MLB Mock Draft 2.0

[travistwinstalk]

I am doing another mock draft of the top 10 picks and I invite everyone to do the same and see the differences in our picks.

 

1. Houston Astros- Mark Appel SP Stanford

2. Minnesota Twins- Kevin Gausman SP LSU

3. Seattle Mariners- Byron Buxton OF HS Georgia

4. Baltimore Orioles- Kyle Zimmer SP San Francisco

5. Kansas City Royals- Mike Zunino C Miami

6. Chicago Cubs- Albert Almora OF HS Florida

7. San Diego Padres- Carlos Correa SS Puerto Rico

8. Pittsburgh Pirates- Deven Marrero SS Arizona State

9. Miami Marlins- Max Fried SP HS California

10. Colorado Rockies- Courtney Hawkins OF HS Texas

[travistwinstalk]

By the way on Monday night I will be joined by Twins Daily's own Seth Stohs on the redebut of travistalks Minnesota Sports Weekly. We will be breaking down the draft and the 3 players that the Twins will have taken on Monday night. So mark it on your calenders Monday June 4th at 9pm central time over at blog talk radio join Seth Stohs and myself for the redebut of Travistalks Minnesota Sports Weekly. Ill put a link to the show here at Twins Daily, over at my site travistwinstalk.blogspot.com and also on twitter. This is an exciting time for the Twins as they are about to initiate the next wave of future Twins next week with the draft. Get all the info you need on these new Twins on Monday Night at 9pm central time.

[Bojangles]

I think Gausman is the backup guy in case something goes horribly wrong w/ #1 or 2, which are Buxton/Appel. I know that Gausman is on helium watch right now, but I'd be pretty surprised if we took him, especially if Houston takes Appel and Buxton is just dangling there like a low hanging fruit.

[twinsfanstreif]

I'm gonna try and shake things up because you know there will be some wild cards:

Houston- Mark Appel SP

Minnesota- Byron Buxton OF

Seattle- Carlos Correa SS

Baltimore- Kevin Gausman SP

Kansas City- Lucus Giolito SP

Chicago- Courtney Hawkins OF

San Diego- Max Fried SP

Pitt- Mike Zunino C

Miami- Lance McCullers Jr. SP

Colorado- Stryker Trehan C

[PMKI]

1. Houston Astros- Mark Appel SP Stanford

2. Minnesota Twins- Carlos Correa SS Puerto Rico

3. Seattle Mariners- Byron Buxton OF HS Georgia

4. Baltimore Orioles- Kevin Gausman SP LSU

5. Kansas City Royals- Kyle Zimmer SP San Francisco

6. Chicago Cubs- Albert Almora OF HS Florida

7. San Diego Padres- Mike Zunino C Florida

8. Pittsburgh Pirates- Deven Marrero SS Arizona State

9. Miami Marlins- Max Fried SP HS California

10. Colorado Rockies- Andrew Heaney SP Oklahoma State

[Chance]

I just don't want Appel. I got a bad feeling about him. I would like a pitcher so I hope gausman but hard to pass up buxton. Correa would be a nice pick if we didn't waste last years on micheal. It just doesn't make sense if you plan on them both panning out. You can't move one to 2B with Rosario looking like he will be moving up fairly fast.

[twinsfanstreif]

  Chance said:

I just don't want Appel. I got a bad feeling about him. I would like a pitcher so I hope gausman but hard to pass up buxton. Correa would be a nice pick if we didn't waste last years on micheal. It just doesn't make sense if you plan on them both panning out. You can't move one to 2B with Rosario looking like he will be moving up fairly fast.

I'm with you, really bad feeling about Appel. Even if he is ok I see his ceiling as Luke Hochevar, not terrible but not worth a #1 or #2 overall pick.

[PMKI]

  twinsfanstreif said:

I'm with you, really bad feeling about Appel. Even if he is ok I see his ceiling as Luke Hochevar, not terrible but not worth a #1 or #2 overall pick.

Agreed completely!

[Thrylos]

I think that every single mock from the "Big Boys" out there has Appel going to Houston and Buxton to the Twins.

Meanwhile, Carlos Corea is leaving on a jet plane to MN to have a second private workout with the Twins this weekend. Read to that whatever you want... My take is that if he is able to sign for somethink like $5-5.5 instead of the alloted $6.2M, the Twins have a huge win, spending the extra in later picks

[gunnarthor]

  thrylos98 said:

I think that every single mock from the "Big Boys" out there has Appel going to Houston and Buxton to the Twins.

Meanwhile, Carlos Corea is leaving on a jet plane to MN to have a second private workout with the Twins this weekend. Read to that whatever you want... My take is that if he is able to sign for somethink like $5-5.5 instead of the alloted $6.2M, the Twins have a huge win, spending the extra in later picks

Yeah, I think signability will factor a lot into the Twins thinking. Another name to watch for the Twins at 32/42 would be Pierce Johnson. He had some minor arm issues this year but should be a fast to the majors type with modest (#3) upside but likely to reach it. Sorta like what we thought we'd get with Wimmers.

[Puckmen]

I wouldn't take Appel with either the first or second pick, but I think he is going to have a very solid pro career. I saw him pitch at Stanford tonight and he was pretty much unhittable for the first six innings. He was hitting both sides of the plate with 94-95 mph heat and his breaking pitch was moving more than I have ever seen it before. He lost a bit of rhythm after Stanford had a long inning at the plate in the bottom of the 6th, but ended up going the distance while giving up only 4 hits and striking out 11.

 

I hope the Twins take Carlos Correa with the second pick.

[travistwinstalk]

maybe I am missing something becauase i have read a ton of scouting reports about Carlos Correa and I don't see anything special with him. He likely will end up at 3rd base and seems like a reach to me. There is nothing that he does that is exceptional and most drafts he would lucky to be a top 10 pick. I agree signability could be a factor with the pick and it shouldn't be. They should take whoever they feel will be the best player regardless of their price. For my money if you are looking for pure upside you take Buxton without giving it another thought. If you are looking for someone likely to reach their upside and bring something the twins org doesn't have and that is velo from a starter than the pick should be Gausman. In my mind the 2 choices that make sense to me are Buxton or Gausman.

[gunnarthor]

  travistwinstalk said:

maybe I am missing something becauase i have read a ton of scouting reports about Carlos Correa and I don't see anything special with him. He likely will end up at 3rd base and seems like a reach to me. There is nothing that he does that is exceptional and most drafts he would lucky to be a top 10 pick. I agree signability could be a factor with the pick and it shouldn't be. They should take whoever they feel will be the best player regardless of their price. For my money if you are looking for pure upside you take Buxton without giving it another thought. If you are looking for someone likely to reach their upside and bring something the twins org doesn't have and that is velo from a starter than the pick should be Gausman. In my mind the 2 choices that make sense to me are Buxton or Gausman.

I think you're selling Correa's upside short. He's been compared to Tulo. Here's Mayo's write up on him "Defensively, Correa is above average across the board -- range, arm and actions -- leaving no question about his ability to stay at short. He can swing the bat, too, with the potential to be an above-average hitter with outstanding power." Sickels wrote: "Excellent hitter, yet chronologically young for his class. Even if he moves to third base, he's elite. Stellar makeup." Goldstein wrote "A big athletic shortstop with remarkable presence at the plate, quick hands, outstanding bat control and the potential for plus power. He's a plus runner who is graceful in the field and has one of the best infielder arms in the draft. The only concern is with his size, as he’s already 6-foot-3 and approaching 200 pounds, but he has more than enough ability to be a star at third base as well, and one scout believes he'd actually get to the big leagues quicker at that position." Both Sickels and Goldstein rank him #1 in this draft.

 

Additionally, if you could get Correa for 4.5-5 million, you could use that extra million to sign some hard to sign players later in the draft. That said, I'd be happy with any of the names that have been branded about at #2.

[mlhouse]

So, if we passed on Appel or Gausman, where is the pitching going to come from for this team while we wait 6 years for Correa or Buxton to move up the minors? Taking the high upside guy pretty much means we are going to be a 100+ loss team for quite some time.

 

THe problem with Buxton and Correa is that they are not sure things either. So, we really should focus on the college starters all through this draft and hope we can quickly move a couple of them up to the big leagues. Appel may not project to be a #1 starter, but it isn't as if we have a lot of those options on the team or in the minors. Having a solid #2 guy that can pitch 200+ innings and win 15 games would be a major step forward for us.

[Seth Stohs]

Great discussion... I tihnk my pick would be between Gausman and Correa, but as I've said before, if they take one of those two, or Appel, or Zimmer or Buxton or even Giolito, I'd be happy with it.

[J-Dog Dungan]

From all the discussions so far, I would say my pick for the Twins would be Correa, Buxton, or Gausman, even though I really think that Gausman should be first on the Twins list because of their complete and utter lack of starting pitching depth in the minors.

[travistwinstalk]

I wasn't specific i am not against Correa and if the Twins take him ill be on board with it. Any of those top guys would help the Twins farm system which is pretty bad right now. But if I was doing the choosing my pick would be Appel, but I think he is going to Houston so my next option would be Gausman followed by Buxton, Zimmer, and finally Correa.

[PMKI]

If we draft Appel, Buxton, Correa, Gausman, or Zimmer will they become our #2 prospect right away?

[gunnarthor]

  mlhouse said:

So, if we passed on Appel or Gausman, where is the pitching going to come from for this team while we wait 6 years for Correa or Buxton to move up the minors? Taking the high upside guy pretty much means we are going to be a 100+ loss team for quite some time.

No one is a sure thing but, yeah, Correa and Buxton are higher risk than others. Then again, how would we feel if we took Gausman at #2 and then his arm fell off while Correa goes on to become a multiple all-star? I'm also not sure it would take 6 years for Buxton/Correa to make the majors. Both of them would probably be a good fit in the upcoming Sano nucleus.

 

There are other places to get pitching. The Twins could take Brown and Pierce Johnson in the supplemental round. Both are solid pitching prospects, Johnson would be fairly quick to the majors. The Twins will also have a high pick in next years draft as well, so could get pitching there. Finally, they have money to spend on a free agent (yeah, probably not likely but it is a resource they have). I think the team is far enough away that they could take any of these five guys (Buxton, Correa and the three pitchers) and I'd be happy about it. My guess is the Twins take Buxton unless 1) Houston does or 2) Correa agrees to an underslot signing. If Houston takes Buxton and Correa and the Twins don't come to an agreement, I think they'll take Appel/Zimmer, whichever one they have ranked higher. And a draft of, say, Appel/Brown/Johnson would be pretty exciting.

[PMKI]

Everybody labels Appel, Gausman, and Zimmer as possible #2s or #3s. I know that there are very few true #1s but I was just wondering what everyone in our rotation is and what Wimmers and Gibson and any other pitching prospects project as. Thanks!

[gunnarthor]

  PMKI said:

Everybody labels Appel, Gausman, and Zimmer as possible #2s or #3s. I know that there are very few true #1s but I was just wondering what everyone in our rotation is and what Wimmers and Gibson and any other pitching prospects project as. Thanks!

Probably depends on your definition of the numbers. I found this on baseball examiner. Baseball prospectus and america both have similar rankings but you need a subscription, I believe.

#1 Starter: Two plus pitches, average third pitch, plus-plus command, plus makeup

#2 Starter: Two plus pitches, average third pitch, average command, average makeup

#3 Starter: One plus pitch, two average pitches, average command, average makeup

#4 & #5 starters: Average velocity, consistent breaking ball, decent changeup, command of two of the pitches.

 

A plus is a 60 or better, avg is 50, plus plus is 70. Makeup is focus, intensity, etc.

 

All three guys - Appel, Zimmer and Gausman - could become #1 pitchers. I think the knock on them all has been it's not as likely to happen for them as it was for, say, Verlander. Gibson, I think, has one plus pitch and a couple close to plus (55s) so we'll see. He could be a #2 or #3. Keep in mind, before he was hurt, he was likely to go in the top 10 of a pretty solid draft. I have no idea on Wimmers. His change up is supposed to be plus but he's command and now his injury ...

[twinsfanstreif]

  PMKI said:

Everybody labels Appel, Gausman, and Zimmer as possible #2s or #3s. I know that there are very few true #1s but I was just wondering what everyone in our rotation is and what Wimmers and Gibson and any other pitching prospects project as. Thanks!

Gibson is a #2 ceiling but more than likely #3, Wimmers will be a #3 tops. The only one we have that has ace potential is Liriano but that hasn't quite happened. An ace should be dominant with lots of Ks, really an ace should have the potential to have a shut out at any time, anyone who is a pitch to contact pitcher can't be relied on as an ace. The only true Ace we have had in the past 20 years has been Santana, Radke doesn't count.

[Einstein]

Doesn't the fact that Scott Boras represent Mark Appel pretty much rule him out at #2 if Houston passes on him?

[righty8383]

  Einstein said:

Doesn't the fact that Scott Boras represent Mark Appel pretty much rule him out at #2 if Houston passes on him?

No it doesn't

[mbents]

I wish Giolito didn't have the elbow issue at the beginning of the year. From what I've heard, he and Buxton probably have the most upside of anybody in the draft. Keith Law (or was it Mark Simon?) was pretty dismissive of the injury a week or two ago. Is there any way the Twins would pick Giolito #2? In a pretty weak draft, it's not that far-fetched, is it?

[Jeremy Nygaard]

1. Astros – P Mark Appel, Stanford. It comes down to him or Buxton.

2. Twins – OF Byron Buxton, Georgia HS. Correa gaining.

3. Mariners – SS Carlos Correa, Puerto Rico. The Mariners are unpredictable. I think it comes down to Correa or Buxton

4. Orioles – P Kevin Gausman, LSU. Bundy and Gausman could form a lethal combination.

5. Royals – P Kyle Zimmer, San Francisco. Will they pass on Zunino? Will they gamble on Giolito?

6. Cubs – OF Albert Almora, Florida HS. Correa dropping (at this point unlikely) could make this pick interesting.

7. Padres – P Max Fried, California HS. Zunino is a possibility.

8. Pirates – C Mike Zunino, Florida. Zunino could go anywhere, staring at #3. Marrero is a possibility.

9. Marlins – P Andrew Heaney, Oklahoma State. Almora was the first choice.

10. Rockies – OF Courtney Hawkins, Texas HS.

[gunnarthor]

  twinsfanstreif said:

An ace should be dominant with lots of Ks, really an ace should have the potential to have a shut out at any time, anyone who is a pitch to contact pitcher can't be relied on as an ace.

That's not really true. Glavine, Maddux, Halladay, Lee all had cy young seasons/careers without many strike outs. Radke, while not an ace, had as many 5 war seasons as Beckett and Lackey combined.

[travistwinstalk]

If the Twins take Buxton or Correa the plan will be more like Hicks than Sano as I believe they won't sign until the end so won't get much if any play in 2012. So the schedule likely would be if things go right is;

2013 Elizabethton

2014 Beloit

2015 FM

2016 NB

2017 Roch/Twins

 

Could be longer if there is injuries and could be a half a year to a year shorter if they excel. Can't compare him to Mauer as both Buxton and Correa are raw and projects with high upside.

[travistwinstalk]

Absolutely nothing against Rosario but each of these guys would be the Twins number 2 prospect followed by Rosario.

[gunnarthor]

  travistwinstalk said:

If the Twins take Buxton or Correa the plan will be more like Hicks than Sano as I believe they won't sign until the end so won't get much if any play in 2012. So the schedule likely would be if things go right is;

2013 Elizabethton

2014 Beloit

2015 FM

2016 NB

2017 Roch/Twins

 

Could be longer if there is injuries and could be a half a year to a year shorter if they excel. Can't compare him to Mauer as both Buxton and Correa are raw and projects with high upside.

I think every complaint you had could have been used on Mauer. Cold weather player, not sure how he'd do against better competition. Still growing into his body. Also, the signing deadline was moved up to mid July this year so anyone that signs should get some time in the minors this year (although they might let some pitchers rest due to high number of college innings).