August 23, 201412 yr Brian Dozier has made it to the 20-20 club (HRs and SB), but has struggled since the All-Star break. While Dozier looks like a fixture on the club, I don't know if his position in the lineup is assured. Dozier had done a admirable job in the leadoff role, but Danny Santana has supplanted him in that role. Things haven't been as smooth for Brian in the #2 slot. With Mauer injured, Dozier actually had a few games as the Twins #3 hitter. The splits say Dozier is a bit better in the leadoff position, hitting .238 with a .746 OPS, while hitting .221 with an OPS of .730 when hitting #2. Dozier doesn't profile as an ideal #2 hitter because of his extreme pull and fly ball tendencies, plus he is strikeout prone, being the first Twin to get to 100 Ks this year. I submit that Dozier should hit down in the order, at least until his OBP is higher. His base stealing ability is more readily used when not getting on in front of Mauer and the power hitters and he might have some runners to drive in with his home runs. The primary difference for Dozier between last year and this year is the number of walks he has drawn, already netting 71 free passes (plus seven HBP) on the season. That makes his OBP an acceptable .335 despite the low BA. I expect that Dozier will try to adjust a bit next season--probably bunting more and trying to use the whole field more--but the player he is could be a real asset hitting 6-8 in the order.
August 23, 201412 yr Assuming no Buxton and Sano for at least awhile in 2015, I imagine it could start something like this: SantanaMauerVargasArciaDozier Add Buxton and Sano and Dozier could drop to as far as seven, which is remarkable.
August 23, 201412 yr Dozier's OB was actually much higher earlier than now. Other than needing an additional breather or two that he didn't receive, I think there are two things than have tainted an otherwise excellent season for him. First is that he's been bounced between hitting lead off to second to third. The approach is different in all three spots. Secondly, wherever he has hit, there's been question marks as to who is hitting behind him with any quality or consistency. Ideally, Santana, the "what the hell" kid would continue at least some semblance of the spark plug player he's shown this season and continue to thrill and excell at lead off whether playing CF, or SS, or both. Dozier could then be outstanding hitting behind him and in front of Mauer. If Hicks, Escobar, or someone else could emerge as a viable #2 hitter in the lineup, then I'd love to see Dozier provide power and speed in the heart of the lineup in the 5 or 6 spot.
August 23, 201412 yr If it were me I'd put Dozier, Santana, and Escobar in 6-7-8 in front of Suzuki at 9 then turn over to Mauer at 1. Those guys can scurry into scoring position for the 2 best contact hitters on the club and not waste too much risk getting thrown out in front of guys who might be more 3 true outcome types (Plouffe, Arcia, Vargas, Pinto) Edited August 23, 201412 yr by Willihammer
August 23, 201412 yr At some point, I hope the Twins will be forced to move Dozier down in the order, but for now I'd love to see the line-up look like this on an everyday basis:1. Santana 62. Dozier 43. Mauer 34. Vargas DH5. Arcia 9 Hopfully by mid-2015 the Twins have to go with something like this:1. Buxton 82. Mauer 33. Vargas DH4. Sano 55. Arcia 96. Dozier 47. Suzuki/Pinto 28. Plouffe/Hicks/Rosario 79. Santana 6
August 23, 201412 yr If he keeps the OBP up, I could see putting him 3rd behind Mauer and Santana. I suspect Santana is going to regress a bit though, which would move Dozier back to leadoff.
August 23, 201412 yr Sometimes it seems like the appreciation of Dozier's defense, (and his perfect coiffure) and general all around game causes us to forget that he is stuck in the .230's. This equates 1\3 of a hit more per ten AB's than a certain shortstop now residing in Rochester. (Yes I saw the 20 HR's). My point being that if he is hitting above the 6 hole that means the rebuild project has not achieved critical mass yet. While this reply seems repetitive to another one I did, the subject keeps raising it's perfect hairdo!
August 23, 201412 yr Author With now 74 walks and 7 HBP he has 81 free passes plus his 112 hits. He has reached 192 times and his OBP is a pretty solid .339. Yes, the BA is low, but the free passes trump that. My point is that he's not really suited to the "put the ball in play and advance the runners" mantras that traditionally come with hitting second. Further, hitting in front of Mauer, Vargas, Arcia, and Plouffe does limit the base stealing portion of his base running tool. Edited August 23, 201412 yr by stringer bell
August 23, 201412 yr Hopefully, Dozier will be batting in Atlanta or San Francisco!For a top of the rotation cost-controlled starter and an intriguing B+ low-level prospect?
August 24, 201412 yr Well assuming we don't have any off-season acquisitions (which I hope isn't the case) I would put our lineup like this on opening day:Santana-CF Mauer-1B Vargas-DH Arcia-LF Dozier-2B Plouffe-3B Suzuki-C Escobar-SS Hicks-RFIf Sano is ready, he just swaps out for Plouffe (eventually, he'll be a cleanup hitter, but at first there is no need to put that added pressure on him). Likewise, I'd put Buxton in the 8-hole at first (eventually in the number two spot, but again, no need to put pressure on him until he hits). Santana then comes in to play short and Escobar sits out. At that point, the Twins should seriously consider moving either Escobar or Plouffe. I think both could command a pretty good return. No prospect is a sure thing, but say Sano and Buxton do hit like maniacs, then I put the lineup like this:Santana-SS Buxton-CF Mauer-1B Sano-3B Vargas-DH Arcia-LF Dozier-2B Suzuki-C Hicks-RFTo me, that looks like a pretty darn good lineup.
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