Article: Only One Spot to Address for 2015?

[TheDean]

I really don't like WAR but I'm going to use fWAR for a quick second to see how the Twins are per position in the AL.  The second number is just OPS, non-adjusted.

 

C - 8/15 (WAR) and 5/15 (OPS).  Suzuki has been solid but Fryar and Pinto have been useless.

1B - 13/15 and 13/15.  This is the one spot I think they Twins can expect a big rebound with a healthy Mauer and less Colabello and Parm.

2B - 5/15 and 3/15. Dozier is a legit second baseman on a playoff team.

3B - 5/15 and 9/15.  I was surprised.  Weak year for offense hides the fact that Plouffe's been pretty good overall.  I still don't trust Plouffe but Sano should be here soon enough.

SS - 1/15 and 5/15.  And here I was stunned but they are double counting Santana for WAR.  Just Escobar and it's closer to 7 out of 15.  Still, pretty good year for our short stops.

LF - 12/15 and 11/15.

CF - 6/15 and 5/15.  Fangraphs loved Fuld for WAR and Santana's obviously been good.  

RF - 14/15 and 9/15.  Pulled down by the double counting of Parm and Colabello for WAR but Arcia isn't a good defender yet.

DH - 9/15 and 5/15.  A bit surprised that OPS liked the Twins DH's so much.

 

So ... Nick has a point.  While RF hasn't been great, Arcia should get the vast majority of AB next year, even if his defense is down.  Vargas should get 600 PA too.  The big questions is regression for guys like Escobar, Santana, Suzuki and Plouffe.  

 

The Twins could bring in a guy like Nelson Cruz on a 3 year deal.  Or Nick Markakis.  But there isn't a lot else out there in the FA bin.  Maybe Colby Rasmus accepts a one year deal to fix his stock.  But a lot of guys - Hicks, Arcia, Vargas, Santana, Pinto, Escobar just need to play to see what we have while Buxton and Sano are in AAA.

 

I like the premise of the analysis, but I prefer wRC+ (or OPS+) just because it bumps the Twins up at just about every position about one or two spots since it accounts for Target Field (or lack of Yankee Stadium when comparing to AL East). Just my opinion.

 

I agree that DH number is way too high, but it may be that it doesn't account for Morales?  The Twins sit back at 10th when I look at the wRC+ ranking for DH.

 

I also wanted to opine that Arcia passes as league average (or maybe just a little under) both in eye test and UZR.  Granted, that's compared against other RFs.  Can't ignore that he has the #4 ARM rating in the AL (behind Bautista, Markakis, and Aoki).

[USAFChief]

I feel like I read this exact article last fall.

 

IMO there is little chance the Twins are a competitive team in 2015 if they do little to improve this winter. And I'm not in favor of sitting around through more losing seasons waiting for the minor leagues to provide all the talent this team needs to be a 90+ win team again.

 

There's almost no chance Sano or Buxton are productive major leaguers next year, and not a whole lot more hope foe Meyer, IMO...and that's provided they even make the big leagues. Meyer can't even crack the 25 man on THIS team.

[iTwins]

One spot to address via a major acquisition? Probably accurate. But, I certainly hope they address a lot more than one thing.

 

I'd like to see the Twins add depth this offseason. While Santana looks primed to take over CF or SS, Escobar could fill the utlity role and Vargas could be the regular DH for years to come - I'd like it if the Twins didn't simply assume that they're all going to contribute at their current levels perpetually.

 

Persue a free agent LF (or a LF via trade). They don't necessarily have to be the big powerful bat - in fact a guy who can cover CF in a pinch would be just fine with me. But don't stop at LF and figure "Well, the rookies will carry the rest of the load". Injuries happen, regression happens. Plan "B" is a good thing - and something I don't think the Twins have really thought about over the past few years.

 

I'd love an offseason with one big move and a whole bunch of little stuff. Add depth. Have a plan B. (Please)

[diehardtwinsfan]

Haven't they already auditioned Parmelee and moved on?

 

They may think they have...  I'm not really certain he's gotten a fair shake.  Gardy doesn't seem to like him much.  If Parm's a 4th OF/PH, that's fine, but I'm not sure how they can come to a conclusion when he rarely gets to play more than 2-3 games in a row before ending up on the bench. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'd go for two fixes:

 

1. A stop-gap CF option. Pick up a vet who can hold a bat without embarrassing himself with the expectation that either Hicks or Buxton will later take the job. Do all you can to move Santana to short.

 

2. A more long-term fix for LF or RF. Maybe not Melky but someone who is competent out there.

 

By mid-season, that could be a pretty good lineup if Sano slides Plouffe into a utility role and platoon and Buxton/Santana slide into CF/SS and Escobar becomes a roving bench guy.

 

At this point, I don't care what happens to the likes of Nunez, Parmelee, and their ilk. They're fine as bench guys until something better comes along.

[Mike Sixel]

"there's no way the SP can be as bad as last year".....this is the now the third off season (since this is an off season thread) I've read that.....so far, it has been as bad two years in a row (not relative to the Twins, but to the league) give or take the margin of error.

[JB_Iowa]

And, except for Chief, we still aren't talking about the elephant in the room ....

 

Does the management staff stay intact?  Especially on field?

 

To me, a new field manager and (some of his) lieutenants are a big need.  And as of a month ago, there seemed to be a fair amount of agreement on that in certain parts of Twins Territory.

 

Have we just resigned ourselves to at least one more year of Ronnie & crew?

[Mike Sixel]

Resignation is pretty much my state, yes.

[bird]

Needing to see young guys play, and saying they have no holes, are two very different things, imo. There being few good outside options, and having no holes, are two very different things, imo.

 

But what are your IDEAS?

[Mike Sixel]

But what are your IDEAS?

 

I've been told not to post my thoughts in multiple threads, so my ideas on improving the team are found all over the forums.....I was discussing the topic at hand, that not having better options is not the same as not having problems that need to be fixed.

[Beezer07]

They may think they have...  I'm not really certain he's gotten a fair shake.  Gardy doesn't seem to like him much.  If Parm's a 4th OF/PH, that's fine, but I'm not sure how they can come to a conclusion when he rarely gets to play more than 2-3 games in a row before ending up on the bench. 

 

I feel like this has been the analysis on Parm for the last 3 years. I have no idea how "good" Parm is, because he hasn't done much, ever. Some of that is due to lack of playing time, but surely some has to be a sign that he's not a capable full-time ML player, no?

[USAFChief]

They may think they have...  I'm not really certain he's gotten a fair shake.  Gardy doesn't seem to like him much.  If Parm's a 4th OF/PH, that's fine, but I'm not sure how they can come to a conclusion when he rarely gets to play more than 2-3 games in a row before ending up on the bench.

 

At some point you have to start earning more playing time. He has ~800 PAs over the past three years of mid 80s OPS+. He'll be 27 next year. Going into 2015 planning on him manning a corner spot is wishful thinking, IMO.

[kab21]

If possible there is no roster reason to not add a pitcher that would be the best pitcher on the staff.  It might not make financial sense to spend 150M on a pitcher but this team sorely lacks a #1/2 and likely will for quite awhile.  Considering that the Twins have so many pre arb players set to start with more prospects ready to fill and a low payroll for the next few seasons there is money available to burn.  Better to concentrate that money in one great pitcher than spreading it around to several maybe decent players.

[bird]

I feel like I read this exact article last fall.

IMO there is little chance the Twins are a competitive team in 2015 if they do little to improve this winter. And I'm not in favor of sitting around through more losing seasons waiting for the minor leagues to provide all the talent this team needs to be a 90+ win team again.

There's almost no chance Sano or Buxton are productive major leaguers next year, and not a whole lot more hope foe Meyer, IMO...and that's provided they even make the big leagues. Meyer can't even crack the 25 man on THIS team.

 

So what would you do this winter?

[USAFChief]

not having better options is not the same as not having problems that need to be fixed.

If I give you credit can I use that as my sig line?

[USAFChief]

So what would you do this winter?

New field manager, he (or she) picks coaches. Invest assets (money and/or minor leaguers) to obtain better talent.

[gunnarthor]

New field manager, he (or she) picks coaches. Invest assets (money and/or minor leaguers) to obtain better talent.

What talent would you bring in?  What trades would you make?

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015-free-agent-power-rankings

[tobi0040]

I see a contradiction in these two statements:

 

"some combo of Nunez/Parmelee in the OF. "

 

"The situation is not dire anymore,"

 

Santana should get more reps at SS, but LF is a glaring problem with no satisfactory in-house solution. 

 

I am guessing you thought I meant Nunez/Parmelee in the OF as a future plan.  That was my rest of the year plan so we can get Santana reps at SS (where he has a shot at being a fixture).  My point was, we were told Santana had to play CF because he is basically the only guy that can play there.  That is not the case anymore, therefore we don't have a dire situation in CF any longer for the rest of the is year. So we should be able to take a step back, take a deep breathe, and re-evaluate why Santana is not getting reps at short stop.

[tobi0040]

At some point you have to start earning more playing time. He has ~800 PAs over the past three years of mid 80s OPS+. He'll be 27 next year. Going into 2015 planning on him manning a corner spot is wishful thinking, IMO.

 

Agree, the Parmelee expiriment has run its course.  He does not deserve more chances.

[bird]

"there's no way the SP can be as bad as last year".....this is the now the third off season (since this is an off season thread) I've read that.....so far, it has been as bad two years in a row (not relative to the Twins, but to the league) give or take the margin of error.

 

I'm sorry, mike, but this is so irrelevant.

 

Which of the other off-seasons were featuring a rotation of the current quality? And if you are critical of starting 2015 with Hughes, Gibson, Nolasco and some combo of Meyer, Milone, May, Pelfry, and about 5 other back-end candidates (BTW, I am, and threw out an idea), please offer a thought to complement your complaint.

 

I'm sure the mods will give you a special dispensation to offer ideas on a thread about offering ideas.

[USAFChief]

What talent would you bring in?  What trades would you make?

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015-free-agent-power-rankings

Dave Martinez.

 

One of Melky Cabrera, Nelson Cruz, Yazmani Tomas, or Nic Markakis (if he makes it to free agency).

 

One of Max Scherzer or Jon Lester.

 

I'd kick the tires on Hanley Ramirez.

 

I'd ask the Dodgers about a trade for one of their outfielders if they're looking to dump salary.

 

I'd ask Cincinnati about Latos.

 

Just off the top of my head. Obviously they're not going to do all those, but the point is, talent will change teams this winter. Go get some.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The only position where the Twins clearly need some help is left field.

Agree. I could feel comfortable rolling into next year without a major signing of a position player.

 

Wouldn't it be nice if Mauer came out and said "yeah, I feel I've improved at first base, but I'd be willing to give left field a try. I love a challenge and left field is where I always hit the ball anyway, so maybe I'll learn something new."

[Brock Beauchamp]

but I'd be willing to give left field a try. I love a challenge and left field is where I always hit the ball anyway

Ell-oh-ell.

[Brandon]

Looks like we have multiple options at several positions.

I like our bench Parmalee, Nunez, and Schafer, Pinto is the better back up C cause then we have a power LH and RH batter off the bench and speed

 

Rotation is fine but Shields for 3 or 4 years would be nice.  I don't think we could get the other top rotation pitchers for that short of a contract. 

 

SS should belong to Escobar as has been a top 5 SS offensively in the AL. Santana Should be able to take over if the need arises.  He should definitely be starting somewhere.

 

LF we have Schaefer, Parmelee, and then either Plouffe or Santana when Buxton and Sano comes up or we could sign a 1 year stop gap like Hunter  1 year 10 million is not too much. 

 

I think our bullpen will have more of a turnover during the season next year.  we will probably head to spring training with a similar pen and make transitions throughout the year like we did on our offense this year. 

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I am guessing you thought I meant Nunez/Parmelee in the OF as a future plan.  That was my rest of the year plan so we can get Santana reps at SS (where he has a shot at being a fixture).  My point was, we were told Santana had to play CF because he is basically the only guy that can play there.  That is not the case anymore, therefore we don't have a dire situation in CF any longer for the rest of the is year. So we should be able to take a step back, take a deep breathe, and re-evaluate why Santana is not getting reps at short stop.

Ah - I thought you meant that spring training 2015 LF was going to be a competition between Nuñez and Parmelee.

 

Having them roll out there in the balance of this season is fine, what is there to lose at this point?

[Mike Sixel]

I'm sorry, mike, but this is so irrelevant. Which of the other off-seasons were featuring a rotation of the current quality? And if you are critical of starting 2015 with Hughes, Gibson, Nolasco and some combo of Meyer, Milone, May, Pelfry, and about 5 other back-end candidates (BTW, I am, and threw out an idea), please offer a thought to complement your complaint. I'm sure the mods will give you a special dispensation to offer ideas on a thread about offering ideas.

 

this made me laugh out loud in pleasure, thank you.....

 

Again, I was responding to someone saying "it can't be as bad as last year", as did two others, I note....

 

I have not spent hours researching minor leaguers and rosters, so I can't really offer a good trade scenario.....but I'd certainly consider dealing for a SS, LF, CF (shorter term), 3B, C (I don't believe in Suzuki), SP.

 

With the information I have:

I'd probably actually roll with the starters they have, IF I knew more about Meyer and his readiness. Since we have no actual clue if he's ready for the majors (if only there was a way to gather that data this year.......), I'd sign someone at least as good as Shields. I'd prefer to go more elite, but I'd settle for Shields or better. I'd offer 3-5 years, depending on which guy it is, and I'd offer the going rate for that quality.

I'd sign Melky Cabrera to play LF. 

I'd gut the bullpen other than Perkins and, um, not sure 2 others, your choice, and replace them with guys from the minors, or players from other teams that HAVE OPTIONS so I can manipulate my roster better. Frankly, it is time to see Guerra, Tonkin, Oliverous (sp?), Acther, and???? up here in the pen. I'd certainly hope Burdi is ready next year.

I'd promote Alex Meyer day 1. 

Day 1 rotation: New guy, Gibson, Hughes, Meyer, Nolasco (alphabetical listing)

I'd see if Boston wants to deal one of their spare OF for a minor league pitcher in the Twins system (not Stewart or Berrios). The only reason to collect excess pieces is to deal them ......and prospects are worth more before they have their warts exposed.

I'd promote Pinto and have him catch 40-50% of the time.

I'd decide if Santana is a SS or CF this year, and play him AT THAT POSITION now, and next year.

I'd either cut, trade, or move Pelfrey to long relief or another BP spot.

 

with what I don't know:

If they think Sano or Buxton is not here next year.......I'd probably roll with Plouffe, but not be thrilled about it. I'd keep Santana in CF, and when Buxton does come up (if Danny has been good or better) move him to LF.

i'd promote Hicks ASAP, and see if this improvement looks real, I don't care about the minor league playoffs

If Meyer is not ready in their mind, I'd consider signing another SP in addition to the really good one.

 

That's off the top of my head....I am at work and all......and, if I really had control, I'd probably do more, but I was trying to be somewhat realistic....as if it was the Twins, and not the Twins with Mike in charge (which would likely be a disaster).

[drjim]

I feel like I read this exact article last fall.

 

IMO there is little chance the Twins are a competitive team in 2015 if they do little to improve this winter. And I'm not in favor of sitting around through more losing seasons waiting for the minor leagues to provide all the talent this team needs to be a 90+ win team again.

 

There's almost no chance Sano or Buxton are productive major leaguers next year, and not a whole lot more hope foe Meyer, IMO...and that's provided they even make the big leagues. Meyer can't even crack the 25 man on THIS team.

 

You misremember. No one would have written at this point last year the Twins had a set option at C (2nd catcher to split time with Pinto), SS, LF, CF, DH, or 3-4 rotation spots. They might have suggested short contracts at a couple of those spots to not block top prospects, but not that they were set. This is progress.

 

I also think you are mistaken in your next two paragraphs, but that is a matter of taste. Most teams in baseball improve via internal improvements, not through significant offseason additions.

[drjim]

And, except for Chief, we still aren't talking about the elephant in the room ....

 

Does the management staff stay intact?  Especially on field?

 

To me, a new field manager and (some of his) lieutenants are a big need.  And as of a month ago, there seemed to be a fair amount of agreement on that in certain parts of Twins Territory.

 

Have we just resigned ourselves to at least one more year of Ronnie & crew?

 

Not resigned. I think Gardy is out after the year.

[cmb0252]

Prospects are the currency of baseball. Why not use both our depth of prospects and available money to upgrade the team? Go after a Lester (who won't cost a draft pick) and then turn around and trade Meyer+ for an offensive upgrade?

[drjim]

If possible there is no roster reason to not add a pitcher that would be the best pitcher on the staff.  It might not make financial sense to spend 150M on a pitcher but this team sorely lacks a #1/2 and likely will for quite awhile.  Considering that the Twins have so many pre arb players set to start with more prospects ready to fill and a low payroll for the next few seasons there is money available to burn.  Better to concentrate that money in one great pitcher than spreading it around to several maybe decent players.

 

I certainly agree with this.

 

And I would take it further and say that if they don't go for a really good pitcher, they shouldn't bother. They have plenty of 3, 4, 5 guys ready to pitch.