Article: Will Alex Meyer Pitch in the Majors This Year?

[Brandon]

The Twins could call up Meyer after the AAA season to get a couple of starts and the Twins could limit him to 4 or 5 innings at most per start so he can get 12 -15 innings of experience up here and have Corriea come in and follow up after him to pitch 2 to 4 innings if he is still on the roster or have May follow him and go 4 innings. too so they both get 4 innings per appearance at the end of the season.  That way they get the experience and keep the pitch count low.   

[JB_Iowa]

The Twins could call up Meyer after the AAA season to get a couple of starts and the Twins could limit him to 4 or 5 innings at most per start so he can get 12 -15 innings of experience up here and have Corriea come in and follow up after him to pitch 2 to 4 innings if he is still on the roster or have May follow him and go 4 innings. too so they both get 4 innings per appearance at the end of the season.  That way they get the experience and keep the pitch count low.   

 

 

is it really the same, though?

 

There seems to be something significantly different about 2nd and 3rd times through the line-up from the 1st.  Unless you're thinking of him as a reliever, it seems to me that he really wouldn't get "the experience" from short starts.

[USAFChief]

The Twins could call up Meyer after the AAA season to get a couple of starts and the Twins could limit him to 4 or 5 innings at most per start so he can get 12 -15 innings of experience up here and have Corriea come in and follow up after him to pitch 2 to 4 innings if he is still on the roster or have May follow him and go 4 innings. too so they both get 4 innings per appearance at the end of the season.  That way they get the experience and keep the pitch count low.

 

As has been pointed out, if Meyer finishes the AAA season, he'll be at or near the presumed 150 IP limit.

[Dantes929]

I'm all for protecting arms if protecting arms actually worked.   Nothing I have read supports the notion that 90 pitch games or 150 inning limits has any effect whatsoever.   Shut Meyer down and he is just as likely to need surgery after his 3rd spring training start next year as he is if they let him pitch to 200 innings this year.   Where's the science that "protecting" arms works?       Makes as much sense to shut Nolasco down as it does Meyer.    Meyer should have at least 2 starts with the Twins already.    I supported the Pino promotion and while he has been adequate he should not be guaranteed starts at this point.   I didn't care for the Johnson promotion but really didn't like the Darnell promotion.    He started out hot this season but was trending down.   2 of Meyer, May and Milone and preferably all 3 should be in rotation in the next 10 days.

[diehardtwinsfan]

As has been demonstrated in a companion thread with statistical information to back it up, the walk concern is vastly overblown for a High K-rate power-pitcher with a high GB% who also produces a high percentage of weakly hit balls in play.

 

As I stated after seeing him pitch in person, he's certainly not a finished product, but if the Twins are acting under the preimise on waiting for something close to perfection in the control department, it's going to be a long time coming.  Randy Johnson had 4 straight years with the Mariners until he was nearly 30 with horrendous BB/9 rates, before it finally clicked for him.  Meyer has had much better minor league BB/9 rates than Johnson, so he's actually well ahead of the Big Unit in that regard. 

 

I don't think anything of the sort has been "demonstrated" that his walk rate is vastly overblown.  What has been shown is that in some cases, pitchers can get away with high walk rates, but in general, comparing a guy who hasn't pitched in the big leagues to a hall of famer based on a few statistical similarities and physical build and concluding "see, it's OK, if Randy Johnson can do it, so can Alex Meyer" is a really bad way to manage player development.  I'm fine if you want to disagree, but calling it overblown is silly.  There's very good reason to be concerned about it, and I have no problems with the Twins if this is their concern.  This isn't a situation where they are expecting perfection.

 

As it presently stands, Meyer is walking 4.4 guys/9 IP, and that number has increased with each of his stops.  While he's certainly doing a lot of other things well, I think it's very reasonable to be concerned knowing that his jump to the majors will typically see an increase in that walk rate, a drop in the K rate, and likely an increase in his hit/HR rates too.  I think he's ready for a trial, but I also think it needs to be at a point where they won't be burning any options on him, which why I think a bullpen debut in September actually makes a ton of sense for Alex Meyer. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I remember the thread well. Despite the fact that Meyer was dominant throughout Spring Training and into early May at the time in question- ( it was the rerun of Gibson's early season in 2013, only a whole lot better)-..... In the thread I (sadly) predicted that the Twins would most likely not call Meyer up until May 2015- not because I have a crystal ball- but because they had just purchased so many alternative options in the offseason (Nolasco, Hughes, Pelfrey, Johnson, Pino), it was pretty obvious that Meyer's 2013 shoulder fragility and the financial considerations for starting Meyer's clock had precluded him from their 2014 plans.  

 

(Rob Antony's comments at the time clinched it for me...he mentioned what a huge hurdle it was going to be for Meyer- despite coming off of his consecutive double-digit strikeout games on April 23 and 28-  between the low-pressure AAA environment and MLB).

Then I stand corrected... unfortunately!

 

(and Antony should know of which he speaks.. what a huge jump going from asst. GM puttering around in the background, to suddenly being the guy in charge)

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'm making an assumption based on my projected rotation the next two weeks (in another thread) that May and Milone will be up in the next week, so Pino isn't the issue. I can see Correia being DFAd at the end of August if they can't get anyone to take him too.

But why would you wait on Meyer until he is basically AT his season innings limit to give him his highest-stress innings thus far in his career?  That seems rather reckless for an arm you are protecting.  And for a 3.5 week courtesy to Correia?  Why not a 6-man rotation in the meantime, then?  

 

Also, when was the last time the Twins DFA'd a player like Correia?  Juan Rincon?  Kubel's recent tenure here wasn't very long and his performance was worse (and he was arguably still limited by injuries).  Marquis' Twins tenure was short and his performance disastrous, same for Bret Boone back in the day.  Nick Blackburn was sent to the minors and hurt, but even he finished out his contract.

 

I guess part of this is that the Twins had good teams recently and didn't have too many of these guys, but Lew Ford, Rondell White, Joe Mays, Rick Reed, etc. were generally allowed to play out the string as health allowed.

 

A healthy veteran who has been with the team almost two seasons and simply has a below-average but not disastrous recent performance record?  If no one else wants him, I think he plays out the string here.

[tobi0040]

I don't think anything of the sort has been "demonstrated" that his walk rate is vastly overblown.  What has been shown is that in some cases, pitchers can get away with high walk rates, but in general, comparing a guy who hasn't pitched in the big leagues to a hall of famer based on a few statistical similarities and physical build and concluding "see, it's OK, if Randy Johnson can do it, so can Alex Meyer" is a really bad way to manage player development.  I'm fine if you want to disagree, but calling it overblown is silly.  There's very good reason to be concerned about it, and I have no problems with the Twins if this is their concern.  This isn't a situation where they are expecting perfection.

 

As it presently stands, Meyer is walking 4.4 guys/9 IP, and that number has increased with each of his stops.  While he's certainly doing a lot of other things well, I think it's very reasonable to be concerned knowing that his jump to the majors will typically see an increase in that walk rate, a drop in the K rate, and likely an increase in his hit/HR rates too.  I think he's ready for a trial, but I also think it needs to be at a point where they won't be burning any options on him, which why I think a bullpen debut in September actually makes a ton of sense for Alex Meyer. 

 

Logic would say that he will allow more hits, HR's, etc. against MLB hitters.  Any pitcher would. I believe all of these metrics in the big leauges will trump every pitcher we have brougt up since Liriano in 2006.  So a career 3.7 BB per 9 in the minors and the 4.4 this year is not enough to hold him back.

 

Heck, I would argue that if we were concerned about the BB rate, bringing him up for 5 starts and proving to him that he needs to get his BB's under control is the best thing for his development.

Edited August 6, 2014 by tobi0040

[Nick Nelson]

It's that simple for me.  They aren't 'young' prospects any more, take off the kid gloves. 

 

In most cases I'd agree with you but as I see it, the decision-making here isn't guided by performance. It's about taking every step possible -- call it "kid gloves" if you want -- to protect Meyer's arm and ensure he'll be healthy for next year. That supercedes the importance of him getting a few starts against big-league hitters. There have been too many injuries to this organization's top prospects.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 I think he's ready for a trial, but I also think it needs to be at a point where they won't be burning any options on him, which why I think a bullpen debut in September actually makes a ton of sense for Alex Meyer. 

You keep saying this, but I've pointed out it's false.  Alex Meyer will not burn an option year in 2014 UNLESS he is sent back down to the minors for 20+ days over the remainder of 2014.  This is all over the web, just google "mlb options 20 days".

 

EDIT TO ADD: some sites aren't clear.  An option year is used only if a player spends 20 days in the minors "on optional assignment".  A player not on the 40-man (Meyer) is not on optional assignment while he's in the minors.  Oswaldo Arcia's rehab stint earlier this year was not an optional assignment either.  Those days do not count for the purposes of calculating options.

 

For example, Doug Bernier was added to the 40-man roster and promoted to MLB midseason 2013, and spent the rest of the year in MLB.  He did not use an option year, despite spending the first half of the season in AAA -- because he wasn't on optional assignment at that time, those days didn't count toward his 20.

Edited August 6, 2014 by spycake

[Steve Lein]

As has been demonstrated in a companion thread with statistical information to back it up, the walk concern is vastly overblown for a High K-rate power-pitcher with a high GB% who also produces a high percentage of weakly hit balls in play.

 

Yup, this.  So many times this.  And should they really be that concerned about a guy who's On-Base Percentage Against is .300?!

 

Also, Baseball America published their "AAA Best Tools" today.

 

Guess who gets recognized for "Best Fastball" AND "Best Breaking Pitch"?

 

Yup, it's Alex Meyer.

[jokin]

I don't think anything of the sort has been "demonstrated" that his walk rate is vastly overblown.  What has been shown is that in some cases, pitchers can get away with high walk rates, but in general, comparing a guy who hasn't pitched in the big leagues to a hall of famer based on a few statistical similarities and physical build and concluding "see, it's OK, if Randy Johnson can do it, so can Alex Meyer" is a really bad way to manage player development.  I'm fine if you want to disagree, but calling it overblown is silly.  There's very good reason to be concerned about it, and I have no problems with the Twins if this is their concern.  This isn't a situation where they are expecting perfection.

 

As it presently stands, Meyer is walking 4.4 guys/9 IP, and that number has increased with each of his stops.  While he's certainly doing a lot of other things well, I think it's very reasonable to be concerned knowing that his jump to the majors will typically see an increase in that walk rate, a drop in the K rate, and likely an increase in his hit/HR rates too.  I think he's ready for a trial, but I also think it needs to be at a point where they won't be burning any options on him, which why I think a bullpen debut in September actually makes a ton of sense for Alex Meyer. 

 

 

We disagree about the facts that were presented, which is fine.  To me an extra walk every other game isn't a big worry when you've got a guy striking out more than one batter an inning, and has the rare ability to specifically "get" the strikeout of his choosing when the situation calls for it.  

 

Randy Johnson's minor league walk rates were bad, and they jumped for his first four years in the majors, yet, because he was the type of power pitcher that Meyer also projects to be, he was able to keep his ERA/FIP rates below league average.  Besides this important comp data, the factual circumstances for why Meyer's BB rate increased this season is primarily due to mastering the new change up- an issue that will gradually fade away over time.....can't stress the point enough, when the pitch was working on Sunday, it was devastating).

Edited August 6, 2014 by jokin

[jokin]

Then I stand corrected... unfortunately!

 

(and Antony should know of which he speaks.. what a huge jump going from asst. GM puttering around in the background, to suddenly being the guy in charge)

 

I don't often laugh out loud browsing the threads.  Mission accomplished, Hosken!

[jokin]

Yup, this.  So many times this.  And should they really be that concerned about a guy who's On-Base Percentage Against is .300?!

 

Also, Baseball America published their "AAA Best Tools" today.

 

Guess who gets recognized for "Best Fastball" AND "Best Breaking Pitch"?

 

Yup, it's Alex Meyer.

 

 

Great get, Steve.  The evidence continues to pile up.  And after watching him on Sunday, Meyer is not too far from winning a third award from BA for "Best Knee-Buckling Change-up". 

[jokin]

In most cases I'd agree with you but as I see it, the decision-making here isn't guided by performance. It's about taking every step possible -- call it "kid gloves" if you want -- to protect Meyer's arm and ensure he'll be healthy for next year. That supercedes the importance of him getting a few starts against big-league hitters. There have been too many injuries to this organization's top prospects.

 

I'm all in favor of using kid gloves for a potential future ace.  But, assuming he stays on the same routine, how does Meyer more greatly risk injury by pitching his remaining innings with the Twins instead of Rochester?

[diehardtwinsfan]

You keep saying this, but I've pointed out it's false.  Alex Meyer will not burn an option year in 2014 UNLESS he is sent back down to the minors for 20+ days over the remainder of 2014.  This is all over the web, just google "mlb options 20 days".

 

And as I've said before, I'm fairly certain that only applies with an injury rehab. 

[USAFChief]

In most cases I'd agree with you but as I see it, the decision-making here isn't guided by performance. It's about taking every step possible -- call it "kid gloves" if you want -- to protect Meyer's arm and ensure he'll be healthy for next year. That supercedes the importance of him getting a few starts against big-league hitters. There have been too many injuries to this organization's top prospects.

How does having Meyer pitch in Rochester instead of Minneapolis provide extra protection to his arm?

[Mike Sixel]

How is it less hard on his arm to pitch in AAA, than here? If you are worried about injury, just sit him down. That seems like a bad idea.

[Steve Lein]

It's about taking every step possible -- call it "kid gloves" if you want -- to protect Meyer's arm and ensure he'll be healthy for next year. That supercedes the importance of him getting a few starts against big-league hitters. There have been too many injuries to this organization's top prospects.

 

Don't have issue with the idea of "protecting an arm," but this should be a decision that is based on fluidity of his health in the present, not based on what occurred a year ago.  I bet Meyer would say he feels fantastic and can do more if you asked him right now.  Letting him throw 100+ pitches and go deeper into a game, or hell, pitch for the Twins, isn't going to exponentially increase a repeat injury risk at this point.  This notion is absurd.

Edited August 6, 2014 by Steve Lein

[tobi0040]

In most cases I'd agree with you but as I see it, the decision-making here isn't guided by performance. It's about taking every step possible -- call it "kid gloves" if you want -- to protect Meyer's arm and ensure he'll be healthy for next year. That supercedes the importance of him getting a few starts against big-league hitters. There have been too many injuries to this organization's top prospects.

 

it isn't clear to me how 90 pitches a game over the last month and over the next month at AAA is better for his arm than in the big leagues.  I don't think anyone has suggested the Twins go over their innings limit for Meyer, just that those should be up here to further his development.

[Otto von Ballpark]

And as I've said before, I'm fairly certain that only applies with an injury rehab. 

And as I've said before, you are mistaken on that.  I updated my post above with an example -- Doug Bernier spent half of the 2013 season in AAA and half in MLB, yet did not use an option year.  This happens regularly with players who are added to the 40-man roster and promoted to MLB simultaneously.

 

And once on the 40-man roster, they can even be optioned to AAA for less than 20 days during the season and not use an option (like Arcia will do this year).

[diehardtwinsfan]

We disagree about the facts that were presented, which is fine.  To me an extra walk every other game isn't a big worry when you've got a guy striking out more than one batter an inning, and has the rare ability to specifically "get" the strikeout of his choosing when the situation calls for it.  

 

Randy Johnson's minor league walk rates were bad, and they jumped for his first four years in the majors, yet, because he was the type of power pitcher that Meyer also projects to be, he was able to keep his ERA/FIP rates below league average.  Besides this important comp data, the factual circumstances for why Meyer's BB rate increased this season is primarily due to mastering the new change up- an issue that will gradually fade away over time.....can't stress the point enough, when the pitch was working on Sunday, it was devastating).

 

I think the problem with the walks is that it isn't going to show up as an extra walk every other game.  At 4.4 BB/9, he's walking a guy every other inning on average, for one... But more importantly, it will show up when his control isn't as sharp, at which point he doesn't make it out of the 3rd inning.  As it is, major league hitters are going to lay off those pitches more, which is going to tax the pen and shorten his starts.  This is why I think it would be great for him to pitch out of the pen in September. 

[tobi0040]

We disagree about the facts that were presented, which is fine.  To me an extra walk every other game isn't a big worry when you've got a guy striking out more than one batter an inning, and has the rare ability to specifically "get" the strikeout of his choosing when the situation calls for it.  

 

Randy Johnson's minor league walk rates were bad, and they jumped for his first four years in the majors, yet, because he was the type of power pitcher that Meyer also projects to be, he was able to keep his ERA/FIP rates below league average.  Besides this important comp data, the factual circumstances for why Meyer's BB rate increased this season is primarily due to mastering the new change up- an issue that will gradually fade away over time.....can't stress the point enough, when the pitch was working on Sunday, it was devastating).

 

Sorry to pile on.  But RJ's numbers at AAA in his last full season were 8.81 K per 9 and 5.72 BB per 9.  Both quite a bit worse than Meyer's.   His BB per 9 numbers over the first four seasons were much worse than Meyer's are likely to be (4.9 to 6.8 per year).  RJ's K numbers were 7.95 year 1, then just a tad over 10 the next 3.

 

Yes, it is a comp to a HOF guy.  But Meyer's numbers now are better and I would argue over the next four years his K numbers project to be about the same, with much better BB numbers......and RJ still put up a sub 4.00 ERA because he has excellent stuff, like Meyer.

 

I am not saying that Meyer will have the same career as RJ, but it puts to ease some concerns I would typically have

[Badsmerf]

I hate this article. Sorry Nick. The Twins can come up with any argument they want. The fact remains, they are purposefully not putting the best players on the field. That, in my opinion, is disrespect to the fans. Meyer's pitch count may be 90 (usually its 100... not a significant difference), that doesn't mean those 90 pitches aren't better used in the MLB. 

 

Pulling the development card or the play it safe card is asinine. The guy is in his mid-20, blowing away AAA hitters at his will and has logged plenty of time in the minors. He's a professional ballplayer, not a 12 year old kid preparing for the little league world series. I've been beyond pissed for 2 months about their decision making on pitchers.

[tobi0040]

The Twins can come up with any argument they want. The fact remains, they are purposefully not putting the best players on the field. That, in my opinion, is disrespect to the fans.

 

Looks like a duck, talks like a duck, walks like a duck......it is a duck,  Spot on.

[Steve Lein]

I hate this article. Sorry Nick. The Twins can come up with any argument they want. The fact remains, they are purposefully not putting the best players on the field. That, in my opinion, is disrespect to the fans. Meyer's pitch count may be 90 (usually its 100... not a significant difference), that doesn't mean those 90 pitches aren't better used in the MLB. 

 

Pulling the development card or the play it safe card is asinine. The guy is in his mid-20, blowing away AAA hitters at his will and has logged plenty of time in the minors. He's a professional ballplayer, not a 12 year old kid preparing for the little league world series. I've been beyond pissed for 2 months about their decision making on pitchers.

 

If I could "like" this more than once, I would.  Couldn't say it better myself.

[jtkoupal]

I don't mind them keeping those two in AAA in order to prolong starting their service clocks. However, I think one of them, probably May, should get the call in September. Get his feet wet in games that don't really matter for us. If he blows up in a start, it's not a big deal. However, I really don't love the idea of more pitching prospects learning under Gardy and possibly Andy. I think a culture change is needed in the dugout that is more conducive to the development of young players, a skill that I think Gardy has lost over the years with times changing.

[Mike Sixel]

They are already locked into the Twins past age 30.....this isn't about service time. 

[Oxtung]

I guess I don't understand why "taxing" the bullpen is a: an issue. b: a certainty. Plenty of guys in AAA can be brought up to man the bullpen if that is really an issue, which doesn't even seem like it is certain to happen.

 

They seem to call up hitters willy nilly (Polanco), but seem terrified to bring up pitchers. It is, as a fan, maddening. 

 

The 40 man issue is a red herring. He needs to be added at the end of the year anyway. The only tiny risk is that he gets hurt, and needs to be on the MLB IR, and not the MiLB IR. Other than that, it isn't an actual issue anymore.

 

 

He's not on the 40, but there's no difference now for him to be placed there compared to putting him on in the fall to protect him from Rule V.  He'll still have three years of options starting in 2015.  If it's not Correia getting DFA'd to make room for Meyer, I think it's Florimon.

    He needs to get MLB starts, though, because he'll be in rotation next year.

 

 

Meyer's future is a known regardless of how the next 2 months go.  He will be added to the 40 man and then be given a chance to compete for a rotation spot, if not next spring, next year at some point. That is going to happen whether he gets 50 innings or zero innings in the majors this year.  On the other hand there is a long list of players that need to be evaluated for 40 man spots this off season or lose them.  So by adding Meyer to the 40 man to pitch in a role he has never been in his entire life, that will make absolutely no difference to his future, instead of a player that has legitimate questions about next season is not "nothing" or a "red herring".  There are very real reasons not to add him to the 40 man until after the season.

[Oxtung]

We disagree about the facts that were presented, which is fine.  To me an extra walk every other game isn't a big worry when you've got a guy striking out more than one batter an inning, and has the rare ability to specifically "get" the strikeout of his choosing when the situation calls for it.  

 

Randy Johnson's minor league walk rates were bad, and they jumped for his first four years in the majors, yet, because he was the type of power pitcher that Meyer also projects to be, he was able to keep his ERA/FIP rates below league average.  Besides this important comp data, the factual circumstances for why Meyer's BB rate increased this season is primarily due to mastering the new change up- an issue that will gradually fade away over time.....can't stress the point enough, when the pitch was working on Sunday, it was devastating).

 

Where is the factual evidence that the walks are because of this new change up?  I must have missed that can you point me in the right direction?