Article: Minnesota Twins Top 50 Prospects (Part 2: 31-40)

[Seth Stohs]

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?571-Minnesota-Twins-Top-50-Prospects-(Part-2-31-40)

[Mike Sixel]

Getting anything for Delmon Young was a great move by Bill Smith, which many of us believed then, and believe even more this year. I admit, I didn't think Oliveras had this upside. Guerra is an interesting placement....his floor seems to be middle reliever in the majors for a few years. Moving him to reliever was a great idea, and really, he should be up at some point this year. So, is he only 31st, because he probably isn't a high leverage guy (though he may be), or is he higher because he looks nearly certain to pitch in the majors for a few years, while others above him have less certain futures....?

[Shane Wahl]

E-Town is going to be interesting again this year.

[Seth Stohs]

Guerra is an interesting placement....his floor seems to be middle reliever in the majors for a few years. Moving him to reliever was a great idea, and really, he should be up at some point this year. So, is he only 31st, because he probably isn't a high leverage guy (though he may be), or is he higher because he looks nearly certain to pitch in the majors for a few years, while others above him have less certain futures....?

I admittedly don't rank relievers as high as starters. My reasoning is that a decent 4th starter will throw 160 innings. A great reliever will pitched 60 innings. Now, I fully understand the high-leverage situations some of the time, but not all. I rank a guy I think will be a very good reliever (as I think Oliveros and maybe Guerra can be) around guys that I think could become #3 or #4 SP.

[Mike Sixel]

I would agree with that philosophy, Seth.

[scottz]

I hadn't thought of this before, but if Oliveros throws in the low to mid-90s with a hard slider, is he someone the Twins could possibly think about as a closer in a couple of years? I had no idea he could get it up there with into the mid-90s.

[ashbury]

I admittedly don't rank relievers as high as starters. My reasoning is that a decent 4th starter will throw 160 innings. A great reliever will pitched 60 innings. Now, I fully understand the high-leverage situations some of the time, but not all. I rank a guy I think will be a very good reliever (as I think Oliveros and maybe Guerra can be) around guys that I think could become #3 or #4 SP.

This adds a little further insight to the question I asked you yesterday - it does make it sound aligned with "value" such as in potential trades or for eventual Wins Above Replacement or whatever. Keep the reasoning coming.

[jmlease1]

I didn't realize that Guerra's fastball topped out so low. I really thought his stuff was more consistently in the low 90's, so I may have to re-evaluate my thinking on his ability to succeed in MLB.

 

It will be interesting to see if Oliveros has the control to make the Twins roster in the next year or two. I also wonder if Cuellar will be able to work up a change-up for him at AAA. If he can get a good change to go with the mid-90's fb and a hard slider, he could be quite exciting if he can throw strikes. Fair number of ifs, but some interesting possibilities too.

[Seth Stohs]

I hadn't thought of this before, but if Oliveros throws in the low to mid-90s with a hard slider, is he someone the Twins could possibly think about as a closer in a couple of years? I had no idea he could get it up there with into the mid-90s.

Sure... if he can throw enough strikes.

[Seth Stohs]

Keep the reasoning coming.

Keep the questions coming because I don't always explain my logic well... and it's not that my logic is the correct and only way to think about it. Hopefully others learn from my stuff and create your own top 50 (or top 30) lists based on your logic.

[Seth Stohs]

I didn't realize that Guerra's fastball topped out so low. I really thought his stuff was more consistently in the low 90's, so I may have to re-evaluate my thinking on his ability to succeed in MLB.

That's my biggest concern... Obviously the changeup is his best pitch and the speed differential is what makes that, but if big league hitters are able to sit on the changeup and still react to the fastball, he could struggle.

[Shane Wahl]

I thought Guerra threw a bit harder than that in the past? If true, I wonder what is going on? Also, I wonder if there is a difference in velocity in April-May and July on previously?

[Shane Wahl]

Guerra and Oliveros might be a nice mix in the middle-late relief role though.

[Thrylos]

I was lucky to see both Oliveros and Guerra pitching this Spring at Fort Myers on a side field with a radar gun on the table with the kids who are charting the pitchers. Guerra's 2 seamer is more like 89-91 with occasional 92-93. But he just throws the 2 seamer for some reason. I suspect were he to throw a 4-seamer, that would be higher. Oliveros is somewhat funny: The fastest he throws, the lest control he has. He can throw strikes all day, if he settles at 92-94. Jumping up to 96-97 he is all over the place. Same with the slider. Low-mid 80s is nasty, mid high 80s gotta get out of the way.

[Seth Stohs]

Thrylos, what do you think of the Burris ranking?

[Thrylos]

I like it for the moment . I think that you've seen that I "adopted" Burris and what I wrote about him when I saw him in Spring Training. There are a couple things in play: a. is something that I did not write after I saw him pitch and that is who he reminded me off. Both his FB and (especially that curve.) And still I am not gonna go there (for a good reason. that guy was something and he f'd up that something so it is bad luck). Just think early-mid 80s; similarly built pitcher... And I saw them both pitch up close (that other guy is practically my age) and the similarities are scary. And his raw stuff is that scary good. And it is raw. b. I think that eventually he might start. So I would probably rank him higher at some point (like Salcedo high ) but he still got to get going and get some innings under his belt. So. Yeah. I am that high on the kid. He just gotta get his head in it an work his rear end off.

 

The one I think that you might not have ranked yet and he really deserves to be in the top 50 list, and I am sure that he will be in your off-season rankings is Matt Koch. He is the real thing.

[glunn]

I have been reading these lists for years, and am grateful to Seth and others for all their hard work.

 

Even though most of these players will never play for the Twins, at least they give us glimmers of hope after a soul draining beating by the White Sox tonight.