Article: Only One Spot to Address for 2015?

[USAFChief]

You also can't claim the Twins have an amazing, deep farm system loaded with talent and simultaneously claim that same system has little trade value.

[Mike Sixel]

I have nothing to compare to then.  How do I compare a guy who only had 50 AB in one season?  Most players who have less than 3 years in the majors are generally role players who have little statistics to compare anyways. If you want to say that most players who get a shot at the big leagues have less than a 3 year career then OK, but I think that's a different study. Your statement was: 

 

"but we forget that many/most rookies don't actually get better, they are who they will become"

 

and I'm using major leaguers who have a career do generally show that they generally do in fact get better.  

 

Then we aren't talking about the same thing. I'm talking about every rookie that plays, you are not. So, I guess we can stop disagreeing. 

[drjim]

You also can't claim the Twins have an amazing, deep farm system loaded with talent and simultaneously claim that same system has little trade value.

 

Actually you can. That is how farm systems work. It shows why people can't trade (EDIT: I should clarify, can't trade solely prospects to get multiple great players) for multiple great players or why established guys with more than two years of control rarely get traded (EDIT: for just prospects). I was also responding to the very specific guys that were mentioned.

 

The Twins have four guys with a lot of value, a second tier that will be ranked high but not have a ton of value now because they are too far away, and then depth guys. Each of those tiers have value in some sense, but depth guys (who everyone wants to trade) just don't bring back as much as we think they will. They get guys for a year, maybe two.

Edited August 27, 2014 by drjim

[tobi0040]

Actually you can. That is how farm systems work. It shows why people can't trade (EDIT: I should clarify, can't trade solely prospects to get multiple great players) for multiple great players or why established guys with more than two years of control rarely get traded. I was also responding to the very specific guys that were mentioned.

 

The Twins have four guys with a lot of value, a second tier that will be ranked high but not have a ton of value now because they are too far away, and then depth guys. Each of those tiers have value in some sense, but depth guys (who everyone wants to trade) just don't bring back as much as we think they will. They get guys for a year.

 

I think it just needs to be qualified, fans want an MLB ready upgrade at SP or LF, without giving up Buxton, Sano, Meyer, Kohl, etc.  That is likely not happening unless it is a salary dump or something like that.

Edited August 27, 2014 by tobi0040

[drjim]

I think it just needs to be qualified, fans want an MLB ready upgrade at SP or LF, without giving up Buxton, Sano, Meyer, Kohl, etc.  That is likely not happening unless it is a salary dump or something like that.

 

Thanks for clarifying, this states it better. The Twins can certainly get a pretty good  (non salary dump) player if they give up one of the guys you mentioned.

 

The guys that have been mentioned (ie Rosario/Benson) aren't going to bring much back, certainly not a "good" player, unless you have a pretty liberal definition of what that means.

[Mike Sixel]

That's all fair......thanks for the polite clarification tobi.

[Platoon]

The only thing I would "buy" is a very good SP! Adding a Hunter for two years to play LF does not make this a better team long term. And history shows that once signed, especially if Gardy remains, means he is here for two years! Good or bad. See Willingham. If you truly want the fastest progression then you have to throw the new guys out there, and move forth. It is not going to be instant success, but dribbling them in one at a time just drags out the process. Plus it will be entertaining. Please do not get stuck in the middle adding worn out old veterans, taking up playing time. We just got done doing that!

[diehardtwinsfan]

Note that I am not in favor of trading prospects right now. At least not the very top, clearly. That said, redundancy could be a factor, and that is why I mention Rosario, Harrison, T. Jones, and Duffey.

The problem is that these guys won't get you much. They could all end up being very nice pieces too, but right now, you won't find a difference making piece for one of these guys, which is why I agree with you that I'm not in favor of trading these guys right now

[DocBauer]

Back to the original point of the thread...now that I'm home, off work, and can actually read and respond...I want to say that I'm in almost complete agreement with the original points of Nick's thread.

 

Let me clarify my opinion, and I believe Nick's as well; it's NOT that the Twins are SET at all positions, but rather, simply, there is a solid player/prospect currently in place and/or available at almost all positions that making a major move to acquire a replacement, especially with some top talent on the way, simply doesn't make sense.

 

Suzuki, Mauer, Dozier, Arcia are set. Vargas is an impressive talent with a potentially big future and looks very good so far. That's 5 spots there. And I know there is debate about Suzuki, and hope Pinto will mature in to the starting spot, and I hope it happens as well, but Suzuki is solid, signed, and it would take a major move to aquire someone "better" to replace him. Plouffe has now developed in to anywhere from solid to good to maybe better than good defensively, depending on how you feel about him. Currently, he ranks 1st amongst all 3B in doubles, 7th in RBI, and 13th in OPS. That's a solid 3B folks, any way you slice it. I'm not saying he will or will not become even better...but...he is still only 27, and has worked hard to improve himself, and HAS improved continuously.

 

SS and CF are a bit in flux, true. But with Escobar, Santana, and possibly Hicks if his new-found milb confidence and production can carry over even somewhat. Buxton, of course, is the future at CF. Santana, Hicks and possibly Rosario could prove to be short term options until then. And I am NOT against a FA signing for a short term option there. However...there are options there for the now.

 

Really, that leaves LF as the one spot where the team can add someone to further deepen the lineup, take some pressure off of the young Arcia and Vargas, and hopefully provide quality defense as well.

[DocBauer]

As to the rotation, I maintain we have a solid threesome to build around for 2015. I'm not saying the team has an ace, but then again, aces are pretty tough to come by. We have May, Meyer, Milone and Pelfrey available to round things out. They also have a couple 6-7 SP types to fill in if necessary. Of course, Berrios may be ready at some point in 2015 as well. So is it prudent to bring in another FA signee on a guaranteed contract to leave only 1 spot for our young pitchers to fight for?

 

I'm not saying I'm opposed to doing so, only saying for a rebuilding team with young pitching talent, is this a move that should be made?

 

I'd be kind of surprised if we made such a move, but then again, the Twins did make a big attempt to sign Garza even after signing Hughes and Nolasco last off season.

[Thrylos]

Yes, exactly. I would like the following to happen: the Twins refrain from spending big this offseason unless it is on one of the top 5 pitching free agents. So, no spending to replace LF. Wait and save. That means that money should be SAVED now in order to be spent when NEEDED when the team is competitive for real. Just finally, finally, go with the youth movement.

 

2015 opening day roster barring trades and injuries but dealing/releasing where noted (and I don't care about my consistency over the past month!):

 

C: Suzuki, Pinto, Herrmann

1B: Mauer, Vargas

2B: Dozier (Escobar, Santana, Beresford)

SS: Escobar (Santana, Beresford)

3B: Plouffe (Escobar, Beresford)

LF: Hicks (yes, Hicks), (Ortiz, Herrmann)

CF: Santana (until Buxton, then decisions need to be made), (Hicks)

RF: Arcia (Ortiz, Herrmann, Hicks)

DH: Vargas, (Pinto)

 

Bench (generally): Pinto, Herrmann, Beresford, Ortiz

 

Yep. Gone from this are Parmelee, Nunez, and Schafer. Trade for C level prospects who are under 22 and that is a win. All three of those guys could serve as major league bench players, but not for the Twins now.

 

Starting rotation:

 

Hughes

Gibson

Nolasco

Meyer (or Milone)

May (or Milone)

 

Bullpen:

 

I still would like some trading to be done as there is just no reason to pay Swarzak and Duensing any more money, for instance. Also, I am surprised Fien wasn't dealt, but for these purposes we will keep him.

 

Perkins

Fien

C. Johnson

Oliveros

Tonkin

Thielbar

Deduno/Darnell/K. Johnson

 

I also think Guerra and Achter could compete here. The big question is going to be: when do Burdi and Z. Jones arrive? Those two will serve as dominant setup men (and there needs to be another dominant lefty somewhere).

 

 

 

Yes, exactly. I would like the following to happen: the Twins refrain from spending big this offseason unless it is on one of the top 5 pitching free agents. So, no spending to replace LF. Wait and save. That means that money should be SAVED now in order to be spent when NEEDED when the team is competitive for real. Just finally, finally, go with the youth movement.

 

2015 opening day roster barring trades and injuries but dealing/releasing where noted (and I don't care about my consistency over the past month!):

 

C: Suzuki, Pinto, Herrmann

1B: Mauer, Vargas

2B: Dozier (Escobar, Santana, Beresford)

SS: Escobar (Santana, Beresford)

3B: Plouffe (Escobar, Beresford)

LF: Hicks (yes, Hicks), (Ortiz, Herrmann)

CF: Santana (until Buxton, then decisions need to be made), (Hicks)

RF: Arcia (Ortiz, Herrmann, Hicks)

DH: Vargas, (Pinto)

 

Bench (generally): Pinto, Herrmann, Beresford, Ortiz

 

Yep. Gone from this are Parmelee, Nunez, and Schafer. Trade for C level prospects who are under 22 and that is a win. All three of those guys could serve as major league bench players, but not for the Twins now.

 

Starting rotation:

 

Hughes

Gibson

Nolasco

Meyer (or Milone)

May (or Milone)

 

Bullpen:

 

I still would like some trading to be done as there is just no reason to pay Swarzak and Duensing any more money, for instance. Also, I am surprised Fien wasn't dealt, but for these purposes we will keep him.

 

Perkins

Fien

C. Johnson

Oliveros

Tonkin

Thielbar

Deduno/Darnell/K. Johnson

 

I also think Guerra and Achter could compete here. The big question is going to be: when do Burdi and Z. Jones arrive? Those two will serve as dominant setup men (and there needs to be another dominant lefty somewhere).

 

 

 

I hope that Sano starts at 3B next season, btw...

 

And, this season looks like about 91-92 losses.  Will this lineup get them to 70 losses?  If not, things need to be re-written.

 

And, yes, lots of changes need to be made to compete (and lots of them non-player)  but just a few changes maybe to go from horrible to bad.

 

Depends what the goal is here...

[DocBauer]

And, except for Chief, we still aren't talking about the elephant in the room ....

 

Does the management staff stay intact?  Especially on field?

 

To me, a new field manager and (some of his) lieutenants are a big need.  And as of a month ago, there seemed to be a fair amount of agreement on that in certain parts of Twins Territory.

 

Have we just resigned ourselves to at least one more year of Ronnie & crew?

 

Good or bad, right or wrong, I'm going to beat a dead horse and repeat that someone needs to be re-assigned so that a quality Latino coach can be brought on board to help better relate to the influx of Latin players such as Arcia, Vargas, Santana, Pino and others on the way. Preferably someone who can help preach a quality approach at the plate for more overall discipline to reach potential.

[DocBauer]

I also agree that some of the pen is back, and fairly solid with Perkins, Fien, Thielbar, and possibly Duensing. I get the feeling Darnell could be a nice LH option in the pen. There are a couple other LH options that could also compete, at least until Melotakis is ready. He could be one to pay real attention to in the AFL.

 

I'm really torn from the RH side. I don't buy that Jones or Burdi are going to be ready any sooner than mid-season. Part of me really wants to Twins to sign a quality RH setup man to team with Fien, then throw the door open to Pressly, Tonkin, Achter, Oliveras, Swarzak, Deduno, Pino and others. Another part of me wants to not sign anyone...not sure if that's prudent or not...and throw the door open to all of them.

[cmb0252]

Maybe I'm in the minority here in the fact I wouldn't be upset if they packaged Meyer or Berrios in a deal for a prove upgrade. Either way it doesn't matter. In the end I'm guessing outside of a few cheap place holders the team will look the exact same. It is sad too because this will be the first off season in years that I actually think they could get significantly better. Maybe that is just me.

 

Either way I can't wait for the draft!

[kab21]

Maybe I'm in the minority here in the fact I wouldn't be upset if they packaged Meyer or Berrios in a deal for a prove upgrade. Either way it doesn't matter. In the end I'm guessing outside of a few cheap place holders the team will look the exact same. It is sad too because this will be the first off season in years that I actually think they could get significantly better. Maybe that is just me.

 

Either way I can't wait for the draft!

 

I think prospects are an overvalued currency to some extent but I don't see how this helps.  The kind of deals that typically happen with prospects are for guys with 2 years before FA (Samardzija for example).  This is not the right time for that kind of deal.  That is not the window for the team.  However signing a Lester/Scherzer only cost money.  And the Twins have money to spend.  A lot of it. 

 

I find it ironic that a season ticket holder made the argument that the Twins are going to lose a lot of revenue (fewer season tickets) because of how poor the team has been so they shouldn't sign an ace that instantly gives their rotation credibility and shortens the rebuilding window.  Hughes//Gibson/Nolasco? is a solid rotation but a Scherzer/Hughes/Gibson is really nice. 

[drjim]

I think prospects are an overvalued currency to some extent but I don't see how this helps. The kind of deals that typically happen with prospects are for guys with 2 years before FA (Samardzija for example). This is not the right time for that kind of deal. That is not the window for the team. However signing a Lester/Scherzer only cost money. And the Twins have money to spend. A lot of it.

 

I find it ironic that a season ticket holder made the argument that the Twins are going to lose a lot of revenue (fewer season tickets) because of how poor the team has been so they shouldn't sign an ace that instantly gives their rotation credibility and shortens the rebuilding window. Hughes//Gibson/Nolasco? is a solid rotation but a Scherzer/Hughes/Gibson is really nice.

You should stop this. Scherzer is going to Boston, New York or LA. The Twins have money, but not nearly as much as those franchises.

 

Plenty to criticize Ryan about, but getting outbid by them really shouldn't be one of them.

[jokin]

Good or bad, right or wrong, I'm going to beat a dead horse and repeat that someone needs to be re-assigned so that a quality Latino coach can be brought on board to help better relate to the influx of Latin players such as Arcia, Vargas, Santana, Pino and others on the way. Preferably someone who can help preach a quality approach at the plate for more overall discipline to reach potential.

 

 

Here, here, Doc... I too, have been clamoring for hiring a veteran Latin hitting coach for years- and whoever has been coaching Vargas' approach, Latin or Anglo, deserves mention in terms of Kennys' quality approach.  But based on this evening's Gardy post-game presser, he and his lieutenants are having a hard enough time communicating and relating better with the Anglo 2nd baseman on precisely when and how to move closer in to the infield during a shift and with a runner on 2nd base (according to Gardy, tonight's occurrence in the 8th inning was the second time it's happened with the player in question, and he was obviously frustrated that his directions weren't being followed properly).

[kab21]

You should stop this. Scherzer is going to Boston, New York or LA. The Twins have money, but not nearly as much as those franchises.

 

Plenty to criticize Ryan about, but getting outbid by them really shouldn't be one of them.

 

I don't think Ryan will pursue this route because it's unRyanlike but there are people on here that are making an argument that the Twins shouldn't even look at pitching because we need to make sure that Milone and May have a clear path to the rotation.  The rotation is not fine.  Players like these are better kept as plan B/C instead of the AAAA cannon fodder that we have seen in the past and are likely to see more of.

[DocBauer]

I don't think Ryan will pursue this route because it's unRyanlike but there are people on here that are making an argument that the Twins shouldn't even look at pitching because we need to make sure that Milone and May have a clear path to the rotation.  The rotation is not fine.  Players like these are better kept as plan B/C instead of the AAAA cannon fodder that we have seen in the past and are likely to see more of.

No, the rotation is not "fine".

 

(Bullsh*t! Hair is "fine")...brought to you by George Carlin in attempt at humor and brevity.

 

Nobody has claimed we have an all star starting staff immediately. The question/concern is to whether in the long term, perhaps short term as well, committing a high salary 3-4 year contract is a wise and prudent move when you already have 2 solid options in place, 2-3 top prospects either ready or nearly ready sometime in 2015?

[cmb0252]

I think prospects are an overvalued currency to some extent but I don't see how this helps.  The kind of deals that typically happen with prospects are for guys with 2 years before FA (Samardzija for example).  This is not the right time for that kind of deal.  That is not the window for the team.  However signing a Lester/Scherzer only cost money.  And the Twins have money to spend.  A lot of it. 

 

I find it ironic that a season ticket holder made the argument that the Twins are going to lose a lot of revenue (fewer season tickets) because of how poor the team has been so they shouldn't sign an ace that instantly gives their rotation credibility and shortens the rebuilding window.  Hughes//Gibson/Nolasco? is a solid rotation but a Scherzer/Hughes/Gibson is really nice.

 

Oh I totally agree with you that I rather the Twins just sign a big name SPer than trade valuable assists for one but that is (surprisingly) less probable then them actually trading for one. What I was saying is I would be open for a prospect for proven player trade which I wasn't open to say, this time last year. I wouldn't mind exploring a Latos trade if rumors were accurate that he was on the block.

 

Once again, they won't sign a big time starter or trade for one so both are points are mute.

[glunn]

Moderator note -- I just deleted about 5 posts from this thread.

 

The problem began when one poster characterized another poster's opinion as "a lie".  That was a clear violation of TD policy and that poster has been issued an infraction point.

 

I also deleted related posts, because they were part of a digression from the baseball discussion.

 

I appreciate everyone's passion here, but people need to remember that we all have the same dream -- a winning team.  We may disagree about how to get there, but we share a common mania.

 

TD is a place for RESPECTFUL discussion.  All posters must give respect to fellow Twins fans, even when they feel that the other person is clearly wrong.  Feel free to disagree and debate, but make the effort to to follow our policy, which can be found in the TwinsCentric forum.

[drjim]

I don't think Ryan will pursue this route because it's unRyanlike but there are people on here that are making an argument that the Twins shouldn't even look at pitching because we need to make sure that Milone and May have a clear path to the rotation.  The rotation is not fine.  Players like these are better kept as plan B/C instead of the AAAA cannon fodder that we have seen in the past and are likely to see more of.

 

I certainly agree with this and want the Twins to go big on a pitcher. It just won't be Scherzer or Lester, because the Twins revenue situation doesn't really allow them to outbid NY, Bos, LA for the premium free agent that those franchises covet.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/436001-sophomore-slump-truth-or-cliche

This article found 56% of sophmores have "similar" stats in year two as rookie year, 22% improved, 22% slumped

I suspect this isn't your conclusion goulik (I'm addressing conclusions being made off of the stats you posted here), but I think the idea that comparing a guy's year 1 stats to a year 2 stat and then saying "most guys don't improve after their rookie season" isn't a good way to look at things.

 

I suspect improvement is a fuction of age and skill, and the guys who have been in the majors for a decent amount of time have careers that typically resemble a bell curve of sorts. I have a tough time believing that a guy will do what he does as rookie and then never get better. There may be some truth to that with a 28 year old guy breaking into the league for the first time, but even that is questoinable. Guys like Dozier show that it takes time. It's pretty easy to point to examples like Mauer, Morneau, Gomez, etc. who broke in much younger and got better as they aged. In a nut shell, context is a big deal and managing a team based on broad generalizations such as this one is not a good way to manage a team.

[USAFChief]

I certainly agree with this and want the Twins to go big on a pitcher. It just won't be Scherzer or Lester, because the Twins revenue situation doesn't really allow them to outbid NY, Bos, LA for the premium free agent that those franchises covet.

While I don't actually know the Twins revenue situation, IMO the available evidence doesn't support the theory the Twins can't afford premium FAs.

[alskntwnsfn]

I think gunnarthor has the best point of all - regardless of the quality of players we have, there just isn't a whole lot out there in the FA market for either pitching or hitting. Nelson Cruz is about it for someone who could be a longer term solution in LF or Rasmus, Melky Cabrerra, Rajai Davis or Cuddyer on a  short term deal. There are a couple of high level pitchers that will be out of the Twins price range and not a lot of B level quality. The best thing to do is leave the lineup the way it is, except hope that HIcks could actually stick as a LF.  

 

By the way, has anyone heard who the PTBNL is in the Correia trade? I know I'm dreaming but I'm hoping there's a chance it will be Scott Van Slyke or that we can sweeten the pot to get him.  He's 28, a solid right handed hitter with power and actually a pretty good defensive outfielder.  He'll never get the chance to play in LA with the 4 OFs they have and he might be a good get for LF - hit 5th and move everybody down one.

 

Scott Van Slyke would be awesome. He is a great hitter. I hope TR has at least inquired. 

[tobi0040]

While I don't actually know the Twins revenue situation, IMO the available evidence doesn't support the theory the Twins can't afford premium FAs.

 

If ever a time existed where the Twins could go out and get an elite starter, it would be right now.  Revenues are still high from the stadium and I think they will stay high with new talent coming up, which will hopefully propel more wins and interest.  More importantly, we are going to have a ton of rookie contracts, and a few arbitration contracts sprinkled into about $55-60M in veteran contracts (Mauer, Suzuki, Nolasco, Hughes, Pelfrey, and Perkins). 

 

I am not holding my breathe though.  I am really not sure that would be the best move anyway.  Teams like New York would be able to get through a blow of doling out a contact like that and having it blow up in their face.   If we go back 10-15 years, I can think of several terrible long and expensive pitching contracts.

 

Mike Hampton, Al Leiter, Barry Zito, and others. CC, Verlander, and Tanaka don't look good from here. 

 

My big worry after we paid Nolasco was that he would get hurt and that would somehow validate our hesitation towards them.....I think that deal will make us more cautious.

 

To the point of the article, the Twins only have one place to upgrade and counterpoint that we may lose 88 games so how could that possibly be?  I think while it sounds odd, the Twins do only have a few spots to upgrade via free agency because we have to hold CF, 3B, and an SP spot for prospects 1-3 who are not part of the 88 loss problem this year.

 

I do think SS is a spot we could upgrade, as I think Santana at SS = Pinto at catcher in the Twins eyes.

Edited August 28, 2014 by tobi0040

[kab21]

I certainly agree with this and want the Twins to go big on a pitcher. It just won't be Scherzer or Lester, because the Twins revenue situation doesn't really allow them to outbid NY, Bos, LA for the premium free agent that those franchises covet.

 

I don't believe this is true.  The Twins aren't a low revenue team and they could have 2/3 of their starting lineup making <3M (most of them @500K) and several parts of their rotation and bullpen. 

 

If you look at the numbers the Twins have about 70ish M committed to fill out a roster and only 1 or 2 positions to spend it at.  There is a lot of money available even if they won't have a 150M payroll.

 

I expect them to stay somewhat conservative but that doesn't mean that they can't.

[JB_Iowa]

 The Twins aren't a low revenue team 

 

How do you define low revenue?

 

I believe that the Twins did get revenue sharing this year.  While that doesn't make them "low revenue", it is a concern.

 

Major problem is the TV deal ... it just doesn't seem commensurate with what other teams are getting.

 

I don't think the Twins are low revenue ..... but I also don't think it is as "rosy" as many of us thought 4 years ago.

[SwainZag]

Moderator note -- I just deleted about 5 posts from this thread.

 

The problem began when one poster characterized another poster's opinion as "a lie".  That was a clear violation of TD policy and that poster has been issued an infraction point.

 

I also deleted related posts, because they were part of a digression from the baseball discussion.

 

I appreciate everyone's passion here, but people need to remember that we all have the same dream -- a winning team.  We may disagree about how to get there, but we share a common mania.

 

TD is a place for RESPECTFUL discussion.  All posters must give respect to fellow Twins fans, even when they feel that the other person is clearly wrong.  Feel free to disagree and debate, but make the effort to to follow our policy, which can be found in the TwinsCentric forum.

This was my fault and I apologize to mike for it.  Won't happen again. 

[kab21]

How do you define low revenue?

 

I believe that the Twins did get revenue sharing this year.  While that doesn't make them "low revenue", it is a concern.

 

Major problem is the TV deal ... it just doesn't seem commensurate with what other teams are getting.

 

I don't think the Twins are low revenue ..... but I also don't think it is as "rosy" as many of us thought 4 years ago.

 

Things are not as rosy because the Twins will have lost 90-100 games for 4 straight years.  One way to grow revenues (or keep them from sliding) is to field a better team by investing in it like you would a business. 

 

It was tough to make an argument 2-3 years ago to go after big name FA's since there was nothing resembling a core and most of the prospects were 3+ years away.  Now there is a core developing with multiple top prospects ready to be called up.  It's pretty reasonable to think that an elite player would still be in his prime during a Twins playoff run if the Twins ante'd up this offseason or next even if they weren't immediately contenders.