Article: Suddenly, Shortstops!

[hybridbear]

I like what Escobar's doing but let's cool the "sell high" chatter. He had a .587 OPS in the majors prior to this season, and a career .675 OPS in the minors. Hopefully he is turning a corner but I don't know that other clubs are going to jump at him because of a solid stretch of 360 plate appearances.

 

Also, there's nothing wrong with having a guy like him in the utility role. It's a luxury to have a versatile glove and a decent bat there, and if Santana should falter or get hurt, he's available to fall back on.

I agree. If at the break next season he's repeating this offensive production while playing good defense at multiple positions then it might be time to look at trading him to a team that would use him as a starter, provided that Danny Santana is locked in as the starting SS based on his production. Or, if Santana falters next season then Escobar can start & Santana can be the utility player.

 

I wonder if the Twins will look at extending Escobar this offseason. What's his contract like? If this season isn't an aberration having him locked in to a multi-year team friendly contract would be really attractive. And from what I've read about Escobar's personality & demeanor it seems like he would not be the sort of player to be overly greedy in his contract talks.

[Thegrin]

Escobar is hitting doubles, which means he is hitting line drives.

 

From fangraphs, Things to remember

 

Line drives go for hits more often than groundballs, and groundballs go for hits more often than flyballs. This means that a pitcher or batter with a specific batted ball profile might be prone to higher or lower BABIPs.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/babip/

[Oxtung]

Escobar is hitting doubles, which means he is hitting line drives.

 

From fangraphs, Things to remember

 

Line drives go for hits more often than groundballs, and groundballs go for hits more often than flyballs. This means that a pitcher or batter with a specific batted ball profile might be prone to higher or lower BABIPs.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/babip/

 

Danny Santana has a higher line drive %, ground ball % and infield hit % than Escobar.   

[bird]

I like what Escobar's doing but let's cool the "sell high" chatter. He had a .587 OPS in the majors prior to this season, and a career .675 OPS in the minors. Hopefully he is turning a corner but I don't know that other clubs are going to jump at him because of a solid stretch of 360 plate appearances.

 

Also, there's nothing wrong with having a guy like him in the utility role. It's a luxury to have a versatile glove and a decent bat there, and if Santana should falter or get hurt, he's available to fall back on.

 

We should also cool the notion that selling high means getting an All Star corner OF for him. My biggest complaint about this FO is, forever, they have disposed of players for abysmal returns. I attribute this to the fact that they don't have a strategic plan pertaining to a "sell discipline". Selling from surplus to fill holes is a strategic process, and the Twins suck at it. Escobar conceivably represents a salable asset  that meets the dual criteria of coming off a good year with some doubt about its repeatability, and being a player for whom there are very solid prospects that your replacement for him is an upgrade, perhaps immediately.

 

Put him on the market this winter, and accept only an overpay. If you get it, live with some combination of  Santana, Nunez, Rosario, Florimon, Michael. Hell, make this whole collection available, but set your price. Set it nice and high.

Edited August 21, 2014 by bird

[bird]

I couldn't disagree more.

Prospects with Sano's skillset (80 power, but a lot of K's, and no other tools), are about the riskiest prospects their are. 

Sano is the definition of high risk/high reward.

The scouts couldn't disagree with you much more, Mr. Brooks. They assign an extremely high probability to his success, and most every one of them describes his other tools as a whole lot better than "no other tools", with speed being his worst at 40 on the 20-80 scale as I recall. His arm is way way better than average, and lots of pros think he has a good chance to stick at 3B for a few years at least.

[bird]

This is how teams get in trouble.  Prospects are suspects until they actually do it.  All the other SS prospects are so far away from the big leagues that to predict how they fit into the future in the big leagues is pure guessing (most will never even make it).  Polanco is a second baseman, Michael has about two good months in the minors and is closer to Santana in age than people realize and the rest are years away from the majors.  Other than Gordon, my prediction is that none of the others achieve in the majors what Escobar or Santana has done this year.  That's why you keep them both - to make sure you have something decent to run out there for the foreseeable future.

The way teams get in trouble is to count on one or two prospects to come through. In our case, we're not talking about a bunch of non-prospects.  And you would have described Santana and Vargas as suspects this spring, maybe Arcia too.

 

The Twins have exceptionally strong MI depth now. SD Buhr has been watching Vielma all season, and the Twins are treating him like he's an equally intriguing talent to what Polanco and Santana were the previous year. So, I think it's fair to classify all these guys as higher-ceiling, higher probability prospects, Michael excepted because of his performance and injury history.

 

The caveat on all this is the question of who among them can play adequately at SS. I'll bet you the majority of us would have given Escobar a thumbs down to that question in April.

[Mr. Brooks]

The scouts couldn't disagree with you much more, Mr. Brooks. They assign an extremely high probability to his success, and most every one of them describes his other tools as a whole lot better than "no other tools", with speed being his worst at 40 on the 20-80 scale as I recall. His arm is way way better than average, and lots of pros think he has a good chance to stick at 3B for a few years at least.

 

I meant no other tools that are elite, which is what his power is. 

Yes, he has the arm tool, but I was talking more about his offensive profile.

 

Do you have a link to the extremely high success probability statement? 

Edited August 21, 2014 by Mr. Brooks

[Thrylos]

I meant no other tools that are elite, which is what his power is. 

Yes, he has the arm tool, but I was talking more about his offensive profile.

 

ok.  There are 5 tools.  Only 2 of them (other than speed on the bases that he does not really have) are dealing with hitting:  Power and Hitting for average/contact.   (the other 2 tools are arm strength and fielding)

 

(btw, and it is important, because people are throwing in it left and right when they are talking about Sano & tools:  Strikeouts or plate selectivity is not a tool. It is something that can be learned allegedly, thus it is not one of the 5 tools.  So K-rate & Co does not matter according to scouts.  If you don't agree, don't blame me, blame them)

 

So I suspect your concern is whether he can hit for average.  Based on what he has done so far, I'd say that his contact tool is probably the second highest in the organization (behind Polanco.) 

 

I am willing to bet, that unless an accident/injury happens, Sano will have a prime pretty much higher (I'd use OPS as a measurement to be subjective) than anyone in a Twins' uniform.  Only 5 times Twins' players broke the 1.000 OPS barrier: Killebrew twice, Mauer and Carew once (full time) and Thome once (part time.)   Sano will better that.

[Nick Nelson]

I think that his majors' OPS in sporadic duty before this season does not really matter.   Same with his OPS in the VSL 6 seasons ago.   I think that, like Dozier, turned the corner when he got some consistent playing time. 

 

Well, his MLB duty has been sporadic for a reason -- he hasn't hit. And... his OPS in the VSL 6 seasons ago...? Who was talking about that? He has a .688 OPS at Triple-A. 

 

Look, I like Escobar, but it seems we're in agreement that enthusiasm about his success should be tempered to a degree. So no need for the weird nit-picking.