Glen Perkins likes math

[drjim]

I'm sorry, but are you really leaving anyone the ability to answer this question or is this just an exercise in stubborn skepticism?

 

I'm a stubborn skeptic on this, but I try to respond to answers and dig more.

[drjim]

I think that statistics should be used as a guide to what's wrong, or right, in what you're doing.  Once you've identified the problem you can use other tools, like video analysis or pitch f/x, to determine what specifically you need to change.  However the statistics are the smoking gun that something needs to change; or doesn't depending on what they say.

 

I actually think Perkins shows you how he uses it in this article.  First, look at FIP.  His is at 1.82 which is significantly below his ERA.  So why is that?  Is that just random fluctuation, is it his defense, is it something he needs to change?  Dive deeper, we see his babip is at .330.  Why is that elevated?  Look at his batted ball profile and we see that his LD% is slightly raised from career norms.  He's getting squared up more often than he has in the past.  Now he can look at more specific stats to determine when exactly that is happening.  What count are batters teeing off on?  Now you can go look at the pitch data from that specific count to determine which pitches are getting hammered.  Now you know specifically which pitch is struggling.  Now you can go to the video analysis, combined with the pitch f/x data, to determine what exactly you need to tweak to improve. 

 

I think that the statistics are the smoking gun that show something needs to change, or not.  After that they lead to what needs to be fixed.  They can't actually do the fixing themselves but they can tell you after the fact if your adjustments were successful.

 

Great post. I appreciate these thoughts, this makes sense.

[Parker Hageman]

Another interesting note -- This year opponents are 39-for-130 (.300) vs his fastball. Last year they were 27-for-153 (.176). Small sample or something more?  In 2013, Perkins threw 211 fastballs 96 mph or above and this year he's thrown just 4. 

[Mike Sixel]

that was depressing, Parker.....and why a bad team should probably not sign a "proven closer" or any RP for millions of dollars......

[Oxtung]

that was depressing, Parker.....and why a bad team should probably not sign a "proven closer" or any RP for millions of dollars......

It also reminds me of that fangraphs article from last year about "proven closers" and how long their "elite" status lasts.  Let's hope he is the exception not the rule.

[LaBombo]

It also reminds me of that fangraphs article from last year about "proven closers" and how long their "elite" status lasts.  Let's hope he is the exception not the rule.

Or better yet, hope the Twins aren't determined to ride a popular but aging veteran's contract to the bitter end, rather than explore other optio...

 

Yeah, you know what, Ox?  Let's just go with your hope.