team to be dealing away promising, internally developed young talents. I don't think I'd advocate that.

 

To be honest, I'm flummoxed. I hate the thought of another bottom-tier defensive unit next year, making the already difficult task of bringing this pitching staff up to snuff substantially more challenging. Yet, I have no desire to give up on MLB-caliber young hitters like Pinto, Arcia, Vargas and Santana.

 

What it might come down to is hoping that some of these guys rapidly develop in the field -- they're at an age and experience level where that can happen.

 

At the same time, the pitchers have got to miss more bats and reduce pressure on the defensive unit. There's no question that the Twins' fielding issues have been magnified to a tremendous degree by a staff that is constantly putting the ball in play; this is their fourth straight year ranking last in the league in strikeout rate.

 

That simply has to change, or the ridiculous runs-allowed totals will not.

 

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[nicksaviking]

The solution is clear and you touched on it at the end. A strikeout takes all chance and randomness off the table and leaves no question as to the outcome of the at bat, unlike a ball put in play.

 

The inexcusable disregard for strikeout pitchers at the MLB level and all the problems that become entangled in the archaic pitching philosophy they prefer is the biggest reason this team isn't winning.

[Nick Nelson]

I don't disagree with anything you said, but we've got to be realistic. The Twins have ranked last in the league in strikeouts four straight years -- they're not going to suddenly shoot into the top half.

 

Hopefully they'll take some steps to make improvements in that category, but defense is still going to come into play heavily. There's no doubt about it.

[Ben B]

You know what I find the most strange? That the Twins are putting up these pitiful strikeout rates year in and year out, while the rest of MLB is striking batters out at an insane pace. It's not like this is 1998. It feels like we're living in a bubble following this team. 

[glunn]

Nick, as you have stated, a player's defense can improve, as in the case of Plouffe.  My theory is that the best way to teach defense is repetition in a simulated game situation and that some players need more repetition than others.

 

 When I coached little league, we had a kid from Russia on the team.  The kid had never touched a baseball and did not possess any skill whatsoever in catching a ball, even a tennis ball.  We spent many hours throwing the ball then hitting the ball to this kid and a few others.  By the end of the year, the kid was able to make a game winning catch. 

 

I wonder how much time Arcia spends during the off season shagging balls hit by a live hitter. If Arcia worked diligently with good coaches to improve his defense, it seems to me that he could become a solid defender.  He is not slow and his arm seems strong.  With enough practice in simulated game situations, it seems to me that Arcia could learn to take better routes to the ball and make better throws.

 

Maybe what works in little league stops applying at some level?  My theory is that the best way to teach defense is repetition in a simulated game situation and that some players need more repetition than others, but improvement is always possible with repetition.  Am I just dreaming, or could Arcia get a lot better with an optimum training regime?  

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think the bulk of the bad defense is showing up in the OF where there are some vacancies as well. I do think Santana needs to go back to SS, even if that means a stint in AAA for him to work on his glovework, but Santana in CF, while showing promise, has been a defensive disaster, as has LF and RF this year as well. Arcia is the only given in the OF, so I think his best perscription is to spend the offseason doing just that. Getting a decent CF on a 1 year deal I think would help, and in LF, the team needs to decide who is going to play there.

[Kwak]

Removing infielders from the OF should help, so will the "moving on" of some Twins OFers.  But, I detect too much of a "fatherly attitude" towards players ("he will make it if we just give him more time...) ignoring that there are others in the organization (not far behind) waiting for their opportunity.  Management has to "cut throats" from time to time. 

 

Take Arcia, there are hitters coming up that are challenging for a major league job he can't receive the favorite son treatment for much longer.  Arcia has to demonstrate that he is a keeper, and soon.  Then there's the need for starting pitching... .  That's why there are trades.  Management can't complain about pitching while playing substandard fielders and boasting of their MiL system for long. 

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

If there's more than one butcher in the outfield, the result is a bloodbath on defense.

 

Arcia, I agree, will have to prove that he should keep his job with improved defense and plate discipline next year. He is capable of some impressive plays on both sides of the game, so with another season of experience now he should be starting to put it all together for 2015 and beyond. He doesn't have to be Torii out there in RF, just better than he's shown to this point.

 

Left and Center are big problems. Everybody's waiting for Buxton to arrive, but even a "can't miss" prospect is still a risk for injury (as we've seen this year). If he makes it, he'll probably be the star everyone says he will be, but he still has a way to go and a lot can happen in two years.

 

Arcia  in RF is likely the only spot that is set at the moment; all I want for Christmas this year is for the Twins to add a ML-Ready starting LF via Free agency or trade. Adding a short term CF (probably via trade) would really help as well. Schafer and Hicks can battle for the 4th Outfielder position.

[kab21]

The solution is clear and you touched on it at the end. A strikeout takes all chance and randomness off the table and leaves no question as to the outcome of the at bat, unlike a ball put in play.

 

The inexcusable disregard for strikeout pitchers at the MLB level and all the problems that become entangled in the archaic pitching philosophy they prefer is the biggest reason this team isn't winning.

 

I don't think it should be viewed as an either/or solution. Hitters still put 70-75% of their PA's in play off of elite pitchers in play.  That's a lot of fielding opportunities even if you have an elite staff. 

 

the one year defensive data shows average or better defensive stats throughout the infield.  it also shows dreadfully awful stats for every OF'er but Shafer and Fuld (not many innings for either).  It's not a big enough sample size to truly determine an individual's defensive ability but collectively it tells a definitive story.  Plays simply were not made (what defensive data measures) by the OF'ers. 

 

Given the roster makeup and prospect pipeline this is relatively correctable next season and the season after.  Hicks should be better with more experience.  Buxton will be up at some point providing better defense.  I don't hold out much hope for Arcia defensively but maybe he won't be as awful.

 

I like Nori Aoki as a stopgap OF'er/4th Of'er.

[Platoon]

I told my wife yesterday (she nodded her head in acknowledgement) that Arcia has the potential to be a very special power hitter. He has went with the pitch a little better lately, and is a little better at laying off pitches. Subjective observations, yes. But saying there are hitters like him coming up? Plus an outfield of Buxton, Hicks, and Arcia looks different than what we have now. Arcia biggest flaw is going towards center, Buxton will cure half of that. Last thought on Oswaldo, my memory of Tony O when he came up was of a very flawed fielder, with a great arm. He gradually became a more than adequate RF. He was a much higher contact hitter also, but I do not remember relief specialists like you see now. In baseball you cannot win consistently solely with hitting, or defense, or even pitching. Balance is needed, and the Twins need to tweak the pitching and defense each. Imagine this same team with Buxton in center, Hicks in left, and an athletic SS with range to cover up for Plouffie? The first two are available in house, the SS? Santanna?

[themattsonian]

IMO, this is all relative to pitching. Until we get pitchers that can actually strike people out, and get the defense off the field quicker, this team is hopeless. If you look around the league, most teams have a defensively sub-par corner outfielder in the starting lineup. That's probably what Arcia's destiny is going to be with the Twins. If your other two OF spots are league avg or above defenders, you're in good shape. How many games did the twins start Willingham in LF? Arcia can't be any worse than he was. But to me, this all boils down to pitching and strike outs. Whether that involves a change in philosophy (firing Anderson) or trading prospects for FRONT LINE starting pitching, I'm not sure. It seems like even our pitchers that are dominant strike out pitchers in the minor leagues are coming up and changing their philosophy. Something has to give here.

[pierre75275]

Trevor May for as bad as he has been has shown the ability to miss bats. Alex Meyer can miss bats. Phil Hughes misses bats. After that it gets worsem I am hopeful that the Nationals decline Spans option and the Twins pick him up. I realize that will cost Parmaleee or Colabello their roster spot and as much as i love collabello he needs to prove he belongs on this team. But i thing if Span shaffer and hicks are roaming the outfield instead of willngham collabello kubal parmalee i think the improvement will be noticable. also if meyer and may start with Hughes you will see a lot of strikouts.Both will help. Obviously there will be growing pains but he product would be an improvement

[Mike Sixel]

This is the point I've been making on threads for about 2 weeks....everyone complaining about the defense and how it needs to get better, all while saying they should keep these hitters around.

 

The game has both aspects. Just because a guy can hit (though not at a great level yet) like Arcia, that does not mean he is a good MLB player. If he can't field, and they have Vargas, there is not room for both of them (especially if you have no CF or LF also).

 

I totally disagree this boils down to strikeouts. This boils down to they have terrible defensive players. You won't make Arcia or Santana great fielders by getting more strikeouts. Balls that still should have been caught or cut off will still happen.

 

They need to decide if they are willing to live with terrible defense (and, therefore, a higher ERA than they should have) or not. 

[nicksaviking]

I don't disagree with anything you said, but we've got to be realistic. The Twins have ranked last in the league in strikeouts four straight years -- they're not going to suddenly shoot into the top half.

 

Hopefully they'll take some steps to make improvements in that category, but defense is still going to come into play heavily. There's no doubt about it.

 

Very true, but logistically speaking, it should be easier to replace the five players that make up the rotation than it is to replace the 8 players behind them.

 

It seems to me it's like the difference between treating a disease versus actually curing it. 

[Mike Sixel]

I disagree. It appears easier to find good OF than good SP, if you just look at the counts of them in the majors.

[Dantes929]

"In Defensive Efficiency (a measure of how many balls in play are converted into outs), the Twins rank 29th" This statistic has nothing to do with strikeouts. Its a measure of balls put into play being caught. IMO, the infield is adequate and the outfield is horrendous. Its not like the Twins had a great outfield in the past either with Young out there as well. I remember a series against the Rays where the Twins got swept when it could have been the other way around simply because the Rays outfield got to balls most outfielders wouldn't have and the Twins didn't get to balls they should have. As stated above you can hide one poor outfielder but not two. Most of the year we had Arcia and Willingham out there. Replace centerfield with Buxton and left field with Hicks or Rosario or even Schaefer and I am thinking we move up on the list.

[DJL44]

In a park that suppresses HR like Target Field a good OF defense is a must. No more  DH types in the outfield.

[Dantes929]

"They need to decide if they are willing to live with terrible defense (and, therefore, a higher ERA than they should have) or not" Pitchers have some effect on fielding with number of strikes they throw and pace at which they pitch. Twins fielders should have been better prepared knowing more pitches are put in play and aside from Pelfrey I didn't think the Twins pitchers were so bad for pace. I guess this might be offset by Twins pitchers being hit harder when they are hit so lets just call it a wash. In summary, pitching has marginal effect on defensive efficiency. Defensive efficiency has a tremendous effect on pitching.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

glunn made a strong point. Many times, hard work and repetition will help. It did help in Plouffe's case. The PP ran a short article on Plouffe's improved defense this year. I encourage anyone -- including Twins ownership and management -- to take a look.

 

http://www.twincities.com/twins/ci_26509192/twins-trevor-plouffe-seeks-gold-improved-play-field

[brvama]

The Twins sent Pinto down to work on defense.  What's wrong with doing the same with Arcia next year, at least to start the year?  I also believe that extra off-season coaching is mandatory for him and the club.  If the Twins don't want to invest in improving a talented hitter - trade him.

[iTwins]

A large portion of the Twins defensive woes can be attributed to their outfield defense. For most of the season, the team has run out Willingham (bad range, speed) Nunez (a shorstop / infielder) Santana (a shorstop) and Parmelee (not a horrible defender, but ideally still a firstbaseman) to various outfield roles.

 

I think the defensive woes can be alleviated (at least slightly) by filling these positions with actual outfielders. If the team adds a true LF (as has been addressed countless times here already) and allows Hicks / Buxton to play in CF the defense improves nicely already.

 

We have to hope that Arcia keeps learning the position and eventually becomes at least league average in RF. Right now, he's a disaster, but he's just too young to chalk up as a lost cause and relicate him to a fulltime DH role.

 

The infield defense isn't as big of a worry. Plouffe has become better, Dozier is above average, Mauer is improving and looks to be at least league average at first. Santana is the big question mark, but one possible issue out of four roles isn't too bad.

 

Catcher? Catcher concerns me. While Suzuki is good at blocking balls in the dirt, I haven't been impressed with the rest of his defensive game. Pinto is very much a work in progress and I worry that he'll never develop the tools needed. Like Arcia, he's young enough (older than Arica, but still young) to not quite give up on yet, but catcher is a much more demanding position to field.

 

There's questions around this team for sure, but they're young enough that I think those questions are to be expected. Hopefully the Twins address the OF (specifically LF) and Hicks finally earns CF - I think that will go a long way in helping the defense improve for next season.

[Siehbiscuit]

The 29th out of 30 metric isn't all on the defense. No one here is questioning an outfield of Willingham, Hicks and Arcia (Parmalee, Colabello, Santana too) is bad. But is there a stat (I'm sure their is) that shows batted ball speed? The balls that are hit off of our pitchers seem to be squared up more than other team's pitchers.

 

What I'm saying is is strikeouts lower total chances, but good pitchers make the hitters hit their pitch. It may be beaten into the ground or a lazy pop fly. Bad pitching gives up sceaming liners all over the place (See most Nolasco starts).

 

There is a reason 5 tool players are hard to find. They are rare. Either they can't hit or they struggle to field. Ben Revere could hit sans the power, but all we cared about here was the lack of arm. We aren't unhitching our wagon to Arcia or any of our cheap young players. We NEED better pitching. That is the best way to help our poor defensive players. Give them less opportunities to screw up and make the balls in play more routine.

[nicksaviking]

I disagree. It appears easier to find good OF than good SP, if you just look at the counts of them in the majors.

 

What about finding good OF, a good 3B, SS, 2B, 1B and C?

 

Because if we're going for plus defense to accomodate the pitch-to-contact arms, I'm not willing to sacrafice the offense.  It would see to me that getting 8 solid defenders that also can hit would be quite difficult.

[Mike Sixel]

But they don't need a better 3B or 2B right now, on defense, do they? And most believe Mauer will be better on D next year. We aren't talking about a vacuum here.

 

Where do you propose they get these much better pitchers next year?

[Kwak]

1K/inning (a very good rate!) still requires two more outs to finish an inning and nearly all of them occur on a batted-ball-in-play.  Allowing a "4th out" in an inning generally leads to more scoring--it is also deflating to the pitcher.  Tht "4th out" will happen, and the pitcher must learn to work through them, but if that "4th out" becomes a frequent occurance things will get ugly.  It is way too early to consider Arcia a fixture in the OF, he just hasn't put up the hitting numbers that permit overlooking all of the hits/runs he allows by his "defense".  He will be the starting RF next April because there isn't enough competition for a major league position right now--but that competition will soon emerge.  If Sano doesn't "cut it" as a 3B (a real probability) he likely would be moved to the OF.  Plus, there are OFers in the system on their way up--and very soon.

[Brandon]

Its time for post game defensive drills.  Especially after games when bone headed plays are made.  Drill the bad habits and mistakes out right after they make them. 

[TheLeviathan]

This issue is the number one reason I don't expect this team to sniff contention for at least two more seasons.  Buxton will help a lot, but the other big positional addition is a guy with some defensive question marks as well.

 

Assuming we can help transform these guys into competent defenders, it's going to take time.

[Mike Sixel]

At least 2 more? Ugh. Really ugh. That's a long time to be bad.

[TheLeviathan]

At least 2 more? Ugh. Really ugh. That's a long time to be bad.

 

It is, but I don't see how we can get significantly better when we're absolutely awful at a critical phase of the game.  We may have to seriously consider trading a guy like Arcia.  (Which I would be pretty sad to see, I'm a big fan of his offensive game)

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1) the twins have the third worst record in the MLB

2) the Twins have scored the 6th most runs in MLB

What did we just learn from 2 simple rank stats? That the Twins are behind the rest of the MLB in both pitching and fielding. It requires comprehensive quality in pitching, fielding, and hitting to win championships.

 

I think all aspects of the game can be improved to a point, with practice. But all require an amount of talent to excel. Arcia can be lived with (if he practices and improves) given his fielding talent limitations, if and only if, left field and center field are played by quality fielding players.

 

Buxton may be a step up from current in the fielding department, but he is only a prospect. Let us not forget that he was injured by a fielding mistake to end his season. That's not just snake-bitten dumb luck. That was a lack of execution that caused his injury, totally avoidable, and at least part Buxton's fault.