Love Trade

[biggentleben]

The bright side is though next year's draft isn't one player deep. The Wolves could move down as far as 8 and still walk away with a player that will help them. Personally, I still like the idea of Towns' shooting range and defense for the franchise long-term over Okafor to an extent. Although I agree Okafor is the safer pick if the Wolves wind up at one.

 

And I get the idea of the Payne trade. It's not exactly solid franchise building, but it's a lottery protected pick until 2020 and with most non-lotto first rounders you're looking for a guy who can play a role. The upside to Payne seems to be something of a Jared Sullinger type who can rebound and make you respect his outside shot. The Wolves really need that kind of guy (no matter which power forward they draft next year). And if Payne can't be that guy, maybe he can motivate Bennett to be him. The biggest problem is we've now sunk two mid-first round picks into finding it. But how valuable are mid-first round picks anyway?

 

Dollar value metrics are in a very infantile stage in basketball metrics, but the general decrease is that someone drafted at #30 is half as valuable over his career as someone drafted top 3.  The number decreases significantly outside of the top 10 and then slowly decreases all the way to 30, so basically, failing on two mid-first round picks is akin to failing on a top 3 pick.

[TheLeviathan]

But how valuable are mid-first round picks anyway?

 

I think that depends on who is making the pick.  Saunders has done alright at it so far, but as an organization the Wolves basically don't pick well anywhere.

[kab21]

I disagree with Ben's pick valuations.  I don't think any team would trade a top 3 pick for two mid/late first rd picks (non lottery picks) in the same draft.  The Wolves for example traded the 10th pick for two later rd picks and most thought it was a bad move at the time.  Luckily all 3 players involved have shown decent potential. 

 

I kind of agree with Scott's draft analysis (it's deep) but it's kind of the same as last year.  getting a Parker/Wiggins level player is much better than a Smart/Randle level player.  Other years though there is a much larger separation in the lottery.

 

But the main point with the Payne trade is that the Wolves got a mid/late first rd talent now for an equivalent value future pick (many years later).  And he fits the roster fairly well.  the big question is whether or not they have correctly evaluated his talent. 

 

The other important thing is that they aren't throwing in 1st rd picks for average veterans like they did with Young or was their MO in the 2000's (the Jaric and Cassell trades among others).  Speaking of that - good job Brooklyn.  You have destroyed any chance of being good in the future with that Boston trade last year.

[biggentleben]

Those weren't my valuations.  They're from listening to the ESPN NBA podcast with one of their analysts who mentioned that valuing of picks based on a WAR-esque statistic.

[kab21]

You agree enough with them to post them with any sort of relevance.  Imo once you get to that range you are just hoping to develop a role player with a small chance of getting a star.  The odds of getting a star are so much higher in the top 3 and that is what winning teams are built on.

[FattCrapps]

My top 3:

 

Towns

Russell

Okafor

[biggentleben]

My top 3:

 

Towns

Russell

Okafor

 

For any team, or for the TWolves, because unless they secure a trade or something, I don't think Russell should be in play for them.

[ALessKosherScott]

82Games had a pretty good sum up long-term pick value judged over twenty years. You can read it here, but to paraphrase the worst top-three picks (think Kwame Brown) still wind up being about as valuable as the average 15-21 pick.

 

And as for Russell, IMO if you're the Wolves you have to come out of the next offseason with someone with star potential and a promising power forward. The two can be the same person, but they don't necessarily have to be if Russell is the best player on the board.

[kab21]

Could Russell complement Rubio or would Rubio have to be shipped off to make it work?

[FattCrapps]

I'm just not super high on Okafor.  Yes he's a beast down low, but he's already huge (and looks a little slow)...wondering what he'll look like in 3+ years.  He can't shoot outside of 6 feet, and his defense is questionable.  He reminds me a lot of Al Jefferson (solid player), but at the moment I'd rather have Towns.

 

Towns could be a real solid defender (huge wingspan) and can shoot from outside.  Russell is so smooth, great handles, unbelievable shooter, silky smooth passing, and can rebound.

 

http://i.imgur.com/L7IP8tS.gif

[ALessKosherScott]

In my mind, I see Russell as a James Harden type. A decent enough point guard who's probably better suited to be a shooting guard who can help move the ball around. It shifts Wiggins to small forward and Lavine probably to another team. But he can work with Rubio.

 

With that said, you need to find a good, young power forward who's available in the offseason if you draft him.

[FattCrapps]

Russell could certainly provide some flexibility.  They could go small with Rubio, Russell, and Wiggins in together, or when Rubio's out move Russell to point and Wiggins to SG.  As long as Lavine gets nowhere near the court (especially at PG!)

[ALessKosherScott]

A pretty good read on Grantland on why the Wolves may be the most exciting Minnesota team in the future, and also a pretty good case for Towns.

[biggentleben]

So, Thad Young was a mistake, no doubt, but bringing back Garnett for a retirement tour?  C'mon now.

[FattCrapps]

A pretty good read on Grantland on why the Wolves may be the most exciting Minnesota team in the future, and also a pretty good case for Towns.

 

Grantland has great stuff from Zach Lowe and....wait, that's it.

 

Someone said Rubio's D is a question mark...

 

 

Also, Lavine is the only potential 2nd superstar on the team?  The same guy who the advanced stats say is the far and away the worst player in the league (although Bennett has been making a strong push lately)

[FattCrapps]

So, Thad Young was a mistake, no doubt, but bringing back Garnett for a retirement tour?  C'mon now.

 

Yeah, but I'm not surprised.  It's Timberwolves.

 

We gave up a 1st rounder for Thad.  Thad could net something worthwhile this year, and if he opts in to a 1 year contract next year, it will be even more valuable.  Trading for a $12 mil player when you could have kept Jeff Adrien for chump change?  I mean you gotta pull the trigger...

[Brock Beauchamp]

Trading for KG feels a lot like rearranging deck chairs. I don't understand the point.

[ALessKosherScott]

Trading for KG feels a lot like rearranging deck chairs. I don't understand the point.

 

 

http://globe-views.com/dcim/dreams/tank/tank-05.jpg

[ALessKosherScott]

Grantland has great stuff from Zach Lowe and....wait, that's it.

 

Someone said Rubio's D is a question mark...

 

 

Also, Lavine is the only potential 2nd superstar on the team?  The same guy who the advanced stats say is the far and away the worst player in the league (although Bennett has been making a strong push lately)

 

IMO, the writer was trying to wrap it up a little too neatly. Greek Freak is Milwakee's future star (and possibly the next Garnett), not Parker. But he wanted to wrap it up in a nice bow as #1 in last year's draft versus #2. For Minnesota, star #2 is going to be whomever they grab in next year's draft, not Lavine. But either way, the final line is the future looks pretty bright for the Wolves. And Rubio's defense is never going to get any love on Grantland after Jalen Rose called him a turnstile in this year's preview.

[PseudoSABR]

I think the Twolves just traded for their next coach.

[TheLeviathan]

Ok, can someone help me with the details:

 

We trade a first for a guy that doesn't have a position making 9.7M with one year left.  We then trade that guy for an old dude making 12M and extend him two extra years at the same cost.

 

Why are we doing this?  Is there something I'm missing?

[ashbury]

Trading for KG feels a lot like rearranging deck chairs. I don't understand the point.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2015_games.html

Atlanta Hawks at Minnesota Timberwolves, February 9, 2015

Attendance: 10,987

Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves, February 11, 2015

Attendance: 14,303

 

http://espn.go.com/nba/attendance

RK TEAM           GMS   TOTAL     AVG

1      Bulls                26  568,944   21,882

30  Timberwolves 27 373,465    13,832

 

My answer: Torii Hunter Syndrome

[Shane Wahl]

It makes more sense that they want to extend him than to just get him back for two months. I feel that all is right with the world again now that the man is back. Shocked that they didn't trade Martin.

[ALessKosherScott]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2015_games.html

Atlanta Hawks at Minnesota Timberwolves, February 9, 2015

Attendance: 10,987

Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves, February 11, 2015

Attendance: 14,303

 

http://espn.go.com/nba/attendance

RK TEAM           GMS   TOTAL     AVG

1      Bulls                26  568,944   21,882

30  Timberwolves 27 373,465    13,832

 

My answer: Torii Hunter Syndrome

 

I'd almost dub Garnett the Bizarro Torii Hunter though. Hunter can hit these days, but he can't defend. Garnett is still one of the better post defenders out there, but scoring isn't his thing anymore. Hunter is going to take 500 at-bats from someone who potentially will be there the next time the Twins contend. Garnett, on the other hand, is good for about 20 minutes a night. So that suddenly means there are a lot more minutes for Bennett and Payne that they may or may not be ready for. The bright side of it I guess is that defense has been the Wolves weakness ever since Garnett left.

 

However, it will make for pretty good dramedy if Garnett threatens to break AB after a game for slacking.

[ashbury]

The point about defense is a good one.  I was just thinking about butts in the seats, obviously - the bump in his salary for the last third of the season versus who he was traded for will be paid for if say 1000 people more per game show up.  (1000 x $50 x 29 games = $1.4M versus ($12M-$9.4M)*(29/82) = $0.9M).  That's a big if of course.  Based on the present reseller market I don't know what ticket price to set from the team's perspective; maybe all they can hope for is concession sales incrementally at this point.  In that case maybe it comes back to defense.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'd almost dub Garnett the Bizarro Torii Hunter though. Hunter can hit these days, but he can't defend. Garnett is still one of the better post defenders out there, but scoring isn't his thing anymore. Hunter is going to take 500 at-bats from someone who potentially will be there the next time the Twins contend. Garnett, on the other hand, is good for about 20 minutes a night. So that suddenly means there are a lot more minutes for Bennett and Payne that they may or may not be ready for. The bright side of it I guess is that defense has been the Wolves weakness ever since Garnett left.

 

However, it will make for pretty good dramedy if Garnett threatens to break AB after a game for slacking.

I mostly agree but I don't believe Hunter is taking 500 ABs away from anyone on the Twins who will be on the next contending team. If things go right down on the farm with Rosario and/or Buxton, Hunter might take ~200 ABs away from one of them (provided Hunter is even healthy July-September).

 

The only person who might be on the Twins the next time they contend is Hicks and if the Twins want to play Hicks right now, nothing is stopping them from doing that.

[FattCrapps]

i'd be happy with this dude:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9lEBEkeLDE

[ALessKosherScott]

Good trade? Bad trade? It doesn't really matter. It was nice to see the Timberwolves relevant for at least one night.

[kab21]

It makes more sense that they want to extend him than to just get him back for two months. I feel that all is right with the world again now that the man is back. Shocked that they didn't trade Martin.

 

I think they tried but he has 2.5 yrs left on his contract.  Nobody wants that.  Perhaps next trade deadline when he is 1.5 yrs away from FA and presumably healthy/good.

 

I think at this point the question should be whether or not the Wolves can win enough games to move out of the top 4 worst records.  They are clearly the best of the 4 worst teams right now.  Making up 6-7 games on ORL/SAC/UT will be really tough though.  That should still net them a nice pick with a really good 4/5 players establishing themselves at the top.

[kab21]

The Wolves have managed to lock up the most ping pong balls so that's what it is.  Towns looks awesome and I'm not really sold on Okafor.  Sure he can score but I'm not exaggerating nor am I just saying what others are saying when I say his defense was terrible.  It gets mentioned that he doesn't contest many shots because he wants to avoid fouls (possible).  It doesn't get mentioned that he allows bigs to establish whatever position they want down low and push him around.  He is still a top 5 pick but I'm not sure if he's the guy you want in today's NBA that is so focused on wings and hitting 3's.  I almost think that a guy like Russell or Winslow make more sense in the current NBA.

 

Despite having several veterans with no Wolves future on the roster the team also has a lot of intriguing young players.

 

Future star

Wiggins - he's awesome

 

Future 'what could he be'

Rubio - can a team truly succeed with a PG that can't shoot/score especially if they don't have a 4 that can hit outside shots?

Lavine - a really athletic guy that can score in transition, make things happen and shoot

Dieng - He's probably a top 10 C (or could be in a year) but can he be paired with Towns/Okafor on a team with Rubio?

 

Future rotation players

Payne

Muhammad

Bennett - is there any hope?

 

Guys that aren't going anywhere this offseason

Pekovic - nobody and I mean nobody is taking this contract without giving something back that is equally ugly.  He's not actually a bad player but he can't stay healthy, is a poor defender and Dieng makes him a poor fit other than as a 15 minute backup.

Martin - 2 yrs left don't make this impossible to trade but unless the Wolves end up with Russell or Winslow then they are going to need him around next year.