Identical Record to 2013

[JB_Iowa]

I know many of us feel cheered by a few more prospects playing and look forward to better days.

 

But I just realized that as of today (August 16), the Twins have a record of 54-66.

 

Guess what their 2013 record was after August 16's game?  54-66. 

 

Maybe from now until the end of the year, it will go better.

 

But as of today, there is nothing about that record that is very cheery.

[stringer bell]

Thanks for making my day, JB!  Actually, that must mean the '13 Twins won a grand total of 12 games for the remainder of the season?  Wow.  The schedule is a bit daunting, if we consider the Tigers and Indians to be contenders.  I think the Tigers are, but the Indians aren't. 

 

The Twins should have a lineup of Santana, Dozier, Mauer, Vargas, Plouffe, Arcia, Suzuki, Escobar and Parmelee/Schafer at their disposal.  I don't think this compares with what was left in August and September last year.  Further, the rotation of Gibson, Hughes, May, Milone, Nolasco looks much better than what the Twins were sending out late last season.  I think 73 wins is doable, but not much more than that.

[JB_Iowa]

Thanks for making my day, JB!  Actually, that must mean the '13 Twins won a grand total of 12 games for the remainder of the season?  Wow.  The schedule is a bit daunting, if we consider the Tigers and Indians to be contenders.  I think the Tigers are, but the Indians aren't. 

 

The Twins should have a lineup of Santana, Dozier, Mauer, Vargas, Plouffe, Arcia, Suzuki, Escobar and Parmelee/Schafer at their disposal.  I don't think this compares with what was left in August and September last year.  Further, the rotation of Gibson, Hughes, May, Milone, Nolasco looks much better than what the Twins were sending out late last season.  I think 73 wins is doable, but not much more than that.

 

 

I do think last year was purely a disaster from this point on.  But it was kind of jarring to me to realize that the records were identical.

 

The Twins should be able to do better than those 12 wins in the next month+.  At least the young guys don't have a really high target to surpass.

[Jerr]

Helps to explain my lack of excitement for this years team. I mean the Royals are here and I was down watching the wake surfing on the Mississippi River, not even thinking about attending a Twins game    

[SwainZag]

I know many of us feel cheered by a few more prospects playing and look forward to better days.

 

But I just realized that as of today (August 16), the Twins have a record of 54-66.

 

Guess what their 2013 record was after August 16's game?  54-66. 

 

Maybe from now until the end of the year, it will go better.

 

But as of today, there is nothing about that record that is very cheery.

To me this year at this point is a lot more "cheery" than of last season.  We have players like Santana, Arcia, Vargas, May, etc to look forward to getting playing time.  Much, much more to look forward to, take a look.

 

Last year's starting lineup on 8/17

 

Dozier

Mauer

Willingham

Doumit

WIlkin Ramirez

Plouffe

Hermann

Clete Thomas

Floriman

 

SP Albers.

 

8/17 this year:

 

Santana 

Dozier

Mauer

Vargas

Arcia

Suzuki

Parmalee

Escobar

Schaefer

 

SP Milone

[Squirrel]

To me this year at this point is a lot more "cheery" than of last season.  We have players like Santana, Arcia, Vargas, May, etc to look forward to getting playing time.  Much, much more to look forward to, take a look.

 

Last year's starting lineup on 8/17

 

Dozier

Mauer

Willingham

Doumit

WIlkin Ramirez

Plouffe

Hermann

Clete Thomas

Floriman

 

SP Albers.

 

8/17 this year:

 

Santana 

Dozier

Mauer

Vargas

Arcia

Suzuki

Parmalee

Escobar

Schaefer

 

SP Milone

Perspective is always helpful, despite the similar records.  Thanks.

[Mike Sixel]

But many of those guys have been on the team for months, and this is the record.......I have hope, but it isn't like the results are all that encouraging. They should be better than last year, but that's not much of an accomplishment. Some days I look at the team, and feel hope. Other days I look, and I see the same bad, awful, base running and defense and record. Really not sure what to think. 

 

And, it doesn't look much better to start next year, with no Sano or Buxton....at the beginning of the year at least.

[SwainZag]

But many of those guys have been on the team for months, and this is the record.......I have hope, but it isn't like the results are all that encouraging. They should be better than last year, but that's not much of an accomplishment. Some days I look at the team, and feel hope. Other days I look, and I see the same bad, awful, base running and defense and record. Really not sure what to think. 

 

And, it doesn't look much better to start next year, with no Sano or Buxton....at the beginning of the year at least.

And what's your point?  The staff is better, the lineup is better, there is more young players trying to make an impression and had a one-up for a starting job next year and if they play at the same clip they have all season, they finish with 73 wins, almost an 11% increase on last season.

 

You might see a similiar product than last year, but I see a younger team with a better staff and a much more fun to watch product.

[Mr. Brooks]

The pitching staff may be "better", but it is still the worst starting rotation in the AL, and the 2nd worse in baseball (the only rotation with a higher ERA plays half its games a mile high). 

They have also gone, something like 340+ games without a 10+ K performance by a starting pitcher.

 

Until they either:

A) Bring in some MUCH better pitchers. Hughes is a good start, but as the overall staff numbers show, he does little to improve the staff as a whole. 

 

or

 

B: Bring in a field staff that can "do more with less", a la Oakland's smoke and mirror act to somehow get pretty good results out of Tommy Milone's pedestrian stuff, or likewise for Vance Worley in both Philly and Pittsburgh. 

 

This team is not going anywhere meaningful anytime soon. 

 

Yeah, it's great that we have good prospects. But prospects don't always pan out, and even now our best pitching prospect is going on 25 years old, and is still not good enough to make the, arguably, worst pitching staff in all of baseball. 

[USAFChief]

IMO, if you don't win more games, you're not a better team.  This isn't Olympic Figure Skating...you don't get style points.

 

YMMV.

[Danchat]

We are clearly superior in a rebuilding scenario. Last year we were starting Willingham, Doumit, Herrmann, Thomas, and Florimon. And not to mention, Andrew Albers. Yikes.

 

When I look at our current lineup, the only guy I see who shouldn't be there is Schafer, but that's much better than 2013.

 

Now, if our top prospects could stop getting hurt, then we'd be even further ahead in the rebuilding process!

[Brock Beauchamp]

IMO, if you don't win more games, you're not a better team. 

 

They'll almost certainly win more games this season, as last year's team tanked in epic fashion.

[Oxtung]

Another way to view this is our runs scored vs. runs allowed. All info is through 122 games.

 

2012: 538 vs. 627 = -89

2013: 487 vs. 555 = -68

2014: 515 vs. 556 = -41

 

The Twins pitching doesn't seem to have improved overall but the offense is slightly better.

 

Anyone know where I can check 2013 team pitching stats through August 18th?

[Kwak]

Sept '13 record 8 - 20.  But they actually one the first 4 games!  Total collapse!

[DaveW]

This years team is a lot different. All the prospects are a year closer and the rotation actually looks like we have some major league pitchers heading into 2015.

Hughes and Gibson are both gonna be very solid, Nolasco is just fine as well if he returns to career norms.

 

Milone should be fine (even after today) and we have a whole lot of young guys with potential who can take the last spot: May/Meyer/Pino etc.

 

The thing this team is missing the most at this point is a couple bats in the OF, the good news is one is ont he way in Buxton, and the other good news is that finding a solid bat to play in the OF they are the easiest to get in free agency.

 

Plus, Santana, Suzuki, and Vargas at least look like solid options for 2015 as wel.

[ashbury]

This years team is a lot different. All the prospects are a year closer

Could have said this part in 2013, or in 2012, or in 2011....

[USAFChief]

They'll almost certainly win more games this season, as last year's team tanked in epic fashion.

I tend to agree.

 

Still, they have to finish better to be better, IMO. Counting chickens, unhatched, and all that.

[Mike Sixel]

the pitching has given up the same number of runs, but is better? I am no mathematician, but that seems suspicious.....

[JB_Iowa]

I tend to agree.

 

Still, they have to finish better to be better, IMO. Counting chickens, unhatched, and all that.

 

That's just it. 

 

The Twins have 40 games left.  Do I expect them to win more than 11 of them?  Yes.  But I would have expected the same thing last year.

 

If they continue winning at their .451 pace, they should win 18 and finish at 73--89.  Can they miss that 90-game loss barrier?  Only time will tell.

 

The big advantage for this team to me is that Mauer seems to be healthy now as opposed to going on the DL with a concussion last year.

 

But I'd like to see this team prove something and win MORE than 18.

[Thrylos]

I think that regardless how horrible exactly 2014 might end up being, the big issue is that 2014 is the fourth horrible season in a row. 

 

And a lesson learned in 2014:

 

- Spending money will not make much difference in the bottom line for this team.  Because that they did.

 

To be added with the lessons learned from previous seasons:

 

- Replacing Bill Smith was not the solution of this team's woes (2012-2014)

- Jerry, Stelly & the chairs the coaches were sitting on were not the reason of this team's woes (2013-2014)

- The individuals heading the Twins' medical and training team were not the reason of this team's woes (2013-2014)

 

Eager to see what will happen after this season and whether the Twins will think that point solutions here or there, or throwing $ to the problem, might not be exactly what is needed to right this ship...

[Mike Sixel]

I would hardy say they threw money at the problem in a meaningful way. Adding one or two players can't fix these holes. They need to add more for any addition to matter.

[Halsey Hall]

Two innings yesterday and the game was over as far as I was concerned, and I went golfing.  Last year there were many, many more games that were over quick and I tuned into something else.  At least this year I've stuck to the end a lot more than last year and to me that's improvement, at least entertainment wise. 

 

And this year when Hughes or Gibson is starting I've got the feeling we've got a good chance to win a game.  Can't say that about any pitcher last year.  And the young guys have my attention. 

[JB_Iowa]

Going back to this spring's threads, I found the following:

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/9925-will-this-team-be-the-worst-of-the-last-four-years/page-3?hl=+games%20+2014

 

 

With a really good (predictive) post from Kwak:

 

Last year's team collasped in September--finishing 4-20. While there were several reasons, it is reasonable to conclude that "fight of the fight had left the dog." Simply 'battlin' as they did the previuos 5 months should have added 4 wins--closing at 8-16. While a poor finish, that is far more typical of what happens in baseball for "a rough patch". Conclusion: Adding those four wins and another four wins would not indicate "a better team"--just one that that is more typical of losing teams in MLB.

 

A big factor to guage this season's wins would be what did the othe other four teams in the division do to change their teams? A huge portion of the season is against division opponents. Changes in opponents will definately affect the season's total of wins.

 

Summing up: the betting line is reasonable (71) because last year's team basically threw away September (would they do it twice?!) and Cleveland (maybe KC) won't have the same success as 2013. But, we shouldn't conclude that winning 71 indicates improvement, but simply the vagarities of statistics.

[DaveW]

the pitching has given up the same number of runs, but is better? I am no mathematician, but that seems suspicious.....

The bullpen has been pretty solid overall, and the rotation actually has some guys in it who project to be above average from here on out in Gibson and Hughes, last year our best pitcher literally was Kevin Correia (who is no longer here) additionally heading into the off season you have several other guys who can be average to above average starters in: Nolasco, Milone, May, Pino, Meyer.

 

At the end of 2013 we ha Correia and DeDuno as our two "legit options"

[TheDean]

I tend to agree.

 

Still, they have to finish better to be better, IMO. Counting chickens, unhatched, and all that.

 

I agree with this.  Unwise to count unhatched poultry products, but jeez, that lineup from last year.  Florimon, Thomas, Ramierez, Herrmann?  It burns my eyes to read that.  I almost cannot imagine a world where actual ML-level bats cannot find a few more wins than Clete and co.  Granted, maybe Gardy wasn't rolling out the big sub-replacement-level machine every game last year, but still.

[Kwak]

I think that regardless how horrible exactly 2014 might end up being, the big issue is that 2014 is the fourth horrible season in a row. 

 

And a lesson learned in 2014:

 

- Spending money will not make much difference in the bottom line for this team.  Because that they did.

 

To be added with the lessons learned from previous seasons:

 

- Replacing Bill Smith was not the solution of this team's woes (2012-2014)

- Jerry, Stelly & the chairs the coaches were sitting on were not the reason of this team's woes (2013-2014)

- The individuals heading the Twins' medical and training team were not the reason of this team's woes (2013-2014)

 

Eager to see what will happen after this season and whether the Twins will think that point solutions here or there, or throwing $ to the problem, might not be exactly what is needed to right this ship...

Throwing $ might not right the ship, but not spending will sink it.  The development of power hitters will eventually build a team that can "outscore opponents" and permit winning with less than stellar pitching--like April of this season.  Of course when the hitting stops, so will the winning.  I'm sure that pitchers have more confidence (and will see commensurate results) if they can "pitch with a lead" consistently.  The opponents score first far too often.  I believe if the Twins prove to become a "scoring machine", that they will be able to sign pitchers who are proven winners rather middle-of-the-road guys or for that matter reclamation projects.

[Dantes929]

Could have said this part in 2013, or in 2012, or in 2011....

True on the face of it but in 2011 we were promoting guys that were failing at AAA and AA simply because we needed bodies. In other words there weren't many legitimate prospects and they were doing very poorly. Now we have legitimate top prospects and some have progressed and some are progressing at the major league level. Of course not every prospect pans out, even the top ones but using that reasoning to dismiss them is kind of myopic. With few exceptions, every good player we've ever had was a prospect with us or was acquired by a player that was a prospect with us at one time. It takes time but I would rather watch these guys develop than trade them. Alex Gordon was once the #2 prospect in all of baseball and played lousy for 4 years before figuring it out. Same with Gomez. Saying top prosprospects don't always develop into all stars is self evident but so is saying most all stars were at one point top prospcts.

[MileHighTwinsFan]

The key down the stretch will be the pitching of Nolasco, May and to a lesser extent Milone.  If we don't see strong performances from those three - we are looking at a similar end to the season as last year.

 

On the positive side, Santana, Vargas, Arcia and a healthy Mauer provide reasons for optimism in the line-up.   The team is going to score runs down the stretch, the question is whether our pitchers will give this line-up a chance to use their new power to win games in the late innings rather than simply provide pyrotechnics in games where the outcome is no longer in doubt.

[iTwins]

Last year's team imploded epically. That last month was simply unwatchable, and I watch nearly every moment this team is on TV (so...I can put up with a LOT of bad). This year's team has been posting at or just below.500 records each month and has avoided some of the long skids the 2013 Twins endured. I also think the young talent will help this roster win some games - 2013 featured some veterans running out of gas or battling injuries.