Interesting interview with Terry Ryan

[jokin]

birdwacher's best post ever. he should probably retire right now.

 

seriously, I agree with every word here. Every. Single. Word.

 

Ditto.

[TheLeviathan]

This last part was spot on:

 

The problem that led to the Santana debacle and other such catastrophes is still there IMO. The lack of a disciplined and strategic approach to managing player assets is Ryan's Achilles Heal in my view. It's been masked by his accomplishments at getting something for fringe assets like Hollins and Fuld.

 

 

It simply can't be overstated how much value was bungled in the Hunter and Santana situations alone and they are 100% on Ryan. 

[gunnarthor]

No one was talking about 2012 and that kind of tangent is exactly why that question needs to go away.  The comment was made about Ryan's long history in FA and he's been pretty putrid in his results going back more than a decade.  FA is just not Ryan's strength and that's all the comment was saying.

 

When Kevin Correia might make your "Top 3 signed Free Agents" in easy fashion...it's hard to argue with that.  No matter what hypotheticals or red herrings you want to throw out there, Ryan has never utilized FA well.

But if you're arguing about FA in the small market days, then you have to take payroll into account.  It's not really realistic that the Twins would have been big players in FA.

 

Ryan, before he retired the first time, never made huge FA picks.  Since he's come back, he's made a couple of solid FA signings for a mid market team that we are still debating - Nolasco looks bad, Hughes looks good, Hammer was fine etc.

 

My feeling on the FA stuff is that it's too early to worry about it.  The team needs to have a foundation put in place before it uses FA to complete a rebuild.  If, in a few years, he's not using the entire payroll to support the Buxton/Sano foundation, then we should complain.  But I'm not going to worry too much about fringe FA while the team rebuilds - and you see that Hoyer and Lunhow are doing more or less the same thing - rebuild by creating a strong farm system through drafts and trades and international signings.  

[tobi0040]

No one was talking about 2012 and that kind of tangent is exactly why that question needs to go away.  The comment was made about Ryan's long history in FA and he's been pretty putrid in his results going back more than a decade.  FA is just not Ryan's strength and that's all the comment was saying.

 

When Kevin Correia might make your "Top 3 signed Free Agents" in easy fashion...it's hard to argue with that.  No matter what hypotheticals or red herrings you want to throw out there, Ryan has never utilized FA well.

 

From 2001 to 2010, did Terry Ryan ever have a budget for a single impact free agent?  It seems to me payroll was maxed out for just keeping our players and in many cases he didn't even have the budget for that.  From 2012 on, he was brought in for a rebuild. 

 

The issue I have is we don't know and will never know what the budget was, so if 80% of the free agents are off-limits it is a little harsh to say he has never been good at free agency. 

 

I think the Pohlads have given him $4,000 to go to the local car dealership and buy the best car he can.  So I can't sit here and say he doesn't know how to pick out nice cars.

[gunnarthor]

This last part was spot on:

 

 

It simply can't be overstated how much value was bungled in the Hunter and Santana situations alone and they are 100% on Ryan. 

How are they 100% on Ryan?  Santana had an entire year left on his contract when Ryan left.  All that is his fault?  Wow.  I mean that is literally like saying Dayton Moore should have traded David Price last year at the deadline since his team was out of it and shouldn't expect to be much better a year from then.

[TheLeviathan]

But if you're arguing about FA in the small market days, then you have to take payroll into account.  It's not really realistic that the Twins would have been big players in FA.

 

That's fine, take it into account. No problem with that. It just doesn't change the fact that he has largely nickeld and dimed his way through the Mike Lambs of the world.

[TheLeviathan]

From 2001 to 2010, did Terry Ryan ever have a budget for a single impact free agent?.

Bill Smith needed less than 7M to do more than Ryan did in a decade.

[tobi0040]

That's fine, take it into account. No problem with that. It just doesn't change the fact that he has largely nickeld and dimed his way through the Mike Lambs of the world.

 

Who should he have signed for $3M each year?

[tobi0040]

How are they 100% on Ryan?  Santana had an entire year left on his contract when Ryan left.  All that is his fault?  Wow.  I mean that is literally like saying Dayton Moore should have traded David Price last year at the deadline since his team was out of it and shouldn't expect to be much better a year from then.

 

Blame Ryan for the Santana thing all you want.  That is fine, he got a 22 year old CF that would become one of the best in the league.  Is the Twins rushing and not being patient with Gomez also Ryan's fault?

[nicksaviking]

I do not use it when I am discussing how good a pitcher is, because it is not appropriate in that context.  This is a discussion about record, which is all about wins and losses, and I cannot find a better one to use other than W-Ls.  Want to use WAR comparisons instead?   Can do that, and it will say the same thing

 

Here:

 

2011: Pavano 2, Garza 2.8 (Diff: +1)

2012: Pavano -0.8, Garza 1.2 (Diff: +2)

2013: Correia 1.6, Garza 1.4 (Diff: 0)

2014: Correia 0.2, Garza 1 (Diff: +1)

 

So: 97, 94, 95, 90

 

Well you were using Wins for players on other teams and transfering them to the Twins.  Garza's wins with TB/CHI would not neccissarily been wins for the Twins, obviously the inverse would also be true with Pavano, or whoever we wanted to take off the team. 

 

Not a big WAR guy, but I do like it better for pitchers since the defensive apsect is negated, it surely is a better fit for your arguement.

[TheLeviathan]

How are they 100% on Ryan?  Santana had an entire year left on his contract when Ryan left.  All that is his fault?  Wow.  I mean that is literally like saying Dayton Moore should have traded David Price last year at the deadline since his team was out of it and shouldn't expect to be much better a year from then.

Do we really need to rehash the insulting offers and stubborn negotiating tactics? Ryan's approach destroyed all trade leverage and possibility for redemption. It was a David Kahn like bungling that he doesn't get nearly enough flak for.

 

Pity Smith didn't have LeBron to bail him out of his predecessors mistakes.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I don't think that's completely fair.  Sure, Hunter, Santana and Silva were leaving and that was huge.  But, as posted elsewhere, Garza, Slowey, Perkins, Liriano and Swarzak had all been top 100 guys and all but Swarzak were in the high minors at that point (or the majors).  At the time, pitching was considered a real strength of the team but that they couldn't develop bats.  The team was still mostly young with guys like Mauer, Morneau, Span, Cuddy, Baker, Garza, Bartlett, Casilla, Kubel, Blackburn, Crain, Slowey, Boof etc still in their prime or entering it.  They also had a shut down bullpen.  That core went to two striaght 163 games and then exploded in 2010.  That wasn't exactly shoestring and duct tape.

I see your point, but I seem to remember some farm systems around 2009/2010 that time that were highlighted by some pretty weak prospects (BlackBurn, Tyler Robertson, etc). Heck, Sano has been a near consensus number 1 for quite some time largely b/c there was nothing that looked to be high impact in the high minors. I could be off on my timelines, but even though Smith was in charge at that point, the system was largely Ryans.

[tobi0040]

Bill Smith needed less than 7M to do more than Ryan did in a decade.

 

This might sound ridiculous, but it is true. In most years from 2001 to 2010, Terry didn't have $7M to spend.

[bird]

You aren't using the Sid Hartman story for the first quote are you?

You aren't asking a rhetorical question, are you? 

 

Another pet peeve of mine, using some random quote, ignoring all else, and then bringing a person's honesty into question. 

[drjim]

That's fine, take it into account. No problem with that. It just doesn't change the fact that he has largely nickeld and dimed his way through the Mike Lambs of the world.

 

Bill Smith signed Mike Lamb (and Adam Everett).

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

That's fine, take it into account. No problem with that. It just doesn't change the fact that he has largely nickeld and dimed his way through the Mike Lambs of the world.

 

Interesting example. Lamb had come off a .800+ OPS season and was considered a pretty decent signing. It just didn't work out.

 

It was the Livan Hernandez/Ramon Ortiz/Juan Castro signings that made me cringe.

[Mike Sixel]

McPhail signed the largest FA signing at the time in MLB history in the dome......do we know Ryan's hands were tied? We don't know. All we can know is how the signings turned out.

[drjim]

This last part was spot on:

 

 

It simply can't be overstated how much value was bungled in the Hunter and Santana situations alone and they are 100% on Ryan. 

 

He did bungle it but it wasn't a catastrophe. Hunter resulted in 2 first rounders and Santana still had value to move.

 

My biggest complaint is the half baked sell off at the deadline. He should have kept everyone or moved everyone (as was mentioned, Twins were only 6 games out and had a history of coming back in previous years). Muddling in the middle was a terrible idea and left Smith in a bad spot - that is absolutely on Ryan.

[TheLeviathan]

This might sound ridiculous, but it is true. In most years from 2001 to 2010, Terry didn't have $7M to spend.

My bad on Lamb, but on the 2007 roster alone he spent more than 7M on Ramon Ortiz, Jeff Cirillo, Rondell White, and Sidney Ponson.

 

Just saying.

[jokin]

How are they 100% on Ryan?  Santana had an entire year left on his contract when Ryan left.  All that is his fault?  Wow.  I mean that is literally like saying Dayton Moore should have traded David Price last year at the deadline since his team was out of it and shouldn't expect to be much better a year from then.

 

How could Dayton Moore have traded a Tampa Bay player?  

[tobi0040]

My bad on Lamb, but on the 2007 roster alone he spent more than 7M on Ramon Ortiz, Jeff Cirillo, Rondell White, and Sidney Ponson.

 

Just saying.

 

Having 7M to spend on 4 positions is different than having $7M to spend on one.  From 2005 on we let players leave almost every year because we could not afford them.  Do we know for sure he did not have money to spend?  probably not, but I think you would have seen us keep more guys around if we had the money for them. 

 

That seems like a reasonable assumption.

[TheLeviathan]

He did bungle it but it wasn't a catastrophe. Hunter resulted in 2 first rounders and Santana still had value to move.

 

My biggest complaint is the half baked sell off at the deadline. He should have kept everyone or moved everyone (as was mentioned, Twins were only 6 games out and had a history of coming back in previous years). Muddling in the middle was a terrible idea and left Smith in a bad spot - that is absolutely on Ryan.

 

Santana was the best pitcher in baseball his value got dramatically reduced by the lack of leverage.  The lowball offers and refusal to negotiate midseason cost the Twins dearly.  It should have been a bidding war and it became a "take this or leave it" war.

 

That is a catastrophic loss of value.

[bird]

How big of Ryan not to "hold" his boss to the notion that at-will employment doesn't apply to the GM of an MLB team. It's just another statement in a long line - Ryan talks about accountability, he just doesn't practice it.

Sorry, but have you been reading much of what Ryan's been telling reporters over the last couple of years? Wow. I mean, how could anyone possibly practice accountability more diligently than Ryan has? Name me one single instance, just one, in which Ryan has blamed someone else for a problem or used some lame excuse. And even if you can find that one, we can find dozens and dozens of examples where he's told us that it's on him. With sincerity at that.

[drjim]

McPhail signed the largest FA signing at the time in MLB history in the dome......do we know Ryan's hands were tied? We don't know. All we can know is how the signings turned out.

 

We do know, and his hands were absolutely tied his entire first tenure. The economics of baseball changed after the 1994 strike. Why do you think MacPhail left?

[gunnarthor]

Do we really need to rehash the insulting offers and stubborn negotiating tactics? Ryan's approach destroyed all trade leverage and possibility for redemption. It was a David Kahn like bungling that he doesn't get nearly enough flak for.

 

Pity Smith didn't have LeBron to bail him out of his predecessors mistakes.

 

 

 

I see your point, but I seem to remember some farm systems around 2009/2010 that time that were highlighted by some pretty weak prospects (BlackBurn, Tyler Robertson, etc). Heck, Sano has been a near consensus number 1 for quite some time largely b/c there was nothing that looked to be high impact in the high minors. I could be off on my timelines, but even though Smith was in charge at that point, the system was largely Ryans.

By 09, Revere and Ramos (both Ryan guys) and Hicks were the only top 100.  Revere was the 07 draft.  The 05 draft was already in the majors - Garza, Slowey and Duensing.  The 04 draft had Perkins in the majors, 3 injured starting pitchers and a long developing Plouffe.  03 draft already had Baker in the majors.  The only development hiccup by 09 was on the 06 draft - Parmelee wasn't a highly rated prospect anymore, Benson would become a 2x top 100 guy but a ML bust and Robertson would be a journeyman reliever.  Valencia helped out in 2010.  So I think most of Ryan's minor league development was already off the books by 09.

 

The big problem, which isn't really on anyone, is the unfortunate injuries to that 04 class.  All four pitchers taken in the first round ended up getting surgery.  Swarzak was a good 2nd round pick.  BA rated the Twins draft the only A draft at the time.  Crap happens.  

[TheLeviathan]

Having 7M to spend on 4 positions is different than having $7M to spend on one.  From 2005 on we let players leave almost every year because we could not afford them.  Do we know for sure he did not have money to spend?  probably not, but I think you would have seen us keep more guys around if we had the money for them. 

 

That seems like a reasonable assumption.

 

He chose to spend that money that way.  It was 7 wasted million.  If all he can do is dumpster dive...that's fine....but he'd better be good at it.

 

And he wasn't.  Ever in his tenure.

[gunnarthor]

How could Dayton Moore have traded a Tampa Bay player?  

Shields, obviously.  My bad.

[drjim]

Santana was the best pitcher in baseball his value got dramatically reduced by the lack of leverage.  The lowball offers and refusal to negotiate midseason cost the Twins dearly.  It should have been a bidding war and it became a "take this or leave it" war.

 

That is a catastrophic loss of value.

 

Santana also had a no trade at the deadline. There were probably workarounds, but it wasn't as simple as it seems.

 

What it would have taken is a strategic decision a couple of weeks before the deadline to sell, which obviously he didn't do, perhaps rightly.

[bird]

I'm not sure that I disagree, but I don't recall you ever using Wins by a starter as a valid statistical measure.  It kind of seems convenient for your arguement here.

C'mon now, nick. These are statistics, and we all know statistics are objective. 

[TheLeviathan]

Santana also had a no trade at the deadline. There were probably workarounds, but it wasn't as simple as it seems.

 

What it would have taken is a strategic decision a couple of weeks before the deadline to sell, which obviously he didn't do, perhaps rightly.

 

The problems started long before then.  I could link to many more examples - the seeds of that debacle were planted long before that bizarre deadline.