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Enough Offense?


stringer bell

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The Twins face reigning Cy Young winner Max Scherzer today, so their run of big offensive games could come to an end.  It is also important to note that a week ago, the team was struggling to score one or two runs.  However, today the Twins are fifth in the AL in runs scored, they are second in walks, fifth in OBP, eighth in OPS, and 10th in home runs.  They have three guys, Arcia, Santana, and Vargas, all 24 and under, who look like they could be stars for years to come.  The Twins have two top prospects, Buxton and Sano, who also profile to be great offensive players. 

 

Currently, according to BB Ref, regulars Plouffe, Escobar, Dozier, Mauer, and Suzuki all are over 100 in OPS+.  Adding the five youngsters gives the Twins a pretty good and deep offensive nucleus.  Do the Twins need to add any more offense in the off-season or should they concentrate on pitching and defense?

 

I think offense is not going to be too much of a problem going forward.  I'm fairly confident that Mauer and Plouffe will improve on their current numbers, and I think Dozier is a reasonable bet to do so as well.  I'm not certain Escobar and Suzuki will improve, but I don't see them regressing too much either.  I think Vargas is the real deal, though I expect some growing pains next year.  I'm still waiting for Santana to regress, but I'm enjoying the ride and he's welcome to keep proving me wrong.  But I will say that I suspect he's going to take a step back next season as well.  That isn't a bad thing, just that I think he's going to have to adjust his game once MLB catches up to him.  That said, I enjoyed the show he put up this weekend.  Speaking of which, Santana and Escobar are both SS, and I don't want Santana in CF next season, so I'm not sure if that means Santana spends a bit more time in AAA working on his defense or if Escobar is traded this offseason. 

To me, a lot of this entire discussion (and the defnese one as well) lies with Arcia.  He's improving, but is far from a finished product.  I'd say the same is true on the defensive side also.  There's no reason to think he cannot be a league average defender in right, if not more so.  He's not a slow guy by any means.

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I'd say Hughes has been more than just "average."

By ERA he is 8% better than average. If you want to argue bad luck after looking at his peripherals I won't argue. On the other hand how confident are you that he'll walk less than a batter per game next season?

 

To answer the question at hand I'd like to see the twins add a front line starter. If that is too much to ask I'd like them to add a good outfielder but I don't want his contract to impact potentially signing a future ace next season. Whoever they sign they should use their payroll flexibility to either front load the contract, overpay for less seasons, or rework Mauers contract so he costs less in the out years.

 

What I don't want is paying some marginal player for multiple years there by locking up a mediocre talent and a roster spot for little upside.

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Here is an article on the Cubs that directly applies to the Twins.  It was posted previously in the MLB forum section.

 

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/chicago-cubs-rebuilding-theo-epstein-javier-baez-kris-bryant-jake-arrieta/

 

My takeaway from this is that offensive prospects/draftees are less likely to bust so you get an increased value to the org from going offensive heavy.  Yes, offensive prospects bust but there is a continual stream of pitchers that bust and now there has been a big increase in young pitchers blowing out there arms.  Since the Cubs (and Twins) don't have financial constraints for the most part they are able to load their system with hitters and the result is a very cheap offense. 

 

It remains to be seen whether or not the Cubs will become big spenders in FA (once they have a core in place) and/or trade their surplus hitters for established big league pitchers.  The other part of the equation is of course picking up average (TWood) or upside (Arrieta) guys on the cheap and hoping that something clicks. 

 

If the Twins have 6-7 really good offensive starters making 500K-5M/yr then they could go after some big name pitching in FA.  The money should be spent somewhere.

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By ERA he is 8% better than average. If you want to argue bad luck after looking at his peripherals I won't argue. On the other hand how confident are you that he'll walk less than a batter per game next season?

 

To answer the question at hand I'd like to see the twins add a front line starter. If that is too much to ask I'd like them to add a good outfielder but I don't want his contract to impact potentially signing a future ace next season. Whoever they sign they should use their payroll flexibility to either front load the contract, overpay for less seasons, or rework Mauers contract so he costs less in the out years.

 

What I don't want is paying some marginal player for multiple years there by locking up a mediocre talent and a roster spot for little upside.

 

As much as I would love to see the Twins add a front line "ace" next season, I think the chances are probably very slim.  They won't pay the kind of money that Leseter or Scherzer will get and next best option is soon to be 33 year old Shields.....who IMO doesn't deserve ace money.  

 

You would have to think that the starting rotation for next year is going to be some sort of combination of.....

 

Hughes

Gibson

Nolasco

Meyer

May

Millone

Pelfrey

 

any big splashes in FA just block the young guys, unless someone like Nolasco is traded, which at this point would be selling very low.

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any big splashes in FA just block the young guys, unless someone like Nolasco is traded, which at this point would be selling very low.

Having too much talent is not actually an issue for any team.  Certainly not the Twins pitching staff.  And this isn't even factoring the scary rate of attrition of MLB starters.  Entering the season with 6 starters (Pelfrey doesn't really count) is asking for trouble when two of them have an iffy injury history.  Strained ligaments (nolasco) and shoulder issues (meyer) frequently come back unfortunately.

 

any big splashes in FA should yield a better player than that young player can become especially in the starting rotation.  Young players with upside won't be blocked if they are the real deal.  Guys like this force their way into a lineup/rotation.  The guys that could get blocked are the guys that have average upside and probably won't be anything great.

 

What the Twins don't need is another Correia or pelfrey signing.  I have never understand the hate that KC got but this type of pitcher is not needed currently. 

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Having too much talent is not actually an issue for any team.  Certainly not the Twins pitching staff.  And this isn't even factoring the scary rate of attrition of MLB starters.  Entering the season with 6 starters (Pelfrey doesn't really count) is asking for trouble when two of them have an iffy injury history.  Strained ligaments (nolasco) and shoulder issues (meyer) frequently come back unfortunately.

 

any big splashes in FA should yield a better player than that young player can become especially in the starting rotation.  Young players with upside won't be blocked if they are the real deal.  Guys like this force their way into a lineup/rotation.  The guys that could get blocked are the guys that have average upside and probably won't be anything great.

 

What the Twins don't need is another Correia or pelfrey signing.  I have never understand the hate that KC got but this type of pitcher is not needed currently. 

 

While I agree with you on pitchers should force their way into the rotation......but look at May and Meyer this season.  Let's say Nolasco gets healthy......Hughes, Gibson and Nolasco are pretty much locks to start the season in the rotation next year.  If you bring in a high priced free agent, who is going to get squeezed out?  Of course injuries happen, but why over pay for a starter now? Don't you run with a combo of May, Meyer and Millone for those last 2 slots?  Find out if May and/or Meyer can be a usable ML option?  Will a high priced 30+ year old FA starter really push the Twins over the edge next season?

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"they can't win the playoffs next year, so why bother signing players that make them better".....I am tired of that one. Had they bothered to sign good players each of the last four years, they would have won more games, and would be closer to being competitive, then everyone would be saying they should sign that last piece to go with Sano and Buxton. Instead, they went self-fulfilling prophecy, and did not sign elite players (or even good ones before this last off season).

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The offense has been ok (far better than I expected, but that's largely been fueled by some guys jumping up to be producers out of nowhere), but we can't separate out how much the poor defense on this team may be hurting the pitching staff.

 

I'd suggest one way we might be able to improve both is to target an OF that can play good defense and bring some improved offense.  Victorino, as suggested elsewhere, may fit that bill well.

From some of the quotes we're seeing from Ryan, I think he's on board with this, I really do. I guess I'd be really surprised if we didn't see an outside addition of the type of OF you've described. It wouldn't shock me at all if he found us a front-line starter, and a better catcher too. Ryan has said the offense needs to improve, and in the last comment I read, his first mention was rotation depth.

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I agree that the future of the Twins batting lineup is promising.  Hopefully, barring further injuries/lost time, Buxton, Sano, and Rosario will be arriving in the near future.  I think the Twins will have plenty of power with Sano, Vargas, and Arcia in the middle of the lineup.  I'd like to see a Wade Boggs type of hitter ahead of them, but maybe Buxton or Santana will be that guy.  I suppose you could argue that a healthy Joe Mauer already is that type of hitter.  So, as a matter of projection, I don't think the Twins have to do a lot, and I agree that pitching should be their main focus.

This is all well and good for 2016 and beyond, Mr. Johnsonville. But there are things that can be done over the winter of 2014-5 to bolster the offense. AND to slightly improve a putrid defense too. 

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While I agree with you on pitchers should force their way into the rotation......but look at May and Meyer this season.  Let's say Nolasco gets healthy......Hughes, Gibson and Nolasco are pretty much locks to start the season in the rotation next year.  If you bring in a high priced free agent, who is going to get squeezed out?  Of course injuries happen, but why over pay for a starter now? Don't you run with a combo of May, Meyer and Millone for those last 2 slots?  Find out if May and/or Meyer can be a usable ML option?  Will a high priced 30+ year old FA starter really push the Twins over the edge next season?

 

I definitely do not hold back signing a starting pitcher that would immediately slot in as the best pitcher on the staff because we need to hold a spot open for Milone or May.

 

I think this would be an awesome problem to have.  If you look at successful teams (the Cards or the Braves for example) you will see them with good options to call up when one pitcher goes down.  Your plan is to rely on the Darnells, Albers and Pinos whenever something happens.  As we have seen in recent years a team needs 7-8 SP'ers to make it through a season.

 

May is kind of the poster child for my argument.  He's a pretty good prospect but he really isn't likely to be an above average starter.  If he's going to be good then at some point he will force his way into the rotation.  I certainly have no problem with starting him next year but if I have the choice between Lester, Scherzer, Shields or ESantana with May ready to be called up then I will certainly take the experienced starter every time.

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We know they won't sign any of the big three good pitchers, who does that leave? And, they are not getting rid of Nolasco.

 

 

Btw, there is room and money to work on both.....

We don't "know" this. Well, maybe you do. I'm betting a crisp $100 bill that they acquire a front-line starter over the winter, a player who is a consensus #1-2 or at least and more likely a #2-3 starter. Wanna take the other side?

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"they can't win the playoffs next year, so why bother signing players that make them better".....I am tired of that one. Had they bothered to sign good players each of the last four years, they would have won more games, and would be closer to being competitive, then everyone would be saying they should sign that last piece to go with Sano and Buxton. Instead, they went self-fulfilling prophecy, and did not sign elite players (or even good ones before this last off season).

The thread is about the offense and about the future, so we should probably pull you out of the past and into the present long enough to start a different thread to cover all this fresh material you've introduced about the past.  ;)

 

But I'm with you on the idea deeply embedded in your first sentence. Starting this winter, there are no bold moves that could happen too early. This will be the first time since the start of the rebuild three years ago (and well before) that the Twins have trade surplus to work with. So now, they can skin the cat using free agency and the trade market without seriously jeopardizing the strategy of building a sustainably superior ball club.

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We don't "know" this. Well, maybe you do. I'm betting a crisp $100 bill that they acquire a front-line starter over the winter, a player who is a consensus #1-2 or at least and more likely a #2-3 starter. Wanna take the other side?

 

Not directed at me but.....as much as I would like it if they brought in a consensus #1-2 starter, I don't see it happening.  It would more than likely take a vast over payment of a free agent on the wrong side of 30.  Even with the money that should be freed up, I would take the other side of that.

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There's also 26 year old Japanese pitcher Kenta Maeda - they could try to vastly over-pay for him, too.

 

In terms of an annual salary, how high realistically do we think the Twins will go? My guess is that the Twins will not spend $20MM per year on any player not named Joe Mauer.

 

It means they probably will not offer enough for Max Scherzer or Jon Lester.

 

They could certainly sign Melky Cabrera or Justin Masterson for less than $20MM per year.

 

They should be able to get James Shields for less than $20MM per year, he's not worth signing for more than that. Someone might pay him that much or more. It would not be the Twins.

 

Hey, Victor Martinez is going to be a free agent too - if everyone still wants to move Mauer to LF, the Twins could make VMart the DH, play Vargas at 1B, and Mauer in the OF. No? OK, fine.

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We don't "know" this. Well, maybe you do. I'm betting a crisp $100 bill that they acquire a front-line starter over the winter, a player who is a consensus #1-2 or at least and more likely a #2-3 starter. Wanna take the other side?

I have a feeling you'll get more takers on this than you have $100 bills to offer.  Twins pitching improved quite a bit this offseason.  Unfortunately, so did major league pitching, and the Twins are no better off than last season (though admittedly, the games are more watchable).  But with Hughes and Gibson earning their spots, large amounts of money dedicated to Nolaso and Pelfrey, the aquisition of Millone, and promising high upside/high minors guys in Meyer, May, and Berrios, I don't see the Twins doing much of anything.  No one is taking on Pelfrey and Nolasco.  They might get a taker on Millone, but thus far he hasn't exactly earned his keep either, and at the moment I wouldn't expect much more than a Sam Fuld type player.  One thing the Twins are very loathe to do is to part with sunk costs.   From a business standpoint, I can understand that.  But even if they were to dump Pelfrey, Millone, and Nolaso, I'd imagine they'd largely go young, not take on another contract that they might later regret.

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Twins put 42 runs on the board in the 4-game series against the Tigers this weekend.  With the exception of May, none of the Twins starters in those 4 games pitched into the 6th inning.  If that doesn't tell us where the offseason priorities should lie, I don't know what does.

That sounds good on the surface, but that 42 run DET series was backed up against a 20 inning scoreless streak that was only a couple weeks removed from another 19 inning scoreless streak.  This offense is far from sound.  We may be in the middle of the pack overall, but our pitching isn't good enough to survive low scoring games and there have been far too many.

 

There have been eight games of 10+ runs scored vs ten times shut out, but 101 runs in those 18 games (5.6 runs/game) has only netted a 8-10 record. Nine other games we only scored 1 run, which did produce one win, but that only reinforces my point (4.0 r/g should get you more than 9-18.)

 

The measure of an offense is similar to the measure of a starting pitcher: did it gave the team a chance to win? People (rightfully) complain about the crappy rotation, but games where we score 0 or 1 run are going to be losses, and there have been a lot of very flat stretches where this offense gave no chance for a win.

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Ryan has signed five free agent pitching contracts, traded for May, Worley, Meyer, Milone and Gilmartin, and they are still awful.......oh, and they graduated their top pitching prospect from the last drafts more than two years ago.....and they are still awful. Maybe we are looking at the wrong source of the problem......

 

Personally, I think this shows the complete and utter rot that Ryan inherited. Completely rebuilding a major league rotation and minor league depth takes time.

 

I would go big on a free agent pitcher and get a stopgap for lF.

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"they can't win the playoffs next year, so why bother signing players that make them better".....I am tired of that one. Had they bothered to sign good players each of the last four years, they would have won more games, and would be closer to being competitive, then everyone would be saying they should sign that last piece to go with Sano and Buxton. Instead, they went self-fulfilling prophecy, and did not sign elite players (or even good ones before this last off season).

 

Tired of beating up strawmen?

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That was in a post right before I posted it....that they should not sign a guy because he would not help them win enough games to be in the playoffs next year. How is that a stawman, if someone just typed it?

 

Fair enough, responding to an extreme minority position and acting like many people hold it is indeed better.

 

And the lack of quotes confuses me.

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Hughes, Gibson and Nolasco will all be around next season.  You have your top prospects in May and Meyer as well.  Not to mention Pelfrey and Millone.  

 

Relievers under contract: Perkins, Fien, Thielbar, Pressley, Swarzak, Tonkin and Duesing is arb eligible.  

 

Which 75% do you want gone?  

 

 

75% was obviously a frustrated liberal number.  Of the 14 pitchers on the ML roster, I would be fine with seeing Gibson, Hughes, May, Milone, Perkins, and MAYBE Pressley, Duensing, and Thielbar.  This is all going based on the feelings I get when I see the individual on the mound.  Burton's no good.  Deduno hasn't been the same since his arm injury, which is a shame because he had some smoke before he got hurt.  Fien does nothing for me.  Nolasco has to have some trade value.  Swarzak is a small tic below Burton on the frustration meter.  Pino could be a reliable reliever but I don't think he grades out as a starter.  Keep in mind, these are opinions.  My brain gets lost very quickly in the cesspool of metrics and if a pitcher can't get a 3rd out because of bloops or shots pinballing off walls, then I'm gonna lay the blame on him.  Actual errors are different.

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Fair enough, responding to an extreme minority position and acting like many people hold it is indeed better.

 

And the lack of quotes confuses me.

 

Have a hard time quoting on my phone for some reason......I should always remember that when I am responding to something......good advice.

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75% was obviously a frustrated liberal number.  Of the 14 pitchers on the ML roster, I would be fine with seeing Gibson, Hughes, May, Milone, Perkins, and MAYBE Pressley, Duensing, and Thielbar.  This is all going based on the feelings I get when I see the individual on the mound.  Burton's no good.  Deduno hasn't been the same since his arm injury, which is a shame because he had some smoke before he got hurt.  Fien does nothing for me.  Nolasco has to have some trade value.  Swarzak is a small tic below Burton on the frustration meter.  Pino could be a reliable reliever but I don't think he grades out as a starter.  Keep in mind, these are opinions.  My brain gets lost very quickly in the cesspool of metrics and if a pitcher can't get a 3rd out because of bloops or shots pinballing off walls, then I'm gonna lay the blame on him.  Actual errors are different.

 

Good response.  Obviously the guys you listed you would be fine with seeing back, will be back.  You have to remember that Thielbar and Pressley both have under 100 IP under their belt.

 

I understand the frustration with Duensing.  While he hasn't been bad, his BB/9 is up and K/9 is down and is 31.  I would not be surprised if the Twins didn't offer him arb.

 

Outside of a bad April, Burton has been very solid, but turning 34 next year and that team option of $3.4M, he is probably gone.  Fien statistically has been the best reliever on the team outside of Perkins for 2 straight seasons now.  At his cost, I'm not sure what there isn't to like about him.  Swarzak is your usual long man who won't see very many critical innings.

 

Overall the bullpen has actually been fairly solid.  I would be all for a group led by Perkins, Fien, Pressley, Thielbar and maybe Swazak with letting Burton and Duensing walk.

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75% was obviously a frustrated liberal number.  Of the 14 pitchers on the ML roster, I would be fine with seeing Gibson, Hughes, May, Milone, Perkins, and MAYBE Pressley, Duensing, and Thielbar.  This is all going based on the feelings I get when I see the individual on the mound.  Burton's no good.  Deduno hasn't been the same since his arm injury, which is a shame because he had some smoke before he got hurt.  Fien does nothing for me.  Nolasco has to have some trade value.  Swarzak is a small tic below Burton on the frustration meter.  Pino could be a reliable reliever but I don't think he grades out as a starter.  Keep in mind, these are opinions.  My brain gets lost very quickly in the cesspool of metrics and if a pitcher can't get a 3rd out because of bloops or shots pinballing off walls, then I'm gonna lay the blame on him.  Actual errors are different.

 

Fien seems like a better bet than Milone, Pressly, Duensing and Thielbar going forward.

 

But it would be a good time to turn over the bullpen, I don't think Swarzak/Duensing/Burton are back, Deduno is unlikely, which leaves Perkins, Pressly, Theilbar, and Fien and 3-4 new slots.

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By ERA he is 8% better than average. If you want to argue bad luck after looking at his peripherals I won't argue. On the other hand how confident are you that he'll walk less than a batter per game next season?

 

 

OTOH, he is 10th in the AL in Strikeouts, tied for 2nd in Wins, 13th in IP. Pitching for this team.

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Not directed at me but.....as much as I would like it if they brought in a consensus #1-2 starter, I don't see it happening.  It would more than likely take a vast over payment of a free agent on the wrong side of 30.  Even with the money that should be freed up, I would take the other side of that.

so would I, suddenly signing player to a 48 mil contract doesn't mean TR will jump it up to 100.
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I'd say Hughes has been more than just "average."

Definitely

 

Personally, I'd put Gibson in the "good" category. He is young, in his first full season, and still has a good deal of upside. He's certainly had some stinker games, but that's to be expected here and there. Even the best pitchers have bad games. I know it's easy to say, "when he's on he's really been good", because that's a very arbitrary comment that can be said of most pitchers. Still, the truth is, when he HAS been on, he's shown flashes of near dominance at times. Based on his age, stuff, potential, I think he rates above average at this point. And I know there is debate as to whether WINS truly exemplifies the quality of a pitcher's performance, however, they are supposed to pitch well enough for their team to actually win, aren't they? And don't wins, or more to the point, having a winning record, mean maybe a little more as a measuring stick when playing for a losing record team?

 

I'm a bit torn on Nolasco, mostly because I'm not overly familiar with him, never having really followed him, or the Marlins, previously. I've looked at his numbers, and I've read variable reports on the type of pitcher, and various opinions of his quality/worth. Up until this season, he has been reliable to take the mound and eat innings. And that is a good thing. Some feel being able to "eat innings" means you can't win, but can toss a lot of in vs in a losing effort simply to save the bullpen for another day. But it doesn't. It means you are reliable to take the mound, and usually pitch well enough to keep your team in the game, and don't shoot all your bullets in 5 innings. I see nothing dominate in Nolasco's stats, but I do see a winning career mark despite pitching for some pretty bad Marlins teams. I see more hits than I'd like, and a BA against higher than I'd like, but a decent Whip and a good SO/BB ratio.

 

Despite a lost season, magnified all the more being his first with the Twins after a nice FA contract, I think we have to do a better job of separating disappointment with past career reality and potential for 2015 and beyond. None of these 3 guys are in the true #1 category, though considering age and potential still not met, Hughes has the potential to at least come close. Point is, I think these 3 are a very good place to start in building a rotation.

 

Could the Twins add another high quality arm this next offseason via trade or FA, yes. Do they have the finances to do so, and the marketable prospects if they go the trade route, again yes. Do I think the Twins should continue to horde as many quality prospects as possible for at least another year and then maybe make a big move somewhere? Again, yes. In no way would I be upset or disappointed if the Twins made some move for a high quality starter to add to the rotation. But...with May getting his feet wet, Meyer a little behind him, Milone and Pelfrey as a couple fall back/temp options, and Berrios possibly ready at some point in 2015, I just wonder if it's a prudent move to make for a team getting younger and rebuilding.

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For those who are set to roll with Gibson, Hughes, and Nolasco what ERA or ERA+ or Fip or xFip, whatever you're most comfortable with, do you think is a reasonable expectation next season for these players?

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This thread IS about "enough offense", though pitching is definitely part of the team equation.

 

In a return to the original intent of the conversation, going to address more toward this point. The potential of the Twins offense over the next couple of seasons could be top notch! Of course, the exact start date this actually happens remains unknown. It could begin in 2015, even without Buxton and Sano initially in the lineup. Wherever he ends up playing, LF, CF or SS, I think we have to factor Santana in there somewhere. Can we just stop betting against this kid? Even with regression, he could actually show improvement by walking more and stealing more bases. Dozier is the real deal. Mauer is looking like Mauer...and that's the reason for my recent post reminding us all of what he brings to the table. How much better does the lineup look next season with him being himself for 140-150 games as our 1B and occasional DH.

 

Arcia still possesses massive potential, and we may be seeing some of it to close out 2014. I'm a big believer in Vargas and have been for a while. But these two kids are still very young, and each pretty much jumped to the majors with little or no AAA time. There are still questions about consistent production over an entire 2015 season. Plouffe has grown in to a good to very good defensive 3B, and while he hasn't hit great, he hasn't hit bad, is turning in to a big doubles maching, and still has some untapped HR potential. Suzuki could regress 25 points in BA and still hit in the .270's with contact and some discipline. I could go on, but the point is, there is a lot of potential even with Buxton and Sano slowed by a half to full season. But there are still questions and openings.

 

Some argue that RBI is an arbitrary and almost meaningless stat. And there absolutely statistics that can be used to make some arguement in this area. But RBI being meaningless is all well and good until your team doesn't have enough of them! Quote measurements and stats all you want, but when your team doesn't drive in a runner from second, or third, with less than 2 outs on a consistent basis, then talk to me how unimportant RBI is as a statistic. Despite potential in our lineup, and better run production this season, we've also suffered some bad stretches where we just couldn't score. And BTW, no matter how good your starting staff, they are even better when the team scores runs for them.

 

I'm not sure who or what or how the answer is brought, but how much deeper and better is the Twins lineup next season with an experienced bat playing LF...ideally with good defense...hitting behind Mauer, and ahead of Vargas, Arcia, Plouffe and others?

 

There have been some really interesting ideas posed here. And top of the cap to Dave for the Markakis idea as I totally blew who broached the idea. :)

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