Are The Twins The Unluckiest Team In Baseball?

[LaBombo]

No, he was not. He was unpredictably injured.

Prior to the 2014 season, Pelfrey hadn't been effective and healthy for three seasons in a row.  It doesn't get much more predictable than that.

 

Also, to the extent that the theory that staying healthy is an athletic skill (albeit difficult to measure, let alone predict) may be true, the Twins scouting and FO bear some degree of responsibility for its deficiency in finding not only talented players, but ones who can stay healthy as well.

 

At any rate, it would appear that fans are increasingly unwilling to accept simple misfortune as a defense for the most thoroughly disappointing season since 2011, or as a defense for the franchise in general, for that matter.

[Boom Boom]

Prior to the 2014 season, Pelfrey hadn't been effective and healthy for three seasons in a row.  It doesn't get much more predictable than that.

 

The Twins were very lucky that Pelfrey was halfway decent for a couple months in 2013.

[Boom Boom]

I don't know how far back we want to take this "luck" matter involving the Twins, but I'm not seeing anyone make the argument that, in some cases, the Twins have been lucky.

 

Hughes and Suzuki have proven to be lucky free agent acquisitions, outperforming all predictions by a significant margin.

 

Sano was signed by the Twins.  At the time, the Twins were not really considered favorites for him. 

 

The Astros drafted somebody else, dropping Buxton right in to the Twins' lucky, lucky hands.  Who would the Twins have drafted if the Astros had decided to take Buxton?  Appel?

 

The Dodgers were willing to give up a decent prospect for Drew Butera. 

 

I could go on... sure they've had their share of bad luck, too, but... consider the Cubs.  How unlucky are they?

[StormJH1]

Yeah...I'm going to complete reject the statement that the Twins are the unluckiest team in baseball, or even "unlucky" compared to other teams.  The only sense in which they have been unlucky is the element of luck in their draft classes from probably 2005 to 2010.  But to say that their drafts failed purely out of luck requires you to say that luck is the only major factor in finding success in the draft, which I don't buy.

 

They drafted poorly and didn't sign impact free agents for over half a decade...how is the team supposed to be successful if those two things are true?

 

The injuries to pitching prospects like Wimmers, Gibson, etc. are hardly atypical in baseball.  You can throw names like Strasburg, Harvey, and Jose Fernandez into the heap of pitchers who have needed Tommy John.  The difference is that those guys were good enough in the first place that they can come back and succeed for plenty of years, even if they lost a couple of ticks off their fastball.

 

I'm not sure what else would even classify as unlucky?  Morneau wasn't unlucky, he was just injury-prone.  The concussion stuff started in 2005 (or earlier), but he had a number of other physical issues (including the neck again this year).  Mauer has had injury issues in 2011, 2013, and 2014, but he's just one guy.  Even when he plays like "Joe Mauer", the team may be good like they were in 2010, or terrible like they were ever since.

 

And so many of the injuries have been mismanaged, it's hard to tell where the poor management supersedes the impact of the injury itself.  I do think the Twins from 2015-2018 will be better than they were the last 4 years, but luck isn't the reason why they were so bad.

 

 

[DocBauer]

I was actually debating to post again on this particular thread, but alas, I chose to do so.

 

Are we so despondent, desperate and jaded by another disappointing season that we simply lose the perspective of an idea proposed that we can't see the tree amidst the forrest?

 

Nobody, including Nick, though he doesn't need me to defend him, is debating poor or questionable decisions by the staff or FO that were wrong in practice or omission. The question is really rather simple, have the Twins been the most unlucky, or amongst so, the past year or so. Not being lucky doesn't absolve poor personnel decisions.

 

But I agree with Nick in principle, as I stated before. Over this season, and the past couple, is there a single team in all of baseball who has had their two best players had their career inhibited or changed by back to back concussion syndrome issues? Add to that their top two prospects, each of whom ranked amongst the top 1-3 or 1-5 prospects in all of milb suffering season long or affecting injuries?

 

How different does the Twins lineup potentially look next season with a lineup that includes Buxton, Dozier, Mauer, Morneau, Sano, Arcia as the top 6? But, of course, failure to plan by the FO is the reason this can't and won't happen. It has nothing to do with a sudden and unexpected series of altering concussions and various injuries.

 

Hey, I'm frustrated too! I want the Twins to win. I want Mauer and Buxton and Sano healthy again. I want May and Meyer to get their shot this season to prepare for next season. I want Hicks to get it, Rosario not to screw up again, Santana and Polanco and Vargas and Walker to keep it up. But a little perspective please.

[chuchadoro]

There has been a lot of discussion regarding injuries and individual performances, we should take a look at the Twins' luck on the field.

 

It's a fine coincidence that Jonah Keri wrote about cluster luck in <href=http://grantland.com/features/mlb-the-30-phillies-marlins-rays-giants-trade-deadline-week-2/>"The 30"</a> this week. The Twins rank #11 in MLB in cluster luck, adding an estimated 5.43 runs on offense by bunching hits together and saving 2.65 runs against by spreading hits out (also, you can add the Rays to the list of teams more unfortunate than the Twins).

 

A quick glance at Baseball Reference also shows the Twins as decidedly not unlucky. They are 17-16 in one run games, 4-4 in extra innings, and have a Pythagorean record identical to their actual record. The Twins have the fourth worst run differential in the AL as well as the fourth worst W-L record.

 

Lost seasons for Buxton and Sano could be argued as unlucky but the impact they were going to have on the 2014 team is questionable. I would certainly argue a number of teams have been hit harder by injuries on their MLB rosters. Texas and Tampa have been rocked by injuries. The Braves lost two starters and a reliever to TJ surgery within a few weeks of each other. The Yankees are down their top four SP, three are done for the year.

 

I'm not going to rehash all the ways the Twins have messed the bed, many have been mentioned in this thread and all have been much discussed previously on TD. I will only say the 2014 Twins are not only not unlucky but their MLB team is a total cluster luck.

 

Editor's note: Way to hyperlink, no hyperlink.

[TheLeviathan]

Great post chuchadoro. If we're going to keep discussing can we pick a range for this bad luck? We seem to be talking about this year, but then every time someone points out worse luck this year someone runs back to something from five years ago (ex. Morneau's injuries) to add to the "Twins are unlucky!" meme.

 

It's a constantly shifting range of luck basically designed to purposely select examples to fit the argument rather than any genuine comparison. Twins have had a couple gut wrenching bits of bad luck to their key prospects.

 

But that is FAR from qualifying for the "worst luck" title around baseball this year. It's normal to have injuries and key setbacks. Can we stop being so "woe are we!", it's not justified.

[Mike Sixel]

I'd argue that every player staying healthy, and every prospect working out, would be extraordinary good luck. One side seems to be arguing that they are unlucky because they had, what to me, seems to be what happens in sports happen to them......

 

Is there some bad luck? yes. Are they extraordinarily unlucky? I don't know.....did they lose Dylan Bundy maybe forever? Did they lose the best or 2nd best pitcher in the NL off their roster in a year where they are contedning? Did they trade their SS, lose the number 1 young player in baseball at SS, lose numerous starting pitchers, and drop from a contender to the worst record in baseball? Did they sign the most expensive FA in the game last year, only to have 2-3 of their top minor league pitchers get hurt? That's off the top of my head, w/o looking at every team in the majors.