Article: A Closer Look at the 2015 Twins

[diehardtwinsfan]

It is true that the Twins scored many more runs in August than earlier in the season.  Consider when they scored those runs.  All too often they score a bunch when trailing by two bunches.  Or, when with a nice lead--say the six-run 10th inning, when two runs would be considered "a lot".  The Twins have far too few games where they score early and then grind down their opponent the rest of the game to secure victory by a small margin.  Hitting stats can be very misleading.  Sunday's 12-8 loss  is an example--score was 11-2 at one point, the next six runs weren't all that useful.  The lineup needs to be more productive early in the game to become a consistent winner.

I'd argue that this it true of any decent offense. Runs score in bunches. That's not new. The goal is to score a lot of them, and that's something that the current offense does very well. I'd add that it is even more impressive when you consider the fact that they were a pretty poor offensive team earlier in the year.

[JB_Iowa]

I'd argue that this it true of any decent offense. Runs score in bunches. That's not new. The goal is to score a lot of them, and that's something that the current offense does very well. I'd add that it is even more impressive when you consider the fact that they were a pretty poor offensive team earlier in the year.

 

Yep, and their record was still 11-18 so don't party too hearty.

[stringer bell]

I would say that consistency is a quality of a good offense.  I think that if a pitcher can reasonably count on 3-4 runs every day, he can pitch more comfortably, the infield doesn't have to play in early, the manager doesn't have to feel compelled to play for a run or two to take the lead early (read sacrifice bunts). 

 

Consistency would mean strength in the lineup, top to bottom, and production from different means of scoring runs--speed, power, bunching hits. 

[ashbury]

I'd argue that this it true of any decent offense. Runs score in bunches. That's not new. The goal is to score a lot of them, and that's something that the current offense does very well. I'd add that it is even more impressive when you consider the fact that they were a pretty poor offensive team earlier in the year.

You frequently find Runs/Game numbers for teams and leagues, but I don't remember ever seeing the next step taken and publish the standard deviation of runs scored by teams. 

 

With 20 runs against the Twins the other day, I would think sigma for the Twins would be a bit high, indicating an offense you can't rely on as much as the mean would suggest.

[TheLeviathan]

Is it? I guess I don't really agree. They're two of the top prospects in baseball and they've both played at Double-A. Either way, as drjim notes, at most the team would be looking to sign short-term stopgaps to keep their seats warm, so any additions at those positions would (logically) be relatively minor.

 

Stop gaps are fine too, but not addressing it at all is what cannot happen.  However, until "played at" Double A represents a better indication of readiness I'm not going to plan on them being slotted into this team's plans.  And neither should the team.

[Yoshii]

Nick, I just want to say that you are amazing.  I have followed your blog since 2009 and have thoroughly enjoyed it all the way. The attention brought up recently, negative or positive, only reiterates how good of a writer, blogger, analyzer you are.  I too thought you were affiliated with the Twins at one point, but that's newb talk....you always keep it real and address the issues that matter most, by getting right down to the point!  Keep up the good work Nick!!!!

[Deduno Abides]

Strong optimism for 2015 with the present roster and minor leaguers requires the following:

 

(1) Phil Hughes not to develop an elbow or shoulder issue or otherwise repeat his historical pattern of one good year followed by one or two bad years;

 

(2) Joe Mauer to return to the physical skills of ages 24-28 during his 32nd year of living, and not to require extended time on the DL or fatuous excuses from management, and to recover his batting eye or bat speed or whatever it was that caused his BB/K ratio this year to be his career worst by a long shot;

 

(3) Byron Buxton at age 22 to perform like Andrew McCutcheon when he was 25, even though McCutcheon had a .770 OPS in AAA when he was 21, whereas Buxton had a lost year in A/AA at the same age, and McCutcheon did not fully approach dominance until his fourth year in the majors;

 

(4) Miguel Sano to perform at age 22 like Miguel Cabrera performed at age 22, even though Cabrera at 21 was a major league all-star, an age at which Sano did not play, and Cabrera received major league MVP votes at age 20, an age at which Sano played A/AA;

 

(5) Alex Meyer to be healthy and effective (and given a meaningful chance and not criticized publicly by his coaches or their media mouthpieces every time he doesn't look like Roy Halladay in his prime);

 

(6) Ricky Nolasco to be, not just better, but significantly better than he was this year, even though the only year in his career he was more than a 1.8 WAR pitcher was 2008, when he was 25;

 

(7) Danny Santana and Kennys Vargas not to significantly regress and Oswaldo Arcia to significantly improve;

 

(8) Kurt Suzuki to confirm that he has reached a new level of performance and not to regress into the Suzuki of 2010-2013;

 

(9) Trevor May to significantly improve (this may be the most likely item on this list);

 

(10) Tommy Milone and/or Mike Pelfrey to be serviceable major league pitchers;

 

(11) The team to rebuild its bullpen and hope that Glen Perkins stays strong and Casey Fien of 2015 doesn't turn into Jared Burton of 2014; and

 

(12) One or two minor leaguers with question marks - Pinto? Hicks? Rosario? - to figure out what's holding them back and make an impact.

 

If you're comfortable that the negative items in this list are unlikely and the positive items are likely, then you should be comfortable not making significant moves this winter.  If, on the other hand, you are pessimistic about several items on this list, the Twins should either go after Max Scherzer and/or James Shields and a couple of bats, or push even harder to rebuild the minor league system by trading for top prospects like the Cubs did in getting Addison Russell and others. 

 

My guess is that some of these items will be positive, while several will be negative.  Sure, the team looks more hopeful this year, with the emergence of some young players and the pitching of Phil Hughes, but the team is once again collectively a 90+ loss team.  If all else holds even or improves (e.g., Dozier, Cabrera, Gibson, left field) and these items are on balance mildly positive, the team likely would still be sub .500.  To truly compete for the post-season without major changes in the roster, these items must on balance be mostly positive and the Doziers, Gibsons and Cabreras must be much better. 

[Shane Wahl]

Suzuki, Pinto, Herrmann

Mauer

Dozier

Santana

Plouffe

Escobar

Schafer

Hicks

Arcia

Vargas

somebody else (Romero, Beresford, Parmelee, Nunez, FA)

 

Hughes

Gibson

Nolasco

Meyer

May

 

Darnell/somebody

Oliveros/Achter

Pressly

Tonkin

Thielbar

Fien

Perkins

 

Likely 25-man roster.

 

Likely 80 wins next season.

[glunn]

This has been an interesting thread, and people have been frank yet respectful.  Nick, you have done a great job of keeping this interesting and you have received some great analysis from our members.

 

I tend to agree with those who would like to see the Twins go for an ace and a LF.  Most of us seem to view these positions as areas of need, but some people have expressed concern about the likelihood that an ace free agent would want to play for a 90+ loss team.

 

I wonder if Scherzer might appreciate the benefits of playing at Target Field and the general ambiance of the Twin Cities.  Maybe Scherzer appreciates the devotion/class of Twins fans that he sees when he plays at Target Field and maybe he would like to be the undisputed leader of a pitching staff.   Maybe Scherzer would like to be part of a rebuilding effort that will soon include Buxton, Sano etc.  If the Twins were to offer top dollar, it seems like Scherzer might logically conclude that playing for the Twins could be his best move.

[Mike Sixel]

Players go where the money is. If they Twins offer more money, they have a chance. If they low ball the players and "can't give their money away", they won't.

[DJL44]

Maybe Scherzer appreciates the devotion/class of Twins fans that he sees when he plays at Target Field

 

Which fans, the ones who boo Mauer or the ones who threw hot dogs at Knoblauch?

[Major League Ready]

How many legit "Aces" have been signed in free agency by teams outside the top 10 in revenue?  Let's say in the last 20 years.

 

If this is a good idea for the Twins, shouldn't the Astros and Cubs, White Sox, and Diamond Backs also be pursuing the elite FA starters?

[Mike Sixel]

Yes, it would be a good idea for them also

[Major League Ready]

Can you name an elite starter signed in FA by a team outside the top 10 in revenue that was not a retention or extension?

[Mike Sixel]

So no team has done, so no team should do it? I have never believed that in any part of life.

[JB_Iowa]

If you are a legit top-of-the-rotation starter, are you willing to put your career in the hands of Rick Anderson and Ron Gardenhire?
 

Think about it.

 

It seems to have worked for Hughes this year but he was making a turnaround.  Wouldn't you rather go somewhere that has shown success with elite pitchers?

[Mike Sixel]

Hard to say what I'd do if the Twins offered me more money than anyone else.....btw, I don't expect that to happen, but I'm saying there is no reason it shouldn't, imo. It is cool with me if you disagree that they should spend money on elite players, neither of us actually get to make that decision.

[JB_Iowa]

Hard to say what I'd do if the Twins offered me more money than anyone else.....btw, I don't expect that to happen, but I'm saying there is no reason it shouldn't, imo. It is cool with me if you disagree that they should spend money on elite players, neither of us actually get to make that decision.

 

I've no problem with them trying to sign an elite pitcher.  I just think that Anderson and Gardenhire need to be gone a month from now.

[Mike Sixel]

I've no problem with them trying to sign an elite pitcher.  I just think that Anderson and Gardenhire need to be gone a month from now.

 

I agree with that. 100%.

[stringer bell]

I agree with JB.  Gardenhire is fine as a manager, but sometimes you just need a change for change's sake.  The evidence (IMHO) is mounting that whatever message Anderson gives works with less than the average number of pitchers.  He and the Twins have been walk-averse, first and foremost, and willing to believe in "pitch to contact", which has become a cruel joke.  It worked a lot better when the Twins had above-average fielders at eight of the nine defensive positions.  That isn't the case now, and doesn't look like it will be like that any time soon. 

 

The position player situation seems far more positive than the pitching despite the near-total loss of a season from two of the top five prospects in baseball.  The pitching is poor and the prospects for improvement seem to be getting further and further away.

[Steven Buhr]

So I guess the question you have to ask yourself is, would an elite FA pitcher be more likely to view the Twins as a possible landing spot with the same Manager/Pitching Coach they've had for years and, most recently, through soon-to-be 4 years of 90+ loss seasons OR with a brand new Manager/Pitching Coach duo?

 

Honestly, I think different pitchers could look at that different ways, but I'm not sure either one lends itself to being a real selling point. But I suspect elite pitchers are less concerned about who the pitching coach is than we might think. They don't view themselves as likely to need much coaching.

 

Also, re: the "no team outside the top 10 in revenue has bought elite pitching" debate. I think that's a pretty bad comp to make. How many of those teams clearly had the payroll space to spend (and even overspend if necessary) in a bidding contest for an elite pitcher? Few, if any. But the Twins find themselves in a unique spot right now in that regard.

 

For the next several years, the only significant salary they are likely to have on the books is Joe Mauer's. Perhaps, depending on your definition of "significant," you might add Glen Perkins. But for years the studs on this team will be cost controlled.

 

The Twins ranking among MLB teams in revenues is dropping every year. There's a reason for that. But they aren't THAT far behind some of the teams that are in the top 10 and they SHOULD be in that range. They WOULD be with a competitive team.

 

I get that it's unlikely an elite FA pitcher would want to pitch for Minnesota right now. I understand that it's equally unlikely that the Twins would pursue such a pitcher anyway. Just saying I believe that not having such a pitcher IS a flaw in the roster that the FO at least could/should be attempting to remedy via trade or free agency.

[clank2000]

 

Yep. In the original article that this one is following up on, I said I thought left field is the one spot where the Twins could stand to make a significant addition, so I agree with you there. I'd like to see them sign or trade for an established corner OF bat to stabilize a talented but young lineup.

 

How bad could Pinto be in left field?  I realize he's played a grand total of 3 games there in his minor league career, and had an error in 2 of those, but it would be a good idea to get him some positional flexibility.  And I believe he has plenty of bat to work as a corner outfielder.

[Brock Beauchamp]

How bad could Pinto be in left field?  I realize he's played a grand total of 3 games there in his minor league career, and had an error in 2 of those, but it would be a good idea to get him some positional flexibility.  And I believe he has plenty of bat to work as a corner outfielder.

Not a bad idea, particularly if the Twins don't think he can catch (and given how they've worked him, they don't seem to think he can catch).

 

Now that I think about it more, it's not a bad idea either way. Josmil's floor is way higher than Herrmann, as is his ceiling.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

hey - J.B. Shuck was DFA'd . . . http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/09/angels-designate-michael-kohn-j-b-shuck.html

 

Twins could use a cost controlled outfielder like him...

[Major League Ready]

I think it is safe to say that elite FA SPs are not a new idea to teams outside the top whatever number you want to use in terms of revenue.  If we go back over the top FA SPs for the past 10 years we will find they all landed with 7 or 8 teams. 

 

We can safely conclude that all of those other teams were aware of their availability but NONE of them EVER made such an acquisition.  Are they all incompetent?  Do the fans who promote this approach know more about manage a MLB franchise? 

 

It is not a matter of if the they can come up with the budget.  The Astros had a $12M payroll last year.  Did they make any such transaction?  The cubs had the payroll room and so have other clubs in this position over the course  of the last decade or two.

 

The strategy looks pretty good if viewed in the context of the first year or two.  What about in 2016 and 2017 when we could actually be in contention.  Mauer, Nolasco and XX Elite SP would constitute 50% of the entire payroll budget.  (if the Twins set new revenue records)  That is a scary thought.  Mauer and Nolasco are likely to way underperform by then.  So now we should take on another huge contract of someone who is very likely going to also underperform in the final couple years of their contract.  And we would do this so we could be mediocre the next couple years and then have a bunch of dead weight on the books about the time we start getting good.

 

You don't have to look very hard to see the ONLY successful model for mid-market or small-market teams is to draft and develop.  Of course smart trades help too. 

[SwainZag]

This has been an interesting thread, and people have been frank yet respectful.  Nick, you have done a great job of keeping this interesting and you have received some great analysis from our members.

 

I tend to agree with those who would like to see the Twins go for an ace and a LF.  Most of us seem to view these positions as areas of need, but some people have expressed concern about the likelihood that an ace free agent would want to play for a 90+ loss team.

 

I wonder if Scherzer might appreciate the benefits of playing at Target Field and the general ambiance of the Twin Cities.  Maybe Scherzer appreciates the devotion/class of Twins fans that he sees when he plays at Target Field and maybe he would like to be the undisputed leader of a pitching staff.   Maybe Scherzer would like to be part of a rebuilding effort that will soon include Buxton, Sano etc.  If the Twins were to offer top dollar, it seems like Scherzer might logically conclude that playing for the Twins could be his best move.

 

I don't really see the landing place being the problem it's the money AND years offered that really counts.  I think teams with huge payrolls...see....NY, LA, BOS, etc. are able to offer a guy in his 30's a 7 year 150M+ contract and worry a lot less about the future than a team like the Twins who is ponying up 20-25% of their payroll to an arm for the better part of the next decade.  

[Nick Nelson]

Nick, I just want to say that you are amazing.  I have followed your blog since 2009 and have thoroughly enjoyed it all the way. The attention brought up recently, negative or positive, only reiterates how good of a writer, blogger, analyzer you are.  I too thought you were affiliated with the Twins at one point, but that's newb talk....you always keep it real and address the issues that matter most, by getting right down to the point!  Keep up the good work Nick!!!!

Wow! Thank you! Too kind.

[Mike Sixel]

Scarier thought is hoping that you draft an 18 year old, and he works out in 6-7 years......because at that rate, you don't have 5 starters. Plus, I'm told that it is nearly impossible to draft well past 10 or so (it is cyclical, I'm told), so the odds they draft good starters in 2 or 3 years when they aren't losing 90 games are low, right?

 

If the Cubs do sign a legit FA this year, and it works, does that mean that now it has been done, and it is ok for other teams to do it?

[DocBauer]

And yet, another well thought out thread with lots of arguments and opinions that are well argued and thought out. I really enjoy both parts of the 2015 thread Nick, and wish to be yet another to compliment you on them. Sorry to inform you that the two of us seem to be of similar thought most of the time. Lol

 

I still agree, in principle, that the roster is mostly set for 2015. Again, this does not mean there isn't room for improvement, internally in the current roster proposed, as well as top prospects in the system, a few who are approaching quickly. And it doesn't mean there isn't room for improvement externally as well.

 

You can approach the Twins rebuild from two different perspectives. One is that they still aren't a playoff team yet, and we should sign and trade wherever we can to blow most of the roster up. Of course, there is no guarantee that approach will work. There are injuries, regression, poor fits, bad chemistry, and then you've lost prospects and committed multiple millions and lost financial flexibility. Two is that you continue to develop the young talent that has come up this season, is on it's way, and supplement. Of course, there is also no guarantee this will work either.

 

The Twins are no longer just a cute little try hard "small market" team revenue sharing and Target Field have done a lot to change that. But the Twins are also not, nor ever will be, a NY, Boston, Chicago, LA franchise with the resources to burn cash.

 

The Twins, and their young prospects, are not "THERE" yet, however you want to define that. But they have and are promoting and playing youngsters of varying potential: Arcia, Vargas, Santana, Dozier, Escobar, Gibson and May. You could toss Hick in there depending on perspective. They spent real money on the rotation in Hughes and Nolasco, and even tried to sign more in Garza.

 

Other than LF, and potentially CF, where, honestly, does this team spend real money, on a decent length contract, to improve itself long term over the player currently there, or really close? CF is short term due to Buxton, but said player could slide to LF or be a really good 4th OF player. SS? So you'd spend big money or trade quality prospects for who? And over the options of Escobar, Santana and soon, possibly Polanco? We already have the most production and talent at that position in years, with the possibility of more to come. LF is really the only option to sign or trade for someone more talented than what we have in place, and without blocking a top prospect or solid player in place.

 

Yes, I AM an optimist. Still, the Twins didn't sign Nolasco to a Twins record FA contract because he was Pelfrey or Correia. He is a big notch or two above those guys. And you have to believe a healthy Nolasco will provide a solid season next year after an unfortunate and mostly lost season this year. Odds and past production alone state this. May has kind of sucked so far. Honestly, who cares? I was hoping for a dynamite start, but it doesn't always work that way. Even when he has sucked, he's struck guys out. (Remember, we don't have anyone who can do that) He's growing, learning, eating up experience and lessons to prepare himself for 2015, much in the same way Gibson did last season. His last start didn't turn out great, but showed improvement. Tonight was clearly his best start and a real boost! Will he pull a Gibson-sized move next season? Unknown, but the parallel and the talent are there to do so. Milone has kind of sucked thus far, and been generally disappointing...BUT...his previous track record is solid. Let's give him at least a small break shall we? Meyer could be a future stud, but is still young, developing, searching for the hated C-word, consistency, but could be a big part of 2015 at some point, if not immediately. Pelfrey? I don't know. Finally healthy, pitching like he did at times with the Mets and the Twins in 2013, he could be a nice fill in, or a possible pen option. His contract is not big, and could be gone without pain.

 

Point is, there is hope and options for 2015. The Twins actually made a concerted effort to sign Garza last season even after signing Hughes and Nolasco. That tells me they are not opposed to doing so again. Though I do think it's naive to just state; "go sign or trade for an ace pitcher". They have the money to spend, no doubt. Is it prudent to tie up big money and years in to another SP along with Nolasco, and Hughes, who you might want to sign to an extension? That's really the question I think. I simply don't buy that a high end SP wouldn't sign with the Twins after 4 losing seasons. Why? Because said pitcher is not only getting paid, but he and his agent also recognize they are deepening what could be a quality rotation, would be playing in one of the best ballparks in all of baseball, and have a talented group of youngsters around them, with more on the way.

 

I'd love to just throw open the bullpen to massive competition with no single spot spoken for except Perkins a and probably Fien. That might be impractical, but it would be fun. If we want to build this team the right way, I'd sign a LF and keep my prospects. I'd sign one quality FA setup guy for the pen.

 

I have to admit, I'm intrigued and excited, but wary, about that one big SP signing. The money is there. But long term, is it prudent?

[DarrenVahtra]

Looking at the top lf free agents i struggled to keep my dinner down.  If they were to sign anyone it would be one of the top fa pitchers but i feel like the price of admission will be too high.  The baseball playoff are such a crapshoot i don't feel like spending huge money on free agents is a recipe for success.  With the tigers about to enter contract hell, the sox about 2 years behind the twins in their rebuild and the just flat out ineptitude of the royals and indians i feel like the twins are poised to take another long stay atop the central.  This was our snakebit year i've been a fan for over 20 years and i've never seen the injuries this bad.  Next year people will keep following the path that they're supposed to be on.  We have a top 10 offensive club right now and most of the lineup isn't in they're prime.  i fully agree with nick, stay the course, believe in your scouting.  Also as an aside keep jordan schafer he would be the best 4th outfielder in baseball.