Article: Twins Trade Kevin Correia, Recall Tommy Milone

[kab21]

Well, if you limit this examination of Twins decision-making to free agents available in December 2012, sure, KC was probably as good as the Twins were going to do without a huge contractual commitment.

 

But -- it's not like the names in this particular FA market were a surprise to anyone.  The rules for FA were not changed, they were all 6+ year veterans, known for a year-plus as likely FA.  But the previous offseason, the Twins did even less despite having similar serious impending rotation issues.

 

As soon as TR took over after 2011, the Twins entered slow rebuild mode, which meant roll the dice with whatever's left under contract while restocking the minor leagues, augmenting with only bargain bin FAs when absolutely necessary.  That's how our 2013 rotation (and team) came to be, not through one poor FA SP class.  And those critical of the KC signing generally object to the slow rebuild, or at least committing so exclusively to it.

This really isn't true.  Imo Ryan stayed out of the 2013 FA SP class because it sucked and he knew it.  Nolasco and Hughes certainly aren't bargain bin FA's and they were signed one year later in a much better FA class. 

 

No, he is not a wizard. That makes the off season no more a winner. They got a bad pitcher and were bad. Are we supposed to like that? I don't know how that thought can't stick. They were so awful, that we are supposed to be happy they signed bad pithers?

 

Would you prefer that they signed bad pitchers for more money and years?  I never said we should be happy and think Ryan was a genius for signing KC but he has (and KC) have gotten a lot of heat for not being a magician to find these mythical available good pitchers.  He could have done a better job but it's hard to fault somebody for not signing a player (good SP'ing) when that player wasn't available.

[Otto von Ballpark]

This really isn't true.  Imo Ryan stayed out of the 2013 FA SP class because it sucked and he knew it.  Nolasco and Hughes certainly aren't bargain bin FA's and they were signed one year later in a much better FA class. 

I'm not saying the 2013 FA SP class was any great shakes.  But Ryan opted not to sign any FA SP the previous offseason too (except Marquis), despite a staff with similar question marks.  He was similarly reticent about signing FA position players, outside of a couple very obvious needs (Willingham, Doumit, Carroll).  He was in full, classic TR rebuild mode.

 

And I've got news for you: a 3/24 FA contract in modern MLB is pretty much bargain bin shopping.  Not that it's entirely a bad thing -- who among us doesn't like a nice bargain bin? -- and to Ryan's credit, he's gotten a couple useful guys around that price (Willingham and Hughes).  His only foray out of the bargain bin was Nolasco (and even he was essentially just the most expensive innings eater on the market, in hindsight probably forced after the rotation disasters of 2012-2013).

 

I think maybe TR realized too late that 3/24 is the new 2/10, in terms of getting Tewksbury-level quality on the FA SP market.  Probably would have been better to be more aggressive in the 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 offseasons, looking for more Hughes level signings and investing innings in Kazmir upside types rather than trusting a very shaky status quo and very shaky, dirt-cheap FA patches (Marquis, KC, Pelf).  Probably doesn't affect TR's 5-year plan all that much, although it could have made the last few years a little more interesting, maybe given us an extra trade chip just for the cost of cash.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Back to the thread title, if you think of the two trades as one (Fuld + Correia for Milone + PTBNL/cash), TR still comes out ahead!

[ashbury]

Back to the thread title, if you think of the two trades as one (Fuld + Correia for Milone + PTBNL/cash), TR still comes out ahead!

If you really want to combine deals, I think it's simpler to look at the earlier trade as Fuld for Milone+Schafer (via waiver pickup).  The A's could probably have had Schafer but apparently preferred the trade, therefore I choose to connect those moves.

 

Trading Correia then stands on its own, though we don't yet know the return.

[kab21]

And I've got news for you: a 3/24 FA contract in modern MLB is pretty much bargain bin shopping.  Not that it's entirely a bad thing -- who among us doesn't like a nice bargain bin? -- and to Ryan's credit, he's gotten a couple useful guys around that price (Willingham and Hughes).  His only foray out of the bargain bin was Nolasco (and even he was essentially just the most expensive innings eater on the market, in hindsight probably forced after the rotation disasters of 2012-2013).

 

Unrealistic expectations.  Bargain bin doesn't equal the 20th highest FA contract in an offseason.  It's not a massive splurge but it is not like shopping at Goodwill.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Unrealistic expectations. Bargain bin doesn't equal the 20th highest FA contract in an offseason. It's not a massive splurge but it is not like shopping at Goodwill.

The best players generally don't reach free agency, and the ones that do are staggered over many offseasons. The 20th highest FA contract in any one offseason is not particularly impressive.

 

Anyway, my main point still stands: TR's behavior in the KC offseason was not very different from his previous offseason or any number of his other offseasons. His one move that seemed to really buck the trend was Nolasco and it appears to have been a bit of a reach to compensate for his inactivity in previous offseasons.

[kab21]

Let's consider the irony.

 

Almost the entire board complains that the Twins are playing veterans during a rebuild and expects every 30+ player to be traded but some also complain that the Twins aren't making big splashes into FA every season.

 

The fact is that the Twins have only had a few seasons to be able to spend money in FA since Target Field opened.  For the most part they have sucked during that time and they still aren't the Yankees or Red Sox.  They won't be able to spend their way out of the cellar.  Making any conclusions about a team's willingness to spend in FA based on a handful of rebuilding seasons will not give you an accurate conclusion.

 

FWIW - The 2012 offseason was even worse than the 2013 offseason for SP'ing.  There was buehrle and C.J. Wilson (15M/yr) and Edwin Jackson.  I'm certainly not going to criticize anyone for not spending silly money on average at best (and potentially much worse) starting pitching.

 

You could criticize him for not making brilliant moves like trading a setup guy for a cheap average starter (Travis Wood), for picking up a young failed prospect (Arrieta) that has turned into a stud and a new failed prospect (turner).  But he actually has been doing this with his best trade chips by adding May and Meyer while buying low (not bargain bin) on Hughes.  the Twins still end up with too many flyers on pitchers without stuff  but there has been an organization shift and stuff is actually considered in the draft, trades and FA now.  It's progress.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Almost the entire board complains that the Twins are playing veterans during a rebuild and expects every 30+ player to be traded but some also complain that the Twins aren't making big splashes into FA every season.

 

The fact is that the Twins have only had a few seasons to be able to spend money in FA since Target Field opened.  For the most part they have sucked during that time and they still aren't the Yankees or Red Sox.  They won't be able to spend their way out of the cellar.  Making any conclusions about a team's willingness to spend in FA based on a handful of rebuilding seasons will not give you an accurate conclusion.

I didn't mean to derail this thread, so I will just conclude by saying that this position you describe is not mine at all, nor do I wish to have a discussion on that topic.

 

Again, I was just saying that evidence suggests a thin FA SP market was not the primary factor in TR's signing of Correia.  You seem to agree on that point, given your emphasis on the Twins rebuilding process at the time.  I'd add a few additional factors too, but suffice to say, I don't think TR or the Twins were looking to add anything more than a Correia type pitcher/contract for 2013 regardless of what was on the market.

[nicksaviking]

This really isn't true.  Imo Ryan stayed out of the 2013 FA SP class because it sucked and he knew it.  Nolasco and Hughes certainly aren't bargain bin FA's and they were signed one year later in a much better FA class. 

 

 

While the class did seem to suck, I don't think we can give Ryan too much credit for identifying it as such.  He did after all go on MLB Network and exhasperatingly say that he was trying to give away money but none of the free agents would take it.  Seems to me this would imply he wanted those free agents but he wasn't offering enough money, years or coupons to The Seville.

[drjim]

I didn't mean to derail this thread, so I will just conclude by saying that this position you describe is not mine at all, nor do I wish to have a discussion on that topic.

 

Again, I was just saying that evidence suggests a thin FA SP market was not the primary factor in TR's signing of Correia. You seem to agree on that point, given your emphasis on the Twins rebuilding process at the time. I'd add a few additional factors too, but suffice to say, I don't think TR or the Twins were looking to add anything more than a Correia type pitcher/contract for 2013 regardless of what was on the market.

Don't the actions of Ryan the very next offseason cast doubt (at the least) on your assumptions?

 

I will admit it is hard to debate a hypothetical of whether or not Ryan would sign pitchers that didn't actually exist. But evidence shows that when decent pitchers were available he actually did sign a couple of them.

[JB_Iowa]

TOMMY MILONE, SERVICE TIME AND FREE AGENT STATUS

 

Found this post by Berardino to be interesting:

 

http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2014/08/13/twinsights-tommy-milone-concerned-possible-service-time-manipulation/

 

Looks like Milone could get a nice raise for next year.  But his potential free agency was apparently delayed by his time in Rochester.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Don't the actions of Ryan the very next offseason cast doubt (at the least) on your assumptions?

 

I will admit it is hard to debate a hypothetical of whether or not Ryan would sign pitchers that didn't actually exist. But evidence shows that when decent pitchers were available he actually did sign a couple of them.

Perhaps, although to believe that, you have to believe TR waited three offseason to find his desired pitcher and contract, and that pitcher was Ricky Nolasco at 4 years, $49 million.

 

I think it's more charitable to assume he was too passive for a few years, and had to somewhat force the Nolasco signing to compensate.

[drjim]

Perhaps, although to believe that, you have to believe TR waited three offseason to find his desired pitcher and contract, and that pitcher was Ricky Nolasco at 4 years, $49 million.

 

I think it's more charitable to assume he was too passive for a few years, and had to somewhat force the Nolasco signing to compensate.

Perhaps. But also possible to acknowledge that the options the previous two years were just that bad.

 

Hard to draw firm conclusions one way or the other in three year samples. But we can know it is within him to spend something. He did guarantee around $90 mil in new money last offseason.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Perhaps. But also possible to acknowledge that the options the previous two years were just that bad.

 

Hard to draw firm conclusions one way or the other in three year samples. But we can know it is within him to spend something. He did guarantee around $90 mil in new money last offseason.

As much as Target Field revenue is a factor, you can't simply disregard TR's and the franchise's previous actions either.  As much as they could be more active in FA now with more revenue, they have an abundant history of conservatism, not just in the FA market either.

 

Also, last offseason TR guaranteed $86.75 million... but over 10 player seasons, covering the next 4 calendar years.  That's still pretty modest, given the average salary for a MLB player is almost $4 million and that's obviously held down by pre-arb guys.  Looked at in total, he basically signed 3 FAs at average FA prices.  And two of them have looked terrible so far... so if your position is that he was biding his time through the previous two offseasons, waiting for perfect time to strike in FA, that reflects fairly poorly on his GM acumen.

 

Again, I think it is more charitable to TR to assume he adjusted his FA budget/mindset after 2013, rather than he just previously didn't think any FA pitchers could deliver the value of 2014 Nolasco and Pelfrey.

[drjim]

As much as Target Field revenue is a factor, you can't simply disregard TR's and the franchise's previous actions either.  As much as they could be more active in FA now with more revenue, they have an abundant history of conservatism, not just in the FA market either.

 

Also, last offseason TR guaranteed $86.75 million... but over 10 player seasons, covering the next 4 calendar years.  That's still pretty modest, given the average salary for a MLB player is almost $4 million and that's obviously held down by pre-arb guys.  Looked at in total, he basically signed 3 FAs at average FA prices.  And two of them have looked terrible so far... so if your position is that he was biding his time through the previous two offseasons, waiting for perfect time to strike in FA, that reflects fairly poorly on his GM acumen.

 

Again, I think it is more charitable to TR to assume he adjusted his FA budget/mindset after 2013, rather than he just previously didn't think any FA pitchers could deliver the value of 2014 Nolasco and Pelfrey.

 

I would say comparing the actions of Target Field to the Metrodome would be a fool's errand. I absolutely expect more free agent signings now, and we have clearly seen that. He spent more in each of the past three seasons than he ever did in the Dome, as he should.

 

I would not disagree that they were "modest" signings this offseason, but I would say they are pretty realistic for the tier that the Twins are in relative to comparable franchises/markets. They aren't going to outbid the big market teams.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I would say comparing the actions of Target Field to the Metrodome would be a fool's errand. I absolutely expect more free agent signings now, and we have clearly seen that. He spent more in each of the past three seasons than he ever did in the Dome, as he should.

 

I would not disagree that they were "modest" signings this offseason, but I would say they are pretty realistic for the tier that the Twins are in relative to comparable franchises/markets. They aren't going to outbid the big market teams.

Seems like you're trying to have it both ways -- saying TR didn't sign better guys because of the poor FA market, but then also saying he is limited in his signings by our payroll / media market.

 

I won't dispute that the 2012-2013 FA SP market was fairly thin and that was a factor, but again, there's plenty of evidence that the Twins would have wound up with a similar haul from a better market too, just based on how they prefer to operate, which I feel is a greater factor.

[drjim]

Seems like you're trying to have it both ways -- saying TR didn't sign better guys because of the poor FA market, but then also saying he is limited in his signings by our payroll / media market.

 

I won't dispute that the 2012-2013 FA SP market was fairly thin and that was a factor, but again, there's plenty of evidence that the Twins would have wound up with a similar haul from a better market too, just based on how they prefer to operate, which I feel is a greater factor.

 

But there is also evidence, as recently as last offseason, that a better market would have resulted in better pitchers.

 

And I don't think the statements in the first paragraph are mutually exclusive. They didn't get anyone good in 12-13 because it was a terrible free agent market, but there is also ultimately an upper limit to the type of free agent the Twins can realistically sign. The can't get the absolute elite guys (Scherzer and Lester this offseason), but can certainly get better guys than Correia. Some years there are handful of players in this range (like last year), and sometimes there are virtually no one (like 12-13).

 

This offseason is interesting because there is some depth, but the Twins may actually end the season with representative starters for all slots, depending on how they feel about May, Meyer and Milone.

Edited August 14, 2014 by drjim

[old nurse]

TOMMY MILONE, SERVICE TIME AND FREE AGENT STATUS

 

Found this post by Berardino to be interesting:

 

http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2014/08/13/twinsights-tommy-milone-concerned-possible-service-time-manipulation/

 

Looks like Milone could get a nice raise for next year.  But his potential free agency was apparently delayed by his time in Rochester.

So the front office is capable of doing math.

[TheLeviathan]

But there is also evidence, as recently as last offseason, that a better market would have resulted in better pitchers.

 

 

There is and it was a wonderful breath of fresh air.  But let's not pretend Ryan's dabbling in FA has ever made much sense.  Even under restrictive payrolls he nickel'd and dime'd rather than sought true upgrades.  (Just look at some of the wasted millions between 2005-2008 that, if combined, might have actually added someone who could play baseball effectively)

 

So fair or not, Ryan has a reputation he has to buck to make people believe he's changed his stripes.

[old nurse]

There is and it was a wonderful breath of fresh air.  But let's not pretend Ryan's dabbling in FA has ever made much sense.  Even under restrictive payrolls he nickel'd and dime'd rather than sought true upgrades.  (Just look at some of the wasted millions between 2005-2008 that, if combined, might have actually added someone who could play baseball effectively)

 

So fair or not, Ryan has a reputation he has to buck to make people believe he's changed his stripes.

after the 2004 season they signed 2 players  Juan Casro for 2 years, 1 million a year.

I don't think anyone would say the Redman was a bad signing or a waste of money

2005 Rondel White for 2 years 2.5 million.

2006 Ortiz and Cirillo. Spent 4.6 mil  Got Matt Marci in return.

3 year period. 11 million. Whata could have Ryan gotten with better budgeting over the three years for about 3.5 million per year?

[TheLeviathan]

after the 2004 season they signed 2 players  Juan Casro for 2 years, 1 million a year.

I don't think anyone would say the Redman was a bad signing or a waste of money

2005 Rondel White for 2 years 2.5 million.

2006 Ortiz and Cirillo. Spent 4.6 mil  Got Matt Marci in return.

3 year period. 11 million. Whata could have Ryan gotten with better budgeting over the three years for about 3.5 million per year?

 

Counter-factuals like this really aren't a valid argument.  I know it sounds like it is to say "yeah, but what could've been better" but it eliminates the trade market among other things for how resources could be allocated.

 

The issue is the approach, not necessarily the results.  Now results like Ramon Ortiz, White, Cirillo, Ponson, etc. tend to verify my problem with the approach, but that's not the issue.  The truth is in 2007 there was 9M dollars worth of dead weight on a team with a 70 million-ish payroll.  That's pretty significant and something we saw consistently through our competitive years from Ryan.  

Edited August 15, 2014 by TheLeviathan

[Kwak]

Let's consider the irony.

 

Almost the entire board complains that the Twins are playing veterans during a rebuild and expects every 30+ player to be traded but some also complain that the Twins aren't making big splashes into FA every season.

 

The fact is that the Twins have only had a few seasons to be able to spend money in FA since Target Field opened.  For the most part they have sucked during that time and they still aren't the Yankees or Red Sox.  They won't be able to spend their way out of the cellar. 

The stadium was approved in 2006 and all projections were that revenues would substantially increase.  The Twins should have been investing in players.  It's very much like a business spending borrowed money because they are planning on a big increase in sales--except there is less risk for the Twins.  They were penny wise and pound foolish.  This probably wasn't Ryan's decision--but it falls on the entire organization.  The players I'm referencing?--the futures--internationals, the above slot payments to attract those not drafted as high as hoped (by the player) but still very enticing to a ballclub.  True, most will fail (many "new products" fail too, but companies must try anyway), but that's part of the game.  Much of the mess of the past few years falls on management because of their failure to "invest" in future talent while they were paying existing talent (ever increasing salaries) to have a winning team.

[LaBombo]

after the 2004 season they signed 2 players  Juan Casro for 2 years, 1 million a year.

I don't think anyone would say the Redman was a bad signing or a waste of money

2005 Rondel White for 2 years 2.5 million.

2006 Ortiz and Cirillo. Spent 4.6 mil  Got Matt Marci in return.

3 year period. 11 million. Whata could have Ryan gotten with better budgeting over the three years for about 3.5 million per year?

 

There are other names that represent predictably low return on investment over that span.  Some were free agents, some were home-grown players unwisely retained, and some were players acquired in trade.  Tony Batista, Sidney Ponson, Bret Boone, Joe Mays, Phil Nevin, Jose Offerman, Ruben Sierra...

 

None of them were back-breakers by themselves, with the possible exception of Mays and his seven million dollar stink bomb, but a half million here, a million there, three mill for Ortiz, and pretty soon we're talking about some real money, especially when adjusted for nearly a decade of league salary inflation.

 

Every GM whiffs sometimes, and in fairness to Ryan, he was gambling on risky veterans to fill holes around a young core with a fixed payroll/team control/contention window. Some of it took place before the stadium deal promised higher future revenue and (sort of) corresponding payroll increase, creating both future payroll uncertainty and a need to generate good PR with winning seasons and a public perception of a franchise willing to spend.

 

That being said... well, looking back at some of the players TR acquired or retained in that period and the tiny return on investment they provided makes me do the Joe Nathan lip flap and wonder what might have been.

 

Ryan is still a good GM and deserves credit for some excellent moves like the AJ and Shannon Stewart trades, the Hughes signing, and several under-the-radar sell-offs like the ones he made this season.

 

But to me, at least, his ideal role (and Gardenhire's) with the Twins would not be as a manager in the future, but as a C-cubed (consultant/consigliere/centurion) adviser not ultimately controlling the future of the franchise.

 

If the alternative is Rob Antony, however, some of my redundant and/or low-priority organs might be made available to Mr. Ryan if his reason for stepping down has to do with personal health.

[jokin]

 

 

But to me, at least, his ideal role (and Gardenhire's) with the Twins would not be as a manager in the future, but as a C-cubed (consultant/consigliere/centurion) adviser not ultimately controlling the future of the franchise.

 

If the alternative is Rob Antony, however, some of my redundant and/or low-priority organs might be made available to Mr. Ryan if his reason for stepping down has to do with personal health.

 

As the organization is now fully in the process of actively moving to the next phase of the rebuild, with the health of the GM in some doubt, the question of succession looms as large as any with the franchise. 

 

If they do not have an active succession plan in place, the owners are being derelict in their duty.  I hope the young up-and-comers are at the top of their list and on speed dial.  A dose of vigor injected at the top of the organization, advised and guided in the best of Twins Way baseball by the steady hands of TR and Gardy in the background would seem to be the best course.   Thirty-Something Assistant GMs, David Forst of Oakland and Jeff Kingston of Seattle, would be a good place to start the process.

[old nurse]

Counter-factuals like this really aren't a valid argument.  I know it sounds like it is to say "yeah, but what could've been better" but it eliminates the trade market among other things for how resources could be allocated.

 

The issue is the approach, not necessarily the results.  Now results like Ramon Ortiz, White, Cirillo, Ponson, etc. tend to verify my problem with the approach, but that's not the issue.  The truth is in 2007 there was 9M dollars worth of dead weight on a team with a 70 million-ish payroll.  That's pretty significant and something we saw consistently through our competitive years from Ryan.  

My point really was there wasn't that much money spent in free agency that lumping it all togetherr was going to get you some really good player. . Your point appeared to be they should have spent it all on one player.  If it is the process of how they add players,, ok. When you have to add players there are a few different ways. Free agency is one.   Were the contract signed  indicative of recent play by the players? Cirillo was around a 1.5 war player the previous 2 years. Rondel White the same. The pricetag was to what they performed as. The expectation was that was the kind of player you were signing. That is not unreasonable.

Ramon Ortiz has tantalized GMs for 10 years. Ryan is but one of many. At least he got a prospect. I thought Ponson was a minor league invite. Regardless, he did not stay long. And yes, they could have had a better evaluation process.

How else should have they added talent that year.

Hindsight to say you should have signed Hunter at 5/75. Easy to say if they were not going to sign him they should have traded him.  Leading up to the 2007 season they had 12 prospects that graded B or higher. That would have been so smart to trade the right 10.

I could be so smart and say they should have been trading Mauer and Morneau at their peak value that year . Would have brought in a ton of talent. How many years of contact between the 2 ended up or will end up as "dead wood" for what they were or will be paid.

Looking back it is easy to say the process was wrong.

Edited August 15, 2014 by old nurse

[old nurse]

There are other names that represent predictably low return on investment over that span.  Some were free agents, some were home-grown players unwisely retained, and some were players acquired in trade.  Tony Batista, Sidney Ponson, Bret Boone, Joe Mays, Phil Nevin, Jose Offerman, Ruben Sierra...

 

None of them were back-breakers by themselves, with the possible exception of Mays and his seven million dollar stink bomb, but a half million here, a million there, three mill for Ortiz, and pretty soon we're talking about some real money, especially when adjusted for nearly a decade of league salary inflation.

 

Every GM whiffs sometimes, and in fairness to Ryan, he was gambling on risky veterans to fill holes around a young core with a fixed payroll/team control/contention window. Some of it took place before the stadium deal promised higher future revenue and (sort of) corresponding payroll increase, creating both future payroll uncertainty and a need to generate good PR with winning seasons and a public perception of a franchise willing to spend.

 

That being said... well, looking back at some of the players TR acquired or retained in that period and the tiny return on investment they provided makes me do the Joe Nathan lip flap and wonder what might have been.

 

Ryan is still a good GM and deserves credit for some excellent moves like the AJ and Shannon Stewart trades, the Hughes signing, and several under-the-radar sell-offs like the ones he made this season.

 

But to me, at least, his ideal role (and Gardenhire's) with the Twins would not be as a manager in the future, but as a C-cubed (consultant/consigliere/centurion) adviser not ultimately controlling the future of the franchise.

 

If the alternative is Rob Antony, however, some of my redundant and/or low-priority organs might be made available to Mr. Ryan if his reason for stepping down has to do with personal health.

They did not learn after Joe Mays not to give a pitcher that relies on pinpoint control al large contract. Generally are not the same after injury. Periipheral numbers also were not kind to Joe

[old nurse]

As the organization is now fully in the process of actively moving to the next phase of the rebuild, with the health of the GM in some doubt, the question of succession looms as large as any with the franchise. 

 

The cancer was treated. There are follow up visits, but there should be no health concerns. Recccurent cancer of his type is about 5%

Edited August 15, 2014 by old nurse

[TheLeviathan]

 

Looking back it is easy to say the process was wrong.

 

This isn't a hindsight issue - over at BYTO that was always the chief complaint about Ryan.  Everyone knew his hands were being tied by ownership, but that didn't make his FA choices any easier to swallow.

 

Last year he stepped out of that box, let's hope he stays there.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

So... is there a deadline for announcing what the official return was for Correia? Did we get Joc Peterson and Kershaw or not? 

[Mike Sixel]

I'm 99% sure a PTBNL needs to be named in 90 days.