Article: Only One Spot to Address for 2015?

[tobi0040]

How do you define low revenue?

 

I believe that the Twins did get revenue sharing this year.  While that doesn't make them "low revenue", it is a concern.

 

Major problem is the TV deal ... it just doesn't seem commensurate with what other teams are getting.

 

I don't think the Twins are low revenue ..... but I also don't think it is as "rosy" as many of us thought 4 years ago.

 

This graph shows them at 16th out of 30th in 2013.  I am guessing the top 15 provide revenue for the bottom 15.  But that is pretty close to middle in my book. 

 

Not to mention the capital appreciation of the franchise pre and post staduim.  From a ROI perspective I am guessing we are top 2-3 over the last 5-6 years.  We are close to $700M now and we were just over $200M pre-stadium if I recall.  350% return.

 

http://www.statista.com/statistics/193645/revenue-of-major-league-baseball-teams-in-2010/

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

It was tough to make an argument 2-3 years ago to go after big name FA's since there was nothing resembling a core and most of the prospects were 3+ years away.  Now there is a core developing with multiple top prospects ready to be called up.  It's pretty reasonable to think that an elite player would still be in his prime during a Twins playoff run if the Twins ante'd up this offseason or next even if they weren't immediately contenders.

 

I think the issue right now, is that the Twins need to figure out which core guys are core guys and which ones aren't. At the beginning of the season, if someone had said that we will be set at SS for the forseable future, that person would have been laughed out of here. Now, there's a lot more optimism given how Santana and Escobar have performed this season... enough that people won't be clamoring for a SS this offseason. The Twins have added some new guys, and some of them are going to take some lumps. Some will be good. Some will fail. It's still too early to determine who is going to succeed or fail. I think you let the kids do their thing... If they want an LF, I'm fine with that, but I'd look more to the young, cost controlled, high upside guys... but those are only available by trade and won't come cheaply, as they won't be asking for a Rosario, Duffey, Walker combo.

[JB_Iowa]

Things are not as rosy because the Twins will have lost 90-100 games for 4 straight years.  One way to grow revenues (or keep them from sliding) is to field a better team by investing in it like you would a business. 

 

It was tough to make an argument 2-3 years ago to go after big name FA's since there was nothing resembling a core and most of the prospects were 3+ years away.  Now there is a core developing with multiple top prospects ready to be called up.  It's pretty reasonable to think that an elite player would still be in his prime during a Twins playoff run if the Twins ante'd up this offseason or next even if they weren't immediately contenders. 

 

 

I have absolutely no problem with the Twins going after an elite pitcher or for that matter, adding a stellar outfielder (preferably Spanish speaking).

 

I just think we have to be aware that while Target Field boosted the Twins' revenue, they still have the problem of the mediocre local TV revenues.  And, as someone pointed out above, Target Field revenues are likely to keep slipping.

 

Best way to increase revenue at TF?  Win.  Terry Ryan does have plenty to spend on short-to-mid-term contracts (less than 6 years).

 

Will he have the will to do so?  Questionable.  

 

But there is an argument for signing an elite pitcher now and that is that the revenues are available now.  If we wait another 2 or 3 years, management may be all tied up in trying to buy out or extend some of the up and comers.

[SwainZag]

I have absolutely no problem with the Twins going after an elite pitcher or for that matter, adding a stellar outfielder (preferably Spanish speaking).

 

I just think we have to be aware that while Target Field boosted the Twins' revenue, they still have the problem of the mediocre local TV revenues.  And, as someone pointed out above, Target Field revenues are likely to keep slipping.

 

Best way to increase revenue at TF?  Win.  Terry Ryan does have plenty to spend on short-to-mid-term contracts (less than 6 years).

 

Will he have the will to do so?  Questionable.  

 

But there is an argument for signing an elite pitcher now and that is that the revenues are available now.  If we wait another 2 or 3 years, management may be all tied up in trying to buy out or extend some of the up and comers.

 

Which would be a better dilemma to have in 2-3 years......having too much money tied up in a 34-36 year old SP to block extensions to some of the up and comers, or tie up money in extensions and unable to sign an ace pitcher/top FA at the time?   

[drjim]

While I don't actually know the Twins revenue situation, IMO the available evidence doesn't support the theory the Twins can't afford premium FAs.

 

Based on comp balance pick they earned this year, Twins are in the bottom half of revenues/market combination, somewhere in the 16-18 range. The franchises mentioned make more on their TV deals than the Twins do in all avenues combined. Technically the Twins can spend whatever they want, but if the biggest markets want a guy I don't think the Twins can responsibly hang. You can certainly think differently and ignore the basic revenue realities, but you are setting yourself up for a lifetime of disappointment.

[drjim]

If ever a time existed where the Twins could go out and get an elite starter, it would be right now.  Revenues are still high from the stadium and I think they will stay high with new talent coming up, which will hopefully propel more wins and interest.  More importantly, we are going to have a ton of rookie contracts, and a few arbitration contracts sprinkled into about $55-60M in veteran contracts (Mauer, Suzuki, Nolasco, Hughes, Pelfrey, and Perkins). 

 

I am not holding my breathe though.  I am really not sure that would be the best move anyway.  Teams like New York would be able to get through a blow of doling out a contact like that and having it blow up in their face.   If we go back 10-15 years, I can think of several terrible long and expensive pitching contracts.

 

Mike Hampton, Al Leiter, Barry Zito, and others. CC, Verlander, and Tanaka don't look good from here. 

 

My big worry after we paid Nolasco was that he would get hurt and that would somehow validate our hesitation towards them.....I think that deal will make us more cautious.

 

To the point of the article, the Twins only have one place to upgrade and counterpoint that we may lose 88 games so how could that possibly be?  I think while it sounds odd, the Twins do only have a few spots to upgrade via free agency because we have to hold CF, 3B, and an SP spot for prospects 1-3 who are not part of the 88 loss problem this year.

 

I do think SS is a spot we could upgrade, as I think Santana at SS = Pinto at catcher in the Twins eyes.

 

I also think Scherzer and Lester are going to get at least 7 years, which makes the window of when the can really spend a little trickier to navigate on the back end.

 

SS upgrades can be a little tricky.

[drjim]

I don't believe this is true.  The Twins aren't a low revenue team and they could have 2/3 of their starting lineup making <3M (most of them @500K) and several parts of their rotation and bullpen. 

 

If you look at the numbers the Twins have about 70ish M committed to fill out a roster and only 1 or 2 positions to spend it at.  There is a lot of money available even if they won't have a 150M payroll.

 

I expect them to stay somewhat conservative but that doesn't mean that they can't.

 

They aren't low, but they are a below the median revenue team. They can play with big time free agents, but not the biggest, especially if NY, Boston, LA are involved.

 

And yes they can fit it for the next handful of years, but we are taking at least 6, probably 7, and possibly 8 for the two guys you mentioned. They don't have the financial ability to easily eat that mistake if it turns out poorly on the back end.

[kab21]

In 3 years Nolasco will be a FA and Mauer will be a year away from FA.  If extensions are pushing the payroll through the roof then those multiple prospects or young players are turning into All-Stars. That is a problem that I would love to have.  Love, Love, Love.

[drjim]

I have absolutely no problem with the Twins going after an elite pitcher or for that matter, adding a stellar outfielder (preferably Spanish speaking).

 

I just think we have to be aware that while Target Field boosted the Twins' revenue, they still have the problem of the mediocre local TV revenues.  And, as someone pointed out above, Target Field revenues are likely to keep slipping.

 

Best way to increase revenue at TF?  Win.  Terry Ryan does have plenty to spend on short-to-mid-term contracts (less than 6 years).

 

Will he have the will to do so?  Questionable.  

 

But there is an argument for signing an elite pitcher now and that is that the revenues are available now.  If we wait another 2 or 3 years, management may be all tied up in trying to buy out or extend some of the up and comers.

 

I certainly agree with this take.

 

I think the key is that Ryan can go big this offseason, he just can't go Scherzer or Lester big. It would be pretty uninspiring if he patched with a couple of low level guys. I'm not impressed with the LF options, but there are a couple of pitchers worth considering.

 

Scherzer turned down a 6/144 offer, I bet he gets at least 7/175, maybe 8/200. That is a lot of cheese for a mid-market revenue team to invest in one pitcher.

[Oxtung]

Which would be a better dilemma to have in 2-3 years......having too much money tied up in a 34-36 year old SP to block extensions to some of the up and comers, or tie up money in extensions and unable to sign an ace pitcher/top FA at the time?   

That's the beauty of it.  If they signed a top pitcher now that contract would be coming off the books just as Sano, Meyer, Buxton, Berrios, etc... hit free agency.  And bonus, if they front loaded that contract there might be money to bring another FA into the fold years from now.  On the other hand if they wait any longer to sign a big contract there will be some tough decisions to make down the road.  

[westvanson]

I alwasy knew Jordan Schafer was the problem!

[JB_Iowa]

That's the beauty of it.  If they signed a top pitcher now that contract would be coming off the books just as Sano, Meyer, Buxton, Berrios, etc... hit free agency.  And bonus, if they front loaded that contract there might be money to bring another FA into the fold years from now.  On the other hand if they wait any longer to sign a big contract there will be some tough decisions to make down the road.  

 

Bingo and that's what I meant when I said keep it at 6 years or less.  The Twins are in the enviable position of having flexibility.

 

And, since I, for one, take them at their word that they don't carry monies forward, they should spend some of it now.

[Oxtung]

 

 

It doesn't matter how much money the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers or anyone else has to throw around.  They aren't going to pay a guy $50 million per year or even $30 million per year.  As long as the Twins have ~$25 million per year for the next 6-7 years available they can go get their guy, from a financial perspective at least.  It just comes down to this, is Ryan willing to bet big and push the contract to a state that the Yankees, Red Sox, et al feel uncomfortable or unwilling to go.

 

Currently the Twins are on the books for about ~$83 million dollars next season (assuming he keeps the Arbitration guys).  Will Ryan feel comfortable pushing the payroll towards $110 million?  I doubt it but I don't know. 

[Mike Sixel]

Actually, once we got past the first post, I was good with the conversation. Sorry if the community was not......

 

If they have 70MM under contract, I bet they could fit another 20MM in easy......if not, they are doing something wrong. So, go buy the best pitcher, imo. In three years, Mauer's money is gone, and it doesn't look like there are any superstars needing money in the next 2-4 years.....

[Linus]

They need a quality starter much more than a left fielder (although they could use on of those as well).  Having said that, we have enough quantity, we need quality.  If we can't add a guy that is as good or better than Hughes, then don't bother.  If we were able to add somebody of that caliber, I think this team could be better than many people think (plus 500).

 

As far as left field goes, get Rajai Davis for one or two years.  He's acceptable, can play center or left and, while not a great hitter, has some speed and defensive that would be an improvement.

 

No longer interested in seeing Parms out there.  I wanted him to get his ABs so we could find out what we have and now we know.

[drjim]

It doesn't matter how much money the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers or anyone else has to throw around.  They aren't going to pay a guy $50 million per year or even $30 million per year.  As long as the Twins have ~$25 million per year for the next 6-7 years available they can go get their guy, from a financial perspective at least.  It just comes down to this, is Ryan willing to bet big and push the contract to a state that the Yankees, Red Sox, et al feel uncomfortable or unwilling to go.

 

Currently the Twins are on the books for about ~$83 million dollars next season (assuming he keeps the Arbitration guys).  Will Ryan feel comfortable pushing the payroll towards $110 million?  I doubt it but I don't know. 

 

I suspect concern about the total payroll is immaterial as long as it approved by ownership. What probably makes Ryan uncomfortable is having over 40% of the payroll locked up in two players and going over 4 (or possibly 5) years for a pitcher.

[drjim]

They need a quality starter much more than a left fielder (although they could use on of those as well).  Having said that, we have enough quantity, we need quality.  If we can't add a guy that is as good or better than Hughes, then don't bother.  If we were able to add somebody of that caliber, I think this team could be better than many people think (plus 500).

 

As far as left field goes, get Rajai Davis for one or two years.  He's acceptable, can play center or left and, while not a great hitter, has some speed and defensive that would be an improvement.

 

No longer interested in seeing Parms out there.  I wanted him to get his ABs so we could find out what we have and now we know.

 

Davis is under contract for next year.

[bird]

You also can't claim the Twins have an amazing, deep farm system loaded with talent and simultaneously claim that same system has little trade value.

Yes you can. The rankings of farm systems is a relative ranking, right? So why can't you say they have an amazingly deep system with plenty of high-end talent and simultaneously claim that individual players within that system, even top 100 talents like Rosario, have limited ( probably a better word than little) trade value?

[Linus]

Davis is under contract for next year.

I guess that would be a problem......thought he signed a one year deal.

[Willihammer]

Only Mauer and Nolasco are long term commitments. There is a financial window right now to make a big move. W-L or even position should not be a concern at all IMO

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

That's the beauty of it.  If they signed a top pitcher now that contract would be coming off the books just as Sano, Meyer, Buxton, Berrios, etc... hit free agency.  And bonus, if they front loaded that contract there might be money to bring another FA into the fold years from now.  On the other hand if they wait any longer to sign a big contract there will be some tough decisions to make down the road.

 

It's also the downside. If they sign that contract now, you might be wishing 4 years from now that it was never signed.

[tobi0040]

I also think Scherzer and Lester are going to get at least 7 years, which makes the window of when the can really spend a little trickier to navigate on the back end.

 

SS upgrades can be a little tricky.

 

I don't buy the 7 year issue.  Mauer is done in what, 3 years?  So a deal for Lester or Scherzer would basically replace that one, maybe a few million more.  Meyer, Buxton and Sano would be under control for 5-6 years, starting in 0-1 year (hopefully they will be extended but it likely won't be much more than arbitration/rookie money) .  Dozier is not going to get a $15M dollar deal.    At that point we would have younger guys making less, like hopefully Berrios, Thorpe, Kohl, Gordon, etc.  And we are not even factoring in revenues will go up in the next 7 years.

 

I am not saying we will do it.  I have watched this team too long to get my hopes up.  But we could if we wanted to.    If the Tigers can go up to $170M or whatever, we should be able to go up to $100M

Edited August 28, 2014 by tobi0040

[tobi0040]

 

 

It's also the downside. If they sign that contract now, you might be wishing 4 years from now that it was never signed.

 

The flip side is you never put your chips in the middle, therefore you never win a hand.

[bird]

Yea, I figured someone would say this and the usual suspect(s) would like it.

 

Based on comp balance pick they earned this year, Twins are in the bottom half of revenues/market combination, somewhere in the 16-18 range. The franchises mentioned make more on their TV deals than the Twins do in all avenues combined. Technically the Twins can spend whatever they want, but if the biggest markets want a guy I don't think the Twins can responsibly hang. You can certainly think differently and ignore the basic revenue realities, but you are setting yourself up for a lifetime of disappointment.

 

In fairness, I think one can state that the evidence supports the financial capacity is there to sign elite FA's, and I think there is logic to support that the Twins would be taking on a greater burden of risk (future "financial flexibility") than these richer teams.

 

We 'll have all winter to hear the arguments and complaints and conjecture, but I'll throw my two cents out there now about why the Twins are unlikely to sign Scherzer or Lester . The first penny is that Ryan will decide whatever the winning bidder is paying is way to much for what they're going to get. The second reason is that Ryan will decide he can find what the Twins need elsewhere at an acceptable level of risk. He'll be satisfied with a pitcher who they see as a likely #2-3 starter, because they think they can fare well without a #1-2 starter as long as they have four guys they see as #2-3 starters in this league. Just my theory here.

[tobi0040]

In fairness, I think one can state that the evidence supports the financial capacity is there to sign elite FA's, and I think there is logic to support that the Twins would be taking on a greater burden of risk (future "financial flexibility") than these richer teams.

 

We 'll have all winter to hear the arguments and complaints and conjecture, but I'll throw my two dents out there now about why the Twins are unlikely to sign Scherzer or Lester . The first penny is that Ryan will decide whatever the winning bidder is paying way to much for what they're going to get. The second reason is that Ryan will decide he can find what the Twins need elsewhere at an acceptable level of risk. He'll be satisfied with a pitcher who they see as a likely #2-3 starter, because they think they can fare well without a #1-2 starter as long as they have four guys they see as #2-3 starters in this league. Just my theory here.

 

 

I agree with the what will happen, 100%.  But I don't buy the we can't afford it game.  We could sign either one and have a payroll still less than it was in 2010. 

 

We all would likely agree that Terry will never feel like he got a deal by signing a #1 in free agency and it will be a risk level he is uncomfortable with.  Good summary.

[Kwak]

I've been away for awhile.  When I read the premise of this article I had to double-check I was on a Twins site.  Gosh, this team is on track to lose 90+ again and there is only one open position?  I would need the rosiest rose-colored glasses or be on the Twins payroll to think that this collection will improve so dramatically without a major influx of talent.  I'm sorry I can't find even one postion that couldn't be improved. 

 

But reality must be observed.  Concentrate resources (money and prospects) to obtain one superior player irrespective of position.  Others can be moved as necessary to "fit" said player.  If a second can be obtained--by all means!  Don't be blinded by short-term contract flexibility.  Superior talent is always in style.

[tobi0040]

I've been away for awhile.  When I read the premise of this article I had to double-check I was on a Twins site.  Gosh, this team is on track to lose 90+ again and there is only one open position?  I would need the rosiest rose-colored glasses or be on the Twins payroll to think that this collection will improve so dramatically without a major influx of talent.  I'm sorry I can't find even one postion that couldn't be improved. 

 

 

That sounds overly negative to me.  That one player will have a WAR of 25 and get us to where we need to be.

[ashbury]

The flip side is you never put your chips in the middle, therefore you never win a hand.

A product manager who influenced me many years ago assured me that successful business people do not use gambling metaphors for their decision making process.

[Kelly Vance]

If the Twins sign Yasmani Tomas and one Lester/Scherzer/Shields, I'll buy season tickets.

Ahhh There's the rub. They can languish and watch revenue drop, or use the fact that they have cash and go get a #1 starter.  That equates to season tix renewals and at least a plus 12 - 15 game rise in the standings. Making a 75 win season possibly into a 90 win season. And a leader in the rotation makes everyone else better as well. In other words, they need to find a Jack Morris type FA. They are rare but out there.  I like Lester or Max. They will come at retail prices, but you get what you pay for.Price is high retail. 

[tobi0040]

A product manager who influenced me many years ago assured me that successful business people do not use gambling metaphors for their decision making process.

 

Here is a sports metaphor.  The best players cost the most money.  The best players help win games. Therefore, spending money can assist in winning games.

Edited August 28, 2014 by tobi0040